3 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after the Chinese GP:

[b]Pos Name			 Tot Latest [/b]

1)  Costaz		   550 22

2)  turin			540 30

3)  AcuraF1		  535 22

4)  Moanaman		 532 17

=   paranoik0		532 23

6)  Makarias		 530 17

7)  LB			   527  9

8)  Kooper		   525 23

9)  armonico		 524 13

=   D82			  524 22

11) KWSN - DSM	   523  9

=   scheivlak		523 23

13) Estwald		  520 22

14) magicalonso	  519 13

15) arcsine		  518 18

=   meheeco		  518 16

17) kismet		   513 21

18) dnbn			 510 18

19) jomaizta		 509 21

20) fisichella_2001  506 23

21) Crazy Canuck	 499 21

22) esorniloc		496 14

23) lukywill		 493 23

24) Alapan		   490 23

25) Zawed			489 18

26) race addicted	487  8

27) coyoteBR		 483 13

=   shays			483 24

29) jokuvaan		 482 21

30) Gilles4Ever	  479 20

=   mimin			479 23

32) skylark68		476 17

33) HoldenRT		 474  8

34) Apex			 469 18

35) an1res		   466 12

36) control		  463 20

37) TT6			  462 22

38) kNt			  457  9

=   Xig			  457  9

40) DeathMasteR	  440  5

Some very low scores this round, as turin is the only one to score full points for the podium finishers, and nobody has placed anything on Vettel of course. But still every player got four points from Jenson Button, who needs a win in Brazil to fulfill even the lowest expectations on him.

Popularity Poll: 527 points, 22 points in China.

The entries

The Drivers' list

[b]Driver		 Expect  Surprise Beat[/b]

				 %	   %	   #

Vettel		 INFIN	600,0   40

Sutil		  444,4	 16,7   36

Sato		   313,7	 33,3   35

Hamilton	   211,4	144,6   40

Coulthard	  136,9	 40,0   30

Liuzzi		 126,3	 25,0   25

Heidfeld	   126,0	 69,0   34

Alonso		 115,9	 89,6   34

Räikkönen	   99,7	 70,9   17

Massa		   98,2	 63,2   20

Rosberg		 92,3	 35,7   20

Webber		  92,0	 33,3   18

Kubica		  89,5	 49,3   13

Wurz			83,6	 28,3   18

Kovalainen	  64,3	 35,7	2

Fisichella	  44,4	 29,6	1

Trulli		  44,2	 17,1	4

Schumacher	  28,1	 11,4	2

Button		  16,0	  9,2	0

Liuzzi makes it past the 100% mark with his first points scoring result of the year. The Ferrari guys are knocking on that door too, and only need to score one point each in Brazil to make it. I suppose especially Kimi wants more than that though, the greedy git.

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2007 this is 40.

Guesses on the latest points scorers:

Räikkönen	   100 [b]Alonso		  103 [/b]Massa			86 [b]Vettel			6 [/b]Button			6 [b]Liuzzi			3 [/b]Heidfeld		 58 [b]Coulthard		14 [/b]

[b]mimin		   140 [/b]lukywill		114 [b]mimin		   135 [/b]de la Rosa		  [b]magicalonso	  64 [/b]dnbn			 11 [b]kNt			  83 [/b]race addicted	34 

[b]jokuvaan		133 [/b]shays		   114 [b]Gilles4Ever	 116 [/b]DeathMasteR	  20 [b]control		  60 [/b]HoldenRT		 11 [b]Xig			  68 [/b]HoldenRT		 27 

[b]Gilles4Ever	 129 [/b]an1res		  108 [b]meheeco		 112 [/b]arcsine		   5 [b]armonico		 58 [/b]arcsine		   7 [b]Alapan		   60 [/b]Xig			  23 

[b]paranoik0	   125 [/b]armonico		106 [b]paranoik0	   111 [/b]Moanaman		  5 [b]shays			58 [/b]Apex			  5 [b]LB			   60 [/b]coyoteBR		 22 

