The standings after Austria:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Brawn BGP 001 808 101 = The Snowman 808 101 3) jjcale 805 101 4) KWSN-DSM 802 101 = noikeee 802 100 6) Wander 800 101 7) Apex 799 101 = scheivlak 799 101 9) DutchQuicksilver 798 100 10) mark f1 797 101 11) fisichella_2001 795 101 12) Makarias 794 101 13) HeidfeldsBeard 792 101 14) Bleu 791 101 = kismet 791 101 = wattoroos 791 101 17) AcuraF1 790 99 = JAW97 790 101 19) Costaz 787 88 = Grayson 787 101 = SpaceHorseParty 787 101 22) MJB5990 781 95 23) d_view7 771 91 = M2000-5 771 89 25) Barty 750 93A few points dropped here and there, more mayhem around the corner.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Nasr 189,5 55,2 20 Eric 115,7 18,5 18 Vett 69,9 58,0 0 Pere 59,3 27,7 6 Hülk 58,6 26,5 4 Räik 50,1 28,0 0 Rosb 49,7 42,2 0 Sain 46,2 23,1 4 Hami 46,1 40,8 0 Mass 39,8 32,0 0 Vers 34,4 13,2 2 Bott 34,2 26,9 0 Mald 33,7 15,0 2 Gros 29,7 18,3 1 Ricc 19,3 14,3 0 Kvya 16,6 10,2 0 Butt 5,8 3,7 0It's anyone's guess who'll be next past the 100% expectation mark. The Saubers haven't got much done once they got there...
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Rosberg Hamilton Massa Vettel Bottas * Potential 434 * Potential 444 * Potential 337 * Potential 395 * Potential 342 * Forecast 378 JAW97 413 M2000-5 193 * Forecast 285 Costaz 248 Barty 376 mark f1 410 AcuraF1 184 scheivlak 206 d_view7 240 jjcale 375 M2000-5 408 SpaceHorseParty 181 wattoroos 205 M2000-5 236 d_view7 355 MJB5990 405 The Snowman 175 M2000-5 203 Apex 230 M2000-5 353 * Forecast 401 Makarias 173 fisichella_2001 197 Barty 230 The Snowman 336 Makarias 401 JAW97 169 noikeee 197 AcuraF1 218 noikeee 330 Brawn BGP 001 400 Brawn BGP 001 168 The Snowman 196 fisichella_2001 210 MJB5990 329 noikeee 382 wattoroos 165 Makarias 191 Grayson 210 Costaz 320 Costaz 375 Apex 160 mark f1 190 The Snowman 208 Grayson 320 kismet 375 Barty 160 Grayson 180 JAW97 207 mark f1 320 d_view7 370 Grayson 160 KWSN-DSM 180 Brawn BGP 001 201 KWSN-DSM 317 Grayson 370 KWSN-DSM 160 DutchQuicksilver173 Bleu 200 SpaceHorseParty 313 SpaceHorseParty 365 MJB5990 159 HeidfeldsBeard 168 SpaceHorseParty 199 HeidfeldsBeard 312 DutchQuicksilver362 fisichella_2001 158 Wander 168 noikeee 192 kismet 312 fisichella_2001 362 Bleu 157 MJB5990 167 scheivlak 190 DutchQuicksilver311 Apex 360 noikeee 155 kismet 166 DutchQuicksilver188 Apex 310 KWSN-DSM 359 HeidfeldsBeard 150 d_view7 165 mark f1 185 Wander 310 jjcale 350 mark f1 150 AcuraF1 164 Wander 185 wattoroos 307 Wander 350 Wander 150 Brawn BGP 001 163 wattoroos 185 JAW97 305 HeidfeldsBeard 346 Costaz 149 SpaceHorseParty 159 HeidfeldsBeard 172 Makarias 303 Bleu 345 * Forecast 147 Bleu 158 Makarias 170 AcuraF1 302 AcuraF1 344 DutchQuicksilver138 JAW97 157 MJB5990 164 Brawn BGP 001 302 Barty 341 scheivlak 131 jjcale 151 KWSN-DSM 160 fisichella_2001 301 scheivlak 335 d_view7 125 Costaz 145 * Forecast 159 scheivlak 290 wattoroos 330 jjcale 125 Barty 125 kismet 154 Bleu 280 The Snowman 312 kismet 97 Apex 120 jjcale 114 * Current 159 * Current 169 * Current 62 * Current 120 * Current 67Vettel equals Apex's guess! Rosberg's forecast predicts a 100% surprise!
