The standings after Singapore:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) scheivlak 1287 94 2) mark f1 1280 83 3) fisichella_2001 1277 88 4) wattoroos 1273 94 5) The Snowman 1271 88 6) KWSN-DSM 1264 67 7) Makarias 1255 72 8) kismet 1251 72 9) Grayson 1250 71 10) Bleu 1246 75 11) Wander 1245 65 12) Brawn BGP 001 1242 60 13) noikeee 1240 83 14) jjcale 1235 72 15) HeidfeldsBeard 1228 63 16) SpaceHorseParty 1227 65 17) DutchQuicksilver 1220 65 18) MJB5990 1213 65 19) JAW97 1210 65 20) AcuraF1 1202 64 21) Apex 1190 53 22) d_view7 1183 64 23) Costaz 1175 65 24) M2000-5 1171 80 25) Barty 1109 65A change in the lead. Who the heck is scheivlak?
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Eric 208,3 33,3 22 Nasr 201,4 58,6 20 Pere 177,9 83,0 23 Vett 118,2 98,1 22 Vers 103,3 39,5 15 Hülk 97,6 44,1 13 Räik 74,4 41,6 3 Hami 68,7 60,9 0 Gros 66,3 40,9 4 Rosb 66,0 56,0 0 Mass 62,3 50,0 0 Kvya 57,7 35,5 1 Sain 56,5 28,2 5 Bott 51,6 40,6 0 Ricc 39,1 29,1 0 Mald 33,7 15,0 2 Alon 12,6 8,7 0 Butt 8,7 5,6 0Max Verstappen makes it past his expectation mark as the fifth driver this season. Vettel is now well near the 100% surprise.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2015 this is 25.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Vettel Ricciardo Räikkönen Rosberg Bottas * Potential 353 jjcale 250 * Potential 257 Barty 376 * Potential 251 * Forecast 297 Makarias 229 M2000-5 256 jjcale 375 Costaz 248 scheivlak 206 AcuraF1 224 Barty 208 * Potential 361 d_view7 240 wattoroos 205 * Potential 223 kismet 167 d_view7 355 M2000-5 236 M2000-5 203 Barty 218 noikeee 165 M2000-5 353 Apex 230 * Current 203 DutchQuicksilver216 MJB5990 163 The Snowman 336 Barty 230 fisichella_2001 197 HeidfeldsBeard 215 DutchQuicksilver161 noikeee 330 AcuraF1 218 noikeee 197 Costaz 204 KWSN-DSM 160 MJB5990 329 fisichella_2001 210 The Snowman 196 scheivlak 200 Wander 156 Costaz 320 Grayson 210 Makarias 191 Bleu 195 * Forecast 156 Grayson 320 The Snowman 208 mark f1 190 JAW97 192 d_view7 155 mark f1 320 JAW97 207 Grayson 180 Wander 191 wattoroos 150 KWSN-DSM 317 Brawn BGP 001 201 KWSN-DSM 180 noikeee 190 Bleu 140 SpaceHorseParty 313 Bleu 200 DutchQuicksilver173 kismet 189 jjcale 140 HeidfeldsBeard 312 SpaceHorseParty 199 HeidfeldsBeard 168 Apex 180 mark f1 140 kismet 312 noikeee 192 Wander 168 KWSN-DSM 180 scheivlak 140 DutchQuicksilver311 scheivlak 190 MJB5990 167 mark f1 180 The Snowman 138 Apex 310 DutchQuicksilver188 kismet 166 wattoroos 176 AcuraF1 130 Wander 310 mark f1 185 d_view7 165 fisichella_2001 175 Grayson 130 * Forecast 308 Wander 185 AcuraF1 164 d_view7 170 SpaceHorseParty 130 wattoroos 307 wattoroos 185 Brawn BGP 001 163 Grayson 170 JAW97 126 JAW97 305 HeidfeldsBeard 172 SpaceHorseParty 159 MJB5990 166 HeidfeldsBeard 124 Makarias 303 Makarias 170 Bleu 158 SpaceHorseParty 162 fisichella_2001 113 AcuraF1 302 MJB5990 164 JAW97 157 Brawn BGP 001 135 Costaz 112 Brawn BGP 001 302 KWSN-DSM 160 jjcale 151 The Snowman 130 * Current 107 fisichella_2001 301 kismet 154 Costaz 145 M2000-5 126 Brawn BGP 001 97 scheivlak 290 * Forecast 148 Barty 125 * Forecast 107 Makarias 97 Bleu 280 jjcale 114 Apex 120 * Current 73 Apex 95 * Current 211 * Current 101A P8 finish is all Vettel needs to become a 100% surprise. That chance is practically gone for the rest of these guys. Kimi has at least started to beat some guesses now.