63 replies to this topic

[Disgrace]

I read something I found astonishing on this forum. When you look at the list of champions from F2, F3000 and GP2, only Hamilton went on to win the F1 championship. Why haven't more succeeded?

[Viryfan]

That's actually quite astonishing. When you look at the list of champions from F2, F3000 and GP2, only Hamilton went on to win the F1 championship.

 

It shows to me that the racing in those kind of series is looking close to F1 but no that close.

 

I think it shows up notably in terms of physical demands, focus on one area....

 

All those little things.

 

Let's take the example of Damon Hill, he was lacking cutting edgde in F3000 but showed very good speed in 1990. While Erik Comas was consistant in terms of raw results , he proved ultra average in terms of raw speed.

 

Japanese F3000 seemed to be at the time more revelant because they had crazy tyre grip (much more than the goodyear in F1 back then).

 

F3 and Formula 4/ 2.0L/BMW/Ford seem to be a better indicator on who is going to fare in F1 to the point of becoming WDC.

Edited by Viryfan, 20 January 2016 - 09:57.

[Teleriel]

I'd imagine some of it is down to which car the champions ended up in, as well, right?

 

If you consider from F3000/GP2 to F1 champions you've got.. (At least from what I understand):

 

Christian Danner - Ended up with Zakspeed/Arrows/Osella - Not particularly prestigious teams

Ivan Capelli - Spent most of his career in F1 with Leyton House and had a disappointing Ferrari year to cap it off (Before my time, but I assume judging by his results that they broke down a lot/weren't competitive, as 1992 was Williams dominance?)

Stefano Modena - Who ended up in a series of badly performing teams for all his few years in the sport

Roberto Moreno - Scored (a) point in F1 before going and winning the F3000 championship, but only ever had Benetton as a particularly solid team that he drove for, really

Jean Alesi - Did pretty well for Ferrari over many many grand prix, but only won one. Still, during that time Ferrari won precisely zero world championships, which could indicate he never had the car under him?

Erik Comas - Dumped in a Ligier than a Larousse.. I wouldn't've expected too much in either of those teams in the early 90s

Christian Fittipaldi - Had a go in a Minardi and a Footwork before leaving for the USA.

 

I mean there's a recurring theme here which is that in the 80s/90s none of the people who -won- F3000's top series actually got a seat in a good team in it's prime, and I suspect this continues well into GP2 (with maybe a couple of exceptions). A few drivers have moved up from the teams they joined in F1, or gone and been successful elsewhere. (Montoya, Bourdais, Wilson in Champ/Indycar, etc.) But continuing on from here you've got:

 

Luca Badoer  - Scored a grand total of zero points with Minardi (And an unfair half season with Ferrari)

Olivier Panis - Won a race for Ligier in 1996, was there or thereabouts in generally not that great cars, from what I remember.

Jean-Christophe Boullion - Did one year for Sauber?..

Vincenzo Sospiri - One failed qualification attempt and a second place in an Indy race.

Joerg Mueller - Lots of Le Mans Series / ETCC / WTCC but never entered F1

Ricardo Zonta - Raced in a factory Merc sports car then for BAR in F1 but didn't achieve much with that.

JP Montoya - Won CART straight after, then took a little while to get to F1 and did reasonably well, but maaaaaaaaybe should've done better, I suppose it depends how good people think the cars he was in were. The most successful F3000 champ in terms of wins, though. 

Nick Heidfeld -  Joined Prost. It never got better, except a nearly-not-quite-win in 2008, but Kubica generally had the better of him there..

Bruno Junqueira - Never more than a test driver for Williams in F1.

Justin Wilson - Scored a point for Jaguar in 2003 but wasn't invited back. Too tall?

Sebastien Bourdais - Underperformed in a Toro Rosso given his record in the USA, but perhaps wasn't given a fair chance in 2009 as he held up against Vettel reasonably well the previous year.

Bjoern Wirdheim - Only ever a test driver...

Vitantonio Liuzzi - Partial season with Red Bull, then some time with Toro Rosso and lots of it with Force India.. None of which are really winning teams (or, were at the time, at least.)

 

Then you've got GP2..

 

Nico Rosberg - Ended up in a championship winning team with a champion teammate and so far hasn't been able to compete (bring on 2016?)

Lewis Hamilton - Champion in F1 x3

Timo Glock - Never won a race. Came close in a good Toyota a few times in 2009 from what I remember. Also contested F1 before going back to GP2, if I recall correctly?

Giorgio Pantano - Never scored a point in F1, where he raced 4 years before his GP2 title...

Nico Hulkenberg - Regular points, for not so impressive teams, but hasn't necessarily crushed his teammates like everyone thought he would (unfair expectation?)

Pastor Maldonado - Won a race! That makes him one of three GP2 champions to do that. Has underperformed relative to the entire field in almost every other race he's contested...

Romain Grosjean - Won GP2 after being relegated from F1 by Renault. Has been better since he came back to F1, but often not in the right car to win, though he missed a few chances partnering Raikkonen, perhaps?