[b]shays		   119 [/b]jomaizta		106 [b]skylark68	   111 [/b]Others			0 [b]Xig			  56 [/b]Moanaman		  5 [b]Moanaman		 60 [/b]arcsine		  16 

[b]TT6			 118 [/b]turin		   105 [b]AcuraF1		 109 [/b]					[b]Crazy Canuck	 55 [/b]paranoik0		 4 [b]Estwald		  58 [/b]shays			16 

[b]fisichella_2001 116 [/b]fisichella_2001 101 [b]turin		   105 [/b]Zonta			   [b]coyoteBR		 51 [/b]skylark68		 4 [b]jokuvaan		 57 [/b]Apex			 15 

[b]Kooper		  115 [/b]Kooper		  101 [b]D82			 100 [/b]Moanaman		  6 [b]Apex			 50 [/b]Zawed			 4 [b]an1res		   56 [/b]Zawed			15 

[b]D82			 113 [/b]scheivlak	   101 [b]jokuvaan		 99 [/b]Others			0 [b]an1res		   46 [/b]control		   3 [b]Costaz		   55 [/b]dnbn			 14 

[b]turin		   113 [/b]Costaz		   99 [b]Moanaman		 99 [/b]					[b]scheivlak		46 [/b]jomaizta		  3 [b]KWSN - DSM	   53 [/b]Moanaman		 14 

[b]Estwald		 112 [/b]skylark68		99 [b]Estwald		  98 [/b]Piquet			  [b]kNt			  45 [/b]kNt			   3 [b]paranoik0		53 [/b]jokuvaan		 13 

[b]Crazy Canuck	111 [/b]control		  98 [b]jomaizta		 98 [/b]coyoteBR		  5 [b]Zawed			45 [/b]magicalonso	   3 [b]armonico		 52 [/b]LB			   13 

[b]kismet		  109 [/b]esorniloc		98 [b]Alapan		   96 [/b]Others			0 [b]fisichella_2001  44 [/b]mimin			 3 [b]Gilles4Ever	  52 [/b]skylark68		12 

[b]Makarias		106 [/b]Moanaman		 96 [b]Crazy Canuck	 94 [/b]					[b]skylark68		44 [/b]race addicted	 3 [b]jomaizta		 52 [/b]TT6			  11 

[b]scheivlak	   105 [/b]AcuraF1		  95 [b]esorniloc		92 [/b]Gene				[b]dnbn			 43 [/b]scheivlak		 3 [b]Kooper		   52 [/b]an1res		   10 

[b]AcuraF1		 104 [/b]Makarias		 94 [b]magicalonso	  91 [/b]Moanaman		  2 [b]esorniloc		43 [/b]AcuraF1		   2 [b]Makarias		 52 [/b]control		  10 

[b]control		 104 [/b]meheeco		  94 [b]coyoteBR		 90 [/b]Others			0 [b]Alapan		   40 [/b]coyoteBR		  2 [b]meheeco		  50 [/b]turin			10 

[b]Zawed		   103 [/b]dnbn			 93 [b]kismet		   90 [/b]					[b]kismet		   40 [/b]D82			   2 [b]mimin			49 [/b]esorniloc		 9 

[b]Alapan		  102 [/b]magicalonso	  93 [b]TT6			  87 [/b]Karthikeyan		 [b]race addicted	40 [/b]fisichella_2001   2 [b]turin			48 [/b]fisichella_2001   9 

[b]arcsine		 102 [/b]mimin			91 [b]Costaz		   86 [/b]Moanaman		  2 [b]HoldenRT		 38 [/b]TT6			   2 [b]dnbn			 46 [/b]kismet			9 

[b]lukywill		101 [/b]paranoik0		91 [b]KWSN - DSM	   85 [/b]Others			0 [b]TT6			  36 [/b]turin			 2 [b]Zawed			46 [/b]scheivlak		 9 

[b]Apex			100 [/b]arcsine		  89 [b]Kooper		   82 [/b]					[b]jomaizta		 35 [/b]Xig			   2 [b]arcsine		  45 [/b]AcuraF1		   8 

