46 replies to this topic

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

- Maurizio Arrivabene on 2016 Ferrari:

"If you want my honest expectation [for 2016], it is not to be closer to them but to be in front of them,"

 

- Toto Wolff on 2016 Ferrari:

"I am anticipating a robust challenge from Ferrari because they have done some clever moves, and they have definitely caught up"

 

- Toto Wolff on Ferrari-Haas relationship (Clever Ferrari):

"This is a sport about gaining advantage by interpreting the rules and if they did that then they deserved it"

 

- Toto Wolff on Mercedes 2016 plans to hold off clever Ferrari:

"You can get it pretty wrong if you go for a revolution of a car that performs pretty well already. We are not quite sure yet, there is some interesting stuff being drawn and in the wind tunnel, and one of those very interesting areas was on the car on Friday in Brazil.'

 

"It's a permanent evaluation between evolution and revolution and it's not yet clear where we want to take it, but at the moment it is just good to have secured the championship and be able to look at things."

 

- Christian Horner on 2016 Mercedes:

"I think the regulations are extremely stable for next year and obviously Mercedes will inevitably carry on the dominance, such is their margin"

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Mercedes obviously are saying that Ferrari have gained advantage for their relationship with HaasF1 and Ferrari will be competitive, although the advantage was legal.

 

Mercedes have analyzed some risky development paths to hold off clever Ferrari.

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So here is a poll but for three questions:

 

1. The frontrunner team in 2016 season?

2. McLarenHonda gap to the frontrunner team in 2016 season?

3. RedBull gap to the frontrunner team in 2016 season?

Edited by RYARLE, 03 December 2015 - 15:17.

[Jonnycraig37]

Merc will still be an absolute country mile ahead, and will be for years to come yet.

McLaren & RB are likely to start the season scrapping with TR & Renault at the back before RB drag themselves amongst the likes of Sauber & FI.

[Nathan]

Has there been any movement of aero staff from Mercedes to Ferrari?

 

Did Ferrari's clever move perhaps allow them to design an aerodynamically evolutionary car, and an aerodynamically revolutionary car, and allow them to decide which to use and which to pass off to Haas? (after further refining their choice design, of course)  What spurs this thinking was a recent comment from Gene Haas regarding his team taking a different approach than Ferrari regarding certain design concepts.  Probably not, but perhaps evolution trumped revolution and Haas was assigned the lesser design.

 

I haven't voted yet because this has got me thinking.  I wonder if Red Bull will be the dark barn yard animal next year.  I think at best McHonda will challenge the lead Merc customer.

Edited by Nathan, 03 December 2015 - 15:17.

[Marklar]

Mercedes ahead. Red Bull and McLaren each between 0.5-1 s away.

[Jonnycraig37]

Mercedes ahead. Red Bull and McLaren each between 0.5-1 s away.

You're being wildly optimistic there. Horner himself said in sky this weekend that they expect to be down the back at the start of the season, but think they can quickly develop the engine.

1 sec off the Mercs would put them closer then this season with an underdeveloped engine. I'd wager they will start 2 or 3 seconds off the pace with Toro Rosso.

[goingthedistance]

I wish it was neither. Neither team appeals to me, in terms of their drivers or their current management. And I despair of the fact that the two teams appear to have become pals, creating a cosy duopoly that controls the sport.

For what it's worth I think Mercedes will keep their ascendancy, if only by a narrower margin.

[Dan333SP]

I will be pleasantly surprised if the top 4 in the championship are not exactly the same as they were in 2015.

 

I think RBR will be ahead of Williams and much closer to Ferrari, but won't win any races. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if Mercedes take every pole and win every race in dry conditions. Wet weather obviously throws up a curveball, but a clean sweep shouldn't be a shock to anyone.

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

Has there been any movement of aero staff from Mercedes to Ferrari?

 

Did Ferrari's clever move perhaps allow them to design an aerodynamically evolutionary car, and an aerodynamically revolutionary car, and allow them to decide which to use and which to pass off to Haas? (after further refining their choice design, of course)  What spurs this thinking was a recent comment from Gene Haas regarding his team taking a different approach than Ferrari regarding certain design concepts.  Probably not, but perhaps evolution trumped revolution and Haas was assigned the lesser design.

 

I haven't voted yet because this has got me thinking.  I wonder if Red Bull will be the dark barn yard animal next year.  I think at best McHonda will challenge the lead Merc customer.

