Mixed bag of what I think right now before the season start. Place The Points Competition will once again be where we can put our collective feet in our mouths.
All teams have had their chance, testing is over whichever credence we lead to the mantra of 'Testing is Testing', no team can any longer hide behind. I fully expect a number of 'explanations' come Melbourne as to why that particular race or all the early fly-away races is not when they will perform optimally having all the bits and parts on their cars.
Few will argue that Mercedes is way ahead of all others, best engine, arguably best car, and equally arguable best driver pairing. Once past them it is much more of an open book, unless we go to the back of the field.
McLaren Honda is in shambles, the might of Honda as an engine manufacturer may claw something back, may somehow become a reliable engine. But as of right now there is a chance McLaren will complete a season with zero points!! It possible were the Moon and the Stars to align for the Manor entry to outscore McLaren grasping the 10th place bonus in front of them. Do I expect that? Hard to say, I sort of do, but I have a hard time really thinking that for a team like McLaren and an engine manufacturer like Honda this would end up being the case.
Interested in Alonso and how affected he will appear from his concussion, the way it was communicated, the way he was 3 days in the hospital, the way he did not participate in the last test in Barcelona, to me is obvious that he got a real hard conk on the head, we have previously seen drivers getting one (or two) never being quite the same as what they were before, Ralf Schumacher to me was one such driver.
Red Bull and Renault have both failed to look strong or really really competitive, Ricciardo will be the driver he was last season, and will deliver anything the car / engine package is capable of. Kvyat I am not convinced about, me questioning the driver selection of Red Bull, with them having clear knowledge of strengths and weaknesses is likely presumptuous, I just do not think he really matched expectations or performance in the Toro Rosso in 2014. He is obviously a very accomplished driver, he was chosen over and above Vergne, I personally do not have any 'wow' feelings about him. Cynically I see him as a bench warmer for Verstappen, whom Red Bull undoubtedly see something very very very special about. Red Bull have the strength and resources to work hard and effectively as long into the season as they want, winning 3 races last season were 3 more than I expected them capable of then, so thinking them unable to win any this season will likely seem me fall on my face.
Williams is quietly confident, they should be since they should be the second best team based on engine, despite the high marks given to Bottas I have a hard time seeing him as anything else than a Hulkenberg redoux. Fact that Red Bull won 3, and Williams none was Williams under-performing, they should have been second and not spend 2/3rds of the season battling Alonso for 3rd. If they do not finish second this season, they have once again underperformed.
Ferrari appear as if they have made strides, possibly more than any other team, if truly made them even towards Mercedes they have done very good. Engine is clearly better, and from what Raikkonen and Vettel say in public, it is a good solid car. As things stand right now, I see them as the 3rd best team and expect them to be much more of a contender than last year, and I expect both drivers to be that as well. There were a comment somewhere of how we should expect Vettel to come out on top, due to “His work ethic being much better than Kimi's” - Damming words, which reinforce those in the view of Kimi as a driver who have dis-serviced his talent throughout his career.
Middle field is a muddled mess, through organization and financial foundation it must be Red Bull and Toro Rosso to be best, followed by Lotus, Sauber and Force India. The last two I expect to be close to each other, Force India being better at the start of the year, Sauber catching up and passing during the year.
Which then leave Manor and McLaren to make up the rear with Manor being last unless something very weird happens.
The youth revolution... Max Verstappen, the fast track of him Karting => F3 => F1 in 2 years, 1 if you only count Autoracing as part of a battle with Mercedes if we are to believe all we read is something very special. I have no reason to dislike Max, I have no reason once again to presume I know more and better than Red Bull, however I am on record on these board over past years to bemoan the trend of eating and spitting out drivers in their, or just out of their teens. And I stand by that belief. The signing of Max have prompted The FIA to change their rules in order this does not become how F1 drivers are drafted moving forward, the added tightening of the Super License is a correct way to go about that as well.
Even though there are many comments of how some teams will not even make it to Melbourne, the only one who may miss it is Manor GP, about whom there is a weird mix of confirmed sightings, approvals and dead silence.
Roll on 2015 I do not expect an epic or in any way special season.
