Out of the drivers in question, a lot of their achievements are not surprising due to their talent. Instead, the surprise comes from them being in the right place at the right time to accomplish their achievements. A lot of drivers have won/challenged for WDC's out of nowhere.
- Button's WDC was only a surprise due to it coming out of nowhere (Honda were dire in 2007/2008). Despite a few niggles early on in his career, I felt he had top-driver potential. His 2003-2006 campaigns showcased his talent. Before, that he was a work-in-progress, and it was not entirely clear how his career would pan out.
- Seb becoming WDC was no surprise, but him winning it 4 times was unexpected. He had shown WDC potential in 2008, so it was not shocking when he won the title in 2010. However, it was surprising that Red Bull had the best car for such a long time.
- By the time 2008 rolled around, it was not a massive surprise that Massa ended up being a WDC runner up. It was a shock relative to earlier in his career, but he had shown potential in the 2006/2007 Ferrari's. (The Ferrari cars from this period get underrated in my opinion, but Massa deserves credit for beating Kimi. Few would have predicted that a few years earlier)