26 replies to this topic

[Bjorn]

Had the basic idea for this watching the exciting qualifying for the USA GP, and refined it with the help of the people of #Atlasf1. Thanks guys

As the title suggests, this is an experimental round so if and when the game returns in 2004 it might be completely different. The whole game will be based on the provisional starting position each driver is given at the end of his second qualifying run.

The Guesses:
1. Who will have provisional pole for more runs than anyone else (henceforth known as the Poleman)? For how many runs?
2. Who will have the lowest provisional starting position at the end of his run (henceforth known as the Lowman)? What position will that be?

So, both guesses will have a driver name and a number. In case of a tie between two drivers, the driver who was first to go out 'wins'. DNQs will be disregarded. This will be about the drivers who FINISH their laps.

To further explain, look at How the Grid was Formed for the USA GP: http://www.atlasf1.c...p/id/4208/.html

The correct guesses in this case would have been
1. Raikkonen: 8 (8 drivers started while he was on provisional pole, none of them managed to knock him down. Panis was second, staying on provisional pole while 4 other drivers completed their runs.)
2. Webber: 12 (At the end of his run, Webber was in 12th place. "Second" was Trulli who came 10th, and Fisichella was 6th at the end of his run)

The Points (revised) :
5 points for guessing the correct driver.
For a correct number you get 10 points, 8 points for being one off, 6 for being two off and then 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1 points for the rest.

That way, you need to be really unlucky not to score any points, rather than having to be extremely lucky to get any point at all.;) Maximum points will be 30.

Random statistics:
I've been making an excel sheet to help me do the scores, and I entered in the results of all the races so far. This means I can give you some statistics to take some of the random factor out of this:

The Poleman
We've had 9 different polemen this season, but only three of them have won that title more than once. These are Alonso (4 times), R. Schumacher (3 times) and Barrichello (2 times). Of the top four teams, both M. Schumacher and Coulthard have never won the title of Poleman.

On average, the Poleman was on Provisional Pole for 8.87 runs, and the median value is 7.

The Lowman
The scores aren't as clear-cut in the Lowman category as 11 different drivers have 'won' that title, and four more often than once. These four drivers have all won it two times, and they are da Matta, Frentzen, Webber and Wilson. Of the top four teams, only Alonso and Raikkonen have had the dubious honour of being Lowman.

On average, the Lowman qualified in position 10,53, and the median value is 10.

Yes I like statistics



Alright, hope all of this makes sense You can post your guesses any time before the start of second qualifying. As first qualifying has a great effect on the outcome of second qualifying, editing is recommended and encouraged. Just make sure it's before the start of second qually, ok?;) Good luck!

My (provisional ;)) guesses:
1. Barrichello 6
2. Heidfeld 7

[Makarias]

Initial guess:
1. Button: 5
2. Panis: 8

Edit guess after first qual (why the hell not? Let's test if a late edit helps!) :
1. Montoya 6
2. Coulthard 6

[Brutom]

Montoya 4
Villenueve 8

[lukywill]

alonso 6
damatta 11

[Jimmino]

Panis 6
Coulthard 4

[arcsine]

1. Alonso 7
2. Webber 10

[Prostfan]

Panis 8
Webber 10

Well, I'm editing as well:
Poleman: Panis 4
Lowman: Trulli 7

[Marcel Schot]

Nice idea, Bjorn

Poleman : Da Matta 9
Lowman : Panis 7

[garth_b]

Webber 4
da Mata 10

[Ric Bol]

R. Schumacher 8
Webber 5

[Estwald]

Montoya-4
Coulthard - 9

[skylark68]

Montoya 5

daMatta 7

[TT6]

1. Räikkönen 5
2. Heidfeld 5

Alwrite! A bit of editing work...

[Viss1]

1. Button: 6
2. Sato: 10

[d_view7]

1. MS - 7
2. CdM - 8

[WillieF1]

M. Schumacher - 9
Sato - 14

[nichotj]

1. Alonso 7
2. Webber 10

[scheivlak]

Button 7
Trulli 6

Hope I've understood this....

[Bjorn]

The running order for saturday's qualifying:

#  Name

1.  Kiesa

2.  Verstappen

3.  Fisichella

4.  Firman

5.  Button

6.  Wilson

7.  da Matta

8.  Panis

9.  Frentzen

10. Sato

11. Heidfeld

12. Webber

13. Montoya

14. Barrichello

15. Alonso

16. Raikkonen

17. Coulthard

18. M Schumacher

19. R Schumacher

20. Trulli

Two things to consider:

1. The poleman can never get a higher value than 20 - . Thus, should Raikkonen get provisional pole, he can hold on to that pole for a maximum of 20 - 16 = 4 rounds, so any guesses of Raikkonen 6 or something like that will definately have either value wrong: if Raikkonen is the poleman the pole value cannot be more than 4, and if the pole value is 6, the poleman is definately someone other than Raikkonen. But of course knowing that at least one value will be wrong increases the chance of at least one value being right rather than both of them wrong so....;) In the same way, Kiesa is the only driver who could potentially get a value of (20 - 1 =) 19

2. The lowman can never get a higher value than . A guess like Verstappen 10 will definately get either value wrong again, since if Verstappen qualifies, he will definately be either 1st or 2nd at the end of his run.

