Rosberg's announcement must have been a shock to all players except scheivlak. Some of the players opted to experiment with the second seat at Mercedes, but nobody besides him expected Rosberg to leave F1, or even leave Mercedes for that matter. One wonders how creative the players would have got if Rosberg made his announcement during the podium interviews a little less than a week ago.
Overall, there has been less activity this year than the previous, but I think it will still be fun to look at some statistics:
Drivers
14: Bottas, Ericsson, Hamilton, Hülkenberg, Ocon, Pérez, Ricciardo, Stroll, Vandoorne, Verstappen, Vettel
13: Magnussen, Rosberg, Sainz
12: Alonso, Gasly
10: Grosjean
9: Norris, Wehrlein
8: Leclerc
6: Giovinazzi, Räikkönen
5: King, Palmer
4: Kvyat, Sirotkin
3: Gutiérrez, Nasr
2: Russell
1: Ghiotto, Markelov, Nato
Half of next year's drivers are universally expected to continue in 2018. A few others, like Alonso, Magnussen, and Rosberg, were widely expected not to retire next year (and it turned out to be true for Rosberg – he retired this year). Pierre Gasly is the most popular pick among the potential 2018 rookies, with 12 out of 14 players picking him. More than half of the players also expect Lando Norris and Charles Leclerc to be on the grid in 2018.
Of the confirmed 2017 drivers, Daniil Kvyat is the least popular pick, with only 4 drivers expecting him to remain in Formula One by then. Gutiérrez and Nasr, who are yet to be confirmed for 2017, were only picked by three players each. Of the drivers who participated in the 2016 season, Haryanto and Button are the only ones who weren't picked by anyone.
Three unique picks this year: Luca Ghiotto (by Makarias), Artem Markelov (by markelov74), and Norman Nato (by noikeee). All of them were placed in Manor. Should any of them appear on the 2018 grid, even in other teams, they will bring a lot of valuable points – they would bring 6 points for driving in a different team, which is more than a popular driver/team combo, like Norris at Toro Rosso, would bring.
More players picked unknown drivers this year than the previous: 12 unknown picks were made, an average of nearly 1 per player. Two players decided to leave an entire team (namely, Toro Rosso) without named drivers. With Red Bull seemingly happy with their current drivers and no stellar talents in their junior program, this might be a wise strategy.
Teams
Mercedes: Rosberg (13), Hamilton (9), Vettel (3), Ocon (2), Alonso (1)
Red Bull: Verstappen (13), Ricciardo (12), Sainz (2), Vettel (1)
Ferrari: Vettel (8), Räikkönen (6), Pérez (5), Hamilton (3), Ricciardo, Sainz (2), Bottas, Verstappen (1)
Force India: Ocon (11), Pérez (9), Grosjean, Palmer (2), Nasr, Sainz, Sirotkin, Wehrlein (1)
Williams: Stroll (13), Bottas (12), Grosjean, Sainz, Vettel (1)
McLaren: Vandoorne (14), Alonso (11), Hamilton (2), Sainz (1)
Toro Rosso: Gasly (12), Norris (8), unknown driver (4), Kvyat (3), Sainz (1)
Haas: Magnussen (13), Leclerc (6), Grosjean, unknown driver (3), Giovinazzi, Nasr, Wehrlein (1)
Renault: Hülkenberg (14), Sainz (5), Grosjean (4), Giovinazzi, Kvyat, Ocon, Sirotkin, Vettel (1)
Sauber: Ericsson (14), Wehrlein (5), Leclerc, unknown driver (2), Giovinazzi, Nasr, Norris, Palmer, Stroll (1)
Manor: King (5), Giovinazzi, Gutiérrez (3), Palmer, Russell, Sirotkin, unknown driver, Wehrlein (2), Ghiotto, Markelov, Nato (1)
Team 12 ("McHonda B"): Bottas (1), unknown driver (1)
Stoffel Vandoorne is universally expected to drive in McLaren, as are Nico Hülkenberg in Renault and Marcus Ericsson in Sauber. Magnussen, Rosberg, Stroll, and Verstappen were also widely expected to stay in their current teams. The most popular moves are Pierre Gasly to Toro Rosso, predicted by 12 participants, Lando Norris to Toro Rosso, predicted by 8, and Charles Leclerc to Haas, predicted by 6. Not much consensus regarding current F1 driver moves to other teams.
