174 replies to this topic

[sopa]

I certainly have to eat my words whatever I have written!

 

Ferrari will finish this year second in constructors, and chances are that pretty comfortably unless they have a major mess-up in car development.

 

But beating Mercedes is not going to happen all that often though. Guess hot conditions and tyre wear characteristics of each car helped. But expectations have been far exceeded.

[jurchenking]

I'll be cautious and treat this victory as a one-off.  The championship is a long way off.  Races are for Mercedes to lose, as we've seen today.

 

I hope Ferrari doesn't go loud-mouthing about championship ambitions this season and so on....  Just keep the head down and improve the car continuously. 

[garoidb]

So, can Ferrari (in the form of Vettel?) contend for the WDC this year? 

 

 

That will depend on the relative development of Ferrari and Mercedes.

 

Kimi just as much chance as Vettel too, just needs to leave the bad luck behind.

 

Agreed, hence the question mark after Vettel in my question - could be Kimi.

[GoldenColt]

Well done Ferrari, well done Vettel, well done everyone who thought they might have a chance.

 

I'll get my coat and eat my hat.

 

 

[baddog]

This thread turned out to be a rich vein of humour didnt it?

[Deeq]

This thread turned out to be a rich vein of humour didnt it?

Best ever! so delicious.

Eldorado! 

[Peter Perfect]

Fair play to Ferrari, didn't think it would be possible for the season never mind the second race! Amazing turn-around from the Oz. 

[sopa]

So it turns out the 1998 comparison was apt, and it happened even sooner!

 

The comparison is probably apt in terms of tyre performance. Even though everyone has the same tyres now as opposed to tyre war back then.

 

But what I mean is that Ferrari certainly treats tyres well or should I say more gently than Mercedes in the heat. Which is a carry-over from past years, as Merc used to struggle with tyre wear a lot in 2011-13, especially in heat.

[steferrari]

Edited by steferrari, 07 April 2015 - 11:17.

[sopa]

Okay, now that the fresh emotions from the race are a bit settled down.

 

In sports for everyone there are form fluctuations, "highs", "lows" and sort of average. There are different reasons for "highs" and "lows", in F1 largely dependent on how each circuit and conditions suit a car and development cycles - whether something has been freshly introduced on the car or upgrade will take time.

 

Sometimes some race results are a huge surprise. They are like "outliers" in the form book. Like 2012 wet Malaysia, where Ferrari and Sauber absolutely hit their sweetspot and were 1st and 2nd with McLaren and Red Bull struggling somewhat.

 

We remember in early 2013 also Ferrari beat Red Bull on merit a few times early in the season by the virtue of better tyre degradation. In the end they were no match to Red Bull over a year. I suspect something similar might be happening this year.

 

My take is that Malaysia 2015 was also a bit of an outlier and surprise to many. For Mercedes it was a relative "low" in the list of performance averages, while for Ferrari it was a "high". So that's how we got the net result - that "on a good day" in hot conditions somebody might beat Mercedes in a straight fight. 

 

But now I am of the view that the average performance of Ferrari should exceed the one of Williams. While I am still uncertain about, how will Red Bull improve during the season. I am certain they haven't shown all their cards yet. Like everyone expects McLaren to improve (another matter is how much), same applies to RBR.

[ConsiderAndGo]

I believe based on some of my comments in this thread from earlier on, I'm going to be eating an enormous portion of humble pie later on!

[DrF]

Not every race will have such high tyre wear and concomitant strategy blunders for Merc which helped Ferrari.

But the speed is there and the drivers are comfortable in the car, so let's see what happens in China.

[YoungGun]

Yup:

"Anzi, Seb e Kimi sono convinti che nella seconda metà del campionato riusciranno a battere la Mercedes. E forse più di una volta."

 

Translated: Seb and Kimi are convinced that they'll be able to beat Mercedes in the second half of the season. Maybe more then just once.

 

Well ahead of their predictions.   

[garagetinkerer]

Have you seen that interview? That question was a wee bit moronic, and the answer was priceless. The only thing which will have made it better is if he asked interviewer to stop trolling him.

 

As a tifoso, as pleased as i'm, i'll admit that it may happen a couple of times or so, where track temps may be high enough, tyres may be soft. However, straight fight? No hope in hell. However, i would love to see them give it a try.

Edited by garagetinkerer, 29 March 2015 - 22:57.

[garagetinkerer]

Soon you may hear complaints again how he wins with the best cars

Edited by garagetinkerer, 29 March 2015 - 22:58.

[Jvr]

The Ferrari Duo knew their #### and what they were talking about.

[Docc]

Edited by Docc, 30 March 2015 - 00:44.

[Wuzak]

Not every race will have such high tyre wear and concomitant strategy blunders for Merc which helped Ferrari.

But the speed is there and the drivers are comfortable in the car, so let's see what happens in China.

 

While I agree that the conditions in Malaysia were unique and contributed to Ferrari's success, I would say that the Mercedes "strategy blunders" were because of the race pace exhibited on Friday by Seb (on hard tyres) and Kimi (on mediums).

 

The gap from when Hamilton was clear in 2nd (lap 10) to the start of the last lap was nearly identical - ever so slightly going up. So the race win was no fluke.

 

And Mercedes were under pressure for the first time in a long time - and that may have contributed to their errors.

 

I'd also like to hypothesise that had Hamilton not pitted for tyres during the safety car he would have had to shortly after in any case, and still done 3 stops.

Edited by Wuzak, 30 March 2015 - 01:24.

[CoolBreeze]

So...

[GoldenColt]

Have you seen that interview?

 

I have indeed.

[garoidb]

One interesting aspect of this, if Ferrari can get into the mix for the WDC title, is how Mercedes (Toto, for example) will handle being under external competitive pressure at the same time as allowing their drivers to race one another. Ricciardo didn't quite get close enough to put them under serious pressure last year. 

[George Costanza]

I admit I was wrong...

 

Well done Ferrari.

[JuanDelaCruz]

I wonder wheres BJHF1 now..

 

[Kelateboy]

Have you seen that interview? That question was a wee bit moronic, and the answer was priceless. The only thing which will have made it better is if he asked interviewer to stop trolling him.

 

As a tifoso, as pleased as i'm, i'll admit that it may happen a couple of times or so, where track temps may be high enough, tyres may be soft. However, straight fight? No hope in hell. However, i would love to see them give it a try.

 

There won't be many places where the track temperature would hit 64C with really abrasive track surface. Malaysia is unique and that was why Pirelli brought in their 2 hardest tyre compounds there.

 

For Ferrari to have a good chance of winning GPs, Pirelli's tyre choices have to be conservative. For instance, medium/soft combo in Spain might be a preferred choice for Ferrari rather than the usual hard/medium choice of recent years. I believe Ferrari's only realistic chance of challenging Mercedes this year would be on circuits which are hard on tyres, and where the required pit stops are 2-3.

 

Where the tyres are sturdy like Australia GP, Ferrari would still be the 2nd best team (that is how much they have improved this year), but realistically, they have no shot of challenging Mercedes for a race win based on pure/raw pace. 

[Wuzak]

For Ferrari to have a good chance of winning GPs, Pirelli's tyre choices have to be conservative. For instance, medium/soft combo in Spain might be a preferred choice for Ferrari rather than the usual hard/medium choice of recent years. I believe Ferrari's only realistic chance of challenging Mercedes this year would be on circuits which are hard on tyres, and where the required pit stops are 2-3.

 

I think you mean aggressive.