[b]Pos Name Tot Latest [/b] 1) Alapan 39 39 = Apex 39 39 = arcsine 39 39 = armonico 39 39 = babe 39 39 = CaptnMark 39 39 = capture_the_flag 39 39 = Cittànuova 39 39 = control 39 39 = coyoteBR 39 39 = D82 39 39 = DeathMasteR 39 39 = dnbn 39 39 = esorniloc 39 39 = Estwald 39 39 = fisichella_2001 39 39 = gerry nassar 39 39 = Jimmino 39 39 = Ladaman 39 39 = magicalonso 39 39 = Makarias 39 39 = Marcel Schot 39 39 = Marilyn Manson 39 39 = mimin 39 39 = Moanaman 39 39 = panzani 39 39 = race addicted 39 39 = Ric Bol 39 39 = scheivlak 39 39 = SeanValen 39 39 = shays 39 39 = SkorbiF1 39 39 = skylark68 39 39 = StickShift 39 39 = TT6 39 39 = turin 39 39 = WillieF1 39 39 = windsok 39 39 = woftam 39 39 = Xig 39 39 = Zawed 39 39 42) an1res 38 38 = Costaz 38 38 = kismet 38 38 = KWSN - DSM 38 38 46) LB 37 39 47) ray b 34 39A bit of action even in the first round. LB and ray b start the season with penalties for having too many points in their entry, two and five respectively, and four players have already missed a point due to Christian Klien. Those Red Bulls seemed to last the distance just fine.
The entries
The following list shows the maximum and minimum bets on each driver, plus the interesting 2006 popularity poll, which is the average of all bets on each driver, rounded off to integer values. In order to make the points sum 702, Michael Schumacher's average was rounded off upwards; his average actually being around 84.45. List sorted according to Popularity poll.
[b]Name Max Pop Min[/b] Alon 129 93 61 MSch 138 85 45 Räik 122 84 45 Fisi 100 66 37 Mont 101 62 27 Butt 93 59 22 Barr 73 47 26 Mass 90 41 0 Trul 49 29 9 RSch 60 29 0 Webb 50 27 10 Heid 42 20 0 Rosb 35 17 4 Coul 48 16 0 Vill 37 13 0 Klie 29 8 0 Liuz 10 2 0 Mtro 5 1 0 Spee 5 1 0 Albe 5 1 0 Sato 4 1 0 dlRo 8 0 0 Kova 12 0 0 Davi 4 0 0 Kubi 4 0 0 Wurz 6 0 0 Mgny 3 0 0 Ide 1 0 0 Jani 1 0 0 Zont 1 0 0The Popularity Poll was thus sort of expecting the Bahrain podium. Poor Yuji Ide only got a single point from two entries, and nothing from the rest of us...
How many players have guessed each driver for WDC?
[b]Driver Players[/b] Alon 20 Räik 16 MSch 12 Fisi 4 Mont 2 Butt 1There's 47 players this year, but some players have placed equal points on top drivers. The average points placed on any expected WDC is 102.2, which is lower than any actual WDC score has been in the last six years, except for 2003. Players tend to spread their eggs evenly between the baskets in this game...
Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
[b]Owner Owned[/b] <- = -> Alon 39 1 7 Fisi Räik 42 1 4 Mont MSch 47 0 0 Mass Trul 24 7 16 RSch Webb 40 1 6 Rosb Butt 37 1 9 Barr Coul 44 2 1 Klie Heid 38 3 6 Vill Mtro 17 24 6 Albe Liuz 22 19 6 Spee Sato 12 35 0 IdeDriver pairings being equal at the back of the field are typically expected to score zero points.
The Popularity Poll WCC:
[b]Team Points[/b] Renault 159 McLaren 146 Ferrari 126 Honda 106 Toyota 58 Williams 44 Sauber 33 Red Bull 24 Toro Rosso 3 Midland 2 Super Aguri 1
If the Popularity Poll turns out 100% correct, fat chance, the final results will look like this:
[b]Pos Name Tot[/b] 1) scheivlak 658 2) Ric Bol 657 3) arcsine 653 = fisichella_2001 653 5) Ladaman 652 6) gerry nassar 651 7) StickShift 646 = windsok 646 9) magicalonso 645 = TT6 645 11) Marilyn Manson 644 = SkorbiF1 644 13) Apex 642 = race addicted 642 15) shays 641 16) D82 638 = Makarias 638 18) CaptnMark 636 = WillieF1 636 20) DeathMasteR 634 = ray b 634 22) skylark68 631 23) LB 626 24) Alapan 625 25) Jimmino 622 26) Marcel Schot 621 27) Xig 620 28) Estwald 619 29) turin 618 30) capture_the_flag 612 = Zawed 612 32) control 611 33) armonico 609 = esorniloc 609 35) Moanaman 606 36) kismet 605 37) Costaz 604 = SeanValen 604 39) Cittànuova 595 = KWSN - DSM 595 41) an1res 590 = dnbn 590 43) woftam 589 44) panzani 587 45) babe 585 46) coyoteBR 566 47) mimin 544So scheivlak's entry is the "most average" one.
The Drivers' list
[b]Driver Expect Surprise Beat[/b] % % # Klien 11.9 3.3 4 Rosberg 11.7 5.6 0 Webber 11.0 5.9 0 Alonso 10.7 7.7 0 M Schumacher 9.5 5.8 0 Button 8.5 5.3 0 Räikkönen 7.1 4.9 0 Montoya 6.4 3.9 0 All others 0 0 0Mr. Klien takes four scalps in the first round already.
EXPLANATIONS:
-Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
-Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
-Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2006 this is 47.
The PTPC forecast
Will appear some time in April, when there have been a few races run.
