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Driver Stock Market


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#1 RekF1

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 17:40

I saw this idea on another forum last year, probably during another quiet period, but I liked the idea of it……. and totally stole it.

 

rules

 

Based on your perception of each driver from the end of last year, how much, if at all, has your opinion of that driver's worth, talent or skill changed?

 

So, imagine you invested £100 in each driver at the beginning of March, how much would each driver be worth now?  For example: Driver A, was crash prone last year, and threw away 3 or 4 high points scoring positions. This year however, Driver A, has scored points in every race and had two podium finishes. The return on my investment would now be around £200 for this specific driver, so effectively I think he’s twice the driver he was from the end of last year.

 

This isn’t based on accumulated points or bad luck or anything like that. Just your perception.

 

Only drivers who raced this year and last are included.

 

My list


Hamilton             £90

Rosberg             £110

Ricciardo           £85

Bottas                £95

Vettel                  £105

Alonso                £100

Massa                £140

Button                £100

Hulkenberg        £115

Perez                 £100

Raikkonen         £90

Grosjean           £100

Kvyatt                £110

Maldonado        £50

Ericsson           £110

Stevens            £100

 

Big movers and shakers are Massa, and Maldonado.


I think Massa is having his best season to date and I have a much higher opinion of him than I did last year.


Maldonado was never too high up in my perception, and with his history he could’ve had a couple of bad races and still held his £100 value.

He’s been much worse than that.

 

I was going to go into more detail for selected other drivers, but just realised the Mods might see this as a driver comparison thread and shut it down, so i’ll wait and see.


For the record though, the intention is to compare the drivers to their former selves, not other drivers.

 

 

Alienturnedhuman Rekf1

 
 
 
 

 



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#2 Ross Stonefeld

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 17:56

How the actual flying **** are you valuing Stevens over Hamilton? Big Time Finance does some loopy **** most of the time, but **** me this is illogical.



#3 tmekt

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 18:04

How the actual flying **** are you valuing Stevens over Hamilton? Big Time Finance does some loopy **** most of the time, but **** me this is illogical.

If Hamilton didn't meet his expectations (perceived form by the end of 2014) but Stevens exceeded them that would place Stevens ahead as they both started at 100. It doesn't (necessarily) imply Hamilton being a worse driver if that's what you're getting at.

 

Or at least that's how I understood the idea.

 

 

For the record though, the intention is to compare the drivers to their former selves, not other drivers.


Edited by tmekt, 06 August 2015 - 18:07.


#4 Kyo

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 18:09

How the actual flying **** are you valuing Stevens over Hamilton? Big Time Finance does some loopy **** most of the time, but **** me this is illogical.

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

 

He is only evaluating if the driver exceed (or not) expectations, not their real worth.



#5 TurnOffTheLights

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 18:16

I don't get why Hamilton should be rated lower than at the end of last year? At least, now he's ahead in quali 9:1 and in race trim Rosberg is almost always slower than him. I'd rate him a little higher than last year, let's say 105.

And Rosberg obviously lower.



#6 chadwick8505

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 18:26

Hamilton             £100 (same as expectations, although maybe he could be doing even better given his form?)

Rosberg             £90

Ricciardo           £95

Bottas                £100 (although maybe really a 90 because I had really high expectations for him this year, but he hasn't really lived up to them yet)

Vettel                  £125 (Last year was crap for Seb, this year he's certainly shown that 2014 was an outlier in form)

Alonso                £100

Massa                £110

Button                £100

Hulkenberg        £105 (mostly because of le mans)

Perez                 £100 (never would have paid 100 for him in the first place)

Raikkonen         £100 (I want this to go up but I don't see it)

Grosjean           £100 (Same as Raikkonen)

Kvyatt                £105 (Had some really big shoes to fill, and is doing a fine job at it)

Maldonado        £0 (Never would have paid 100 anything for him, wish I could get my money back)

Ericsson           £100 (disappointing last year, disappointing this year)

Stevens            £100 (disappointing last year, disappointing this year)



#7 Ross Stonefeld

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 18:27

:rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

 

He is only evaluating if the driver exceed (or not) expectations, not their real worth.

