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Guess something new: Round 1


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#1 kismet

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Posted 24 February 2004 - 17:32

:clap: Right. A brand new game - pristine territories to conquer, something different to suck at :clap:


What now? a.k.a. Relatively useless background information
I adopted this baby from Makarias (http://forums.atlasf...?threadid=65228) but have taken the liberty to approach the game concept a bit differently. I hope no one will feel cheated by this. The main reason behind the changes was my desire to keep a draw as a realistic possibility as opposed to just an oddity.

You know how F1 is supposed to be a team sport? Well, in that spirit, this competition is supposed to be about team effort rather than individual drivers. The two drivers’ contribution is considered equally important according to the principles explained below.

Rules in brief
This is loosely based on football (soccer) betting. I (ab)use my infinite wisdom and role as an all-powerful game host to pick inspired team duels for each Grand Prix, you predict the outcome and post your educated guesses in this thread.

I assume you’re all familiar with the good old 1X2 system used in football etc. betting, but just in case: 1 = home win, X = draw and 2 = away win. The home team is the one that’s mentioned first.

As an example of how this works, a simple head-to-head duel between Toyota and BAR:
Duel:	 Toyota - BAR	



Outcome:  1 = both Toyotas beat both BARs (TTBB)

		  2 = both BARs beat both Toyotas (BBTT)

		  X = anything mixed  (TBTB, TBBT, BTBT, BTTB)

More rules in more detail
The idea is that if a team is truly superior, it should have no trouble outperforming its duel opponent with both cars – hence what constitutes a team win. A mixed grid/race classification is, as far as this game is concerned, taken as a sign that a) the teams are close in terms of performance or b) somebody has stuffed up big time. Either way, at least one team, possibly both, has failed to live up to its potential and a draw seems suitable enough a reward for that. Bad luck simply doesn't exist.

As an exception (yes, there has to be one) to the above, if only one driver per team is classified for whatever the reason, I’ll just ignore the drivers that aren’t because they effectively cancel each other out and reward the team whose driver finishes higher with a win. See the example below for reference.

It may seem a bit funny and artificial that a grid/finishing order such as TBTB is considered a draw rather than a Toyota win even though in that example each Toyota has outperformed its direct duel opposition. Well, I kind of agree actually, but I also think that some fiddling with the definitions was required to increase the odds for an X. Otherwise it would ”never” happen and how much fun would that be?

A DNF is regarded as an equivalent of finishing last and all DNFs are considered equal. I don’t care if someone retires on lap 2 or 50. If that means a three-way tie in P18, then so be it. Similarly, in case more than one driver involved in a duel fails to set a time in qualifying, I will consider it a dead heat. Also, as far as qualifying duels go, I’d be inclined to ignore possible 10-place grid demotions and simply look at the times set. I’m sure there are scenarios I haven’t addressed here so I reserve the right to make something up should we stumble across something unexpected.

A couple of real-life examples from 2003 (still Toyota vs. BAR) :

Australia 



Qualifying:	Panis (Toyota) – 5th		Result: X		

			   Villeneuve (BAR) – 6th		

			   Button (BAR) – 8th

			   Da Matta (Toyota) – 16th



Race:		  Villeneuve (BAR) – 9th	  Result: 2

			   Button (BAR) – 10th

			   Double DNF for Toyota

	



And Malaysia:



Qualifying:	Button (BAR) – 9th		  Result: X (Again. Hmm.)

			   Panis (Toyota) – 10th

			   Da Matta (Toyota) – 11th 

			   Villeneuve (BAR) – 12th

 

Race:		  Button (BAR) – 7th		  Result: 2

			   Da Matta (Toyota) – 11th		 

			   Villeneuve, Panis - DNF

What’s the point? a.k.a. Scoring
Since this is a betting inspired game, the scoring will also reflect that. Basically, the more unlikely an outcome, the higher your score for picking it. Assuming that it becomes reality, obviously. But instead of pretending to master the art of calculating odds, I’ll simply go by your guesses and use the mark distribution as an indicator of probability. For each correct guess, your score will be 1 + the fraction of players that guessed wrong. Again, an example is probably in order: suppose 50 % of you has picked 1, 40 % X and the remaining 10 % 2. If 1 is the correct guess, the clever 50 % will score 1 + 0.5 = 1.5 points. Similarly, if X is the way to go, the score will be 1 + 0.6 =1.6 points etcetera.