Two players expect Manor not to make the 2018 grid. One player expects a 12th team (christened "McHonda B") to appear. AJFIN will receive full points for the 12th team, should one appear, regardless of whether they have a connection with McLaren and Honda or not.
Average pick
Mercedes Nico Rosberg Lewis Hamilton
Red Bull Max Verstappen Daniel Ricciardo
Ferrari Sebastian Vettel Kimi Räikkönen
Force India Esteban Ocon Sergio Pérez
Williams Lance Stroll Valtteri Bottas
McLaren Fernando Alonso Stoffel Vandoorne
Toro Rosso Pierre Gasly Lando Norris
Haas Kevin Magnussen Charles Leclerc
Renault Nico Hülkenberg Carlos Sainz
Sauber Marcus Ericsson Pascal Wehrlein
Manor Jordan King Antonio Giovinazzi
I tried to figure out an average pick. It was a bit more straightforward this year, but there was no place for Grosjean, who was picked by 10 players, but placed in various teams.
I also calculated the results if the average pick comes true:
AVERAGE PICK 134.15
1. Marklar 121.23
2. SpaceHorseParty 117.77
3. Kev00 115.15
4. markelov74 113.15
5. DutchQuicksilver 105.62
6. Starchild 103.46
7. AJFIN 101.54
8. scheivlak 99.23
9. Makarias 92.62
10. HeidfeldsBeard 92.38
11. TurnOffTheLights 90.92
12. Costaz 90.31
13. noikeee 89.62
14. Anderis 73.92
It took me some time to make it work in Excel, I hope the scores are correct. The altered pointscoring rules seem to work well, no more ties here.
Of course, it might also be interesting to see the average pick now that we know Rosberg will not be on the grid in 2018. The huge popularity of the Rosberg/Mercedes pick makes this a slighly tricky task, the closest thing to an average pick that I managed to figure out involved moving Vettel to Mercedes (despite only 3 players doing that), Pérez to Ferrari (a slightly more popular move), and Grosjean to Force India, despite the fact only 2 players placed him there. This does solve the problem of not placing him in any team.
Mercedes Sebastian Vettel Lewis Hamilton
Red Bull Max Verstappen Daniel Ricciardo
Ferrari Sergio Pérez Kimi Räikkönen
Force India Esteban Ocon Romain Grosjean
Williams Lance Stroll Valtteri Bottas
McLaren Fernando Alonso Stoffel Vandoorne
Toro Rosso Pierre Gasly Lando Norris
Haas Kevin Magnussen Charles Leclerc
Renault Nico Hülkenberg Carlos Sainz
Sauber Marcus Ericsson Pascal Wehrlein
Manor Jordan King Antonio Giovinazzi
AVERAGE PICK 137.23
1. SpaceHorseParty 113.08
2. Marklar 110.69
3. markelov74 110.77
4. AJFIN 107.62
5. Kev00 102.31
6. scheivlak 102.46
7. DutchQuicksilver 103.23
8. Starchild 92.92
9. Makarias 90.69
10. HeidfeldsBeard 90.46
11. noikeee 88.85
12. TurnOffTheLights 84.92
13. Costaz 84.85
14. Anderis 63.38
Overall, the scores are lower. The biggest winner from such a rearrangement seems to be AJFIN, because he had Pérez at Ferrari and Grosjean at Force India. The average pick scores more points because less popular drivers are now included in it.
See you in 11 months for the 2019 Silly Season Trophy, in roughly 16 months for the results of this one, and in a little over 100 days for the results of the previous one. I think there might be a mid-season update somewhere during the summer break, so stay tuned!
Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 04 December 2016 - 10:09.
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