 

I am not sure about aero staff but having just additional time to use windtunnel or CFD is such a rewarding feature that could have made a big difference IMO.

 

When you compare the competitiveness of a car at the beginning of a season with the competitiveness of the developed same car in the middle of the season, you can always find 1 second to even 2 seconds lap times advantage in favor of the developed car.

 

Positive vibes from Ferrari are just more than obvious that they are serious to mount a challenge or even leapfrog Mercedes IMO.

Edited by RYARLE, 03 December 2015 - 15:31.

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

To be honest in my opinion, one of the reasons that Ferrari close the gap to Mercedes especially towards the end of the season was not only because of Ferrari's development, maybe Mercedes had to shift their focus more on their 2016 car to find a better solution because of Ferrari 2016 threat.

 

All in all it seems that Mercedes are convinced that they have a fight from Ferrari in their hands in 2016 season.

[Nonesuch]

- Toto Wolff on 2016 Ferrari:

"I am anticipating a robust challenge from Ferrari because they have done some clever moves, and they have definitely caught up"

 

How does he know? We'll have to wait and see.

 

Ferrari might have benefited from its clever windtunnel usage, but Mercedes' advantage is so enormous that it'll be a shock if anyone other than Mercedes goes into 2016 as the favourites.

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

How does he know? We'll have to wait and see.

 

Ferrari might have benefited from its clever windtunnel usage, but Mercedes' advantage is so enormous that it'll be a shock if anyone other than Mercedes goes into 2016 as the favourites.

Mercedes advantage over Ferrari is about 0.7 to 1.2 based on different tracks. Closing that gap with additional windtunnel or CFD usage is very realistic. It is like a car development through a season but double amount of that this time.

 

It is very interesting that Mercedes indirectly say that we know what Ferrari are doing and preparing, even though it is a legal one 

[ViMaMo]

Ferrari much closer to Mercedes. 

Mclaren improve with a few surprises in latter half of season showing potential for 2017. 

[Hyatt]

Looks like Vettel revitalized a Ferrari that was paralyzed by Fonzo for so long. They seem to have lots of momentum ... my cards are on Ferrari for 2016.

[KTownDevil]

Mercedes will still be ahead, but (I hope) not that much as we've seen 2014&15 and with more drama between Hamilton/Rosberg, Vettel could fight for the title. 

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

Looks like Vettel revitalized a Ferrari that was paralyzed by Fonzo for so long. They seem to have lots of momentum ... my cards are on Ferrari for 2016.

I thought

 

- Newly hired staff for design team

- Newly hired staff for powerunit team

- Budget increase

- Newly upgraded windtunnel

- Newly upgraded CFD facilities

- Newly upgraded simulator

 

have some roles too. Don't they? 

[Seanspeed]

Mercedes act like the pressure is on them, but I think Horner has it about right. It's Ferrari who have the hardest job of finding a big enough improvement in *all* areas to match, let alone beat Mercedes(who will also improve themselves) in a year that doesn't have any major regulation changes. Merc will still be heavy, heavy favorites for 2016. Ferrari need to pull out something special to make it a good fight.

Edited by Seanspeed, 03 December 2015 - 19:14.

[YoungGun]

Mercedes by a nose, but only if the bickering between Nico and Lewis is reigned in, as it seems to be having a negative effect on the team which will only escalate to mistakes both on and off track, favoring Ferrari.

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

Mercedes act like the pressure is on them, but I think Horner has it about right. It's Ferrari who have the hardest job of finding a big enough improvement in *all* areas to match, let alone beat Mercedes(who will also improve themselves) in a year that doesn't have any major regulation changes. Merc will still be heavy, heavy favorites for 2016. Ferrari need to pull out something special to make it a good fight.

Actually testing the S-Duct by Mercedes, shows that Mercedes indeed analyze some development paths to keep their advantage in 2016 season. So pressure is on Mercedes too.

 

Mercedes know that 2016 is still their best chance to clinch world titles compare to 2017. 2017 is going to be from almost zero.

Edited by RYARLE, 04 December 2015 - 08:34.

[Itsme]

After 2/3 years change is good. So I hope for Ferrari to beat Mercedes marginally and have a fight until the end between Seb and Lewis.  

