86 replies to this topic

[HeadFirst]

2016 - Vettel (Ferrari)

2017 - Alonso (McLaren-Honda)

2018 - Rosberg (Red Bull-VW))

2019 - Vettel - (Ferrari)

2020 - Ricciardo (Ferrari)

2021 - Vandoorne (McLaren-Honda)

2022 - Vandoorne (McLaren-Honda)

2023 - Verstappen (Red Bull-VW)

2024 - Hamilton Williams-Mercedes

2025 - Sargeant (Haas-Ford)

Edited by HeadFirst, 28 October 2015 - 16:24.

[Hamandeggs]

2016 - Vettel (Ferrari)
2017 - Alonso (McLaren-Honda)
2018 - Rosberg (Red Bull-VW))
2019 - Vettel - (Ferrari)
2020 - Ricciardo (Ferrari)
2021 - Vandoorne (McLaren-Honda)
2022 - Vandoorne (McLaren-Honda)
2023 - Verstappen (Red Bull-VW)
2024 - Hamilton Williams-Mercedes
2025 - Sargeant (Haas-Ford)
SARGEANT LOGAN
SARGEANT LOGAN

I dreamt Lewis would finish with a title for Williams.... his 5th. Would be a perfect end.

[alframsey]

I would only feel confident with predicting next season, I'd go with Lewis for a fourth WDC. How can we possibly make predictions ten years in advance, we still don't know how the 2017 rule change will play out.

[Starchild]

On topic, I hope vandoorne gets a good seat for next tear, he together with Ghiotto, Wehrlein and Ocon are the nicest talents on the radar imho. So good future prospects for Dutch, Belgium, Italian and French fans. Will suck for the British once Hamilton retires.

I'm not so sure of Ghiotto. He is a strange one to judge. Last season he was awful in F3.5, only 17th, and this season he is awesome in gp3.  

Wehrlein is good but imo there are some better german talents out there, Beckmann and Kirchofer.

I don't know why you think there is lack of british talents, cause that is definitely not the case. They have some great talents out there. Jack Aitken (2015 Formula 2.0 Eurocup and Alps champion), Oli Rowland (2015 F3.5 Champion), Ben Barnicoat, Alex Lynn...

[Gyan]

This is silly, but oh, what the hell

 

2016 - Daniel Ricciardo - Red Bull-?

2017 - Max Verstappen - Red Bull-?

2018 - Max Verstappen - Red Bull-?

2019 - Sebastian Vettel - Ferrari

2020 - Anthony 'Fire' Fuoco - Ferrari

2021 - Daniel Ricciardo - Alonso-Renault

2022 - Max Verstappen - Mercedes

2023 - Some unknown kid - Volskwagen

2024 - Same unknown kid - Volskwagen

2025 - Some unknown kid - Volkswagen

[Hamandeggs]

2016: Hamilton (Mercedes)
2017: Vettel (Ferrari)
2018: Alonso (Mercedes)
2019: Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari)
2020: Verstappen (Red Bull)
2021: Verstappen (Red Bull)
2022: Hamilton (Williams) and after that who cares:)
2023: Ricciardo(Ferrari)
2024:Verstappen Ferrari
2025:Verstappen Ferrari

[Marklar]

Hamilton title in a Williams...that would be the greatest thing ever...

[zanquis]

I don't know why you think there is lack of british talents, cause that is definitely not the case. They have some great talents out there. Jack Aitken (2015 Formula 2.0 Eurocup and Alps champion), Oli Rowland (2015 F3.5 Champion), Ben Barnicoat, Alex Lynn...

For starters because a few of those drivers you mention I rate as mweh, kinda like Sam Bird at best... And the others I find hard to judge as I feel the competition was lacking. Sorry but that is how I rate them. I hope I am wrong on one of those but there has not been a single british talent out there since Hamilton that makes me feel that is one to watch.

[sopa]

Here is a similar thread from 2005: http://forums.autosp...win-next-5-wdcs

 

Quite fun LOL.

 

I think life proves convincingly that it is very hard if not impossible to predict anything beyond 2-3 years. Anything can happen.

 

Maybe Mercedes sells the team to a Cambodian businessman after 2018. And Monster Energy Drinks buys the remnants of the Sauber team to build it into a dominant team by 2021.

 

There are so many possibilities in the air in so many different ways you can't make an educated guess!

[Dunc]

ps in 2005, at any point in 2005, who would have predicted Mercedes and Red Bull would be dominant WC players? Why would you predict they will for the next 10?

 

Do we even know what the rules package will be in 2020?

