20 replies to this topic

[mathewking21]

With the advantage that Mercedes currently holds, do any of you think that they could get away with not developing the car through the year and still maintain their advantage? Or maybe stop developing the car say midway through the season to focus on next years? In a way such an advantage benefits Mercedes because it also has the luxury of lowering development costs since they're already 1.3 seconds/lap ahead. Even a half second/lap advantage is huge, but maybe it would make Mercedes burn up it's tyres and even things out a bit.

[ninetyzero]

Enter Ferrari fans in 3..2...1...

[sergey1308]

The season only has started. If they stop developing now they definitely suck.

 

There are only 2 races behind. It is to early to say they are 1.3 seconds/lap faster, may be more or less.

Edited by sergey1308, 07 April 2015 - 08:41.

[Seanspeed]

Enter Ferrari fans in 3..2...1...

You don't have to be a Ferrari fan to see that they could possibly pose a threat.

Anyways, there's no real advantage to stopping development. It would save them money, but they're a major manufacturer that have already budgeted for the season. And halting development for 2015 could hurt their 2016 campaign as they are unlikely to be going full redesign anytime soon.

Edited by Seanspeed, 07 April 2015 - 08:42.

[ninetyzero]

You don't have to be a Ferrari fan to see that they could possibly pose a threat.

 

True, I just figured that Ferrari fans would have a strong opinion on the subject, especially as some of them seem to think they have already won it...

[Seanspeed]

True, I just figured that Ferrari fans would have a strong opinion on the subject, especially as some of them seem to think they have already won it...

No, no Ferrari fans think they have already won it. Don't know what you're talking about.

[Gilles4Ever]

Instead of discussing fans try discussing the topic, if you cannot or will not contribute to discussing the topic please refrain from posting.

[ninetyzero]

Some people got slightly carried away after Seb's win, that's all. And in answer to the original question- No don't be ridiculous, Ferrari would definitely win if Merc stopped development. 

[JdB]

It would be ridiculous if Mercedes would stop developing their car, it's a good, fast car, naturally they'll continue developing it. The only team that would stop developing their current car is a team that figured out this year's car is rubbish, and no matter how much money you throw at it, it won't be any good. But to be honest, i don't think there is any team that did such a terrible job. Most cars are worth developing, this question should be asked when half the season is gone, not after 2 races.

 

grtz.Jeroen

[The July Plot]

They are 2 races in and have lost 50% of them...I would suggest that the car is still worth developing.     

[ardbeg]

As far as I know, the regs for next season are not dramatically different and Merc's current car is not a disaster, so why would they stop developing it? Next years car will be an evolution of what they have now and almost everything they do during the season will be done with next season in mind.

[Timstr11]

With the advantage that Mercedes currently holds, 

 

I'm assuming you missed the Malaysian GP.

You might want to do some reading on how it unfolded.

[SwedeForceOne]

No way could  Mercedes maintain the advantage this year while stopping development, best case scenario they win the WDC WCC by a very small margin but even that, I feel, is unlikely having read Ferraris Allison talk in an upbeat way about coming developments.

In 2014 I think Merc would have gotten away with it though.

[sopa]

Should have asked this question last year. 2015 is perhaps a bit too close for comfort, certainly at this stage.

 

We remember one extreme case from 2009, when Brawn GP almost stopped developing the car, but that due to budget constraints. This resulted in them having a comfortable advantage in Australia to barely getting into points in many races later in the season. Though they still won the titles. Of course it was the first year into new regs, so development pace was fast.

[Nathan]

How much of 'developing' a 12 race old car comes from learning how to set it up?

[KingTiger]

Why stop development when next year's car will benefit from it? 

[EarnardBeccelstone]

Two races in and already people are writing off the season.

 

If I was a team director, I'd be waiting until at least after Monaco (sixth race) before deciding whether I had enough of an advantage in hand to leave the car mostly 'as is' and move onto 2016 development.

 

You have to wait until after the end of the initial fly-aways before evaluating your pace compared to the competition. Most of the big in-season performance gains are seen in the month or two following the return to Europe. That three-week gap between Bahrain and Spain and getting the car back into the UK factories is pretty crucial to development for a season.