I have this whole thing organised in a comfortably cluttery manner in my head but, as usual, seem to have trouble translating that into a coherent piece of writing. Which explains the lengthy mess you’ve just skimmed through. Sorry about that. Anyway, please do send feedback if you find gaping holes in the rules, want clarification for something, have ideas for improvement etc. Catchy name suggestions for this thing are also more than welcome.

Hmm. I think that’s about it (and about time too!) so let’s just move on to the good part. Here they are, the duels for Melbourne 2004:


Round 1:
Qualifying duels:				  Race duels: 

1   Ferrari - Williams			   7   Ferrari - Williams

2   McLaren - Renault			  8   McLaren - Renault

3   BAR - Sauber				   9   BAR - Sauber



4   Jaguar - Toyota				10  Jaguar - Toyota

5   Jordan - Minardi			   11  Jordan - Minardi

6   Renault - BAR				  12  Renault - BAR

For round 1, I’ve intentionally picked the same duels for qualifying and race. In case someone is wondering why the teams are paired as they are, I’ve simply consulted the 2003 WCC standings and added a winter championship battle.

Please post your guesses in the following format, starting from duel 1:

XXX 1X2 22X 111

Good luck! :wave:


EDIT:

Forgot to state the obvious - the deadline for your Melbourne entries is the beginning of the qualifying.


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#2 Estwald

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Posted 24 February 2004 - 17:39

X21 XX1 X21 211

#3 Pine

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Posted 24 February 2004 - 23:07

"something different to suck at"? :rotfl:

122 2X1 1X2 2X1

#4 Makarias

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Posted 25 February 2004 - 00:43

Nice modifications, kismet! A question: The percentage of players betting on each result, will they be rounded off to the nearest n*10% or what? ie points being handed out with a 0.1 point precision?

XX1 X1X 221 121

#5 garth_b

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Posted 25 February 2004 - 04:16

Kismet
Obviously you do not like PM's as you have that option turned off. Otherwise I would have PMed this suggestion to you.

Name for this game, as it is based loosely around Football Pools how about F1 pools or for something a little more quirky F1 Pulls. In my accent that sounds the same.

My entry for this round:

XX1 21X XXX 21X

#6 ans

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Posted 25 February 2004 - 05:11

2X1 211 XX2 X11

#7 Jimmino

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Posted 25 February 2004 - 07:08

XX1 X11 XX1 2X1

#8 Prostfan

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Posted 25 February 2004 - 07:38

XX1 X11 112 211

#9 The Kanisteri

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Posted 25 February 2004 - 08:46

X12 X1X XX2 XXX

#10 lukywill

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Posted 25 February 2004 - 12:58

2XX X11 222 221

#11 kismet

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Posted 25 February 2004 - 18:44

Originally posted by Makarias
A question: The percentage of players betting on each result, will they be rounded off to the nearest n*10% or what? ie points being handed out with a 0.1 point precision?

I think I prefer 0.01. That was the original plan anyway.


Originally posted by garth_b
Kismet
Obviously you do not like PM's as you have that option turned off. Otherwise I would have PMed this suggestion to you.

Name for this game, as it is based loosely around Football Pools how about F1 pools or for something a little more quirky F1 Pulls. In my accent that sounds the same.


Oops! :blush: I'll change the PM thing a.s.a.p. And thanks for those suggestions; I may very well choose one of them.

