The standings after Brazil:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) scheivlak 1651 54 2) mark f1 1649 76 3) KWSN-DSM 1636 72 4) fisichella_2001 1617 62 = Grayson 1617 71 6) kismet 1616 79 7) Makarias 1605 64 = wattoroos 1605 58 9) Wander 1597 63 10) Bleu 1594 48 11) The Snowman 1588 52 12) SpaceHorseParty 1584 71 13) jjcale 1583 53 14) DutchQuicksilver 1577 75 15) Brawn BGP 001 1575 55 16) noikeee 1573 71 17) JAW97 1563 67 18) HeidfeldsBeard 1556 48 19) MJB5990 1554 75 20) d_view7 1546 76 21) Apex 1534 61 22) AcuraF1 1533 53 23) Costaz 1510 60 24) M2000-5 1497 70 25) Barty 1423 53THE EXCITEMENT
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Nasr 319,9 93,1 24 Pere 310,2 144,7 25 Eric 208,3 33,3 22 Hülk 169,2 76,5 23 Vers 168,7 64,5 22 Vett 154,8 128,5 25 Hami 98,9 87,7 13 Räik 93,9 52,5 10 Rosb 92,9 78,8 2 Sain 92,4 46,2 10 Gros 85,5 52,7 6 Kvya 82,2 50,5 3 Mald 75,9 33,8 9 Mass 75,1 60,3 1 Bott 69,4 54,6 1 Ricc 45,0 33,5 0 Butt 23,2 15,0 1 Alon 12,6 8,7 0And Hamilton doesn't get to 100% yet... A DNF in Abu Dhabi and we'll label his season a disappointment.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2015 this is 25.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Rosberg Hamilton Vettel Räikkönen Bottas Barty 376 JAW97 413 * Potential 291 M2000-5 256 Costaz 248 jjcale 375 mark f1 410 * Forecast 281 Barty 208 d_view7 240 d_view7 355 M2000-5 408 * Current 266 kismet 167 M2000-5 236 M2000-5 353 MJB5990 405 scheivlak 206 noikeee 165 Apex 230 The Snowman 336 Makarias 401 wattoroos 205 MJB5990 163 Barty 230 noikeee 330 Brawn BGP 001 400 M2000-5 203 DutchQuicksilver161 AcuraF1 218 MJB5990 329 * Potential 388 fisichella_2001 197 * Potential 160 fisichella_2001 210 * Potential 322 * Forecast 383 noikeee 197 KWSN-DSM 160 Grayson 210 Costaz 320 noikeee 382 The Snowman 196 Wander 156 The Snowman 208 Grayson 320 Costaz 375 Makarias 191 d_view7 155 JAW97 207 mark f1 320 kismet 375 mark f1 190 wattoroos 150 Brawn BGP 001 201 KWSN-DSM 317 d_view7 370 Grayson 180 * Forecast 143 Bleu 200 * Forecast 314 Grayson 370 KWSN-DSM 180 Bleu 140 SpaceHorseParty 199 SpaceHorseParty 313 SpaceHorseParty 365 DutchQuicksilver173 jjcale 140 noikeee 192 HeidfeldsBeard 312 * Current 363 HeidfeldsBeard 168 mark f1 140 scheivlak 190 kismet 312 DutchQuicksilver362 Wander 168 scheivlak 140 DutchQuicksilver188 DutchQuicksilver311 fisichella_2001 362 MJB5990 167 The Snowman 138 mark f1 185 Apex 310 Apex 360 kismet 166 * Current 135 Wander 185 Wander 310 KWSN-DSM 359 d_view7 165 AcuraF1 130 wattoroos 185 wattoroos 307 jjcale 350 AcuraF1 164 Grayson 130 HeidfeldsBeard 172 JAW97 305 Wander 350 Brawn BGP 001 163 SpaceHorseParty 130 Makarias 170 Makarias 303 HeidfeldsBeard 346 SpaceHorseParty 159 JAW97 126 MJB5990 164 AcuraF1 302 Bleu 345 Bleu 158 HeidfeldsBeard 124 * Potential 161 Brawn BGP 001 302 AcuraF1 344 JAW97 157 fisichella_2001 113 KWSN-DSM 160 fisichella_2001 301 Barty 341 jjcale 151 Costaz 112 kismet 154 * Current 297 scheivlak 335 Costaz 145 Brawn BGP 001 97 * Forecast 144 scheivlak 290 wattoroos 330 Barty 125 Makarias 97 * Current 136 Bleu 280 The Snowman 312 Apex 120 Apex 95 jjcale 114Rosberg beats his first guys! Hurrah!