You will be allowed to post or modify your guesses right until 2nd qually starts! Better not to wait 'till the last minute though, as I will post a notice here saying that bets are closed and any guess after that will be disqualified.

-----
For fun, here are what the scores would have been if this was 2nd qualifying:

WillieF1	8

Marcel Schot	5

Prostfan	4

Ric Bol	4

arcsine	3

nichotj	3

Viss1	3

Bjorn	3

scheivlak	3

d_view7	3

lukywill	2

TT6	1

skylark68	1

Jimmino	1

Estwald	1

Makarias	1

garth_b	0

Brutom	0

The scores for the actual round will almost certainly be higher as both values were much higher than would be expected from second qualifying: The 19th driver (Kiesa) qualified 19th, and Trulli was a relatively early driver and therefore was likely to hold on to pole position for a very long time (poleman value of 12). In second qualifying however, the 19th driver out (R Schumacher) will almost certainly qualify near the top, and the 8th driver out (Panis) is unlikely to to take provisional pole and hold out 'till the end. The values should be much lower.

To emphasize how unlikely high values like these are, the only race so far this season where someone has been given a provisional position of 19th at the end of their run was Verstappen in France, and those were extreme circumstances. The second worst performance compared to running order was Firman's 16th place in France. A poleman value of 12 or higher has actually happened a few times, but always when a top runner didn't do well enough in the first qualifying. Barrichello got a whopping 18 in Britain, and second is R Schumacher with a 15 in France.

[Czesc]

1. Räikkönen 4

And since this is experimental...

2. M. Schumacher 18

[KWSN - DSM]

I am still not sure that I completely understand this game. But let's see:

Olivier Panis - 6
Rubens Barichello - 6

[Jimmino]

Originally posted by Bjorn
The Guesses:
1. Who will have provisional pole for more runs than anyone else (henceforth known as the Poleman)? For how many runs?
2. Who will have the lowest provisional starting position at the end of his run (henceforth known as the Lowman)? What position will that be?

You should add to your game two more guesses:
1. Which driver obtains most positions against his 1st qual. and how many
2. Which driver loses most positions against his 1st qual. and how many

Example GP USA:


The correct answer would be for 1. guess Panis 11
and for 2nd guess Webber 11

[Bjorn]

Yep, I was actually thinking about that. Found some reason why I shouldn't do it but can't for the life of me remember what it was

Might give it a try next year, but I still haven't decided on the details. The day after I started this competition they changed the qualifying rules, meaning that next year there really isn't enough time between quallies for everyone to post their guesses and so the game becomes very much biased against, for example, those who connect from work. Again, don't know what I'll do exactly. I don't want the game to be completely random, and I want people to be able to post their guesses well in advance... We'll see

[Jimmino]

Originally posted by Bjorn
Yep, I was actually thinking about that. Found some reason why I shouldn't do it but can't for the life of me remember what it was

Might give it a try next year, but I still haven't decided on the details. The day after I started this competition they changed the qualifying rules, meaning that next year there really isn't enough time between quallies for everyone to post their guesses and so the game becomes very much biased against, for example, those who connect from work. Again, don't know what I'll do exactly. I don't want the game to be completely random, and I want people to be able to post their guesses well in advance... We'll see

Yes, you are right, your game is "built" for participants which have connection to Internet after 1st qual. But dont´t be afraid about game will be more complicated. To be honest I needed read rules twice to be shure what´s going on. First I was thinking you mean guesses like I propose now. In my opinion it will be fine to add this two more guesses. Just because of more points avalaible and it is still partly predictible before 1st qual.

Meantime I prepare also new guess game for new season which will also makes advantige for users with Internet connection during weekend.

Let´s see. I think your game has enough participants so far, so I see no problem with "connector from work".

Just think about my proposal, 4 guesses will be fine.

[fullcourseyellow]

Poleman: Button 5
Lowman: Coulthard 6

[Bjorn]

Oh yes, I meant that I'm worried about the fact that next year there will only be a couple of hours rather than a whole day between qually 1 and qually 2 next year, which is why I'll pretty much have to reinvent the game. But we'll see. Thanks for your suggestions. :up:

[Bjorn]

Closed! Anything posted or edited after this post will be ignored.

Thanks for your votes, expect the results shortly after qualifying.