The standings after Australia:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Brawn BGP 001 101 101 = Costaz 101 101 = KWSN-DSM 101 101 = The Snowman 101 101 5) Apex 99 99 = DutchQuicksilver 99 99 = jjcale 99 99 = Wander 99 99 9) noikeee 98 98 10) AcuraF1 97 97 = scheivlak 97 97 12) M2000-5 96 96 = mark f1 96 96 14) fisichella_2001 95 95 = HeidfeldsBeard 95 95 16) Makarias 94 94 17) Bleu 91 91 = kismet 91 91 = wattoroos 91 91 20) Barty 90 90 = d_view7 90 90 = JAW97 90 90 23) Grayson 87 87 = MJB5990 87 87 = SpaceHorseParty 87 87
Muahahahah! Way to start a season! Just four perfect scores remain as Sauber rudely refuses to implode before our eyes.
The entries
The following list shows the maximum, average ("popularity poll") and minimum bets on each driver. Column "Diff" is Popularity Poll difference to 2014, which had 19 races scheduled and some drivers that have disappeared.
Name Max Pop Min Diff Hami 413 367 312 +109 Rosb 376 320 280 + 73 Bott 248 196 114 + 81 Ricc 250 187 126 +104 Vett 206 172 120 + 24 Mass 193 156 97 + 32 Räik 256 144 95 - 28 Kvya 185 114 26 +103 Alon 126 87 20 -116 Butt 106 69 15 - 84 Gros 92 57 0 + 11 Mald 79 36 0 + 7 Hülk 67 31 0 - 53 Vers 75 29 7 + 29 Pere 46 22 0 - 39 Sain 38 19 4 + 19 Nasr 28 8 0 + 8 Eric 26 4 0 + 3 Magn 11 1 0 -118 vdGa 10 1 0 + 1 Stev 2 0 0 + 0 King 1 0 0 + 0 Merh 1 0 0 + 0
Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pts Diff Merc 687 +182 Will 352 +113 Ferr 316 - 59 RBR 301 + 70 McLa 157 -115 Lotu 93 + 18 FoIn 53 - 92 STR 48 + 23 Saub 13 - 29 Mano 0 - 7
* Continued Mercedes domination expected
* Fierce three-way battle for runner-up?
* Solid testing for Sauber doesn't make up for contract chaos
If the Popularity Poll turns out to be a 100% correct prediction (already impossible), the final standings would look like this:
Pos Name Tot 1) Grayson 1962 2) Wander 1956 3) DutchQuicksilver 1940 4) JAW97 1939 5) fisichella_2001 1926 6) mark f1 1923 7) wattoroos 1921 8) noikeee 1916 9) HeidfeldsBeard 1909 10) AcuraF1 1901 11) Bleu 1899 12) SpaceHorseParty 1893 13) KWSN-DSM 1892 14) Apex 1888 15) MJB5990 1884 16) Costaz 1876 17) d_view7 1870 = kismet 1870 19) scheivlak 1866 20) The Snowman 1856 21) Makarias 1849 22) Brawn BGP 001 1830 23) Barty 1777 24) jjcale 1741 25) M2000-5 1669
M2000-5 has the least average guess this year again, just like in 2014 and 2012.
How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?
Driver Players Hami 22 Rosb 3
Just two drivers on this list, a bit sad...
Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner Owned <- = -> Ricc 25 0 0 Kvya Gros 23 2 0 Mald Alon 23 0 2 Butt Bott 22 1 2 Mass Hülk 22 1 2 Pere Hami 22 0 3 Rosb Vett 22 0 3 Räik Vers 20 1 4 Sain Stev 1 24 0 Merh ------------------------ Nasr 19 5 1 vdGa Eric 16 7 2 vdGa Nasr 14 7 4 Eric
The Sauber pairing is unpredictable at an unprecedented level. Surprisingly lopsided predictions among all other teams bar Manor.