[Quickshifter]

Mclaren will be there and Ferrari come the start of the season. Both these teams will be around 0.5-1 second off Mercedes. 

Edited by Quickshifter, 04 December 2015 - 09:43.

[V8 Fireworks]

Where is Williams!? Surely Williams will win WCC   

[Seanspeed]

Actually testing the S-Duct by Mercedes, shows that Mercedes indeed analyze some development paths to keep their advantage in 2016 season. So pressure is on Mercedes too.
 
Mercedes know that 2016 is still their best chance to clinch world titles compare to 2017. 2017 is going to be from almost zero.

I wasn't suggesting Mercedes weren't going to upgrade their car. Just that it's Ferrari who have the most difficult task and who have to dig real deep to find the gains necessary.

[blacky]

Mercedes! Ferrari won't built a winner-chassis and will always be this half of a second away. RBR more or less the same as this year, McLaren will dramaticaly catch up because of the ERS, but not enough, 1 sec away.

Edited by blacky, 04 December 2015 - 13:23.

[DutchQuicksilver]

Merc will still be an absolute country mile ahead, and will be for years to come yet.

McLaren & RB are likely to start the season scrapping with TR & Renault at the back before RB drag themselves amongst the likes of Sauber & FI.

Sauber has no money, they'll be at the back as well.

 

2016 could be a very strong season for Force India given the very stable regulations, they could finish as high as 4th in the championship.

[MikeV1987]

Ferrari hopefully, someone needs to put pressure on the Mercedes drivers. They hvae a hard enough time getting along just fighting for championships by themselves, I'd like to see what happens when they have some real competition.

[Szoelloe]

Ferrari - Vettel - ahead by mid-season.  Red Bull within 0,5s, Mclaren will be a big disappointment.

[UraNage]

imo , ferrari won't surpass mercedes in 2016

about mclaren my understanding is that , honda delivered strong ICE and there will be 3 new modifications to the ice come winter testing - a little bigger compressor - a much collaborate with mobil1 chemically - a better software and mapping orders and better gearbox -

even in abu dhabi race they were saving fuel to complete the race

so this modifications + a working ERS plus good chassis should see mchonda some serious improvement basically in the second half of 2016 season i'll leave it at this point however i think 2016 will be non-dull  good year in the sport   

[LeClerc]

I have two balls, neither of them is made of crystal. We'll know when we know.

[flymo]

Red Bull gap - 0.5000000 seconds. An odd option, but has attracted several votes, including mine just for the sheer improbability.  If it ever happens, this poll must be considered prescient.  Nice poll though, in general.

[mclarensmps]

I'm still seeing Merc ahead of the others but Ferrari will be closer than they were this year.

 

I see McHonda starting off 1.5s back, but will be within a second by the end of the season.

 

I see Red bull being a second back but being within half a second by mid season.

 

My crystal ball shattered.

[Alexandros]

It will all depend on how "radical" departures we have from certain teams.

 

The tires will tend to work with a car that is balanced a certain way. This balance could be affected by axis distance, front/rear weight bias, suspension settings, etc. Finding that balance is a gamble. It's not enough to make a car that has a lower CoG, better aero, better engine, if the chassis balance makes you lose 1s per lap due to under-utilizing the tires. That's why Mercedes are so cautious - it's all in their hands to lose. On the other hand, if Ferrari knows where to find time in terms of chassis balance, and makes a better chassis towards that direction, it could even go better than Mercedes - so Mercedes has to factor the risks. If, on the other hand, Ferrari loses their own gamble, it could be ugly and they could be running for 3rd/4rh.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if some other team stumbled upon a good chassis balance by accident, kind'a like this year's toro rosso. If they have good engine/aero, we could see a dark horse, or a genuine contender. Red Bull probably knows what works in terms of balance, from their own chassis and the toro rosso chassis, and they have, in a way, a hint, on how to develop.

[Kristian]

Mercedes are going to go radical, as they have reached the development potential of their current car, so there is a chance they might cock it up a la McLaren 2012/13, but I doubt it somehow. 

 

I think Ferrari will be a lot closer. They are throwing everything at this car, and Vettel in particular will be on fire. I think they'll be within 0.5s, but not enough to make it interesting over a year. 

 

Red Bull will be about where they were this year - the odd podium threat, but no wins. 

 

McLaren - there is no way they will make up so much time, but they will improve and be disturbing the top 8 on a regular basis. Still solidly midfield though. 

