The standings after Russia:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) scheivlak 1436 60 2) mark f1 1423 59 3) The Snowman 1416 67 4) wattoroos 1411 59 5) fisichella_2001 1408 55 6) KWSN-DSM 1407 59 7) Bleu 1393 61 = Grayson 1393 60 9) kismet 1389 54 10) Wander 1385 59 11) Makarias 1377 56 12) jjcale 1375 60 13) HeidfeldsBeard 1363 59 14) noikeee 1362 56 = SpaceHorseParty 1362 59 16) Brawn BGP 001 1359 57 17) DutchQuicksilver 1355 59 18) JAW97 1345 59 19) MJB5990 1338 53 20) AcuraF1 1336 59 21) d_view7 1325 67 22) Apex 1317 55 23) Costaz 1299 55 24) M2000-5 1295 49 25) Barty 1228 53Pretty small differences in the scores this round. 67 at most, which isn't that much.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Nasr 296,2 86,2 23 Pere 246,3 114,9 25 Eric 208,3 33,3 22 Vett 137,4 114,0 25 Hülk 123,7 55,9 18 Vers 113,6 43,4 19 Räik 85,6 47,9 5 Hami 82,3 72,9 0 Gros 76,7 47,3 4 Rosb 71,6 60,7 0 Mass 70,0 56,2 1 Kvya 66,4 40,9 1 Mald 61,9 27,5 3 Sain 61,6 30,8 5 Bott 56,7 44,6 0 Ricc 39,1 29,1 0 Alon 12,6 8,7 0 Butt 11,6 7,5 0Sergio Perez becomes the second 100% surprise of the year! Hurrah!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2015 this is 25.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Vettel Perez Massa Kvyat JAW97 413 * Potential 336 * Potential 154 * Potential 209 jjcale 185 mark f1 410 * Forecast 299 * Forecast 68 M2000-5 193 * Potential 176 M2000-5 408 * Current 236 * Current 54 AcuraF1 184 MJB5990 154 MJB5990 405 scheivlak 206 kismet 46 SpaceHorseParty 181 HeidfeldsBeard 138 * Potential 402 wattoroos 205 Bleu 40 The Snowman 175 Makarias 135 Makarias 401 M2000-5 203 jjcale 35 Makarias 173 DutchQuicksilver132 Brawn BGP 001 400 fisichella_2001 197 mark f1 35 JAW97 169 wattoroos 131 * Forecast 383 noikeee 197 SpaceHorseParty 33 Brawn BGP 001 168 kismet 130 noikeee 382 The Snowman 196 Apex 30 wattoroos 165 Costaz 126 Costaz 375 Makarias 191 KWSN-DSM 30 Apex 160 fisichella_2001 124 kismet 375 mark f1 190 Wander 30 Barty 160 noikeee 121 d_view7 370 Grayson 180 fisichella_2001 27 Grayson 160 Apex 115 Grayson 370 KWSN-DSM 180 scheivlak 27 KWSN-DSM 160 Wander 113 SpaceHorseParty 365 DutchQuicksilver173 Grayson 25 MJB5990 159 AcuraF1 112 DutchQuicksilver362 HeidfeldsBeard 168 Makarias 25 fisichella_2001 158 JAW97 112 fisichella_2001 362 Wander 168 wattoroos 25 Bleu 157 SpaceHorseParty 112 Apex 360 MJB5990 167 Brawn BGP 001 24 noikeee 155 Grayson 110 KWSN-DSM 359 kismet 166 HeidfeldsBeard 22 HeidfeldsBeard 150 mark f1 110 jjcale 350 d_view7 165 MJB5990 19 mark f1 150 Barty 105 Wander 350 AcuraF1 164 noikeee 15 Wander 150 d_view7 104 HeidfeldsBeard 346 Brawn BGP 001 163 The Snowman 15 Costaz 149 Bleu 100 Bleu 345 SpaceHorseParty 159 JAW97 13 * Forecast 138 KWSN-DSM 96 AcuraF1 344 Bleu 158 DutchQuicksilver 12 DutchQuicksilver138 * Forecast 96 Barty 341 JAW97 157 Costaz 9 scheivlak 131 scheivlak 95 scheivlak 335 jjcale 151 AcuraF1 6 d_view7 125 The Snowman 88 wattoroos 330 Costaz 145 M2000-5 5 jjcale 125 Brawn BGP 001 86 The Snowman 312 Barty 125 Barty 0 * Current 109 * Current 76 * Current 302 Apex 120 d_view7 0 kismet 97 M2000-5 26Massa beats kismet's guess. Hamilton has The Snowman's guess within sight now.