 

If you start new car development before Canada, that gives you an eight to nine month development window prior to the start of the next season.

[ronsingapore]

With the advantage that Mercedes currently holds, do any of you think that they could get away with not developing the car through the year and still maintain their advantage? Or maybe stop developing the car say midway through the season to focus on next years? In a way such an advantage benefits Mercedes because it also has the luxury of lowering development costs since they're already 1.3 seconds/lap ahead. Even a half second/lap advantage is huge, but maybe it would make Mercedes burn up it's tyres and even things out a bit.

 

I feel that in such a current situation, what we have is Mercedes 's technological research into the new engines aligining perfectly with the new technical rules.

 

However, increases in speed can also come from changes in other engine rules such as changes in engine, brakes or aerodynamics. just imagine what would happen if all restrictions on ground effects are lifted; or different changes in allowing more varieties of engines, say allowing to put in V12 engines (yeah, I know, it is ridiculous), alongside the current power units.

 

That said, I feel that for the 2015 season, Mercedes will maintain a clear advantage without further investments in developing the car, not because they have a strong lead, but because virtually every other single team is too far behind.

[Alexandros]

With the advantage that Mercedes currently holds, do any of you think that they could get away with not developing the car through the year and still maintain their advantage? Or maybe stop developing the car say midway through the season to focus on next years? In a way such an advantage benefits Mercedes because it also has the luxury of lowering development costs since they're already 1.3 seconds/lap ahead. Even a half second/lap advantage is huge, but maybe it would make Mercedes burn up it's tyres and even things out a bit.

 

F1 of 2015 is not F1 of 90's or 2000's when teams could get rather predictable results based on their development.

 

What does that mean in practical terms?

 

Car development today is a gamble. You can't bank on anything getting you more time/lap even if it is a radical new concept that should theoretically pay out.

 

With not much testing time to find optimal configurations and components to maximize things like tires, development can even go backwards when, on paper, things should be better. Look at how Mclaren, the fastest 2012 car, went to nowhere in 2013. Look at how Mercedes turned it around in '14, as did Ferrari in '15 against all odds. These are not bad teams, but at some points they just have issues with how the car behaves and it's not so much a design problem as something that they later find out on track. Or sometimes they get positively surprised because they unexpectedly hit a sweet spot, and then the designers get all the credit for being geniuses or something. Was it Ron that said the 2012 car was far better than our calculations and the '13 one far worse? Sometimes they have no clue what they are gonna get. And they have too little track time (testing) to fix things if the performance is lacking.

[sergey1308]

I feel that in such a current situation, what we have is Mercedes 's technological research into the new engines aligining perfectly with the new technical rules.

 

However, increases in speed can also come from changes in other engine rules such as changes in engine, brakes or aerodynamics. just imagine what would happen if all restrictions on ground effects are lifted; or different changes in allowing more varieties of engines, say allowing to put in V12 engines (yeah, I know, it is ridiculous), alongside the current power units.

 

That said, I feel that for the 2015 season, Mercedes will maintain a clear advantage without further investments in developing the car, not because they have a strong lead, but because virtually every other single team is too far behind.

You are mistaken! Brawn GP in 2009 season start had a great advantage, greater than Merc nowadays, but because of lack of money they couldn't develop the car as Red Bull. Do you remember what happened. They won the championship due to big advantage they had at the beginning, they scored a lot of points. But nevertheless in the second half of the season Red Bull and McLaren overtook Brawn GP. The conclusion is if you stopped development you can lose no matter how faster you were.

[Mandzipop]

If Mercedes started the season 2 seconds clear then I could see them not developing the car and possibly winning both championships. However, nobody is sure how far in front they are. Calculations are all over the place, however the consensus appears to be between 2 and 7 tenths in front of Ferrari. That is nowhere near enough. The PU updates alone from Ferrari could wipe that out that advantage. Whilst there is a chance that they could be beaten then they won't. It isn't like they can't afford it.

 

The Brawn situation was different. They had more in terms of advantages over Red Bull than Mercedes have over Ferrari. Those are Seb being a relative rookie and Red Bull unreliability. Mercedes do not have the luxury of either Seb or Kimi being rookies. Ferrari reliability is an unknown, but recent history goes in it's favour.