Guesses on P6-P10:
Hülkenberg Maldonado Verstappen Perez Ricciardo * Potential 293 * Potential 287 * Potential 285 * Potential 288 * Potential 311 kismet 67 SpaceHorseParty 79 scheivlak 75 kismet 46 jjcale 250 Bleu 63 M2000-5 65 jjcale 73 Bleu 40 Makarias 229 jjcale 47 HeidfeldsBeard 57 Brawn BGP 001 55 jjcale 35 AcuraF1 224 scheivlak 45 The Snowman 52 Makarias 48 mark f1 35 Barty 218 KWSN-DSM 44 KWSN-DSM 51 Bleu 35 SpaceHorseParty 33 DutchQuicksilver216 Apex 43 AcuraF1 50 Grayson 35 * Forecast 31 HeidfeldsBeard 215 * Forecast 43 Apex 45 The Snowman 32 Apex 30 Costaz 204 mark f1 40 mark f1 45 wattoroos 31 KWSN-DSM 30 scheivlak 200 fisichella_2001 36 Wander 42 fisichella_2001 30 Wander 30 Bleu 195 Grayson 35 Grayson 40 mark f1 30 fisichella_2001 27 JAW97 192 Wander 35 scheivlak 40 kismet 27 scheivlak 27 Wander 191 HeidfeldsBeard 31 DutchQuicksilver 35 Apex 25 Grayson 25 noikeee 190 Barty 30 JAW97 34 JAW97 25 Makarias 25 kismet 189 MJB5990 28 d_view7 32 * Forecast 24 wattoroos 25 Apex 180 JAW97 27 wattoroos 30 SpaceHorseParty 24 Brawn BGP 001 24 KWSN-DSM 180 Makarias 27 * Forecast 29 DutchQuicksilver 20 HeidfeldsBeard 22 mark f1 180 Brawn BGP 001 26 Costaz 28 HeidfeldsBeard 20 MJB5990 19 wattoroos 176 SpaceHorseParty 26 Bleu 25 KWSN-DSM 20 noikeee 15 fisichella_2001 175 wattoroos 26 Brawn BGP 001 25 MJB5990 20 The Snowman 15 d_view7 170 AcuraF1 20 kismet 25 noikeee 20 JAW97 13 Grayson 170 The Snowman 20 Makarias 25 d_view7 19 * Current 13 MJB5990 166 DutchQuicksilver 18 jjcale 23 Wander 19 DutchQuicksilver 12 SpaceHorseParty 162 * Current 18 fisichella_2001 22 AcuraF1 18 Costaz 9 Brawn BGP 001 135 noikeee 17 noikeee 13 Barty 10 AcuraF1 6 The Snowman 130 Costaz 9 * Current 12 * Current 10 M2000-5 5 M2000-5 126 M2000-5 8 MJB5990 6 M2000-5 8 Barty 0 * Forecast 86 d_view7 0 Barty 0 Costaz 7 d_view7 0 * Current 36Some interesting tables to look at right here. What a great month this has been for Hülkenberg!
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- mark f1 1686,4 26,1 KWSN-DSM 1664,1 32,7 M2000-5 1658,6 -11,4 noikeee 1643,5 10,5 MJB5990 1632,3 2,0 Grayson 1620,5 25,5 The Snowman 1613,5 17,6 Wander 1612,4 23,9 Makarias 1608,0 14,1 wattoroos 1606,1 20,7 kismet 1599,3 8,3 fisichella_2001 1598,0 20,0 scheivlak 1597,0 17,0 Brawn BGP 001 1591,6 19,9 JAW97 1590,5 12,2 d_view7 1590,1 -3,7 DutchQuicksilver 1589,1 7,7 SpaceHorseParty 1584,4 18,7 jjcale 1578,9 21,7 HeidfeldsBeard 1552,4 20,8 Bleu 1549,3 33,8 Costaz 1536,1 11,6 Barty 1532,8 -7,3 Apex 1530,3 34,8 AcuraF1 1519,4 14,9A new leader in the forecasts! M2000-5 doesn't love the points going to the Force Indias, not from this game's perspective at least.