104 replies to this topic

[Gilles12]

Both quoted teams are giants in our history. But looking at the last five years...

Edited by Gilles12, 20 September 2015 - 21:47.

[Christbiscuit]

No. McLaren have a works engine deal for another decade. Williams' woes really started once they lost their works deal. Huge difference. McLaren are having a wretced season but they have too many good people and too many resources for this season to be but a blip.

[Lee Nicolle]

I have read elsewhere that Honda expect to supply another team next year. Who? 

On current performance  and rules who would want one?

[MikeV1987]

They are getting bad results this season, but I wouldn't underestimate them in the future.

Edited by MikeV1987, 20 September 2015 - 22:08.

[Marklar]

McLaren has the same problem Williams had: they are deeply depended by an manufactorer. In fact, Honda is paying a lot. Should they leave, like BMW leaved Williams than they will be in serious problems. So far they aren't, even if the performance is well comparable to Williams in 2011/2013.

[YoungGun]

I think as long as there is cash flow time is on McLaren's side. I don't see Honda pouring any more in.

[LORDBYRON]

These posts always pop up. The answerer  no all teams go through a bad patch you could argue the same about red bull just now 

[Seanspeed]

It's possible. Williams seemed to never really be the same after 1997. They had a resurgence with their BMW partnership, and then again with Martini/Mercedes last year, but these never quite propelled them to titles again. It's not impossible that could happen to McLaren.

I'm pretty sure McLaren are in an ok position financially, so they have that going for them. But the personnel is a whole different group than before, Ron's current role is somewhat vague and questionable, and they've got a long-term partnership with an engine supplier who may not be up to the task.

Whatever the case, it's going to be an uphill battle over the next few years to make sure they *don't* follow the same footsteps as Williams. And I definitely wont feel comfortable writing them off anytime soon. Ferrari has had some down stretches in F1 and McLaren could well rise again so long as they've got the money to spend.

[shonguiz]

Not yet, but those who think that McLaren is a top team of the same caliber as Mercedes & Ferrari are living in denial. People still think that McLaren is in danger of being hit economically, but what they fail to realize is that it's already happening since many years, just take a look at the manpower numbers. 550 for McLaren vs 800 for Both Mercedes and Ferrari, chassis teams alone.

Edited by shonguiz, 20 September 2015 - 22:20.

[F1Racing90]

Mclaren for me have been one of the worst running teams in F1. Really for the budget they have, they have been nothing but poor. They have won 1 WDC & 1WCC since 1998. And rest assure they won't be winning next year either. In a lot of the season since 1998, they have been a complete mid field team.

 

I actually believe if you give Williams the same budget as Mclaren have had, then they would have delivered more WDC & WCC in the same time period. 

 

If their financial power starts to degrade, then I can see them becoming the new Williams. 

Edited by F1Racing90, 20 September 2015 - 22:34.

[Gareth]

Pessimistic answer: no.  Williams had the humility to cut their cloth accordingly, Mclaren don't.

[No brain no pain]

McLaren-Honda F1 is in way deeper problems than imagined. They might very well get into the same problems as a racing-team as Williams did, but outside of the team, they are doing good. They do have to cut costs in the F1 team, but they don't know where to start.... That's one the reasons why they are considering their driver line-up, and will let Alonso walk away, once more. 

[shonguiz]

Pessimistic answer: no.  Williams had the humility to cut their cloth accordingly, Mclaren don't.

Very true, Williams really started to get back on a positive trend after they replaced Head&Williams by fresh new blood (Parr, Wolff, CW) and restructured themselves to reflect their new size and financial capabilities.

[Nathan]

No because McLaren has more financial clout with the side businesses, and the long-term Honda tie-up.

 

I have read elsewhere that Honda expect to supply another team next year. Who? 

On current performance  and rules who would want one?

 

Manor.  Merc isn't going to discount the price tag any further than a seat Wehrlein.  What's that? $5 million USD?

[noikeee]

No. McLaren have a works engine deal for another decade. Williams' woes really started once they lost their works deal. Huge difference. McLaren are having a wretced season but they have too many good people and too many resources for this season to be but a blip.

 

McLaren already lost their works deal with Mercedes like Williams lost their works deal with Renault in the 1990s. The analogy could be extended by imagining McLaren's current works deal with Honda will ultimately fail like Williams' BMW works deal did (and hey at the moment McLaren-Honda is looking way worse than Williams-BMW).