Davide Valsecchi - So far, no chance. Seems unlikely we'll see him anytime soon.

Fabio Leimer - Gone off to run with the other Swiss in Rebellion in LMP1.. Seems to be doing okay for himself.

Jolyon Palmer - We'll find out soon. Optimism is not present with me personally, but it'll be interesting to see how he compares to someone like Maldonado

Stoffel Vandoorne - Farmed out to Japan to race there, so no data yet.

 

 

As an aside this is all opinion/speculation and I've no idea if this is the right place to post it, but it seemed relevant to the topic and I hope it's as interesting to others as it is to me!

[Viryfan]

Yes it is also about the opportunities given.

 

But the question that lies behind that, why these drivers mostly fails to generates interests from good teams or fails to move up the ranks.

[sopa]

Then... what is the background of F1 champions?

 

I believe quite a lot of champions have come directly from Formula 3. And certainly most of them have been in F3 at some point. The thing is that very talented drivers have often skipped the F3000/whatever class, because F1 teams are always looking for great talents and they get snapped up quicker. The recent Max Verstappen example is a very good case here!

[chunder27]

Because for whatever reason, feeder series no longer matter.

 

They are as they always have been predominantly full of drivers with a ton of money and a smattering of talent and one or two with tons of talent and no money, but this latter area is lacking ever more.

 

For me feeder series do not matter anymore, real talent is picked out very early by McLaren, Red Bull etc and fed into series by their junior teams, they get all the best drives, the rest is pay drivers. it is the same in bikes. 

[Disgrace]

Has that been the case since '67?

[sopa]

Last series before joining F1...

 

Vettel - FR3.5

Hamilton - GP2

Button - F3 (Williams famously took a gamble on him after the Zanardi experience)

Raikkonen - Formula Renault 2000 (a huge jump straight into F1)

Alonso - F3000 (had a single season as a rookie there before getting an F1 chance)

Schumacher - funnily enough, DTM... and sportscars... before that, F3.

Hakkinen - F3

Villeneuve - IndyCar

Senna - F3

etc

[Victor_RO]

Hamilton and Rosberg between themselves have 58 (44 + 14) wins in F1, all the other F2 + F3000 + GP2 champions taken together have 51 in total with the most successful being Ronnie Peterson with 10. 

[sopa]

So usually it is a good indication if you are considered so talented you can skip GP2/whatever, and get an F1 chance - this without being a paydriver!

 

By the way, Valtteri Bottas should be happy then. Straight from GP3 into Williams (first as a test driver, then race driver). Though many don't expect him to become a champion!

[tormave]

In the old days, the really talented got pulled from F3. Senna, Hakkinen won the British F3 championships, while Schumi won the German series and Macau. Verstappen is old school in this respect. Raikkonen got into F1 direct from Formula Renault. The logic is that you go to the nearest feeder series to F1 only if you were not dominant enough for top-team seat in the lower rungs of competition. F3000 and GP2 are battlegrounds for the well funded - you really need to win as a rookie to be considered for a top team seat.

Edit: too slow...

Edited by tormave, 20 January 2016 - 11:53.

[GSiebert]

There's also very simple maths involved.

There's a new GP2/F3000/F2 champion every year (so the number keeps growing), but every year there's only one F1 team (2 max) that can provide the car to win the championship, and the drivers in the F1 teams don't change very often.

[Marklar]

We just have 32 world champions. Everyone is naturally driving in the entry feeders like FR 2.0 and then F3 (with exceptions). In the past if you were goid enough then it was possible to skip the last step. And if not then not. Rosberg for instance was mediocore in F3. Thats why he drove in GP2.

Hamilton is probably the exception because he just drove in GP2 because he wanted the McLaren cockpit. He had the opportunity to already drive in 2006 for a smaller team after his F3 campaign.

[Paul Parker]

Everything depends upon what team and car you drive for with concomitant backing, in the case of Lewis Hamilton he rarely had to suffer a dud or uncompetitive car which makes a huge difference and impact upon both team and driver.

 

It is relatively easy to predict who will or will not make it to the top 3 or 4 in any given year long since, for instance Schumacher drove once and very competitively for EJ and thereafter to Benetton and later a WC in 1994 and then to a resurgent Ferrari in 1996 which got better and better for a variety of reasons.

 

This is not to diminish the talents of the above but they are the best examples of what a determined racer (presuming a certain level of ability) can do in the right car whilst others who could/should have achieved far more were/are stuck with mid-grid or tail end teams and go no further.

 

I can think of several over the years up to date, no names, but they never stood a snowball's chance in hell of advancing much beyond go in F1 despite their obvious skills in other categories.

[V8 Fireworks]

Because the most promising drivers are promoted before they win the feeder series.

[richardnunney]

It might be interesting to revist this list in a couple of years.  Wasn't a rule brought in that imposed a minimum age of drivers following Max Verstappen entering F1?