 

But that's like putting me in an F1 car and assuming because I didn't kill myself or anyone else, I have shattered expectations and have unimagineable growth potential.

 

Then again, when you see how companies are valued pre-IPO...



#8 noikeee

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 18:37

Hamilton - slightly up
Rosberg - slightly down
Ricciardo - slightly down
Bottas - down by a lot
Vettel - up by a lot
Alonso - slightly down
Massa - same
Button - same
Hulkenberg - same (he started the season like crap and is only now back to normal)
Perez - slightly down
Raikkonen - slightly down
Grosjean - same
Kvyat - slightly up
Maldonado - slightly down
Ericsson - slightly up
Stevens - up by a lot


#9 Xeriks

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 18:42

Not entirely sure how Rosberg is valued more than Hamilton, even though Hamilton is destroying him in qualy this year, and Rosberg is actually way down on points compared to where he was last year in the standings.



#10 Laster

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 18:54

Hamilton             £100 - Doing exactly what I expect in the fastest car with Rosberg as his teammate.

Rosberg             £85 - His qualifying performances are costing him.

Ricciardo           £90 - Rough patches, with the struggles of Red Bull he hasn't looked as unflappable as he did last year.

Bottas                £95 - Solid but Massa is keeping him honest.

Vettel                  £110 - Recovered his reputation from last year by being the best of the rest behind the Mercs by some margin.

Alonso                £100 - Alonso is being Alonso, taking what few opportunities there are when they come.

Massa                £125 - Massa continues to perform well since leaving ferrari. Should have left sooner.

Button                £110 - Has measured well against Alonso. I rate Button quite highly, but I'm still impressed by how he measures up.

Hulkenberg        £100 - Struggled at the start of the year, then returned to his usual self, picking off faster cars and maximising his points.

Perez                 £105 -  Was beating Hulk at the start of the year but has slipped back recently.

Raikkonen         £85 - I thought he'd improve more over last year. Still too far back from his teammate.

Grosjean           £100 - He's performing as well as I expect, gathering points with an occasional costly mistake.

Kvyatt                £115 - Has began to measure well against Ricciardo

Maldonado        £100 - It's Maldonado, he's meeting my expectations.

Ericsson           £100 - Shows the same pace he had last year but with a quicker car.

 

I excluded all rookies since I had no expectations - bad or good - to base anything on. I'm judging them race by race.



#11 P123

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 19:01

The rules are a bit shoddy, as more than driving is involved in valuing worth. As the rules stand it's not really a drivers stock market. If you 'invested' £100 in Bottas for example, then his value has increased not entirely because of his driving, but because he may be on his way to Ferrari. So a potential buyout of his contract and suddenly greater potential future earnings and success makes your initial investment in him now seem more attractive. You invested £100 in JB and FA, then your investment will suffer along with them, as the car wastes their talent.

Hamilton £125 most likely to be on way to the big prize

Rosberg £95 weaker championship position, but still capable of winning races

Ricciardo £90 lost some shine of 2014

Bottas £115 potential to be poached by Ferrari

Vettel £120 regaining lost ground from 2014, Ferrari driver

Alonso £75 stuck in lower reaches of grid, costs a lot, will car ever be good enough in future to enable an overdue WDC

Massa £90 competing well, but nearing end of career and next move may be a step backwards

Button £70 same as Alonso really

Hulkenberg £110 boosted by Le Mans victory

Perez £95 overshadowed by teammate

Raikkonen £60 continued decline

Grosjean £100 another potential Ferrari driver

Kvyatt £110 First podium, first victory maybe not far away, lots of future potential

Maldonado £85 Safe whilst he has sponsorship, keeps his value from plummeting

Ericsson £100 Seat safe, but going nowhere else anyway

Stevens £5 Back of the grid, not on the shopping list of other teams. Heavily shorted ;)

#12 RekF1

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 19:07

Not entirely sure how Rosberg is valued more than Hamilton, even though Hamilton is destroying him in qualy this year, and Rosberg is actually way down on points compared to where he was last year in the standings.