 

History doesn't repeat itself twice in exactly the same way but it could happen. At the moment I (and I presume lots of F1 fans) still see McLaren as a big team, and Williams as a small team. Budgets back that up. I wonder if that will last for long, Williams have been beating them on track very comfortably for 2 seasons now...

[DerFlugplatz]

If history is anything to go by things don't look good for Mclaren. Lotus, Williams,Tyrrell and Brabham all had seasons were they atleast won races or even chellenged for the championship after their final WDC or WCC before sliding ever deeper down the field. Mclaren have manedged to atlest be occasional race winners for longer than the previous mentioned teams. But as was the case for Lotus, Williams, Tyrrell and Brabham once you begin sliding into the midfield its very hard to recover with only Williams being able to recover to producing decent results.

[EthanM]

No because McLaren has more financial clout with the side businesses, and the long-term Honda tie-up.

 

 

Manor.  Merc isn't going to discount the price tag any further than a seat Wehrlein.  What's that? $5 million USD?

 

Rumor in Sing was that Manor Merc is a done deal

[George Costanza]

It's possible. Williams seemed to never really be the same after 1997. They had a resurgence with their BMW partnership, and then again with Martini/Mercedes last year, but these never quite propelled them to titles again. It's not impossible that could happen to McLaren.

I'm pretty sure McLaren are in an ok position financially, so they have that going for them. But the personnel is a whole different group than before, Ron's current role is somewhat vague and questionable, and they've got a long-term partnership with an engine supplier who may not be up to the task.

Whatever the case, it's going to be an uphill battle over the next few years to make sure they *don't* follow the same footsteps as Williams. And I definitely wont feel comfortable writing them off anytime soon. Ferrari has had some down stretches in F1 and McLaren could well rise again so long as they've got the money to spend.

 

That's because they let Adrian Newey go. If Frank and Patrick gave him more power and he became the technical director, things would be very different from 1998 onward. Frank and Patrick couldn't quite see in the future of how good Adrian truly was and is.    McLaren would be an even bigger slump if Adrian didn't even go there in 1998-2005.

 

Even they say that it was a mistake letting him go.

If they never let him go, would Renault even left F1 in 1997?  Another issue was after 1997, Renault left F1. They came back with Benetton (Enstone) and brought it. If Williams was Renault's works team (If Benetton didn't get the Reanult engines for 1995), it could have been a different story too.

 

Two possible reasons why Williams have not won any championship since 1997.

Edited by George Costanza, 21 September 2015 - 00:18.

[Tsarwash]

Mclaren for me have been one of the worst running teams in F1. Really for the budget they have, they have been nothing but poor. They have won 1 WDC & 1WCC since 1998. And rest assure they won't be winning next year either. In a lot of the season since 1998, they have been a complete mid field team.

 

I actually believe if you give Williams the same budget as Mclaren have had, then they would have delivered more WDC & WCC in the same time period. 

 

If their financial power starts to degrade, then I can see them becoming the new Williams. 

McLaren. 1998; 1st. 1999; 2nd. 2000; 2nd. 2001; 2nd. 2002; 3rd. 2003; 3rd. 2004; 5th. 2005; 2nd. 2006; 3rd. 2007; DQ. 2008; 2nd. 2009; 3rd. 2010; 2nd. 2011; 2nd. 2012; 3rd. 2013; 5th. 2014; 5th. Average (excluding 2007); 2.81.

 

Ferrari. 1998; 2nd. 1999; 1st. 2000; 1st. 2001; 1st. 2002; 1st. 2003; 1st. 2004; 1st. 2005; 3rd. 2006; 2nd. 2007; --. 2008; 1st. 2009; 4th. 2010; 3rd. 2011; 3rd. 2012; 2nd. 2013; 3rd. 2014; 4th. Average (excluding 2007); 2.06.

[ViMaMo]

Williams spent 6 years (2006-2011) on mediocre power plants. I wonder why. Only after switching to Renault were they able to do anything. 2012 would have been much better for them if they had better drivers. I wish they regain their top team status soon. 

 

Mclaren haven't been keeping quiet, they have gone for best option .... Honda. Things haven't worked out this year. Hoping better results in 2016 to them. 

[Gyno]

The williams Story would have been compleatly different had they gave in to BMW and let them buy into the team.

That's the only reason why they split.

 

Who knows maybe BMW would still be in F1 as a part owner of Williams and they would be the ones dominating the sport.

Atleast they would have won a few titles over the years.