[PlatenGlass]

Then... what is the background of F1 champions?
 
I believe quite a lot of champions have come directly from Formula 3. And certainly most of them have been in F3 at some point. The thing is that very talented drivers have often skipped the F3000/whatever class, because F1 teams are always looking for great talents and they get snapped up quicker. The recent Max Verstappen example is a very good case here!

I'm not sure I necessarily agree with this. Most "next Sennas" turn out not to be and it's very hard to predict who will be a great driver. Lower formulas have good teams and bad teams just like F1, and there isn't as much scrutiny on them from F1 teams to see who really is the best. And a lot of it is about sponsorship money - why has Robin Frijns been overlooked, for example? What do the F1 teams know that no-one else does about him?

And if we look at the recent champions, it's not as if they've all skipped over F3000/GP2 anyway. Starting with new champions from the 90s onwards:

Schumacher - went into sportscars. So while he didn't do F3000, he didn't jump over it. He just went an alternative route.
Hill: Did F3000
Villeneuve: Indycars, so an alternative route rather than jumping over it.
Alonso: Did F3000
Hamilton: Did GP2

Hakkinen: Came from F3 so jumped over
Raikkonen: Jumped over
Button: Jumped over
Vettel: Jumped over

And generally motor racing isn't very meritocratic, so it's just as realistic to say that those who skip F3000/GP2 do so because they're favoured by a team (for whatever reason), and that favour is also a predictor of future success in itself.

[SimeonSasparella]

Because money

[sopa]

Well, that's true there are better and worse teams in lower formula just like in F1.

 

And that motorsports isn't very meritocratic and a lot is dependent on sponsorship money.

 

But historically F3 has also been more affordable than, say, GP2/F3000. Which means you still need lots of money to race in F3, but not quite as much as in GP2. So on average there is greater amount of talent to choose from on F3 level to put it this way. I think F1 teams and their driver programmes have recognized this, and that's why they start searching from that level and in recent decade even below that.

 

Also looking at other very talented drivers, who many consider to have (had) "championship-ability" - Kubica and Ricciardo also didn't race in GP2, but went to FR3.5 instead. Of course this is where sponsorship influence comes in - Red Bull used to put their drivers into FR3.5. It made more sense to them financially. For Kubica I guess FR3.5 was simply more affordable/made more sense at the time.

[JHSingo]

Because not many rookies/junior champions sign immediately with a top team that is capable of winning the title? This is not meant as a dig, but Hamilton is probably the only relatively recent example of someone who had a car that could win from his very first season.

 

Plus, the big teams that are real championship contenders tend to play it pretty conservative and tend to have the same driver line up for several seasons. Very few (with the possible exception of Red Bull) give young talent an opportunity.

[wj_gibson]

Historically, you often find that the drivers who go on to achieve great things in F1 are promoted into the series before they've even had a chance to reach F2/F3000/GP2 - cf. Prost; Senna; Schumacher; Hakkinen. I do think there is a bit of a tendency nowadays to view the GP2  champion as someone who has often won it by dint of hanging around the junior formulae too long.

[ensign14]

You've also got F1 being an end in itself. There's nowhere to go upwards.  In lower formulae you can have what I call the Sospiri Factor.  You stay in for years and years until everyone who was better than you has moved on, then you squish the rookies with your experience.  C.f. Palmer last year. 

 

You can't do that in F1 because the better guys do not move out.  And when they finally retire, one of the new bugs has enough experience to squish you in turn.  C.f. Massa.

[Spillage]

Perhaps one reason is that the best drivers are usually in F1 before they get chance to win the feeder series.

[Marklar]

Because not many rookies/junior champions sign immediately with a top team that is capable of winning the title? This is not meant as a dig, but Hamilton is probably the only relatively recent example of someone who had a car that could win from his very first season.
 
Plus, the big teams that are real championship contenders tend to play it pretty conservative and tend to have the same driver line up for several seasons. Very few (with the possible exception of Red Bull) give young talent an opportunity.

Doesnt explain why GP2/F2/F3000 champions doesnt seem to be able to win the WDC later, while F3 champions seem to have much better chances statistically.

[Prost1997T]

Doesnt explain why GP2/F2/F3000 champions doesnt seem to be able to win the WDC later, while F3 champions seem to have much better chances statistically.

 

F3 champions still participated in F3000 in many cases, they simply moved on before winning the F3000 title. WSC\WEC were also a popular choice while heading to F1.

[Nemo1965]

I read something I found astonishing on this forum. When you look at the list of champions from F2, F3000 and GP2, only Hamilton went on to win the F1 championship. Why haven't more succeeded?

 

Very interesting. Recently I wrote an article about the fact that so few nr. 1's at the juniors in tennis become successful in the seniors. Mind you: with successful I mean not being Grand Slam champions, I mean: getting to the top 50 of the world. Stefan Edberg was number 1 in the juniors, Roger Federer was, Gabriele Sabatini at the women's side... That is about it, regarding transfering success from the juniors to the seniors. Where is Donald Young now (no 1 in 2005), and where are Thiemo de Bakker (ditto 2006) Riccardis Berankis (2007), Tsung-Hua Yang (2008), Daniel Berta (2009), Juan Sebastian Gomez?

