[b]Pos Name Tot Latest [/b] 1) Estwald 426 37 = Makarias 426 37 = skylark68 426 37 4) scheivlak 425 35 5) Ric Bol 424 36 6) SkorbiF1 423 33 7) magicalonso 422 34 8) arcsine 420 31 = Marcel Schot 420 33 = Marilyn Manson 420 31 11) an1res 419 39 = Ladaman 419 32 13) CaptnMark 418 29 = Cittànuova 418 29 = turin 418 31 16) Alapan 416 33 = shays 416 30 = WillieF1 416 29 19) TT6 414 29 20) mimin 413 27 = race addicted 413 24 22) gerry nassar 412 27 23) capture_the_flag 410 21 24) D82 408 26 = KWSN - DSM 408 36 26) fisichella_2001 407 22 = LB 407 23 28) control 405 23 = Jimmino 405 32 30) Apex 404 23 = SeanValen 404 31 32) windsok 403 15 33) DeathMasteR 401 29 34) coyoteBR 397 30 35) StickShift 395 23 36) armonico 392 21 37) Xig 388 19 38) esorniloc 387 23 = Moanaman 387 19 = ray b 387 18 41) dnbn 385 29 42) Costaz 383 24 43) kismet 379 15 44) panzani 373 21 45) woftam 357 16 46) babe 356 20 47) Zawed 350 23Popularity Poll: 423 points; 33 points from France.
Even the Popularity Poll drops away from the streak of perfect 39 scores, and not just due to de la Rosa: both Alonso and Massa have now scored points above expectations for the full season!
The entries
The Drivers' list
[b]Driver Expect Surprise Beat[/b] % % # de la Rosa 470,0 22,2 43 Alonso 102,8 73,8 28 Massa 102,7 46,2 25 M Schumacher 93,6 56,8 16 Fisichella 69,6 45,5 4 Heidfeld 64,6 30,2 10 Coulthard 61,8 20,4 8 Liuzzi 59,5 9,1 19 Villeneuve 55,4 18,4 14 Räikkönen 51,0 35,0 0 R Schumacher 45,2 21,3 2 Montoya 41,9 25,5 0 Barrichello 34,3 21,6 0 Button 27,2 17,0 0 Trulli 27,2 16,0 0 Rosberg 23,4 11,1 0 Webber 22,0 11,8 0 Klien 11,9 3,3 4Pedro de la Rosa storms to the top of the list, as expectations on test drivers tend to be low... Alonso and Massa, however, have beaten tougher expectations to go past the 100% mark. Well done!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2006 this is 47.
Guesses on the latest points scorers:
M Schumacher 79 [b]Alonso 96 [/b]Massa 42 [b]R Schumacher 13 [/b]Räikkönen 43 [b]Fisichella 46 [/b]de la Rosa 2 [b]Heidfeld 13 [/b] [b]mimin 138 [/b]armonico 129 [b]mimin 90 [/b]mimin 60 [b]shays 122 [/b]panzani 100 [b]Moanaman 8 [/b]Xig 42 [b]KWSN - DSM 111 [/b]an1res 125 [b]an1res 70 [/b]Alapan 54 [b]dnbn 117 [/b]Cittànuova 99 [b]an1res 6 [/b]Alapan 40 [b]Zawed 104 [/b]woftam 120 [b]Cittànuova 65 [/b]kismet 45 [b]KWSN - DSM 109 [/b]an1res 98 [b]coyoteBR 3 [/b]turin 36 [b]Estwald 103 [/b]babe 115 [b]coyoteBR 65 [/b]Apex 40 [b]DeathMasteR 108 [/b]capture_the_flag 97 [b]SeanValen 3 [/b]Zawed 35 [b]Jimmino 101 [/b]dnbn 115 [b]Jimmino 64 [/b]babe 38 [b]mimin 105 [/b]coyoteBR 91 [b]Alapan 0 [/b]LB 34 [b]Cittànuova 100 [/b]skylark68 115 [b]DeathMasteR 59 [/b]race addicted 38 [b]SkorbiF1 105 [/b]ray b 91 [b]Apex 0 [/b]race addicted 31 [b]Marilyn Manson 100 [/b]KWSN - DSM 110 [b]KWSN - DSM 56 [/b]armonico 37 [b]D82 102 [/b]woftam 88 [b]arcsine 0 [/b]panzani 30 [b]SeanValen 99 [/b]fisichella_2001 108 [b]WillieF1 55 [/b]esorniloc 37 [b]LB 102 [/b]esorniloc 87 [b]armonico 0 [/b]Cittànuova 29 [b]Alapan 98 [/b]Makarias 108 [b]Alapan 53 [/b]Zawed 37 [b]Marcel Schot 102 [/b]Jimmino 82 [b]babe 0 [/b]SeanValen 