Guesses on P6-P10:
Hülkenberg Kvyat Grosjean Verstappen Maldonado * Potential 77 jjcale 185 SpaceHorseParty 92 scheivlak 75 SpaceHorseParty 79 kismet 67 MJB5990 154 KWSN-DSM 90 * Potential 74 M2000-5 65 Bleu 63 HeidfeldsBeard 138 scheivlak 80 jjcale 73 HeidfeldsBeard 57 * Forecast 55 Makarias 135 The Snowman 79 Brawn BGP 001 55 * Potential 52 * Current 52 DutchQuicksilver132 M2000-5 77 * Forecast 52 The Snowman 52 jjcale 47 wattoroos 131 * Potential 74 * Current 49 KWSN-DSM 51 scheivlak 45 kismet 130 Wander 70 Makarias 48 AcuraF1 50 KWSN-DSM 44 Costaz 126 AcuraF1 68 Bleu 35 Apex 45 Apex 43 fisichella_2001 124 HeidfeldsBeard 68 Grayson 35 mark f1 45 mark f1 40 noikeee 121 Apex 65 The Snowman 32 Wander 42 fisichella_2001 36 * Potential 119 Makarias 64 wattoroos 31 Grayson 40 Grayson 35 Apex 115 JAW97 63 fisichella_2001 30 scheivlak 40 Wander 35 Wander 113 Bleu 62 mark f1 30 DutchQuicksilver 35 HeidfeldsBeard 31 AcuraF1 112 mark f1 60 kismet 27 JAW97 34 Barty 30 JAW97 112 DutchQuicksilver 59 Apex 25 d_view7 32 MJB5990 28 SpaceHorseParty 112 d_view7 56 JAW97 25 wattoroos 30 JAW97 27 Grayson 110 * Forecast 52 SpaceHorseParty 24 * Forecast 29 Makarias 27 mark f1 110 MJB5990 51 DutchQuicksilver 20 Costaz 28 Brawn BGP 001 26 Barty 105 wattoroos 51 HeidfeldsBeard 20 * Current 27 SpaceHorseParty 26 d_view7 104 Grayson 50 KWSN-DSM 20 Bleu 25 wattoroos 26 Bleu 100 fisichella_2001 49 MJB5990 20 Brawn BGP 001 25 AcuraF1 20 * Forecast 99 * Current 49 noikeee 20 kismet 25 The Snowman 20 KWSN-DSM 96 Costaz 45 d_view7 19 Makarias 25 DutchQuicksilver 18 scheivlak 95 kismet 45 Wander 19 jjcale 23 noikeee 17 * Current 94 Brawn BGP 001 37 AcuraF1 18 fisichella_2001 22 Costaz 9 The Snowman 88 noikeee 29 Barty 10 noikeee 13 M2000-5 8 Brawn BGP 001 86 jjcale 23 M2000-5 8 MJB5990 6 d_view7 0 M2000-5 26 Barty 0 Costaz 7 Barty 0Hülk needs a P2 in Abu Dhabi to get to a 100% surprise. The most realistic chance is for Felipe Nasr, who needs a P9 there to make it.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- mark f1 1720,3 -0,1 KWSN-DSM 1687,9 2,5 scheivlak 1685,2 -10,0 kismet 1673,3 14,3 Grayson 1669,4 -2,7 Makarias 1660,3 -12,7 wattoroos 1652,4 -3,4 fisichella_2001 1647,4 -11,7 Wander 1647,2 1,3 noikeee 1641,4 4,0 The Snowman 1633,9 -1,6 SpaceHorseParty 1632,7 -1,8 Bleu 1630,1 -0,9 DutchQuicksilver 1628,2 2,3 jjcale 1626,1 2,6 MJB5990 1625,6 2,3 Brawn BGP 001 1624,1 -15,8 JAW97 1621,8 -11,1 d_view7 1606,7 10,6 HeidfeldsBeard 1600,7 -1,7 Apex 1577,7 -4,8 AcuraF1 1567,7 -9,7 Costaz 1566,4 -2,7 M2000-5 1564,7 2,5 Barty 1473,9 2,3Slightly negative trend in forecasts. mark f1 looks pretty safe for the title, but I guess further analysis is required:
SEASON FINALE PREVIEW
A look at the current top six in the standings (presumable contenders) and how much they have left to score from some drivers:
Name Pts Hamilton mark f1 25 kismet 12 Grayson 7 Rosberg Grayson 23 mark f1 23 KWSN -DSM 20 kismet 15 fisichella_2001 4 Vettel Everyone 0 Räikkönen kismet 25 KWSN-DSM 25 mark f1 5 scheivlak 5 Bottas KWSN-DSM 24 kismet 18 The rest 25 Massa scheivlak 14 kismet 0 The Rest 25 Kvyat fisichella_2001 25 kismet 25 Grayson 16 mark f1 16 KWSN-DSM 2 scheivlak 1 Ricciardo Everyone 25 Perez Everyone 0 Hülkenberg kismet 15 Verstappen scheivlak 25 Grosjean KWSN-DSM 25 scheivlak 25 mark f1 11 Grayson 1 Hülkenberg kismet 15As long as the Mercedeses get to the finish in the usual fashion, mark f1 should take this, but a Hamilton DNF with some weird success for Räikkönen and some others might just give KWSN-DSM the title...
Edited by Makarias, 16 November 2015 - 17:20.