 

All these players have not only never been a real threat at Grand Slams... all of them are struggling to earn enough money to pay a full time coach, more and less. So the analogy with your discovery is pretty apt...

 

EDIT: Gael Montfils was no. 1 at the juniors in 2004... he is one of the most successful 'transfers' in that regard...

Edited by Nemo1965, 20 January 2016 - 19:15.

[Mohican]

The wins/races ratio talked about here tends to disregard the fact that racing cars of all categories but particularly in F1 are SO much more mechanically reliable today than was the case only 10 years ago. Today we essentially expect all starters to finish, unless they fall victims to accidents of some kind.

 

Comparing Ronnie, for example, to Hamilton does not work; just look at how many times the cars broke down in the 70's. And anyway, he only really had a few seasons when his cars were good enough to win ('71, '73, '74 & '78). That he won the '76 Italian GP in a March 761 was quite something.

 

As for the money required to move up, it was always like that. Does anybody seriously think that James Hunt would have made it to F1 without Lord Hesketh ? That the Lauda of 1972 would have made it without raising finance ?

Nothing new under the sun. Being in the right place at the right time in order to maximise your opportunity was always the name of the game.

 

Looking at the list, I think that the two drivers who really should have achieved much more are Alesi and Montoya. Both of whom were perceived in period as sure future champions.

[BRG]

Jolyon Palmer - We'll find out soon. Optimism is not present with me personally, but it'll be interesting to see how he compares to someone like Maldonado

Stoffel Vandoorne - Farmed out to Japan to race there, so no data yet.

Not much hope for either statistically it seems, although strangely few are giving Palmer any hope at all, whilst many seem to think van Doorne is the new messiah.

 

The Monaco F3 race used to be held up as the blue riband event of the feeder series, yet, whilst many good drivers won it, only Stewart, Prost and Hamilton went on to win F1 WDCs.  Maybe mediocrity on the way up is the route to success?  

[chunder27]

Macau was probably seen as a bigger indicator in my view and a lot of guys who won that ended up in F1. But equally a few did not.

[Marklar]

No current F1 driver won in Macau (despite almost everyone taking part), just Schumacher and Senna went to win a world championship. Also astonishing.

[Teleriel]

As an aside to my earlier post I today had a thought about the situation in the other series. So, taking a look at F3 and Formula Renault 3.5 champions as well (Given that those are what most would associate with the top drivers, I suppose) leads us to more interesting statistics:

 

FR3.5/World Series by Nissan

 

1998 - Marc Gene - Pretty decent distinguished career in racing in general, though never performed hugely well in F1 by merit of being stuck in a Minardi after winning this title...

1999 - Fernando Alonso - Double world champion. I wonder if Briatore had something to do with that?

2000 - Antonio Garcia - Very successful Le Mans racer. Never contested F1.

2001 - Franck Montagny - Took until 2006 to break into F1 with Super Aguri and never scored a point...

2002 - Ricardo Zonta - Mentioned in the first post, curiously one of few drivers (or the only?) to win both the higher-tier feeder series..? 

2003 - Franck Montagny 

2004 - Heikki Kovalainen - Flitted between good and okay teams in F1 and was there or thereabouts, picking up points but though he did pick up a win (which may or may not have been courtesy of his teammate's puncture..?) disappeared to back marker teams after a bad 2009

 

2005 - Robert Kubica - Many people think could and or should have been a future champion were it not for his rallying injury. Picked up Sauber's only ever F1 win, albeit during a time of hefty BMW sponsorship. 

2006 - Alx Danielsson - Never reached F1. 

2007 - Alvaro Parente - Moved to GP2 with no success after this, then became a McLaren sports car factory driver.

2008 - Giedo van der Garde - Similarly moved to GP2 for several years before a brief cameo with a bad team in F1. Gone now.

2009 - Bertrand Baguette - Never reached F1.

2010 - Mikhail Aleshin - Never reached F1...

2011 - Robert Wickens - Never reached F1

2012 - Robin Frijns - Never reached F1..

2013 - Kevin Magnussen - A sole year with McLaren and a year on the sidelines before being unceremoniously dropped to presumably make way for Racing Jesus Stoffel Vandoorne in the reserve seat. Maybe deserved better, but given the fact four of the previous champions hadn't reached F1 at all I suppose he can't whine too much..

2014 - Carlos Sainz Jr. - Currently in F1. Doing pretty well.

2015 - Oliver Rowland - Looks set to contest GP2 in 2016?