 

I very much agree with this.  Back in 2005 it looked like we were entering the Alonso/Kimi era with Ferrari and McLaren set to remain the doninant contructors.  Fast forward 10 years and both drivers have (compared to what was expected of them) underperformed and neither constructor has won the WCC since 2008.

 

I think Lewis will win next year but in a title fight with Vettel.  After that Ferrari will go into another decline and McLaren or Renault will become the main challenger to Merc, beating them to the 2017 title.

[noikeee]

It might always be hard to make predictions but at this stage it's particularly harder I think. We're at a weird unstable stage where there's no big up-and-coming team, there's reasonable doubt about whether some of the leading teams will even remain in F1 for long (not just Red Bull, both Red Bull and Mercedes have done it all and completed their F1 marketing goals), and we don't know neither what kind of regulation changes we're about to get in just a year or two. By contrast a couple years ago I remember a similar thread and everyone picked Mercedes as future world champions, despite them being upper midfielders - because we all suspected they were favourites to get the new engine right and there weren't many other full blown manufacturers left. Of course, it's not always that predictable: the 2005 threads are funny because people thought Toyota were on course to dominate.

 

Driver-wise I think the favourites from the current grid to win titles are Hamilton, Vettel, Ricciardo and Verstappen. There's still Alonso and Button (but stuck in a ditch with an underperforming team when they've not got many years left), and we're spoiled with a deep pool of talent where several good drivers could get a title in the right circumstances, but certainly those stand out. Outside of F1 it's always harder to drop names, specially when you're talking about a 10-year time frame when those guys could be in karting still, but I'd reduce a shortlist of potential champions to just Vandoorne and Ocon. Outside chance for Rowland, Leclerc, Kirchoffer, Wehrlein. Knowing how the ladder works half of these guys won't even get a single GP start.

 

Ok, let's play the game then:

 

2016 - Hamilton (Mercedes)

2017 - Ricciardo (Red Bull)

2018 - Hamilton (Mercedes)

2019 - Vettel (Ferrari)

2020 - Vettel (Ferrari)

2021 - Verstappen (Red Bull)

2022 - Verstappen (Red Bull)

2023 - Hamilton (McLaren)

2024 - Ocon (Renault)

2025 - Verstappen (Ferrari)

 

Mind you, this is still probably very optimistic by naming 5 different teams as champions and nobody able to retain titles for 3 years in a row...

Edited by noikeee, 28 October 2015 - 11:32.

[sopa]

 

 

Mind you, this is still probably very optimistic by naming 5 different teams as champions and nobody able to retain titles for 3 years in a row...

 

 

Yeah...

 

Now that you mention it...

 

Looking at F1 history, usually there are some pretty clear eras in which a certain team has an edge.

 

1991-97 Williams (with Benetton only occasionally matching/bettering them).

98-00 McLaren

00-04 Ferrari (with 03 as an outlier with close competition)

05-06 the prime of Renault

07-08 final big battle between Ferrari and McLaren

09 - an extraordinary messy year (happens once in decades)

10-13 Red Bull

14-... Mercedes

 

We will surely get another benchmark team during the next 10 years, and as the recent Vettel & Hamilton examples show, it is damn important to sit at the right place at the right time, and you could get lots of consecutive titles.

 

Max Verstappen becoming a WDC in 2020-2023 in a new dominant e.DAMS-Nissan package in an all-electric new formula? Who knows!

[Dunc]

Hamilton title in a Williams...that would be the greatest thing ever...

 

Jizz.  In.  My.  Pants.

[kpastri]

Very few seem to expect FA to win another one (or more), especially with McLaren-Honda. Is it because of this year's disappointment?

[Jimisgod]

Based on the last few seasons...

 

2015 -- HAM -- Mercedes

2014 -- HAM -- Mercedes

2013 -- VET -- Red Bull Renault

2012 -- VET -- Red Bull Renault

2011 -- VET -- Red Bull Renault

2010 -- VET -- Red Bull Renault

2009 -- BUT -- BrawnGP Mercedes

2008 -- HAM -- McLaren Mercedes

2007 -- RAI -- Ferrari

2006 -- ALO --Renault

 

What you have is 3 people who were proven "young guns" and 2 who were known quantities in junior series. The teams were all established or manufacturers except for Red Bull and Brawn.

 

An educated guess would be that the titles will probably go to Hamilton and Vettel in the next 2-3 years, then known young guns like Ricciardo and Verstappen in the medium term, and finally junior series drivers like Vandoorne, Ocon and currently unidentified 14-17 year olds in the mid term to end of the decade.

 

If I had to bet, then I'd put down Hamilton, Vettel, Ricciardo, Verstappen, Vandoorne and 1 or 2 yet unknown young drivers as the champions in the next 10 years.

