8 replies to this topic

[turssi]

So I did this a few times in the past, putting the results in a table and then summing and multiplying to see where the guys are heading come end of season :-)

 

This time I'll use the following formula: points average from the latest 03 races x remaining races + points from the races so far.

 

Also to keep the focus in it I'll just do 04 posts:

 

Bahrain update, to check how the fly-away races went down.

Canada update, to see how the euro updates have worked after three races.

Monza update, to check where everyone is when leaving Europe behind.

Sochi update, the see how the Singapore updates have worked after three races.

 

Also, it's just for fun and as I wrote above, based on a simple formula extrapolating the race results.

[turssi]

[sergey1308]

I see that it is just for fun but I can't understand why are you doing this. Every race is unpredictable and we can't forecast anything simply multiply average points by number of races

[turssi]

Well, one reason I do this is to reflect on the talking points of the moment. Like the one where Lotus claimed to have the 4th fastest car. By the looks it might even be, but they can forget WCC 4th when all their points come from just one pilot. Also the good run by Vettel/Ferrari in the last three races means that if they keep it up Rosberg might end up losing WDC 2nd this season. The WCC top three looks pretty clear already as we probably knew already and Felipe Massa can't really suffer those car problems if he wants to shine against Valtteri.

So I use this to visualize certain moments in time and to contextualize the news items that easily lose their meaning once they get lost in time.

So that's a part of it for me, sergey1308.

[Jimisgod]

You'd be a fool to bet STR would end with more points than Sauber now...

[turssi]

You'd be a fool to bet STR would end with more points than Sauber now...

No way with the current Renault PU :'(

And as the same goes for RBR, one could guess that Lotus might just get that WCC 4th even with Pastor in the hot seat.

Edited by turssi, 22 April 2015 - 13:32.

[SUPRAF1]

I think one fundamental issue that will come into play here would be the grid penalties some teams will face in the latter half of the season due to over-usage of power units. 

[kevinracefan]

extrapolating the points excludes the season long development race..

F1 is 100000000% about the season long development race...

[turssi]

extrapolating the points excludes the season long development race..

F1 is 100000000% about the season long development race...

For sure, as demonstrated in recent years by RBR and their Singapore upgrades, that took them to multiple championships from a chasing position.

I try to reflect this in 2015 by doing updates that are timed three races forward from Spain and Singapore to view how things change after these races that traditionally are used to introduce big upgrades.

Sure there are others as well, even regarding tyres or PU's, as well as the always present and changing prime and option defitions to keep the show alive, but what can I say? To get the championships in F1 is to hit a moving target in changing conditions :-)