 

Formula 3 brings up the interesting point that actually the champions across a few national series actually moved up rather quickly beyond that - So I'll take those into account as well, and here's that. Notably British F3 has a lot of famous names racing in it, but this is obviously going back a little further in the career of most of them. I suppose it's still an interesting thing to include, so I'll put it in for the sake of not having anything better to do with my time   I'm not sure about the complete accuracy of anything pre 1970s, there's very little I could find on most of the drivers from that time.

 

I'll also do a quick snap of Macau GP winners as it's been mentioned and it might be fun to see how that compares. 

 

British Formula 3 - 1951-2014

 

I think perhaps the early F3 isn't such a good indication of anything, given the nature of the sport in the 50s/60s anyone who could afford to race in F1 probably did, but it'll be included here anyway.

 

1951 - Eric Brandon - Raced in 5 F1 GPs, never scored a point. 

1952 - Don Parker - Can find very little info on, anyone who wants to provide can do so and I'll update this

1953 - Don Parker

1954 - Les Leston - Entered 3 F1 GPs, DNQ'd once, and retired in the others.

1955 - Jim Russell - Never contested F1, badly injured in 1959 and started a racing school.

1956 - Henry Taylor - Scored 3 points over 9 F1 entries.

1957 - Jim Russell

1958 - Jim Russell

1959 - Don Parker

1960 - Jack Pitcher - Won an awful lot of 500cc races, but can't find much else

1961 - Mike Ledbrook - Never contested F1 as far as I can see 

1962 - John Fenning - Can't find any records of him being in F1

1963 - Peter Arundell - Scored 2 podiums and 12 points in F1

1964 - Jackie Stewart - Three time F1 world champion. 

1965 - Tony Dean - Never contested F1, but did do a lot of sportscars

1966 - Harry Stiller - Never contested F1

1967 - Harry Stiller

1968 - Tim Schenken - 1 Podium and 7 points in F1 over several years.

1969 - Emerson Fittipaldi - Two-time F1 world champion

1970 - Dave Walker - Did a year with Lotus and didn't score in F1

1970 - Tony Trimmer - Failed to qualify several F1 events

1970 - Carlos Pace - Race winner with Brabham. Scored several podiums, as well. 

1971 - Roger Williamson - Contested 2 GP in 1973, was killed in the second. 

1971 - Dave Walker

1971 - Dave Walker

1972 - Roger Williamson

1972 - Rikky van Opel - Entered a handful of races but never scored a point

1972 - Roger Williamson

1973 - Ian Taylor - Ran out of budget and moved to sportscars

1973 - Tony Brise - Scored 1 point, and was killed along with Graham Hill in the plane crash.

1973 - Tony Brise

1974 - Brian Henton - Failed to qualify a lot in F1, and never managed to score even when he did manage

1974 - Brian Henton 

1975 - Gunnar Nilsson - Won a race and scored three podiums for Team Lotus. Passed away from cancer in 1978. 

1976 - Bruno Giacomelli - Scored 14 points and 1 podium over 82 races. 

1976 - Rupert Keegan - Never scored over 4 seasons in F1

1977 - Stephen South - Failed to qualify in a McLaren in the one race he entered

1977 - Derek Daly - Scored 15 points over 64 Grand Prix.

1978 - Derek Warwick - 71 Points and 4 podiums over 162 entries. 

1978 - Nelson Piquet - 3 time F1 world champion

1979 - Chico Serra - Scored 1 point for Fittipaldi

1980 - Stefan Johansson - 12 Podiums and 83 points over 103 entries

1981 - Johnathan Palmer - 14 points over 88 entries

1982 - Tommy Byrne - Entered 5 GP, failed to qualify 3 and retired from the other 2

1983 - Ayrton Senna - 3 time F1 world champion

1984 - Johnny Dumfries - Scored 3 points over 1 season for Lotus

1985 - Mauricio Gugelmin - 1 Podium and 10 points over 80 starts.

1986 - Andy Wallace - Never contested F1

1987 - Johnny Herbert - 3 Wins, 7 podiums and 98 points over 161 starts

1988 - J.J. Lehto - 1 podium and 10 points in F1

1989 - David Brabham - Never scored in 2 years in F1

1990 - Mika Hakkinen - Two-time F1 world champion with McLaren

1991 - Rubens Barrichello - 658 points, 68 podiums, 11 wins, but no championships over 326 entries. 

1992 - Gil de Ferran - Never contested F1

1993 - Kelvin Burt - Never contested F1

1994 - Jan Magnussen - Did a year and a half in F1 and scored 1 point (In his final race for Stewart)

1995 - Oliver Gavin - Never contested F1

1996 - Ralph Firman - Scored 1 point in F1 in 2003

1997 - Johnny Kane - Never contested F1

1998 - Mario Haberfeld - Never contested F1

1999 - Marc Hynes - Never contested F1, works as a driver coach for Manor/Marussia apparently(?)

2000 - Antonio Pizzonia - Scored 8 points over 3 part-campaigns in F1

2001 - Takuma Sato - 44 points and 1 podium in F1

2002 - Robbie Kerr - Never contested F1

2003 - Alan van der Merwe - Never contested F1

2004 - Nelson Angelo Piquet - 1 podium and 19 points over 28 races (Formula E champion 2014/5 too...)

