What now? a.k.a. Relatively useless background information
I adopted this baby from Makarias (http://forums.atlasf...?threadid=65228) but have taken the liberty to approach the game concept a bit differently. I hope no one will feel cheated by this. The main reason behind the changes was my desire to keep a draw as a realistic possibility as opposed to just an oddity.
You know how F1 is supposed to be a team sport? Well, in that spirit, this competition is supposed to be about team effort rather than individual drivers. The two drivers’ contribution is considered equally important according to the principles explained below.
Rules in brief
This is loosely based on football (soccer) betting. I (ab)use my infinite wisdom and role as an all-powerful game host to pick inspired team duels for each Grand Prix, you predict the outcome and post your educated guesses in this thread.
I assume you’re all familiar with the good old 1X2 system used in football etc. betting, but just in case: 1 = home win, X = draw and 2 = away win. The home team is the one that’s mentioned first.
As an example of how this works, a simple head-to-head duel between Toyota and BAR:
Duel: Toyota - BAR Outcome: 1 = both Toyotas beat both BARs (TTBB) 2 = both BARs beat both Toyotas (BBTT) X = anything mixed (TBTB, TBBT, BTBT, BTTB)
More rules in more detail
The idea is that if a team is truly superior, it should have no trouble outperforming its duel opponent with both cars – hence what constitutes a team win. A mixed grid/race classification is, as far as this game is concerned, taken as a sign that a) the teams are close in terms of performance or b) somebody has stuffed up big time. Either way, at least one team, possibly both, has failed to live up to its potential and a draw seems suitable enough a reward for that. Bad luck simply doesn't exist.
As an exception (yes, there has to be one) to the above, if only one driver per team is classified for whatever the reason, I’ll just ignore the drivers that aren’t because they effectively cancel each other out and reward the team whose driver finishes higher with a win. See the example below for reference.
It may seem a bit funny and artificial that a grid/finishing order such as TBTB is considered a draw rather than a Toyota win even though in that example each Toyota has outperformed its direct duel opposition. Well, I kind of agree actually, but I also think that some fiddling with the definitions was required to increase the odds for an X. Otherwise it would ”never” happen and how much fun would that be?
A DNF is regarded as an equivalent of finishing last and all DNFs are considered equal. I don’t care if someone retires on lap 2 or 50. If that means a three-way tie in P18, then so be it. Similarly, in case more than one driver involved in a duel fails to set a time in qualifying, I will consider it a dead heat. Also, as far as qualifying duels go, I’d be inclined to ignore possible 10-place grid demotions and simply look at the times set. I’m sure there are scenarios I haven’t addressed here so I reserve the right to make something up should we stumble across something unexpected.
A couple of real-life examples from 2003 (still Toyota vs. BAR) :
Australia Qualifying: Panis (Toyota) – 5th Result: X Villeneuve (BAR) – 6th Button (BAR) – 8th Da Matta (Toyota) – 16th Race: Villeneuve (BAR) – 9th Result: 2 Button (BAR) – 10th Double DNF for Toyota And Malaysia: Qualifying: Button (BAR) – 9th Result: X (Again. Hmm.) Panis (Toyota) – 10th Da Matta (Toyota) – 11th Villeneuve (BAR) – 12th Race: Button (BAR) – 7th Result: 2 Da Matta (Toyota) – 11th Villeneuve, Panis - DNF
What’s the point? a.k.a. Scoring
Since this is a betting inspired game, the scoring will also reflect that. Basically, the more unlikely an outcome, the higher your score for picking it. Assuming that it becomes reality, obviously. But instead of pretending to master the art of calculating odds, I’ll simply go by your guesses and use the mark distribution as an indicator of probability. For each correct guess, your score will be 1 + the fraction of players that guessed wrong. Again, an example is probably in order: suppose 50 % of you has picked 1, 40 % X and the remaining 10 % 2. If 1 is the correct guess, the clever 50 % will score 1 + 0.5 = 1.5 points. Similarly, if X is the way to go, the score will be 1 + 0.6 =1.6 points etcetera.
I have this whole thing organised in a comfortably cluttery manner in my head but, as usual, seem to have trouble translating that into a coherent piece of writing. Which explains the lengthy mess you’ve just skimmed through. Sorry about that. Anyway, please do send feedback if you find gaping holes in the rules, want clarification for something, have ideas for improvement etc. Catchy name suggestions for this thing are also more than welcome.
Hmm. I think that’s about it (and about time too!) so let’s just move on to the good part. Here they are, the duels for Melbourne 2004:
Round 1:
Qualifying duels: Race duels: 1 Ferrari - Williams 7 Ferrari - Williams 2 McLaren - Renault 8 McLaren - Renault 3 BAR - Sauber 9 BAR - Sauber 4 Jaguar - Toyota 10 Jaguar - Toyota 5 Jordan - Minardi 11 Jordan - Minardi 6 Renault - BAR 12 Renault - BAR
For round 1, I’ve intentionally picked the same duels for qualifying and race. In case someone is wondering why the teams are paired as they are, I’ve simply consulted the 2003 WCC standings and added a winter championship battle.
Please post your guesses in the following format, starting from duel 1:
XXX 1X2 22X 111
Good luck!
EDIT:
Forgot to state the obvious - the deadline for your Melbourne entries is the beginning of the qualifying.