It took me some time to build the scoring spreadsheet, but hopefully what I have created now will be easier to reuse in the following years.
Last year after the deadline had passed, Rosberg came forth with his bombshell announcement that would have drastically altered all guesses had it come into light a few days earlier. The only December announcement so far this year was the confirmation of Leclerc and Ericsson at Sauber for 2018 – but the 2019 silly season fun is only beginning and surely there will be some unexpected movements.
So, let's look at some statistics:
Drivers
18: Bottas, Gasly, Hülkenberg, Ocon*, Pérez, Ricciardo, Sainz, Verstappen, Vettel
17: Alonso, Leclerc, Vandoorne
16: Hamilton, Stroll
14: Giovinazzi, Grosjean
13: Magnussen
11: Norris
8: Russell
7: Ericsson, Hartley, Kubica, Räikkönen
5: Fukuzumi
2: Eriksson, Matsushita, Rosenqvist, Wehrlein
1: Armstrong, de Vries, Kari, Kvyat, Pagenaud
Last year, there were 11 drivers who were universally expected to continue in 2018. With the increased number of participants, as well as the decreased amount of available seats (this time last year most participants expected Manor to make the grid in 2018), that number is now nine.
You might notice the asterisk next to Ocon's name. During the process of compiling entries I noticed Makarias put Ocon twice: in Mercedes and in Force India. This is not explicitly forbidden by rules, so Makarias will be able to score the full 5 points (plus bonus points) for placing him in either Mercedes or Force India, but he will only score once for Ocon (i.e. he will not get the extra 2 points for the wrong seat, nor will he get the 2 points twice if he drives for a different team). Next year, I will add a rule stating one driver can only be put in one seat. I apologize to Makarias for not noticing the mistake before the deadline and therefore failing to notify him.
Alonso, Leclerc, and Vandoorne were only left out by one player each. Hamilton and Stroll were left out by two players: it seems that with the recent precedent of a driver retiring at the top of his game, as well as some of Hamilton's recent comments, these players decided it was worth a punt. Antonio Giovinazzi is the most popular driver who will not be on the 2018 grid, with 14 of 18 players picking him. Lando Norris and George Russell are the most popular potential rookies, with 11 and 8 picks, respectively.
The least likely 2018 drivers to line up the 2019 grid (at least according to the players of this game) are Ericsson, Hartley, and Räikkönen, with 7 picks each. It is probably fitting that these three drivers are not expected to switch teams for 2019: all guesses place them either in their current teams, or out of Formula One. It is unclear what will happen with the Williams seat for the next year, but if the seat is given to Kubica, he will join these three drivers, as he also has been picked by 7 players (though not all place him at Williams). Some of the other rumored options (such as Paul di Resta and Sergey Sirotkin) have not been picked at all.
Pascal Wehrlein and Daniil Kvyat, both of whom are, it seems, without a drive next year, are tipped to return by some players. No such expectations for Jolyon Palmer.
Five unique picks this year: Marcus Armstrong (by Brawn BGP 001), Niko Kari (by M2000-5), Daniil Kvyat (by DutchQuicksilver), Simon Pagenaud (by scheivlak), and Nyck de Vries (by noikeee). Last year, all of the unique picks were placed in Manor. This year there has been more variety, with Armstrong being put at Sauber, Kari and de Vries at Toro Rosso, Kvyat at Williams and Pagenaud at Haas. Should any of them appear on the 2019 grid, even in other teams, they will bring a lot of valuable points – they would bring 6 points for driving in a different team, which is more than a popular driver/team combo, like Pérez at Force India, would bring.
A total of eight unknown picks were made. Three players decided to use such a pick on Sauber, two players did that with Williams, two more with Toro Rosso, and one player (Costaz) used it on Haas. Costaz was the most active user of this option, as he used four such picks, one for each of the teams mentioned.