2005 - Alvaro Parente - Covered in FR3.5

2006 - Mike Conway - Never contested F1

2007 - Marko Asmer - Never contested F1

2008 - Jaime Alguersuari - 31 points over 2 and a half seasons in F1 with Toro Rosso

2009 - Daniel Ricciardo - 360 points, 3 wins and 10 podiums over 88 starts in F1

2010 - Jean-Eric Vergne - 51 points from 58 starts in F1

2011 - Felipe Nasr - 27 points from 18 starts in F1

2012 - Jack Harvey - Not contested F1 yet

2013 - Jordan King - Currently racing GP2

2014 - Martin Cao - Seems to be part-time racing in Euroseries - Note that the 2014 championship had some 3 full season entries, so being a champion of it might be.. well. A dubious honour. 

 

 

..That was a long list. To avoid making a post that's too long I'll add the others in another one later on, but it's interesting to see how few of the drivers in either of these championships end up both winning the title and being successful in F1

[noriaki]

Not much hope for either statistically it seems, although strangely few are giving Palmer any hope at all, whilst many seem to think van Doorne is the new messiah.

 

This is roughly the 20th time I see you downplaying Vandoorne in favour of Palmer, so I'll bite. 

 

Yea, Jolyon deserves a chance in F1 and relative success in lower categories doesn't even nearly always translate into similar relative Formula One performance. But there's a significant difference between Palmer and Vandoorne: Palmer spent 3 seasons in GP2 getting outperformed by the great Josef Král, Marcus Ericsson and Felipe Nasr (ok, the results dont tell the whole story, as he still was able to show speed but struggled with the tyres a lot), before a 4th season move to the top team of the series and the title. In total, won 8% of his races, and 9% of his feature race starts. Thats respectable but nothing to hype him about, not any more than an arriving Maldonado, Valsecchi, Leimer, Pérez who walked a similar path before him.

 

(Funnily enough, Jolyon also gets a total free pass from you for not racing last season, unlike Kevin Magnussen whom you keep on lambasting for not racing...despite the fact he was about to do a season of Indycar racing until Alonso's Barcelona moment ruined it..)

 

Vandoorne, otoh, was instantly competitive after entering the "2nd tier", FR3.5 - in the same vein as Hamilton, Hülkenberg Vettel and Ricciardo - and won 25% of all races he took part in GP2 and FR3.5 - of the GP2 feature races he won a crazy 45%. Ok, he also had good teams on every season - but he also was almost instantly competitive in GP2 after moving there. Remember how GP2 is notorious for being hard to master for any newbie, due to the lack of on track time. So, that's reason why he gets hyped up more than the average GP2 champion. 

 

But obviously, being a knowledgeable motorsport follower and a sensible contributer otherwise, you knew all of this; it's just the evergreen "nobody likes him because he's British" record, a favorite for every occasion from certain members. Just imo though, the "complaining about the career trajectory of Oli Rowland" track would be way groovier than the Palmer one...

 

(sorry for slight OT)

Edited by noriaki, 21 January 2016 - 15:35.

[noikeee]

And it's worth mentioning Stoffel was a FR2.0 Eurocup champion, too - so he's pretty much aced all 3 levels he contested, all of them extremely competitive as some of the most prestigious series in the ladder in recent years. Not like, say, and here's some completely random examples   , Formula Palmer Audi, or the short-lived former FIA Formula 2.

 

Again (yet again?) Jolyon's worth a shot but there's obvious reasons why Stoffel's rated as a bigger prospect.

Edited by noikeee, 21 January 2016 - 17:47.

[Nemo1965]

And it's worth mentioning Stoffel was a FR2.0 Eurocup champion, too - so he's pretty much aced all 3 levels he contested, all of them extremely competitive as some of the most prestigious series in the ladder in recent years. Not like, say, and here's some completely random examples   , Formula Palmer Audi, or the short-lived former FIA Formula 2.

 

Again (yet again?) Jolyon's worth a shot but there's obvious reasons why Stoffel's rated as a bigger prospect.

 

What I find intriguing is the thought: could racing in the feeder-series 'ruin' your driving style for F1? Meaning: being taught or having learned too many do's and do n'ts?  I say it because in tennis, junior players that want to become number 1 or 2 in the rankings usually have to be very complete, all-round players... and hence seldom develop a weapon. When they come into the ATP or WTA-tour their stats are very robust... except for holding serve... and hence they suffer.

 

Taking it to F1, If I look at Max Verstappen he seems uninhibited by 'how you should drive'. Sometimes when I watched Heikki K. it seemed he had tested too long and drove too long in feeder series. There was zilch flow in his driving.

[noikeee]

I don't agree. Hamilton went through all the feeder series and lost zero of that "flow" or aggression or whatever it is you want to call it.

