The standings after Japan:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) scheivlak 1376 89 2) mark f1 1364 84 3) fisichella_2001 1353 76 4) wattoroos 1352 79 5) The Snowman 1349 78 6) KWSN-DSM 1348 84 7) kismet 1335 84 8) Grayson 1333 83 9) Bleu 1332 86 10) Wander 1326 81 11) Makarias 1321 66 12) jjcale 1315 80 13) noikeee 1306 66 14) HeidfeldsBeard 1304 76 15) SpaceHorseParty 1303 76 16) Brawn BGP 001 1302 60 17) DutchQuicksilver 1296 76 18) JAW97 1286 76 19) MJB5990 1285 72 20) AcuraF1 1277 75 21) Apex 1262 72 22) d_view7 1258 75 23) M2000-5 1246 75 24) Costaz 1244 69 25) Barty 1175 66Very exciting
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Eric 208,3 33,3 22 Nasr 201,4 58,6 20 Pere 177,9 83,0 23 Vett 126,9 105,3 25 Hülk 123,7 55,9 18 Vers 110,2 42,1 18 Räik 82,8 46,3 5 Gros 76,7 47,3 4 Hami 75,5 66,9 0 Rosb 71,6 60,7 0 Mass 62,3 50,0 0 Sain 61,6 30,8 5 Kvya 57,7 35,5 1 Bott 56,7 44,6 0 Mald 45,0 20,0 3 Ricc 39,1 29,1 0 Alon 12,6 8,7 0 Butt 8,7 5,6 0Vettel becomes a 100% surprise! Hurrah! Nico Hülkenberg becomes #6 past his Expectation mark. Good stuff.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2015 this is 25.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Rosberg Vettel Räikkönen Bottas JAW97 413 Barty 376 * Potential 343 M2000-5 256 Costaz 248 mark f1 410 jjcale 375 * Forecast 296 * Potential 244 d_view7 240 M2000-5 408 d_view7 355 * Current 218 Barty 208 * Potential 236 MJB5990 405 * Potential 354 scheivlak 206 kismet 167 M2000-5 236 * Potential 402 M2000-5 353 wattoroos 205 noikeee 165 Apex 230 Makarias 401 The Snowman 336 M2000-5 203 MJB5990 163 Barty 230 Brawn BGP 001 400 noikeee 330 fisichella_2001 197 * Forecast 162 AcuraF1 218 noikeee 382 MJB5990 329 noikeee 197 DutchQuicksilver161 fisichella_2001 210 * Forecast 376 Costaz 320 The Snowman 196 KWSN-DSM 160 Grayson 210 Costaz 375 Grayson 320 Makarias 191 Wander 156 The Snowman 208 kismet 375 mark f1 320 mark f1 190 d_view7 155 JAW97 207 d_view7 370 KWSN-DSM 317 Grayson 180 wattoroos 150 Brawn BGP 001 201 Grayson 370 SpaceHorseParty 313 KWSN-DSM 180 Bleu 140 Bleu 200 SpaceHorseParty 365 HeidfeldsBeard 312 DutchQuicksilver173 jjcale 140 SpaceHorseParty 199 DutchQuicksilver362 kismet 312 HeidfeldsBeard 168 mark f1 140 noikeee 192 fisichella_2001 362 DutchQuicksilver311 Wander 168 scheivlak 140 scheivlak 190 Apex 360 * Forecast 311 MJB5990 167 The Snowman 138 DutchQuicksilver188 KWSN-DSM 359 Apex 310 kismet 166 AcuraF1 130 mark f1 185 jjcale 350 Wander 310 d_view7 165 Grayson 130 Wander 185 Wander 350 wattoroos 307 AcuraF1 164 SpaceHorseParty 130 wattoroos 185 HeidfeldsBeard 346 JAW97 305 Brawn BGP 001 163 JAW97 126 HeidfeldsBeard 172 Bleu 345 Makarias 303 SpaceHorseParty 159 HeidfeldsBeard 124 Makarias 170 AcuraF1 344 AcuraF1 302 Bleu 158 * Current 119 MJB5990 164 Barty 341 Brawn BGP 001 302 JAW97 157 fisichella_2001 113 KWSN-DSM 160 scheivlak 335 fisichella_2001 301 jjcale 151 Costaz 112 kismet 154 wattoroos 330 scheivlak 290 Costaz 145 Brawn BGP 001 97 * Forecast 151 The Snowman 312 Bleu 280 Barty 125 Makarias 97 jjcale 114 * Current 277 * Current 229 Apex 120 Apex 95 * Current 111The other four drivers here are already sure not to score a 100% surprise.