Teams
Mercedes: Hamilton (16), Bottas, Ocon (8), Ricciardo (4)
Ferrari: Vettel (18), Räikkönen (7), Leclerc (6), Ricciardo (3), Pérez (2)
Red Bull: Verstappen (18), Ricciardo, Sainz (9)
Force India: Pérez (12), Ocon (10), Russell (7), Bottas (2), Wehrlein (2), Kubica, Norris, Vandoorne (1)
Williams: Stroll (16), Bottas (7), Kubica (4), Pérez, unknown driver (2), Grosjean, Kvyat, Norris, Ocon, Russell (1)
Renault: Hülkenberg (18), Sainz (9), Grosjean, Vandoorne (2), Alonso, Bottas, Kubica, Norris, Pérez (1)
Toro Rosso: Gasly (18), Hartley (7), Fukuzumi (5), Matsushita, unknown driver (2), Kari, de Vries (1)
Haas: Magnussen (13), Grosjean (9), Leclerc (6), Giovinazzi (3), Vandoorne (2), Pagenaud, Pérez, unknown driver (1)
McLaren: Alonso (16), Vandoorne (12), Norris (6), Ricciardo (2)
Sauber: Giovinazzi (11), Ericsson (7), Leclerc (5), unknown driver (3), Eriksson, Grosjean, Norris, Rosenqvist (2), Armstrong, Kubica (1)
There are four things the players universally agreed on: Pierre Gasly will stay at Toro Rosso, Nico Hülkenberg will stay at Renault, Max Verstappen will stay at Red Bull, and Sebastian Vettel will stay at Ferrari. All of the players who expect Lewis Hamilton to continue racing in 2019, expect him to stay at Mercedes – the same goes for Lance Stroll and Williams, and Kevin Magnussen and Haas.
Antonio Giovinazzi is the only driver who was the most popular pick for a team (Sauber), despite not driving for them in 2018. Therefore Giovinazzi to Sauber is the most popualr move this time. Sainz to Red Bull (predicted by 9), Ocon to Mercedes (predicted by 8), Russell to Force India (predicted by 7), and Bottas to Williams (predicted by 7) are the other ones in the top five.
All players predict the current ten teams to line up the 2019 grid, with no new teams appearing.
Average pick
Mercedes Lewis Hamilton Valtteri Bottas
Ferrari Sebastian Vettel Kimi Räikkönen
Red Bull Max Verstappen Daniel Ricciardo
Force India Sergio Pérez Esteban Ocon
Williams Lance Stroll Robert Kubica
Renault Nico Hülkenberg Carlos Sainz
Toro Rosso Pierre Gasly Brendon Hartley
Haas Kevin Magnussen Romain Grosjean
McLaren Fernando Alonso Stoffel Vandoorne
Sauber Antonio Giovinazzi Marcus Ericsson
Leclerc was picked by 17 players, but they split him pretty evenly between Ferrari, Haas, and Sauber, leaving him without a seat in the average pick. Despite only being placed there by 4 players, Kubica gets a place in the average pick due to Ocon at Force India being more popular than Bottas at Williams.
I calculated the results if the average pick comes true:
AVERAGE PICK 129.24
1. RaikkonenFan96 123.41
2. Kev00 117.12
3. markelov74 105.12
4. sladealonso 105.06
5. TurnOffTheLights 102.65
6. noikeee 102.53
7. M2000-5 98.41
8. KWSN - DSM 98.18
9. turk157 98.18
10. Marklar 96.47
11. SpaceHorseParty 92.35
12. DutchQuicksilver 91.88
13. Grayson 89.53
14. f1paul 83.12
15. Makarias 80.59
16. Brawn BGP 001 75.82
17. scheivlak 73.41
18. Costaz 73.29
Unlike last year's preliminary results, this year there was a tie that had to be broken. KWSN - DSM gets 8th place ahead of turk157 as he submitted his guess two days earlier. Both players made 14 picks that exactly match the average pick.
This year I'll try something new – to make the game more exciting, I will post the interim results after each move is confirmed. However, since writing this took quite a bit of time, I will do that and post the first interim results in the next few days (shouldn't be very exciting, as only Vettel and Verstappen are confirmed).
So, see you in 11 months for the 2020 Silly Season Trophy, in roughly 16 months for the final results of this one, and in a little over 100 days for the results of the previous one. And, of course, in a few days for the first interim results!