[ardbeg]

I read something I found astonishing on this forum. When you look at the list of champions from F2, F3000 and GP2, only Hamilton went on to win the F1 championship. Why haven't more succeeded?

There's not many F1 champions.... In the feeder series you don't stay after you won, in F1 you don't leave...

[Marklar]

except for holding serve... and hence they suffer.

Yeah, reminds me of when I played tennis. Someone had to explain me that serving is supposed to be an advantage

What I find intriguing is the thought: could racing in the feeder-series 'ruin' your driving style for F1? Meaning: being taught or having learned too many do's and do n'ts?  I say it because in tennis, junior players that want to become number 1 or 2 in the rankings usually have to be very complete, all-round players... and hence seldom develop a weapon. When they come into the ATP or WTA-tour their stats are very robust... except for holding serve... and hence they suffer.
 
Taking it to F1, If I look at Max Verstappen he seems uninhibited by 'how you should drive'. Sometimes when I watched Heikki K. it seemed he had tested too long and drove too long in feeder series. There was zilch flow in his driving.

I heared recently that karts are closer to F1 cars regarding the driving style than other formula cars. Maybe that's the reason?

[ardbeg]

I heared recently that karts are closer to F1 cars regarding the driving style than other formula cars. Maybe that's the reason?

You probably heard that from a kart driver

[BRG]

This is roughly the 20th time I see you downplaying Vandoorne in favour of Palmer, so I'll bite.

 

I have no beef at all with van Doorne himself.  He is obviously a bright prospect although this thread seems to suggest that he is doomed to fail!

 

It is the chorus of hype that follows any mention of his name - and this thread proves the point: just see Noikee's post immediately after yours.  I hate and despise all that fanboyism that followed Kimi, Kubica, Kovalainen, Verstappen and many others not forgetting Hamilton.  

 

As for the hard done by British drivers, well that is a given on this forum.  

[Nemo1965]

I don't agree. Hamilton went through all the feeder series and lost zero of that "flow" or aggression or whatever it is you want to call it.

 

Hamilton is a special case. And there are more special cases. Isn't it strange that Nico Rosberg, for example, who was reasonable in F3, won with Arden in GP2 (okay), but is now considered only second class to Vettel, Hamilton and Alonso?

[Marklar]

He was pretty average in F3 and won the GP2 title (with ART) in the series' first season. I'm actually even surprised that he became such a good driver, others were more promising, but didnt made it.

[ardbeg]

So, let's compare to a motorsport that has a proper ladder Moto3 => Moto2 => MotoGP

 

Last 10 years winners:

       Moto3/125        Moto2/250        MotoGP/500
2005: Thomas Luthi     Dani Pedrosa      Valentino Rossi
2006: Alvaro Bautista  Jorge Lorenzo     Nicky Hayden
2007: Gabor Talmacsi   Jorge Lorenzo     Casey Stoner
2008: Mike Di Meglio   Marco Simoncelli  Valentino Rossi
2009: Julian Simon     Hiroshi Aoyama    Valentino Rossi
2010: Marc Marquez     Toni Elias        Jorge Lorenzo
2011: Nicolas Terol    Stefan Bradl      Casey Stoner
2012: Sandro Cortese   Marc Marquez      Jorge Lorenzo
2013: Luis Salom       Pol Espargaro     Jorge Lorenzo
2014: Alex Marquez     Esteve Rabat      Marc Marquez
2015: Danny Kent       Johann Zarco      Valentino Rossi*

So we have 5 different champions in MotoGP, 10 different in Moto3 and 9 different in Moto2. 

By a curious coincidence, we have 5 different F1 champions as well, during the same period. All of them coming from a feeder series of sorts.

[Marklar]

So, let's compare to a motorsport that has a proper ladder Moto3 => Moto2 => MotoGP

Last 10 years winners:

2015: Valentino Rossi*

Edited by Marklar, 21 January 2016 - 23:22.

[lamo]

Since GP2 started we have had 10 new winners in F1.

 

Button, Massa, Hamilton, Kubica, Vettel, Kovalainen, Webber, Rosberg, Maldanado, Ricciardo.

 

Button, Webber and Massa were in F1 beforehand, so of the 7 new winners since GP2 launched, 4 have been GP2 champions and 2 came through the Red Bull driver program that put drivers into FR 3.5.

The exception is Kubica.

[noikeee]

I have no beef at all with van Doorne himself.  He is obviously a bright prospect although this thread seems to suggest that he is doomed to fail!

 

It is the chorus of hype that follows any mention of his name - and this thread proves the point: just see Noikee's post immediately after yours.  I hate and despise all that fanboyism that followed Kimi, Kubica, Kovalainen, Verstappen and many others not forgetting Hamilton.  

 

As for the hard done by British drivers, well that is a given on this forum.  

