The standings after Hungary:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Brawn BGP 001 1010 101 2) The Snowman 1006 101 3) KWSN-DSM 1002 99 4) scheivlak 1000 100 5) mark f1 998 100 = Wander 998 97 7) jjcale 997 91 8) fisichella_2001 996 100 9) Makarias 995 100 = noikeee 995 98 11) kismet 992 100 = wattoroos 992 100 13) HeidfeldsBeard 991 98 14) Bleu 990 98 15) DutchQuicksilver 989 98 16) Grayson 988 100 17) SpaceHorseParty 987 99 18) JAW97 986 97 19) AcuraF1 981 96 20) MJB5990 980 98 21) d_view7 961 97 22) Apex 960 75 23) Costaz 954 74 24) M2000-5 933 70 25) Barty 897 58
An interesting race result, and the scores are spreading out more and more!
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Nasr 189,5 55,2 20 Eric 138,9 22,2 20 Vett 93,1 77,3 7 Hülk 78,1 35,3 7 Vers 75,7 28,9 11 Pere 68,4 31,9 7 Rosb 56,6 48,0 0 Hami 55,1 48,8 0 Räik 52,9 29,6 0 Mass 47,5 38,1 0 Sain 46,2 23,1 4 Gros 40,1 24,7 1 Kvya 39,3 24,2 1 Bott 39,3 30,9 0 Mald 33,7 15,0 2 Ricc 27,3 20,3 0 Alon 12,6 8,7 0 Butt 8,7 5,6 0
Vettel gets quite close to his expectation mark and very much looks like a 100% surprise down the road. Perhaps the only one this season?
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2015 this is 25.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Vettel Kvyat Ricciardo Verstappen Alonso * Potential 385 * Potential 270 * Potential 276 * Potential 247 * Potential 236 * Forecast 304 jjcale 185 jjcale 250 scheivlak 75 Brawn BGP 001 126 scheivlak 206 MJB5990 154 Makarias 229 jjcale 73 MJB5990 114 wattoroos 205 HeidfeldsBeard 138 AcuraF1 224 Brawn BGP 001 55 kismet 113 M2000-5 203 Makarias 135 Barty 218 Makarias 48 Apex 110 fisichella_2001 197 DutchQuicksilver132 DutchQuicksilver216 * Forecast 42 fisichella_2001 106 noikeee 197 wattoroos 131 HeidfeldsBeard 215 Bleu 35 HeidfeldsBeard 106 The Snowman 196 kismet 130 Costaz 204 Grayson 35 Bleu 105 Makarias 191 Costaz 126 scheivlak 200 The Snowman 32 wattoroos 104 mark f1 190 fisichella_2001 124 Bleu 195 wattoroos 31 Costaz 99 Grayson 180 noikeee 121 JAW97 192 fisichella_2001 30 Wander 99 KWSN-DSM 180 Apex 115 Wander 191 mark f1 30 noikeee 98 DutchQuicksilver173 Wander 113 noikeee 190 kismet 27 DutchQuicksilver 96 HeidfeldsBeard 168 AcuraF1 112 kismet 189 Apex 25 d_view7 95 Wander 168 JAW97 112 Apex 180 JAW97 25 AcuraF1 94 MJB5990 167 SpaceHorseParty 112 KWSN-DSM 180 SpaceHorseParty 24 The Snowman 94 kismet 166 Grayson 110 mark f1 180 * Current 22 JAW97 87 d_view7 165 mark f1 110 wattoroos 176 DutchQuicksilver 20 Grayson 85 AcuraF1 164 Barty 105 fisichella_2001 175 HeidfeldsBeard 20 scheivlak 75 Brawn BGP 001 163 d_view7 104 d_view7 170 KWSN-DSM 20 Barty 70 * Current 160 Bleu 100 Grayson 170 MJB5990 20 SpaceHorseParty 62 SpaceHorseParty 159 KWSN-DSM 96 MJB5990 166 noikeee 20 KWSN-DSM 60 Bleu 158 scheivlak 95 SpaceHorseParty 162 d_view7 19 mark f1 60 JAW97 157 The Snowman 88 Brawn BGP 001 135 Wander 19 Makarias 58 jjcale 151 Brawn BGP 001 86 The Snowman 130 AcuraF1 18 jjcale 51 Costaz 145 * Forecast 86 M2000-5 126 Barty 10 * Forecast 21 Barty 125 * Current 45 * Forecast 97 M2000-5 8 M2000-5 20 Apex 120 M2000-5 26 * Current 51 Costaz 7 * Current 11