29 [b]Makarias 98 [/b]Marilyn Manson 105 [b]LB 53 [/b]gerry nassar 36 [b]panzani 100 [/b]SeanValen 81 [b]CaptnMark 0 [/b]Estwald 28 [b]Marcel Schot 98 [/b]turin 103 [b]Marcel Schot 53 [/b]Marcel Schot 36 [b]Ladaman 98 [/b]CaptnMark 80 [b]capture_the_flag 0 [/b]Marcel Schot 28 [b]skylark68 98 [/b]Estwald 102 [b]D82 49 [/b]Moanaman 36 [b]StickShift 98 [/b]armonico 78 [b]Cittànuova 0 [/b]Moanaman 28 [b]coyoteBR 96 [/b]magicalonso 102 [b]Ric Bol 49 [/b]WillieF1 36 [b]WillieF1 98 [/b]Costaz 78 [b]control 0 [/b]scheivlak 28 [b]WillieF1 94 [/b]arcsine 101 [b]SeanValen 49 [/b]Jimmino 35 [b]Ric Bol 96 [/b]Marilyn Manson 78 [b]Costaz 0 [/b]StickShift 27 [b]shays 92 [/b]CaptnMark 101 [b]Costaz 48 [/b]StickShift 34 [b]scheivlak 96 [/b]Zawed 75 [b]D82 0 [/b]armonico 26 [b]D82 89 [/b]panzani 100 [b]skylark68 46 [/b]D82 32 [b]TT6 95 [/b]turin 72 [b]DeathMasteR 0 [/b]woftam 26 [b]DeathMasteR 88 [/b]Ric Bol 100 [b]TT6 46 [/b]DeathMasteR 31 [b]control 91 [/b]Xig 72 [b]dnbn 0 [/b]ray b 25 [b]StickShift 88 [/b]Ladaman 98 [b]CaptnMark 45 [/b]arcsine 30 [b]fisichella_2001 91 [/b]dnbn 71 [b]esorniloc 0 [/b]SkorbiF1 24 [b]TT6 88 [/b]scheivlak 98 [b]Makarias 44 [/b]capture_the_flag 30 [b]kismet 91 [/b]Makarias 70 [b]Estwald 0 [/b]WillieF1 24 [b]Ric Bol 87 [/b]Alapan 95 [b]magicalonso 43 [/b]panzani 30 [b]Zawed 91 [/b]Ric Bol 70 [b]fisichella_2001 0 [/b]arcsine 23 [b]SkorbiF1 86 [/b]shays 95 [b]Estwald 42 [/b]ray b 30 [b]magicalonso 90 [/b]magicalonso 68 [b]gerry nassar 0 [/b]gerry nassar 22 [b]an1res 85 [/b]SkorbiF1 93 [b]gerry nassar 42 [/b]Xig 30 [b]Xig 90 [/b]Ladaman 65 [b]Jimmino 0 [/b]Marilyn Manson 22 [b]Apex 85 [/b]capture_the_flag 92 [b]SkorbiF1 41 [/b]coyoteBR 29 [b]windsok 89 [/b]skylark68 65 [b]kismet 0 [/b]TT6 20 [b]esorniloc 85 [/b]Costaz 92 [b]capture_the_flag 40 [/b]fisichella_2001 29 [b]Jimmino 86 [/b]DeathMasteR 64 [b]KWSN - DSM 0 [/b]Makarias 19 [b]turin 85 [/b]Jimmino 92 [b]Moanaman 40 [/b]scheivlak 29 [b]Alapan 85 [/b]arcsine 60 [b]Ladaman 0 [/b]D82 18 [b]Ladaman 84 [/b]LB 92 [b]scheivlak 40 [/b]windsok 29 [b]Apex 85 [/b]TT6 60 [b]LB 0 [/b]fisichella_2001 18 [b]dnbn 82 [/b]Marcel Schot 92 [b]Ladaman 38 [/b]Ladaman 28 [b]CaptnMark 85 [/b]WillieF1 60 [b]magicalonso 0 [/b]an1res 16 [b]scheivlak 82 [/b]kismet 90 [b]arcsine 35 [/b]TT6 28 [b]Costaz 85 [/b]fisichella_2001 58 [b]Makarias 0 [/b]capture_the_flag 16 [b]control 80 [/b]mimin 90 [b]control 35 [/b]LB 26 [b]ray b 82 [/b]LB 58 [b]Marcel Schot 0 [/b]esorniloc 16 [b]gerry nassar 80 [/b]race addicted 90 [b]Marilyn Manson 35 [/b]an1res 25 [b]Marilyn Manson 80 [/b]race addicted 58 [b]Marilyn Manson 0 [/b]magicalonso 16 [b]arcsine 79 [/b]windsok 90 [b]race addicted 35 [/b]Cittànuova 25 [b]Moanaman 80 [/b]control 57 [b]mimin 0 [/b]windsok 16 [b]race addicted 78 [/b]WillieF1 88 [b]windsok 35 [/b]Estwald 25 [b]gerry nassar 77 [/b]shays 57 [b]panzani 0 [/b]Apex 15 [b]magicalonso 76 [/b]Cittànuova 87 [b]ray b 34 [/b]Makarias 24 [b]babe 76 [/b]Apex 55 [b]race addicted 0 [/b]CaptnMark 15 [b]Xig 75 [/b]Apex 85 [b]turin 34 [/b]Ric Bol 23 [b]arcsine 71 [/b]babe 55 [b]ray b 0 [/b]control 15 [b]ray b 74 [/b]D82 85 [b]shays 32 [/b]SeanValen 