 

What's fanboyistic about it? I'd like to see him do well, but I'm not saying he'll become a F1 champ or that he shoots laser beams out of his bum (like some people in the Kubica, Kimi, Verstappen camps seem to claim yes), just stating the obvious that he's got a stellar feeder series record and that this usually indicates potential. I could say the same about Ocon.. or Frijns.. or Hamilton or Hulkenberg in the past, and I'll be the first to admit Hulkenberg hasn't become as good as expected.

 

Since GP2 started we have had 10 new winners in F1.

 

Button, Massa, Hamilton, Kubica, Vettel, Kovalainen, Webber, Rosberg, Maldanado, Ricciardo.

 

Button, Webber and Massa were in F1 beforehand, so of the 7 new winners since GP2 launched, 4 have been GP2 champions and 2 came through the Red Bull driver program that put drivers into FR 3.5.

The exception is Kubica.

 

And Kubica was a FR3.5 champ too. So basically every single new F1 race winner in recent years has been a GP2 or FR3.5 title contender or champion.

 

It's easy to lump in the old days of F3000 and the 80s/70s F2 and whatever, but feeder series changed dramatically in recent years, it makes sense to me they've become better predictors of talent. For a start the mentality changed and it's now expected of any new driver they'll amount a lot of experience in feeder series, instead of being fast-tracked from F3/lower level which is now the exception (even if it still occasionally happens as per Max Verstappen). Then the whole ladder is just far more concentrated than before, everything goes by 1 or 2 international series at each level. Everyone does FR2.0 Eurocup then everyone does F3 Euro/GP3 then everyone does WSR/GP2. This means all the talents are paired with each other and very rarely can someone hide their lack of talent by beating a crap field. Also every car is spec now (bar F3 which is as good as spec). There's still differences between teams but you can't luck your way into a title in much better equipment now, as everyone's got the same car.

[chrisPB15]

You probably heard that from a kart driver

 

Or Ayrton Senna.

 

Karting is where the trade is learnt.

Some drivers who've gone to Single seaters from Karts have won races/got poles very early. I think Kubica was one iirc Pole position at first attempt?  Raikkonen didn't drive a lot of cars before F1 and would have been earlier if it wasn't for the license requirements. 

 Even that kid who's promoted as coming from video games, cut his teeth in Karts.  Then there's Ferrari  being questioned for giving Valentino Rossi's a test, then doing a reasonable time, an ex Kart champion! 

 

Then you've got the F1 drivers using Karts as part of their off season training.  'it keeps me sharp for F1" Michael Schumacher.  

Edited by chrisPB15, 22 January 2016 - 10:55.

[MattK9]

There is a saying i have heard of junior drivers that is relevant here.

 

You can make a fast driver more consistent, but you cant make a consistent driver fast.

i.e. F1 teams are looking for raw speed in young drivers and hope that they can teach consistency as they grow up. The more consistent young drivers who win the junior formulas don't always have the raw speed to make them great F1 drivers. 

Edited by MattK9, 22 January 2016 - 10:43.

[PlatenGlass]

What I find intriguing is the thought: could racing in the feeder-series 'ruin' your driving style for F1? Meaning: being taught or having learned too many do's and do n'ts?

Different cars require differ styles, so being the best F1 driver doesn't make you "the best driver", so it's certainly likely there's something in this. Look at how F1 drivers often struggle in DTM.

[SirVanhan]

Or Ayrton Senna.

 

Karting is where the trade is learnt.

Some drivers who've gone to Single seaters from Karts have won races/got poles very early. I think Kubica was one iirc Pole position at first attempt?  Raikkonen didn't drive a lot of cars before F1 and would have been earlier if it wasn't for the license requirements. 

 Even that kid who's promoted as coming from video games, cut his teeth in Karts.  Then there's Ferrari  being questioned for giving Valentino Rossi's a test, then doing a reasonable time, an ex Kart champion! 

 

Then you've got the F1 drivers using Karts as part of their off season training.  'it keeps me sharp for F1" Michael Schumacher.  

Karting and F1 similarities are in the sense of speed, how fast everything is happening at a time. That's why karting is so good for F1 drivers when testing is banned.

[sopa]

I have no beef at all with van Doorne himself.  He is obviously a bright prospect although this thread seems to suggest that he is doomed to fail!

 

It is the chorus of hype that follows any mention of his name - and this thread proves the point: just see Noikee's post immediately after yours.  I hate and despise all that fanboyism that followed Kimi, Kubica, Kovalainen, Verstappen and many others not forgetting Hamilton.  

 

As for the hard done by British drivers, well that is a given on this forum.  

 

Hard done? Palmer is NOT hyped, just like Davide Valsecchi and Fabio Leimer (two non-British drivers, by the way) were NOT hyped. Because for all them it took ages to win GP2 and none of them is/was a standout talent. I never saw any Valsecchi nor Leimer fanboys on these forums. They are all in the same boat, irrespective of nationalities. The world doesn't revolve around Britain.

 

Bright prospects do get hyped though, it is sort of natural... Regardless of where they come from.

Edited by sopa, 22 January 2016 - 11:54.