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Kvyat Perez Verstappen Sainz Nasr * Potential 216 * Potential 189 * Potential 180 * Potential 161 * Potential 167 jjcale 185 * Forecast 57 scheivlak 75 The Snowman 38 The Snowman 28 MJB5990 154 kismet 46 jjcale 73 Brawn BGP 001 33 * Forecast 25 HeidfeldsBeard 138 Bleu 40 Brawn BGP 001 55 Makarias 28 d_view7 25 Makarias 135 * Current 39 Makarias 48 jjcale 27 noikeee 20 DutchQuicksilver132 jjcale 35 * Forecast 44 SpaceHorseParty 27 Brawn BGP 001 18 wattoroos 131 mark f1 35 Bleu 35 Barty 25 jjcale 17 kismet 130 SpaceHorseParty 33 Grayson 35 fisichella_2001 25 * Current 17 Costaz 126 Apex 30 The Snowman 32 Grayson 25 scheivlak 12 fisichella_2001 124 KWSN-DSM 30 wattoroos 31 scheivlak 25 Costaz 11 noikeee 121 Wander 30 fisichella_2001 30 kismet 24 Apex 10 Apex 115 fisichella_2001 27 mark f1 30 Apex 23 KWSN-DSM 10 Wander 113 scheivlak 27 * Current 30 Costaz 22 AcuraF1 8 AcuraF1 112 Grayson 25 kismet 27 KWSN-DSM 20 DutchQuicksilver 8 JAW97 112 Makarias 25 Apex 25 wattoroos 20 M2000-5 8 SpaceHorseParty 112 wattoroos 25 JAW97 25 JAW97 19 Wander 8 Grayson 110 Brawn BGP 001 24 SpaceHorseParty 24 * Forecast 16 HeidfeldsBeard 6 mark f1 110 HeidfeldsBeard 22 DutchQuicksilver 20 Wander 16 mark f1 5 Barty 105 MJB5990 19 HeidfeldsBeard 20 mark f1 15 fisichella_2001 4 d_view7 104 noikeee 15 KWSN-DSM 20 DutchQuicksilver 14 wattoroos 4 Bleu 100 The Snowman 15 MJB5990 20 Bleu 13 JAW97 3 KWSN-DSM 96 JAW97 13 noikeee 20 MJB5990 12 Makarias 3 * Forecast 96 DutchQuicksilver 12 d_view7 19 * Current 11 Bleu 2 scheivlak 95 Costaz 9 Wander 19 AcuraF1 10 kismet 1 The Snowman 88 AcuraF1 6 AcuraF1 18 d_view7 8 Barty 0 Brawn BGP 001 86 M2000-5 5 Barty 10 noikeee 8 Grayson 0 * Current 66 Barty 0 M2000-5 8 HeidfeldsBeard 6 MJB5990 0 M2000-5 26 d_view7 0 Costaz 7 M2000-5 4 SpaceHorseParty 0Perez' recent show of form can make him a 100% surprise any race now. He and Vettel seem to be the only ones heading that way.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- mark f1 1727,2 -25,1 KWSN-DSM 1723,7 13,0 scheivlak 1692,0 21,5 Wander 1685,8 21,8 Grayson 1682,7 5,9 wattoroos 1680,0 18,6 fisichella_2001 1674,0 14,2 kismet 1671,2 22,8 noikeee 1670,5 4,2 Makarias 1668,7 -18,4 DutchQuicksilver 1662,5 28,9 MJB5990 1653,5 -12,8 The Snowman 1652,3 -2,2 SpaceHorseParty 1651,9 5,0 Bleu 1649,3 4,1 JAW97 1630,8 -21,1 Brawn BGP 001 1627,7 -18,4 HeidfeldsBeard 1623,8 7,8 d_view7 1622,2 24,6 jjcale 1614,7 15,4 Apex 1599,9 8,0 AcuraF1 1594,5 7,8 M2000-5 1590,1 -23,5 Costaz 1578,8 4,3 Barty 1517,4 18,6Big and frightening changes in the forecasts! It seems we can't take anything for granted yet. Will Mercedes bounce back in Japan?