#12 130R

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Posted 25 February 2004 - 19:10

XX1 X11 11X XXX

#13 Nasty McBastard

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Posted 26 February 2004 - 01:28

X21 X11 XXX 211

#14 Crazy Canuck

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Posted 26 February 2004 - 17:35

X1X X11 XXX X11

#15 dnbn

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Posted 29 February 2004 - 04:21

221 X1X XX1 X11

#16 LB

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Posted 29 February 2004 - 18:56

X1X 211 XXX 211

#17 TT6

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Posted 29 February 2004 - 21:18

111 X11 X1X X11

#18 Pioneer

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Posted 01 March 2004 - 04:30

XXX 221 XXX 221

#19 Alapan

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Posted 01 March 2004 - 06:07

Qualifying duels: Race duels:
1 Ferrari - Williams 7 Ferrari - Williams
2 McLaren - Renault 8 McLaren - Renault
3 BAR - Sauber 9 BAR - Sauber

4 Jaguar - Toyota 10 Jaguar - Toyota
5 Jordan - Minardi 11 Jordan - Minardi
6 Renault - BAR 12 Renault - BAR


Outcome: 1 = both Toyotas beat both BARs (TTBB)
2 = both BARs beat both Toyotas (BBTT)
X = anything mixed (TBTB, TBBT, BTBT, BTTB)

X11 2X1 1X1 221

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#20 MaDDim

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Posted 01 March 2004 - 06:35

XX1 X1X X21 21X :eek:

#21 Czesc

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Posted 01 March 2004 - 10:11

212 211 X12 2X1

#22 AussieF1

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Posted 02 March 2004 - 05:23

X11 221 XX2 XXX

#23 mach4

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Posted 02 March 2004 - 05:59

2X1 211 2X1 211

#24 Ric Bol

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Posted 02 March 2004 - 15:11

1X2 221 12X XX2

#25 chris_canuk

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Posted 02 March 2004 - 15:15

2X1 X11 XXX 11X

#26 Aren

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Posted 02 March 2004 - 16:07

X21 X1X XX1 111

#27 kismet

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Posted 03 March 2004 - 18:19

Since I'm hosting this thing, I might as well participate too:

2XX X11 XX1 211

#28 wioyet

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Posted 03 March 2004 - 19:11

211 211 212 211

#29 QdfV

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Posted 03 March 2004 - 21:25

1X1 211 XX2 211

#30 Schuting Star

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Posted 03 March 2004 - 22:42

XX1 X11 XXX X1X

#31 Ventura

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Posted 03 March 2004 - 22:59

X21 X11 12X X11

#32 Bjorn

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 00:07

X11 21X X11 X11

#33 skylark68

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 00:43

xxx

222

122

212

I hope I have this figured - a "win" if it is a "2" is the second team eg- Ferrari-Williams - therefore, if I pick a "2", I am predicting a Williams sweep???

#34 Pascal

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 01:28

XX1 211 XX1 211

#35 AD

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 09:21

X21 X11 12X XX1

(originally: X23 X11 12X XX1, :lol: I meant to say 1 (i.e. I thought BAR, and then thought "ah there's a 3 beside BAR, maybe I'll be stupid and put that down instead of a 1" :blush: . Thanks to kismet for alerting me :up: :kiss: )

#36 d_view7

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 09:40

XX1 X11 2X1 1XX

#37 shays

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 09:47

X22 X11 11X 2XX

#38 Marcel Schot

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 09:55

XXX 211 XX2 2X1

#39 pinin406

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 10:13

2X2 211 111 221

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#40 ron

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 11:56

XX1 111 X21 21X

#41 Viss1

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 15:16

X1X X1X X1X X1X

I like patterns I guess :drunk:

#42 kismet

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 17:15

Originally posted by skylark68
I hope I have this figured - a "win" if it is a "2" is the second team eg- Ferrari-Williams - therefore, if I pick a "2", I am predicting a Williams sweep???

Yep.

#43 rich42

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 18:03

XX1 211 1XX 2X1

#44 WillieF1

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 19:02

X1X 211 XXX 211

#45 DeathMasteR

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Posted 04 March 2004 - 20:43

X11 X11 112 211

#46 Apex

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Posted 05 March 2004 - 16:23

1XX X1X 1XX XX1