22 [b]an1res 70 [/b]Estwald 53 [b]Ric Bol 0 [/b]shays 15 [b]CaptnMark 71 [/b]gerry nassar 83 [b]StickShift 32 [/b]turin 22 [b]armonico 70 [/b]windsok 53 [b]scheivlak 0 [/b]DeathMasteR 14 [b]Costaz 71 [/b]TT6 83 [b]esorniloc 31 [/b]CaptnMark 20 [b]woftam 70 [/b]Moanaman 51 [b]shays 0 [/b]skylark68 13 [b]fisichella_2001 70 [/b]control 81 [b]fisichella_2001 31 [/b]KWSN - DSM 20 [b]race addicted 69 [/b]kismet 50 [b]SkorbiF1 0 [/b]mimin 12 [b]kismet 70 [/b]ray b 75 [b]Apex 30 [/b]magicalonso 20 [b]skylark68 66 [/b]KWSN - DSM 50 [b]skylark68 0 [/b]dnbn 11 [b]windsok 69 [/b]StickShift 74 [b]kismet 30 [/b]shays 20 [b]Cittànuova 65 [/b]scheivlak 50 [b]StickShift 0 [/b]Ladaman 11 [b]capture_the_flag 68 [/b]Xig 74 [b]panzani 30 [/b]Costaz 18 [b]SeanValen 63 [/b]Marcel Schot 48 [b]TT6 0 [/b]Ric Bol 10 [b]LB 68 [/b]coyoteBR 73 [b]armonico 29 [/b]SkorbiF1 18 [b]Makarias 62 [/b]SkorbiF1 48 [b]turin 0 [/b]coyoteBR 9 [b]babe 65 [/b]DeathMasteR 71 [b]Xig 29 [/b]control 17 [b]Estwald 55 [/b]StickShift 46 [b]WillieF1 0 [/b]kismet 6 [b]Moanaman 64 [/b]Moanaman 71 [b]dnbn 15 [/b]skylark68 16 [b]esorniloc 52 [/b]gerry nassar 44 [b]windsok 0 [/b]Jimmino 4 [b]woftam 64 [/b]SeanValen 71 [b]babe 5 [/b]Marilyn Manson 15 [b]coyoteBR 51 [/b]mimin 41 [b]woftam 0 [/b]KWSN - DSM 4 [b]armonico 58 [/b]esorniloc 67 [b]woftam 0 [/b]dnbn 12 [b]turin 48 [/b]D82 38 [b]Xig 0 [/b]babe 0 [b]panzani 45 [/b]Zawed 61 [b]Zawed 0 [/b]woftam 0 [b]capture_the_flag 45 [/b]Alapan 37 [b]Zawed 0 [/b]Costaz 0Yep, just four players placed points on Pedro. I bet Moanaman is a bit pleased now.
The PTPC forecast
[b]Name Forecast[/b] an1res 581,5 -13,7 Cittànuova 571,4 -24,8 Marilyn Manson 556,0 -30,6 skylark68 555,5 -26,7 mimin 553,4 -5,2 Makarias 551,7 -22,3 Jimmino 546,4 -24,2 WillieF1 541,4 -23,4 Ric Bol 540,7 -22,3 armonico 536,7 -25,9 SeanValen 535,7 -16,1 Estwald 534,8 -24,4 Marcel Schot 534,6 -21,0 KWSN - DSM 534,1 -21,9 Alapan 533,2 -25,2 CaptnMark 528,5 -26,7 arcsine 525,5 -23,1 magicalonso 525,5 -23,5 TT6 524,5 -23,7 turin 521,8 -23,0 DeathMasteR 520,5 -23,7 shays 520,3 -26,3 Ladaman 520,1 -23,9 coyoteBR 517,0 -1,4 scheivlak 517,0 -22,6 SkorbiF1 516,5 -28,7 LB 513,2 -21,6 fisichella_2001 512,2 -22,8 race addicted 510,8 -25,4 D82 507,2 -23,4 ray b 501,9 -26,7 Apex 499,1 -23,9 Xig 497,7 -19,3 gerry nassar 497,5 -23,7 capture_the_flag 493,1 -25,7 StickShift 491,5 -23,7 Zawed 491,5 -23,7 dnbn 490,7 -27,7 woftam 489,5 -34,5 windsok 487,5 -23,3 control 486,7 -26,3 esorniloc 486,5 -27,3 Moanaman 485,2 -17,2 Costaz 482,5 -27,3 panzani 481,1 -23,9 babe 458,5 -23,7 kismet 450,5 -21,9 ---------------------------- Popularity Poll 535,2 -23,4Due to the changed driver situation I've locked Montoya's points at 26 for the forecast and have de la Rosa's points extrapolated from the French GP on. The result is not surprisingly very negative on the whole.
Note that coyoteBR's forecast didn't suffer all that much from this; as his entry only had 27 points on Montoya, he's looking near perfect on that one!
Another mild sufferer is mimin, who almost makes up for missed Montoya points by higher expected points totals for the Ferrari drivers.