[DESCHAIN]

Too many variables for predicting anything beyond 2017 right now.

 

That said, I think there's one more title in the Hamilton-Merc package, albeit heavily assaulted by Vettel. This will prompt Merc to rely on team orders trough 2016 and that in turn would force Rosberg out to pastures new. In comes Wherlein for 2017, the big rules revamp had been postponed to 2018.

With a less experienced teammate Hamilton relaxes too much, Merc can't take enough points off Vettel and Ferrari clinches Driver and Constructor's championships with Vettel along Grosjean; Vettel retires having  won his 5th title.

 

Then, as always, Ferrari hits a slump in form once the rule changes came into effect. The new Daimler board elects to cut spending on marketing leaving the team out to dry, Williams takes the Merc Works relationship and Hamilton. Brackley is bought out for 1£ by Ross Brawn with a chinese manufacturer backing...

 

By 2019, Red Bull VW gets its PU and design sorted and his loyal drivers (by loyal I mean watertight-contracted) Ricciardo & Verstappen make an impression, Ricciardo takes it.

 

It can continue.

 

2016 - Hamilton, Merc

2017 - Vettel, Ferrari

2018 - Alonso, Brawn GP Powered by BYD.

2019 - Ricciardo, Red Bull VW

[Carrinthe]

Well, let's have a shot. 

 

2016 - Hamilton (Mercedes)

2017 - Vettel (Ferrari)

2018 - Ricciardo (Red Bull)

2019 -​ Verstappen  (Red Bull)

2020 - ​Verstappen  (Ferrari)

2021 - ​Verstappen  (Ferrari)

2022 - Ricciardo (Mercedes)

2023 - Ricciardo (Mercedes)

2024 - ​Verstappen  (Ferrari)

2025 - Ocon (Renault)

Edited by Carrinthe, 28 October 2015 - 12:54.

[JitenRajShah]

2016: Lewis or Vettel
2017: Alonso (McLaren-Honda)
2018: Vandoorne (McLaren-Honda)
2019: Vandoorne (McLaren-Honda)
2020: Vandoorne (McLaren-Honda)
 

[milestone 11]

2016: Sebastian Vettel (Ferrari)
2017: Pascal Wehrlein (Mercedes)
2018: Jann Mardenborough (Toro Rosso)
2019: Lois Hamilton (Ferrari)
2020: Lindsay Lohan (Disney Channel)
2021: Donald Trump (Haas)
2022: Razer (Razer)
2023: Nicole Scherzinger (Hamilton)
2024: Vladimir V Putin (Mikoyan)
2025: Nico Rosberg (Mercedes)

Nah, Lewis has no intention of owning a team.

[milestone 11]

It's a bit like round here when someone asks "How good a poster is he?" "Uh... as good as Stonefeld?" And then we're at the back muttering that Stonefeld was not this perfect idealized god and actually his conduct was very harmful to postership among the generation that idolized him.

Some bird on a Canadian train appreciated him.

[MP422]

2016 Verstappen (Toro Rosso)
2017 Verstappen (Mercedes)
2018 Verstappen (Mercedes)
2019 Verstappen (Ferrari)
2020 Verstappen (Ferrari)
2021 Verstappen (Ferrari)
2022 Verstappen (Haas)
2023 Verstappen (Haas)
2024 Verstappen (Manor)
2025 Verstappen (Verstappen GP)

 

I'm dying....   

[Kev00]

2016: HAM (merc)
2017: HAM (merc)
2018: HAM (merc)
2019: VES (merc)
2020: HAM (ferrari)
2021: VES (merc)
2022: VES (merc)
2023: RIC (ferrari)
2024: VES (ferrari)
2025: VES (ferrari)

[Ross Stonefeld]

Some bird on a Canadian train appreciated him.

 

I thought it was NYC? Suddenly the cachet is...

[Dunc]

Very few seem to expect FA to win another one (or more), especially with McLaren-Honda. Is it because of this year's disappointment?

I have to admit I doubt he will win another one now unless a lot happens. 

 

I question how long McLaren Honda will take to become a winning team given the circumstances they are in and think it may be longer than FA wants to stay in F1.  Part of success in F1 is down to being in the right car at the right time and FA has managed to constantly get in the wrong car at the wrong time since 2007.