[ViMaMo]

The williams Story would have been compleatly different had they gave in to BMW and let them buy into the team.

That's the only reason why they split.

 

Who knows maybe BMW would still be in F1 as a part owner of Williams and they would be the ones dominating the sport.

Atleast they would have won a few titles over the years.

 

Had Williams found a decent engine partner, they would not have rolled down the hill. 

[peroa]

They are getting bad results this season, but I wouldn't underestimate them in the future.

They are getting bad results for 3 seasons now...

[Nobody]

This is not the thread for me...

[dierome1987]

Sad thread... These were the top teams of my childhood!

 

I find particularly striking that McLaren's decline began in 2013. They had a hell of a car the year before (and their previous cars were all decent race winning machines). Technically speaking, 2013 wasn't that different from the previous year. How did that happen?

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

McLaren can't be Williams because they have more money than Williams because they sell cars and technology but Williams only sell technology.

[SpeedRacer`]

I think it's far too easy to blame the engine, especially on McLaren's side because their engine was good in 2013, and very good last season.

[noikeee]

Sad thread... These were the top teams of my childhood!

 

I find particularly striking that McLaren's decline began in 2013. They had a hell of a car the year before (and their previous cars were all decent race winning machines). Technically speaking, 2013 wasn't that different from the previous year. How did that happen?

 

It's just the result of several bad things accumulating on top of each other:

 

* bad decision of overhauling their car radically despite the 2012 car having been good; 

* the works deal with Mercedes that they had already lost; 

* having lost their star driver in Hamilton; 

* losing their sponsor in Vodafone; 

* the pressure all of that put in their senior figures like Withmarsh who ultimately lost his job, I'm not saying he should've been kept but instability at top level rarely is a good thing;

* and now the very bad Honda engine.

 

McLaren can't be Williams because they have more money than Williams because they sell cars and technology but Williams only sell technology.

 

This is partially true as I agree a team with a side business as a car company should be more stable than teams that live only exclusively for the racing, but car companies can go bust too.

[PayasYouRace]

The williams Story would have been compleatly different had they gave in to BMW and let them buy into the team.

That's the only reason why they split.

 

Who knows maybe BMW would still be in F1 as a part owner of Williams and they would be the ones dominating the sport.

Atleast they would have won a few titles over the years.

 

If that had happened Williams would have ceased to exist as Williams, and then what was left would have probably died when BMW pulled out in 2009, unless Sir Frank would have done what Peter Sauber did with his team to rescue it in real life, and they'd be exactly where they are now anyway.

[Gareth]

McLaren can't be Williams because they have more money than Williams because they sell cars and technology but Williams only sell technology.

McLaren Automotive sells cars.  The McLaren group (which owns the company entered in F1) owns 3.7% of McLaren Automotive.

 

Last year, McLaren Automotive made £8.5m profit.  Had it declared all of that profit as a dividend, the F1 operations could have received £313k - hardly a dent in an F1 operating budget.

 

There is significant commonality of shareholding (eg Dennis, Ojeh, Mumtalakat).  So it's possible that those shareholders see continued success in F1 as essential to the McLaren Automotive brand, and are therefore more willing to support the F1 team's budget in order to continue to generate value and profit in Automotive.

[oetzi]

I agree a team with a side business as a car company should be more stable than teams that live only exclusively for the racing, but car companies can go bust too.

There are very few car companies that haven't gone bust.

Edited by oetzi, 21 September 2015 - 10:02.

[Gilles12]

At the moment I (and I presume lots of F1 fans) still see McLaren as a big team, and Williams as a small team. Budgets back that up. I wonder if that will last for long, Williams have been beating them on track very comfortably for 2 seasons now...

Very interesting. I'm fascinated to understand when the tipping point was when Williams went from the championship winning steam roller it was to a small team. 1997? Post Montoya? Post BMW?

It's the ebb and flow that's so interesting

[charly0418]

I think it depens on how patient they are with Honda

 

I think Honda will never develop a winning F1 engine on current regulations and what is coming for 2017. If they have the balls to bail out on the partnership and go back with another company (porbably Merc) then I can see them getting back on it. Otherwise they'll be stuck in mediocrity with Honda. Is that crappy engine going to get better? Abosolutely, but I dont think they will ever catch Merc and Ferrari

[PayasYouRace]

Very interesting. I'm fascinated to understand when the tipping point was when Williams went from the championship winning steam roller it was to a small team. 1997? Post Montoya? Post BMW?