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Nasr 118,5 34,5 16 Eric 92,6 14,8 15 Hülk 19,5 8,8 1 Sain 10,3 5,1 0 Vett 8,7 7,2 0 Mass 7,7 6,2 0 Hami 6,8 6,0 0 Rosb 5,6 4,8 0 Pere 4,6 2,1 2 Ricc 4,3 3,2 0
Felipe Nasr is the first driver to make it past his 100% expectation mark, congratulations! About one out of four drivers haven't even started the season yet, so that's quick moving!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Rosberg Vettel Massa Nasr * Forecast 500 * Potential 493 * Potential 490 * Potential 487 * Potential 485 * Potential 500 Barty 376 * Forecast 300 * Forecast 240 * Forecast 200 JAW97 413 jjcale 375 scheivlak 206 M2000-5 193 The Snowman 28 mark f1 410 * Forecast 360 wattoroos 205 AcuraF1 184 d_view7 25 M2000-5 408 d_view7 355 M2000-5 203 SpaceHorseParty 181 noikeee 20 MJB5990 405 M2000-5 353 fisichella_2001 197 The Snowman 175 Brawn BGP 001 18 Makarias 401 The Snowman 336 noikeee 197 Makarias 173 jjcale 17 Brawn BGP 001 400 noikeee 330 The Snowman 196 JAW97 169 scheivlak 12 noikeee 382 MJB5990 329 Makarias 191 Brawn BGP 001 168 Costaz 11 Costaz 375 Costaz 320 mark f1 190 wattoroos 165 Apex 10 kismet 375 Grayson 320 Grayson 180 Apex 160 KWSN-DSM 10 d_view7 370 mark f1 320 KWSN-DSM 180 Barty 160 * Current 10 Grayson 370 KWSN-DSM 317 DutchQuicksilver173 Grayson 160 AcuraF1 8 SpaceHorseParty 365 SpaceHorseParty 313 HeidfeldsBeard 168 KWSN-DSM 160 DutchQuicksilver 8 DutchQuicksilver362 HeidfeldsBeard 312 Wander 168 MJB5990 159 M2000-5 8 fisichella_2001 362 kismet 312 MJB5990 167 fisichella_2001 158 Wander 8 Apex 360 DutchQuicksilver311 kismet 166 Bleu 157 HeidfeldsBeard 6 KWSN-DSM 359 Apex 310 d_view7 165 noikeee 155 mark f1 5 jjcale 350 Wander 310 AcuraF1 164 HeidfeldsBeard 150 fisichella_2001 4 Wander 350 wattoroos 307 Brawn BGP 001 163 mark f1 150 wattoroos 4 HeidfeldsBeard 346 JAW97 305 SpaceHorseParty 159 Wander 150 JAW97 3 Bleu 345 Makarias 303 Bleu 158 Costaz 149 Makarias 3 AcuraF1 344 AcuraF1 302 JAW97 157 DutchQuicksilver138 Bleu 2 Barty 341 Brawn BGP 001 302 jjcale 151 scheivlak 131 kismet 1 scheivlak 335 fisichella_2001 301 Costaz 145 d_view7 125 Barty 0 wattoroos 330 scheivlak 290 Barty 125 jjcale 125 Grayson 0 The Snowman 312 Bleu 280 Apex 120 kismet 97 MJB5990 0 * Current 25 * Current 18 * Current 15 * Current 12 SpaceHorseParty 0
Top five finishes are unlikely to be the norm for Nasr, but the potential for a 100% surprise is overwhelming. Vettel and Massa might start climbing up their lists before the halfway point of the season, while it is mathematically impossible for the Mercedes drivers due to high expectations..
Guesses on P6-P10:
Ricciardo Hülkenberg Ericsson Sainz Perez * Potential 483 * Potential 481 * Potential 479 * Potential 477 * Potential 476 jjcale 250 * Forecast 120 * Forecast 80 * Forecast 40 kismet 46 Makarias 229 kismet 67 Barty 26 The Snowman 38 Bleu 40 AcuraF1 224 Bleu 63 Costaz 19 Brawn BGP 001 33 jjcale 35 Barty 218 jjcale 47 KWSN-DSM 10 Makarias 28 mark f1 35 DutchQuicksilver216 scheivlak 45 Brawn BGP 001 8 jjcale 27 SpaceHorseParty 33 HeidfeldsBeard 215 KWSN-DSM 44 The Snowman 8 SpaceHorseParty 27 Apex 30 Costaz 204 Apex 43 mark f1 5 Barty 25 KWSN-DSM 30 scheivlak 200 mark f1 40 Wander 5 fisichella_2001 25 Wander 30 Bleu 195 fisichella_2001 36 DutchQuicksilver 4 Grayson 25 fisichella_2001 27 JAW97 192 Grayson 35 fisichella_2001 4 scheivlak 25 scheivlak 27 Wander 191 Wander 35 Makarias 4 kismet 24 Grayson 25 noikeee 190 HeidfeldsBeard 31 * Current 4 Apex 23 Makarias 25 kismet 189 Barty 30 kismet 3 Costaz 22 wattoroos 25 Apex 180 MJB5990 28 AcuraF1 2 KWSN-DSM 20 Brawn BGP 001 24 KWSN-DSM 180 JAW97 27 Apex 2 wattoroos 20 HeidfeldsBeard 22 mark f1 180 Makarias 27 Bleu 2 JAW97 19 * Forecast 20 wattoroos 176 Brawn BGP 001 26 HeidfeldsBeard 2 Wander 16 MJB5990 19 fisichella_2001 175 SpaceHorseParty 26 jjcale 2 mark f1 15 noikeee 15 d_view7 170 wattoroos 26 M2000-5 1 DutchQuicksilver 14 The Snowman 15 Grayson 170 AcuraF1 20 noikeee 1 Bleu 13 JAW97 13 MJB5990 166 The Snowman 20 d_view7 0 MJB5990 12 DutchQuicksilver 12 SpaceHorseParty 162 DutchQuicksilver 18 Grayson 0 AcuraF1 10 Costaz 9 * Forecast 160 noikeee 17 JAW97 0 d_view7 8 AcuraF1 6 Brawn BGP 001 135 Costaz 9 MJB5990 0 noikeee 8 M2000-5 5 The Snowman 130 M2000-5 8 scheivlak 0 HeidfeldsBeard 6 * Current 1 M2000-5 126 * Current 6 SpaceHorseParty 0 M2000-5 4 Barty 0 * Current 8 d_view7 0 wattoroos 0 * Current 2 d_view7 0
Aside from Sauber, Force India seems to have been underestimated this year. But this was hardly the most representative of races, was it.
The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Spanish GP.