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Nasr Maldonado Räikkönen Button Verstappen * Potential 125 * Potential 122 M2000-5 256 * Potential 108 * Potential 133 * Forecast 32 SpaceHorseParty 79 * Potential 223 Brawn BGP 001 106 scheivlak 75 The Snowman 28 M2000-5 65 Barty 208 d_view7 101 jjcale 73 d_view7 25 HeidfeldsBeard 57 kismet 167 Bleu 98 Brawn BGP 001 55 * Current 25 The Snowman 52 noikeee 165 Apex 95 Makarias 48 noikeee 20 KWSN-DSM 51 MJB5990 163 Barty 94 * Forecast 42 Brawn BGP 001 18 AcuraF1 50 DutchQuicksilver161 Costaz 91 Bleu 35 jjcale 17 Apex 45 KWSN-DSM 160 wattoroos 80 Grayson 35 scheivlak 12 mark f1 45 * Forecast 156 kismet 79 * Current 33 Costaz 11 Wander 42 Wander 156 HeidfeldsBeard 77 The Snowman 32 Apex 10 Grayson 40 d_view7 155 Grayson 75 wattoroos 31 KWSN-DSM 10 scheivlak 40 wattoroos 150 DutchQuicksilver 73 fisichella_2001 30 AcuraF1 8 DutchQuicksilver 35 Bleu 140 Wander 73 mark f1 30 DutchQuicksilver 8 JAW97 34 jjcale 140 fisichella_2001 71 kismet 27 M2000-5 8 d_view7 32 mark f1 140 The Snowman 71 Apex 25 Wander 8 wattoroos 30 scheivlak 140 JAW97 68 JAW97 25 HeidfeldsBeard 6 Costaz 28 The Snowman 138 noikeee 67 SpaceHorseParty 24 mark f1 5 * Forecast 28 AcuraF1 130 AcuraF1 66 DutchQuicksilver 20 fisichella_2001 4 Bleu 25 Grayson 130 MJB5990 63 HeidfeldsBeard 20 wattoroos 4 Brawn BGP 001 25 SpaceHorseParty 130 SpaceHorseParty 54 KWSN-DSM 20 JAW97 3 kismet 25 JAW97 126 KWSN-DSM 49 MJB5990 20 Makarias 3 Makarias 25 HeidfeldsBeard 124 scheivlak 48 noikeee 20 Bleu 2 jjcale 23 * Current 123 mark f1 40 d_view7 19 kismet 1 fisichella_2001 22 fisichella_2001 113 Makarias 39 Wander 19 Barty 0 * Current 22 Costaz 112 jjcale 32 AcuraF1 18 Grayson 0 noikeee 13 Brawn BGP 001 97 M2000-5 15 Barty 10 MJB5990 0 MJB5990 6 Makarias 97 * Forecast 10 M2000-5 8 SpaceHorseParty 0 Barty 0 Apex 95 * Current 8 Costaz 7Nasr only needs four more points for a 100% surprise. Perfectly realistic, but will it happen?
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- mark f1 1707,7 -14,5 KWSN-DSM 1688,9 -26,6 scheivlak 1678,7 -10,8 Wander 1651,1 -21,3 Grayson 1649,6 -18,2 Makarias 1648,8 -12,3 kismet 1647,6 -36,6 wattoroos 1646,6 -14,4 fisichella_2001 1640,7 -14,3 noikeee 1639,3 -22,9 Bleu 1635,3 -6,7 DutchQuicksilver 1631,9 -25,6 MJB5990 1622,9 -22,3 The Snowman 1621,1 -23,9 SpaceHorseParty 1617,3 -22,2 JAW97 1613,9 -9,8 Brawn BGP 001 1608,8 -14,0 d_view7 1594,1 -21,9 HeidfeldsBeard 1590,1 -21,1 jjcale 1586,9 -21,1 M2000-5 1570,2 -26,9 AcuraF1 1567,1 -12,3 Apex 1565,3 -21,4 Costaz 1549,0 -19,0 Barty 1469,9 -30,9All forecasts down as Rosberg DNFs and Kimi does poorly and points keep piling on to Vettel and Perez which is all a waste at this point, unless you are Vettel or Perez.