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Hülkenberg Grosjean Maldonado Verstappen Sainz * Potential 163 * Potential 169 * Potential 141 * Potential 157 * Potential 137 kismet 67 SpaceHorseParty 92 SpaceHorseParty 79 scheivlak 75 The Snowman 38 Bleu 63 KWSN-DSM 90 M2000-5 65 jjcale 73 Brawn BGP 001 33 * Forecast 52 scheivlak 80 HeidfeldsBeard 57 Brawn BGP 001 55 Makarias 28 jjcale 47 The Snowman 79 The Snowman 52 Makarias 48 jjcale 27 scheivlak 45 M2000-5 77 KWSN-DSM 51 * Forecast 43 SpaceHorseParty 27 KWSN-DSM 44 Wander 70 AcuraF1 50 Bleu 35 Barty 25 Apex 43 AcuraF1 68 Apex 45 Grayson 35 fisichella_2001 25 mark f1 40 HeidfeldsBeard 68 mark f1 45 The Snowman 32 Grayson 25 * Current 38 Apex 65 Wander 42 * Current 32 scheivlak 25 fisichella_2001 36 Makarias 64 Grayson 40 wattoroos 31 kismet 24 Grayson 35 JAW97 63 scheivlak 40 fisichella_2001 30 Apex 23 Wander 35 Bleu 62 DutchQuicksilver 35 mark f1 30 Costaz 22 HeidfeldsBeard 31 * Forecast 60 JAW97 34 kismet 27 KWSN-DSM 20 Barty 30 mark f1 60 d_view7 32 Apex 25 wattoroos 20 MJB5990 28 DutchQuicksilver 59 wattoroos 30 JAW97 25 JAW97 19 JAW97 27 d_view7 56 Costaz 28 SpaceHorseParty 24 * Forecast 16 Makarias 27 MJB5990 51 Bleu 25 DutchQuicksilver 20 Wander 16 Brawn BGP 001 26 wattoroos 51 Brawn BGP 001 25 HeidfeldsBeard 20 mark f1 15 SpaceHorseParty 26 Grayson 50 kismet 25 KWSN-DSM 20 DutchQuicksilver 14 wattoroos 26 fisichella_2001 49 Makarias 25 MJB5990 20 Bleu 13 AcuraF1 20 Costaz 45 jjcale 23 noikeee 20 MJB5990 12 The Snowman 20 kismet 45 * Forecast 22 d_view7 19 * Current 12 DutchQuicksilver 18 * Current 44 fisichella_2001 22 Wander 19 AcuraF1 10 noikeee 17 Brawn BGP 001 37 * Current 16 AcuraF1 18 d_view7 8 Costaz 9 noikeee 29 noikeee 13 Barty 10 noikeee 8 M2000-5 8 jjcale 23 MJB5990 6 M2000-5 8 HeidfeldsBeard 6 d_view7 0 Barty 0 Barty 0 Costaz 7 M2000-5 4Hülkenberg keeps his surprise chances alive, but needs really good results in the remaining races.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- mark f1 1722,1 -5,0 KWSN-DSM 1715,5 -8,2 scheivlak 1689,5 -2,5 kismet 1684,2 13,1 Wander 1672,4 -13,4 Grayson 1667,8 -14,9 noikeee 1662,2 -8,2 Makarias 1661,1 -7,6 wattoroos 1661,0 -19,0 DutchQuicksilver 1657,5 -5,0 fisichella_2001 1655,0 -19,0 MJB5990 1645,2 -8,2 The Snowman 1645,0 -7,3 Bleu 1642,0 -7,3 SpaceHorseParty 1639,5 -12,4 JAW97 1623,6 -7,2 Brawn BGP 001 1622,8 -4,9 d_view7 1615,9 -6,3 HeidfeldsBeard 1611,2 -12,6 jjcale 1607,9 -6,8 M2000-5 1597,1 7,0 Apex 1586,7 -13,2 AcuraF1 1579,4 -15,0 Costaz 1568,0 -10,8 Barty 1500,8 -16,6Negative trend this round with Massa going pointless along with the RBRs.