It's the ebb and flow that's so interesting

 

If I had to pick a moment it would be when they split with BMW.

[Logiso]

McLaren had dark days before, back in the mid 90's. I think that as long as they keep the Honda partnership going they will be okay long term. Once the new rules come for 2017 that would be a bit of a reset and with Honda and a decent investment, especially if they have to write off 2016 early as well - then who knows what can happen. As long as they have Honda then they are in the discussion. And also right now they at least have Alonso so if the car comes good, they'll get results.

Edited by Logiso, 21 September 2015 - 21:56.

[Jimisgod]

Very interesting. I'm fascinated to understand when the tipping point was when Williams went from the championship winning steam roller it was to a small team. 1997? Post Montoya? Post BMW?

It's the ebb and flow that's so interesting

 

1997 was the "McLaren loses Mercedes" moment and BMW leaving would be like if the Honda deal sours for McLaren.

 

I actually think McLaren hasn't been "steamrolling" since Senna left - after Honda they should have invested in an engine program because at that point they were the undisputed kings of F1. Since then every year bar 1998 was an uphill challenge to win. Merc has had 2 walk-over seasons, RBR had 2, Ferrari had at least 3 during their dominance.

 

I think 2015 is a blip, but if it persists for another season then you might see Honda leave and McLaren go on a merry-go-round of customer engines. Ferrari's ability to rebound is mostly thanks to 100% control over their engine program. After Schumacher and co. helped fix the team they've rarely been out at sea for two seasons in a row - 2005 sucked but 2006 was a near championship, 2009 sucked but 2010 was a near championship, 2014 sucked but 2015 is building up to be 2nd best again.

[sopa]

It is almost impossible to predict, what will happen in F1 in 5 or 10 years time. Maybe in 2025 McLaren will be winning in partnership with VW, who knows.

 

But one thing is sure - McLaren is experiencing a very long period of drought. Williams has had a very lengthy period of underperformance - they finished continuously outside top 3 in WCC for a decade (2004->2013). McLaren has now 3 seasons and counting...

 

As for finances... In F1 there is always a selected bunch of teams, who car manufacturers want to partner with, because they believe their partner is good enough to provide a decent enough chassis to complement their engine. Honda decided to partner with McLaren, not Williams. Had Williams had the opportunity to go with Honda works engines for 2015, they would have taken such opportunity with both hands, had such opportunity existed back in 2013. Because McLaren-Honda deal was signed back then.

 

But McLaren is certainly dropping down in "teams pecking order" in terms of attractiveness for partnerships. Mercedes, Ferrari, Red Bull are all ahead in this lists now. It depends, how many car manufacturers join F1 in the future and how healthy is the financial situation in F1. Who knows, Williams may become a "works team" one day too again. But then I guess we'd need at least 5-6 car manufacturers taking on F1, much like in the 2000s.

 

But if Honda decides to call it a day, we are left with Mercedes, Ferrari and maybe, say, VW wants to team up with Red Bull, and that's it... then yeah - the signs would not look good for McLaren, and certainly they'd struggle financially as well. Because they have not proven themselves as an attractive prospect for (potential) sponsors for a while.

Edited by sopa, 22 September 2015 - 07:38.

[Thanos89]

I'll wait untill the end of 2016 to answer this question. Who believed that Ferrari whould be as competitive as they are now at this point after last season? I didn't and i think many aswell. But i m glad they are doing fine and can take the fight to the Mercs 'cause F1 needs it.
You can bash Honda and McLaren all day but the thing is, the sport needs them to be at the front and fighting with Ferrari and Mercedes as soon as possible. Too bad the rules and the FIA are not letting this happen quicker. 
 

[Owen]

2015 was the start of a new chassis and aero philosophy. The concept will be developed in 2016.

2015 was ruined by a fundamental design flaw in the PU that the rules did not allow the team to correct. The lessons learned from that will be taken into account for 2016.

 

2016 will be a considerably better year for the team and when results come, so will all the sponsors. All the key ingredients are still there. Except for Button, but there is Stoffel or Kevin in the wings. 

[ThisIsMischaW]

I think they missed the boat when they didn't let Mercedes buy them. Honda might work out but it looks a long shot at the moment.

[dierome1987]

McLaren has to be one of the most underperforming teams in sports history. It really didn't begin in 2013. It's ludicrous that despite their massive resources their last WCC came in 1998, and before that, 1991!!!