Very interesting
Guesses on P6-P10:
Hamilton Grosjean Rosberg Button Ericsson * Potential 427 * Potential 248 * Potential 406 * Potential 231 * Potential 231 JAW97 413 SpaceHorseParty 92 Barty 376 Brawn BGP 001 106 Barty 26 mark f1 410 KWSN-DSM 90 jjcale 375 d_view7 101 Costaz 19 M2000-5 408 scheivlak 80 d_view7 355 Bleu 98 * Forecast 11 MJB5990 405 The Snowman 79 M2000-5 353 Apex 95 KWSN-DSM 10 Makarias 401 M2000-5 77 * Forecast 344 Barty 94 Brawn BGP 001 8 Brawn BGP 001 400 Wander 70 The Snowman 336 Costaz 91 The Snowman 8 * Forecast 384 AcuraF1 68 noikeee 330 wattoroos 80 * Current 6 noikeee 382 HeidfeldsBeard 68 MJB5990 329 kismet 79 mark f1 5 Costaz 375 Apex 65 Costaz 320 HeidfeldsBeard 77 Wander 5 kismet 375 Makarias 64 Grayson 320 Grayson 75 DutchQuicksilver 4 d_view7 370 JAW97 63 mark f1 320 DutchQuicksilver 73 fisichella_2001 4 Grayson 370 Bleu 62 KWSN-DSM 317 Wander 73 Makarias 4 SpaceHorseParty 365 mark f1 60 SpaceHorseParty 313 fisichella_2001 71 kismet 3 DutchQuicksilver362 DutchQuicksilver 59 HeidfeldsBeard 312 The Snowman 71 AcuraF1 2 fisichella_2001 362 d_view7 56 kismet 312 JAW97 68 Apex 2 Apex 360 MJB5990 51 DutchQuicksilver311 noikeee 67 Bleu 2 KWSN-DSM 359 wattoroos 51 Apex 310 AcuraF1 66 HeidfeldsBeard 2 jjcale 350 Grayson 50 Wander 310 MJB5990 63 jjcale 2 Wander 350 fisichella_2001 49 wattoroos 307 SpaceHorseParty 54 M2000-5 1 HeidfeldsBeard 346 Costaz 45 JAW97 305 KWSN-DSM 49 noikeee 1 Bleu 345 kismet 45 Makarias 303 scheivlak 48 d_view7 0 AcuraF1 344 * Forecast 44 AcuraF1 302 mark f1 40 Grayson 0 Barty 341 Brawn BGP 001 37 Brawn BGP 001 302 Makarias 39 JAW97 0 scheivlak 335 noikeee 29 fisichella_2001 301 jjcale 32 MJB5990 0 wattoroos 330 jjcale 23 scheivlak 290 M2000-5 15 scheivlak 0 The Snowman 312 * Current 23 Bleu 280 * Forecast 11 SpaceHorseParty 0 * Current 202 Barty 0 * Current 181 * Current 6 wattoroos 0
If you told Grosjean before the race he'd end up in the middle of a Mercedes sandwich, I bet he would have been a bit miffed at this outcome... Hamilton can only afford one non-win for a 100% surprise, as equalling 413 isn't enough.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- mark f1 1725,4 30,7 KWSN-DSM 1698,1 28,1 Grayson 1680,2 56,5 noikeee 1678,0 24,4 scheivlak 1672,4 79,0 The Snowman 1670,2 53,5 Makarias 1660,8 46,5 fisichella_2001 1658,4 54,1 wattoroos 1657,6 46,9 MJB5990 1654,5 9,8 Wander 1652,0 37,7 kismet 1644,1 48,8 Brawn BGP 001 1642,1 40,8 jjcale 1636,4 55,4 DutchQuicksilver 1631,9 44,1 SpaceHorseParty 1630,7 42,4 d_view7 1627,8 38,5 JAW97 1625,0 20,8 Bleu 1617,2 50,5 M2000-5 1616,8 -34,2 HeidfeldsBeard 1605,1 50,8 Costaz 1584,6 50,7 Apex 1578,7 45,0 AcuraF1 1572,1 44,5 Barty 1524,4 -7,6
No surprise that most forecasts jump up by loads with the nice results for RBR and McLaren. M2000-5's early championship hopes now look slightly different, though...