[noikeee]

I don't see it as impossible Ferrari might catch up most of the ground and start sharing more race wins. But it's still Mercedes' championship to lose.

 

At the moment I would expect a pecking order along these lines (for the first race):

 

1. Mercedes

2. Ferrari

...

...

...

3. Williams

...

4. Aston Martin

5. Red Bull

...

6. McLaren

7. Toro Rosso

...

8. Renault

...

9. Sauber

10. Manor

11. Haas

Edited by noikeee, 04 December 2015 - 18:01.

[Jonnycraig37]

Mercedes.
.
.
.
Ferrari
Williams
Force India
Haas
Manor
McLaren
Sauber
Red Bull
Toro Rosso
Renault

[ViMaMo]

Mercedes act like the pressure is on them, but I think Horner has it about right. It's Ferrari who have the hardest job of finding a big enough improvement in *all* areas to match, let alone beat Mercedes(who will also improve themselves) in a year that doesn't have any major regulation changes. Merc will still be heavy, heavy favorites for 2016. Ferrari need to pull out something special to make it a good fight.

Bet its finger boy doing the magic. Not being in right time and right place. Wonder how many think about their employer like the way they expect Alonso to.

Edited by ViMaMo, 04 December 2015 - 19:51.

[tylerlm97]

I just think Ferrari wants this with Vettel and with unlimited wind tunnel use they should have no excuse to be top dog to beat. Mercedes tends to mess up a lot too when the gap is close at tracks.The momentum is in Ferrari hands lets see if the can make use of it

[Jimisgod]

Following my total failure at judging last year...

 

Mercedes

Ferrari

Williams

Force India

Red Bull

McLaren

Haas

Toro Rosso

Lotus

Sauber

Manor

Edited by Jimisgod, 04 December 2015 - 23:28.

[superden]

Barring some sort of apocalyptic event, Mercedes will still be a the front runners in 2016.

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

Where is Williams!? Surely Williams will win WCC   

Williams was on my mind to be honest but their budget and abilities are far from world title unfortunately. So I didn't count them.

Edited by RYARLE, 05 December 2015 - 10:24.

[CPR]

F1 feature on paddock predictions and how well they scored:

http://www.formula1....correctly-.html

 

Prediction the future isn't easy

[Nathan]

Who will be the best Ferrari customer team in 2016??

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

Who will be the best Ferrari customer team in 2016??

IMO HAAS is the preferred customer by Ferrari. HAAS is more than just a powerunit customer and in terms of chassis, HAAS receive some chassis parts and technical consultation from Ferrari as well, plus HAAS are using Ferrari facilities too.

 

Recent Sauber-Honda talks are suggesting that maybe Sauber are really considering another powerunit.

 

Toro Rosso receiving 2015 powerunit, also shows that Ferrari are conservative about them. Toro Rosso made a great chassis for 2015 and IMO it could be a reason why Ferrari have given them one year old powerunit.

Edited by RYARLE, 05 December 2015 - 19:26.

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

I have two balls, neither of them is made of crystal. We'll know when we know.

Those are even more precise than the crystal one 

[f1RacingForever]

Not sure how close Ferrari will be to Merc but i think Mclaren will make a big leap. A working ERS and a larger turbo would do wonders for them.

[tifosi]

As a Ferrari fan it really hurts me to say it, but under the current regulations, they have no chance at all.

[RainyAfterlifeDaylight]

Till now from 200 votes:

 

Mercedes to be the front runner          (135 Votes)

Mercedes not to be the front runner   (28 votes for Ferrari to be the front runner)+(30 votes Too close)=58 votes

 

So domination chances of Mercedes are not that high this time, based on votes.

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Interestingly people are mostly cautions about McLarenHonda chances.

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Votes for RedBull show that people expect RedBull to be more or less at the same position as 2015 season but they could slip even further back.

Edited by RYARLE, 07 December 2015 - 15:31.

[travbrad]

Even if Ferrari can partially close the gap to Mercedes they could still have a shot at the WDC with all of their WDC efforts focused on Vettel, with the Mercedes drivers fighting amongst themselves, and the team not optimizing strategies in the spirit of "fairness".

 

Ferrari has no chance of a WCC though unless they magically build a 2004 level car or Raikkonen majorly steps up his game.

 

That's what my crystal ball says anyway.