 

In 2008 he should have either stayed at McLaren or gone to BMW and I have no doubt he would have challenged for the title that year; 2009 was an anomolly but in 2010 he should have pushed to replace Webber at Red Bull or Button at Brawn/Mercedes rather than go to Ferrari - the former would have brought instant success the latter would have been a good long-term project - but by choosing the tiffosi and signing up for a long-term deal he condmned himself to underperforming cars. Alternatively he could have pushed to get a deal with Merc for 2013 given that his success in 2012 was down more to him than Ferrari.  In any case he could be in a much better position than he is now if he had made better choices.  Everything looks good in hindsight but some of his decisions do seem to have been pretty illogical over the years.

 

Back OT, I think an outside bet could be Button quitting Macca and landing a drive in a good car for his F1 twilight years.  I could see him doing something in a competetive Renault or a Williams.

[Zava]

I'm dying....   

2026: Verstappen (van Amersfoort racing, Dallara F312 chassis, VW 2L inline 4 cylinder engine)

Edited by Zava, 28 October 2015 - 14:21.

[yhidotobing]

2016 Lewis Hamilton(Mercedes)

2017 Rio Haryanto (Williams)

2018 Rio Haryanto (Williams)

2019 Rio Haryanto (Williams)

2020 Rio Haryanto (Williams)

2021 Rio Haryanto (Williams)

2022 Rio Haryanto (Williams)

2023 Rio Haryanto (Williams)

2024 Rio Haryanto (Williams)

2025 Rio Haryanto (Williams)

 

[kpastri]

When Alonso joined Ferrari, nobody would even dare to think that he made the wrong choice. At that time it was indeed the right one. Ferrari failing to deliver a decent car is something entirely different.

The question is: If McLaren-Honda miraculously produce a competitive can in the next two years, is Alonso (still) capable of defeating Hamilton or Vettel?

[Ross Stonefeld]

Give him a car .250 seconds a lap quicker than theirs, and absolutely.

[kpastri]

Absolutely right

[scheivlak]

When Alonso joined Ferrari, nobody would even dare to think that he made the wrong choice. At that time it was indeed the right one. Ferrari failing to deliver a decent car is something entirely different.

 

We're getting OT, but the 2010 Ferrari F10 was a decent car.

[Dunc]

We're getting OT, but the 2010 Ferrari F10 was a decent car.

The 2010 Ferrari was but after that they were never good enough for a title challenge.  He should have quit after 2012 and found another seat.  His move to Renault in 2008 was also a bad one, BMW were interested in him and had he gone there he could have challenged for the title.

 

I agree though, this is OT and it's my fault.

 

I have a feeling history may repeat with Vettel though, while his move to Ferrari seems good now I can see it heading south pretty quickly meaning he won't be a WDC challenger if he stays in the long-term.  I think if you go to Ferrari you need to put a time-limit on your time there.

[FerrariV12]

ps in 2005, at any point in 2005, who would have predicted Mercedes and Red Bull would be dominant WC players? Why would you predict they will for the next 10?

 

Do we even know what the rules package will be in 2020?

 

 

Or, to put it another way, if in 1997 if you'd said the successors to the Tyrrell and Stewart teams would monopolise all championships from 2009-2015, and that in the time period 2005-2015 Williams and the successor to Minardi would win the same number of races, you'd probably be carted off in a white van.

 

So on that basis 2025 will be won by someone I haven't heard of yet driving for some team that bought Manor in the intervening period

 

In all seriousness it's why I never get too stressed by any period of particular team or driver domination. It never lasts.

Edited by FerrariV12, 28 October 2015 - 15:35.

[Dolph]

2016: Will Power (Haas)

2017: More Power (Newman-Haas)

2018: Even more Power (Newman-Haas-Lanigan)

2019: Quadruple Power (Newman-Haas-Lanigan-Kalkhoven)

2020: Will-Will-Will-Will-Will Power (Newman-Haas-Lanigan-Kalkhoven-Vasser)

2021: Will ^6 ((Newman-Haas-Lanigan-Kalkhoven-Vasser-Carpenter)

etc.

 

eh?

[GTA]

Want to see Fernando win another WDC. 2x WDC doesn't justify his talent and skills. Vettel will probably win two more and Hamilton one more before the new guys take over.

[HeadFirst]

I dreamt Lewis would finish with a title for Williams.... his 5th. Would be a perfect end.

 

Me too. I soooo much wanted to see Lewis jump to Williams, instead of re-signing with Mercedes. I think that the combination of Lewis and Williams would be one for the ages.

[SR388]

Me too. I soooo much wanted to see Lewis jump to Williams, instead of re-signing with Mercedes. I think that the combination of Lewis and Williams would be one for the ages.

Lewis at Williams gives me the warm and fuzzies.

[DESCHAIN]

I'm not a Hamilton fan but something about him joining Williams somtime Down the líne sounds just right.

Edited by DESCHAIN, 28 October 2015 - 17:10.