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Guess the Pole 2007: Japan


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 15 September 2007 - 14:57

BRAND NEW CIRCUIT OMG OMG TRIPLED TIME SPANS THIS IS CRAAAZYYY!!
OK, let's calm down here...

Mount Fuji is 4563 long, using the civilized unit of metres.
Here is a description of the track layout, with a very long main straight, twisty final section but overall probably quite high average speed.


[b]What average speed some laptimes around Fuji would give:

Lap time [s]  Av. speed [km/h][/b]

 70		   234.669

 72.5		 226.577

 75		   219.024

 77.5		 211.959

 80		   205.335



[b]Average speeds for this year's pole laps:

 GP	 Av. speed [km/h][/b]

 OZ	 221.800

MAL	 209.955

BAH	 210.283

ESP	 205.819

MON	 158.782

CAN	 207.373

USA	 208.640

FRA	 211.632

 GB	 231.353

EUR	 202.655

HUN	 197.686

TUR	 220.050

ITA	 254.336



Formula Nippon pole laptimes suggest that the average speed at Fuji is about 95% of 

what it is at Suzuka. This could of course depend upon characteristics for different 

racing series.



[b]Three latest poles at Japan-Suzuka:

Year  Driver	   Pole time [s]  Average speed[/b]

2006  Massa		 89.599		233.320  

2005  R Schumacher 106.106		197.022

2004  M Schumacher  93.542		223.485

How to enter: Just submit your guess for what the pole time will be, and who you think will take pole.
Ten position penalties are ignored (only) if they are due to disciplinary reasons.

Deadline:
Full entry is accepted only for entries submitted/edited before the start of first free practice.
Guesses entered or edited after first free practice will not get their driver guesses registered.
Final deadline is whenever I choose to register the entries; typically Friday evening CET. But always after first free practice. In case of me being absent and not able to register the entries in time, the absolute final deadline is the start of Saturday practice.

Scoring rules

-The best eight guessers (closest to the actual pole position time) Score points F1 style, 10-8-6-5-4-3-2-1.

-Precision points are given to every participant whose guess was sufficiently close the actual pole position time according to this list:

	 <-----------Time offsets----------->

Pts  Default   Modified Layout  New Track  [s]

10   - 0.050	   - 0.100	   - 0.150

 8   - 0.100	   - 0.200	   - 0.300

 6   - 0.200	   - 0.400	   - 0.600

 5   - 0.400	   - 0.800	   - 1.200

 4   - 0.600	   - 1.200	   - 1.800

 3   - 0.800	   - 1.600	   - 2.400

 2   - 1.200	   - 2.400	   - 3.600

 1   - 2.000	   - 4.000	   - 6.000
The first race of the season counts as a Modified Layout unless it's brand new.
A track that wasn't used the previous season also counts as a Modified Layout.

-Driver Points are given for correctly guessing the driver to take pole position. The amount of points given depends on the current value of the driver, according to this list:

Pts   Recent qualifying results

 5	 0 front row starts in the previous five races

 4	 1 front row start in the previous five races

 3	 2 front row starts in the previous five races

 2	 3-5 front row starts in the previous five races

2007 standings after Belgium


[b]Three latest poles at Japan-Fuji:[/b]

BRAND NEW TRACK!



[b]Driver values:

Dri  val[/b]

Alon  2

Hami  2

Mass  3

Räik  3

REST  5 



[b]2007 data:

				  Time	2006	 2006 fastest  2007/2006  

GP   Pole  #2	  (s)	pole(s)  race lap (s)	 (%)	   [/b]

OZ   Räik  Alon   86.072   85.229   86.045	   100.989

MAL  Mass  Alon   95.043   93.840   94.803	   101.282

BAH  Mass  Hami   92.652   91.431   92.408	   101.335

ESP  Mass  Alon   81.421   74.648   76.648	   109.073

MON  Alon  Hami   75.726   73.898   75.143	   102.474

CAN  Hami  Alon   75.707   74.942   75.841	   101.021

USA  Hami  Alon   72.331   70.832   72.719	   102.116

FRA  Mass  Hami   75.034   75.493   77.111		99.392

GB   Hami  Räik   79.997   80.253   81.599		99.681

GER  Räik  Alon   91.450   89.819   92.099	   101.816

HUN  Alon  Hami   79.674   79.599   83.516	   100.094

TUR  Mass  Hami   87.329   86.907   88.005	   100.486

ITA  Alon  Hami   81.997   81.484   82.559	   100.630

BEL  Räik  Mass  105.994   ------   ------		------

JAP						------   ------		------

CHN					   104.360   97.586			  

BRA						70.680   72.162

My guess for Japan is 75.732 s by Lewis Hamilton.

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#2 Frogman

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 10:01

Here's my guess:

76.218 - Alonso

#3 Makarias

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 13:45

Looking at the FNippon pole times a bit more closely, the speed difference would be somewhere in the 91.5%-95.5% range. So a bit of an indicator, but not extremely precise.

#4 Apex

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Posted 17 September 2007 - 23:33

77.173 - Massa

#5 sek

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Posted 18 September 2007 - 19:37

75.000 - Alonso

#6 skylark68

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Posted 21 September 2007 - 01:46

76.920 Alonso

(Indebted to you Makarias for the arithmetic - thanks. Their site is full of dead links).

#7 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 24 September 2007 - 14:42

1:19:711 - Kimi Raikkonen

:cool:

#8 scheivlak

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Posted 24 September 2007 - 22:02

Fernando Alonso 75.711

:cool:

#9 mimin

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Posted 25 September 2007 - 02:42

Massa 76.555

#10 Kooper

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Posted 25 September 2007 - 17:09

75.326 Hamilton

#11 estoril85

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Posted 25 September 2007 - 18:41

hamilton 81.774

#12 Makarias

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Posted 25 September 2007 - 23:01

I'm changing my guess to 76.822 s by Fernando Alonso.

#13 rodlamas

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Posted 25 September 2007 - 23:21

Hamilton 75.888

#14 dnbn

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Posted 26 September 2007 - 01:19

84.323 Hamilton

#15 Estwald

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Posted 26 September 2007 - 01:50

77.777 - Alonso

#16 fisichella_2001

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Posted 26 September 2007 - 15:13

78.624 - F Alonso

#17 LB

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Posted 26 September 2007 - 16:50

78.345 Massa

#18 Zawed

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 01:05

Massa 77.582

#19 shays

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 03:06

Raikkonen 77.888 seconds

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#20 Alapan

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 07:43

Raik: 82.000

#21 Moanaman

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 09:27

Alonso - 77.890

#22 Xig

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 13:38

Raikkonen - 73.651

#23 an1res

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 14:23

72.000 Alonso

#24 kismet

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 16:41

Räikkönen - 74.999

#25 D82

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 18:15

76.543 - Raikkonen

#26 THE HUMAN MAN

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 18:24

kimi Raikkonen - 1:16:855

#27 brunopascal

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 19:16

Raikkonen - 75.100

#28 italiansdoitbetter

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 20:15

hamilton 78.222

#29 jomaizta

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 22:04

Alonso 76.333

#30 boost

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 22:06

Raik 77.214

#31 AcuraF1

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Posted 27 September 2007 - 22:25

Raikkonen 76.927

#32 garth_b

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Posted 28 September 2007 - 01:08

69.851 Raikkonen

#33 AussieF1

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Posted 28 September 2007 - 03:47

76.232 Alonso

#34 Makarias

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Posted 28 September 2007 - 23:11

Well, no more entries... Late guesses by garth_b and AussieF1, so no driver guesses for them.