So the big question will be whether Will actually gets out in qualifying let alone makes the race.
To be clear, if Will attempts to qualify, that is he gets out on track for qualifying, then he is our man for the race whether or not he qualifies (his result would be 0). If Will doesn't, but his team mate does, then he is our man. If neither get out in qualifying, then Felipe Nasr is it. Clear...?
So, this makes it a bit tricky doesn't. Go low on the basis that Will does get on track but not much further. Or assume they won't get out and Felipe is our man and he goes long just as he did in Australia.
My guess for Malaysia is 5 laps.
Good Luck!