 

I really want to see this team shine again, but there really doesn't seem to be any evidence for that to be the case.

[Rinehart]

McLaren has to be one of the most underperforming teams in sports history. It really didn't begin in 2013. It's ludicrous that despite their massive resources their last WCC came in 1998, and before that, 1991!!!

 

I really want to see this team shine again, but there really doesn't seem to be any evidence for that to be the case.

Ever since McLaren and Honda split its been poor. They were Mercedes works partners for 20 years, with only 1 constructors title in that time - no wonder Mercedes went off and did their own thing and started dominating. I really doubt they'd be in that position now if they'd stuck with McLaren as partners. I think Hamilton, Button and Alonso have flattered McLaren in recent times - realistically they haven't build the best car in any given season since Adrian Newey left. My feeling is that the situation at McLaren is far more serious than it ever was at Williams. At Williams it was all about budget. Either they had it or they didn't. Whereas at McLaren, if beleive that there is something structurally, culturally and operationally flawed and whilst I have the greatest respect for Ron Dennis - I feel the DNA at the root of the problems are his... 

[Ickx]

McLaren has the same problem Williams had: they are deeply depended by an manufactorer. In fact, Honda is paying a lot. Should they leave, like BMW leaved Williams than they will be in serious problems. So far they aren't, even if the performance is well comparable to Williams in 2011/2013.

 

Well, that could be said about every team that is not a car manufactorer. They are all depending on finding a pertnership. McLaren had Mercedes for some time but over the years there have been different partners. In the old day you could buy a decent engine and stick it in the car but that is a long, long time ago.

[EthanM]

2015 was the start of a new chassis and aero philosophy. The concept will be developed in 2016.

2015 was ruined by a fundamental design flaw in the PU that the rules did not allow the team to correct. The lessons learned from that will be taken into account for 2016.

 

2016 will be a considerably better year for the team and when results come, so will all the sponsors. All the key ingredients are still there. Except for Button, but there is Stoffel or Kevin in the wings. 

 

that's all very good, but last weekend, Horner said Renault (which isn't in as a catastrophic situation as Honda is) will take 2 to 3 years to catch up to Mercedes on the engine front. And they have one more year of racing these engines under their belt than Honda does. So personally I don't see where all the optimism stems from, to me the most likely scenario is that Honda will be fourth best engine for a few years still. Maybe McLaren can build a chassis that mitigates the engine deficit to the customer teams, but that will still put them 4th team at best, and that is assuming Red Bull can't source a decent engine, if they can my money on the better chassis will be on Red Bull, not McLaren.

[Anderis]

It's really impossible to predict what will happen, but as has been mentioned earlier- the whole blame can't be put on engine. They had 2 years in row outside top4 in WCC with Mercedes engine, which was more than decent enough. Two or so more seasons without podium finishes and outside top4 in WCC and they'll struggle more and more to hire top drivers and secure big sponsorship deals, which will make it even harder to come back at the top. You say they have works team deal, but it won't last forever, especially when results are bad. Then they may struggle to secure another one after Honda and actually follow the route, which would remind Williams' route pretty much. It doesn't have to happen, but I find it naive to believe McLaren currently have all of the assets to assure it won't.

[Quickshifter]

Talk about knee jerking

[oetzi]

Talk about knee jerking

What kneejerk? People have been talking about this for years.

[ViMaMo]

that's all very good, but last weekend, Horner said Renault (which isn't in as a catastrophic situation as Honda is) will take 2 to 3 years to catch up to Mercedes on the engine front. And they have one more year of racing these engines under their belt than Honda does. So personally I don't see where all the optimism stems from, to me the most likely scenario is that Honda will be fourth best engine for a few years still. Maybe McLaren can build a chassis that mitigates the engine deficit to the customer teams, but that will still put them 4th team at best, and that is assuming Red Bull can't source a decent engine, if they can my money on the better chassis will be on Red Bull, not McLaren.

 

With the VW deal imminent, an excuse for pulling out after the tango?

Edited by ViMaMo, 22 September 2015 - 09:13.

[EthanM]

Talk about knee jerking

 

hmm, McLaren's last competitive season was 2012. 3 Bad years isn't kneejerking I think

[EthanM]

With the VW deal imminent, an excuse for pulling out after the tango?

 

 

wouldn't make sense, the pullout is pretty much done. Plus it doesn't really strengthen Horner's position, even if VAG materializes he will still need stopgap engines, why leave himself with begging Ferrari as his only option?