 

This year Rosberg has done something which he didn't do all of last year.  He beat Hamilton convincingly in Barcelona and Austria. The reason Hamilton is down on last year is because he was so good last year it's hard to better it. 



#13 Atreiu

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 19:23

No judgement, but thread would be better served by a "My fantasy" before the title.



#14 Imateria

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 19:23

This year Rosberg has done something which he didn't do all of last year.  He beat Hamilton convincingly in Barcelona and Austria. The reason Hamilton is down on last year is because he was so good last year it's hard to better it. 

But Rosberg beat Hamilton convincingly in Austria and Monaco last year as wel, so him being better in a couple of races is not exactly new. I'd say on balance Hamilton is performing better this year than last as he's much better in qualy which is the one place he was defintiely weaker than Rosberg last year.



#15 RekF1

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 19:55

But Rosberg beat Hamilton convincingly in Austria and Monaco last year as wel, so him being better in a couple of races is not exactly new. I'd say on balance Hamilton is performing better this year than last as he's much better in qualy which is the one place he was defintiely weaker than Rosberg last year.

Fair enough with Austria, but Monaco has extenuating circumstances. Last year it seemed just a matter of time for Lewis to overtake Nico once he was up his gear box. This year Nico seems harder to pass.

 

No judgement, but thread would be better served by a "My fantasy" before the title.

Thanks.  How do I do that?



#16 Atreiu

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 20:08

I don't know if thread titles can be edited, only the contents of the first post.

 

Anyhow, I think Lewis's could have only gone sky high. Look at how his negotiation with Mercedes dragged on and no other driver was even remotely considered for his seat. Vettel aside, I bet any driver on the grid would have taken a Mercedes drive for free.


Edited by Atreiu, 06 August 2015 - 20:11.


#17 Marklar

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Posted 06 August 2015 - 20:51

Thats regarding my expectations (on the drivers themselves not in their team) and how they meet them

 

Hamilton  - slightly up

Rosberg - down

Ricciardo - slightly down

Bottas  - down

Vettel  - up

Alonso - same

Massa - up

Button - same

Hulkenberg - same

Perez - same

Raikkonen - down

Grosjean - same

Kvyat - slightly up

Maldonado - same 

Ericsson - slightly up

Stevens - up

 

Thats regarding how I would distribute my money I spend in March (16x £ 100 = 1600  £) now , which is independed of my expectations on the drivers abilities but more in my actual option about the driver/car value which is usually mean as the market value. I also  assumed that I was drunked when I invested  £ 100 on each driver, in Brackets is what I would have invested at the end of the last year if I would have been dry....

 

Hamilton  £ 325 (275) +50

Rosberg  £ 250 (250) +/- 0

Ricciardo £70 (175) -105

Bottas  £125 (175) -50

Vettel  £225 (125) +100

Alonso £30 (125) -95

Massa  £125 (125) +/- 0

Button  £30 (100) -70

Hulkenberg £70 (80) -10

Perez £50 (50) +/-0

Raikkonen £125 (70) +55

Grosjean  £40 (20) +20

Kvyatt  £70 (20) +50

Maldonado  £40 (10) +30

Ericsson £20 (0) +20

 

Stevens £0 (0) +/-0

 

Ups: Vettel, Raikkonen, Kvyat, Hamilton

Downs: Ricciardo, Alonso, Button, Bottas



#18 PlatenGlass

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 13:42

I'm surprised people have put Raikkonen down compared to last year. If anything I'd put him slightly up. He's not been brilliant but then he was pretty poor last year.

#19 DS27

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 15:10

Well, it's been 7 years since the last stock market crash, so maybe Maldonado will have something to say about that.



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#20 sabjit

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Posted 07 August 2015 - 21:08

Hamilton down?

 

So this time last year, Hamilton was behind in the championship, now he is 21 points ahead. What more do people want?