[b]dnbn			100 [/b]kismet		   89 [b]Makarias		 82 [/b]Klien			   [b]Makarias		 34 [/b]Alapan			1 [b]coyoteBR		 45 [/b]armonico		  8 

[b]Costaz		   97 [/b]KWSN - DSM	   87 [b]fisichella_2001  81 [/b]coyoteBR		  1 [b]meheeco		  34 [/b]Costaz			1 [b]Crazy Canuck	 45 [/b]D82			   7 

[b]meheeco		  96 [/b]Zawed			87 [b]arcsine		  80 [/b]Moanaman		  1 [b]arcsine		  33 [/b]Crazy Canuck	  1 [b]D82			  45 [/b]DeathMasteR	   7 

[b]LB			   93 [/b]LB			   85 [b]armonico		 79 [/b]Others			0 [b]Gilles4Ever	  32 [/b]esorniloc		 1 [b]kismet		   45 [/b]magicalonso	   7 

[b]armonico		 91 [/b]D82			  83 [b]DeathMasteR	  79 [/b]					[b]Kooper		   32 [/b]kismet			1 [b]HoldenRT		 44 [/b]Alapan			6 

[b]DeathMasteR	  91 [/b]Crazy Canuck	 82 [b]shays			78 [/b]Montagny			[b]D82			  30 [/b]Kooper			1 [b]magicalonso	  43 [/b]Costaz			6 

[b]KWSN - DSM	   89 [/b]Apex			 80 [b]scheivlak		77 [/b]Moanaman		  2 [b]lukywill		 29 [/b]lukywill		  1 [b]race addicted	42 [/b]mimin			 6 

[b]magicalonso	  88 [/b]Estwald		  80 [b]dnbn			 75 [/b]Others			0 [b]DeathMasteR	  28 [/b]Makarias		  1 [b]shays			42 [/b]jomaizta		  5 

[b]race addicted	88 [/b]HoldenRT		 78 [b]LB			   74 [/b]					[b]AcuraF1		  27 [/b]shays			 1 [b]AcuraF1		  41 [/b]kNt			   5 

[b]esorniloc		87 [/b]coyoteBR		 77 [b]control		  72 [/b]Bourdais			[b]jokuvaan		 25 [/b]an1res			0 [b]scheivlak		40 [/b]paranoik0		 5 

[b]Moanaman		 87 [/b]Gilles4Ever	  77 [b]lukywill		 72 [/b]coyoteBR		  1 [b]LB			   25 [/b]armonico		  0 [b]esorniloc		35 [/b]Estwald		   4 

[b]jomaizta		 85 [/b]race addicted	74 [b]Xig			  72 [/b]Others			0 [b]turin			24 [/b]DeathMasteR	   0 [b]fisichella_2001  31 [/b]Gilles4Ever	   4 

[b]HoldenRT		 83 [/b]TT6			  71 [b]Apex			 70 [/b]					[b]paranoik0		22 [/b]Estwald		   0 [b]lukywill		 31 [/b]Kooper			4 

[b]Xig			  82 [/b]Alapan		   70 [b]race addicted	68 [/b]					[b]Costaz		   21 [/b]Gilles4Ever	   0 [b]Apex			 30 [/b]KWSN - DSM		4 

[b]coyoteBR		 76 [/b]DeathMasteR	  70 [b]HoldenRT		 67 [/b]					[b]Estwald		  20 [/b]jokuvaan		  0 [b]TT6			  22 [/b]lukywill		  4 

[b]kNt			  76 [/b]kNt			  69 [b]an1res		   66 [/b]					[b]mimin			16 [/b]KWSN - DSM		0 [b]control		  20 [/b]Crazy Canuck	  3 

[b]skylark68		70 [/b]Xig			  61 [b]Zawed			64 [/b]					[b]KWSN - DSM	   15 [/b]LB				0 [b]skylark68		18 [/b]Makarias		  3 

[b]an1res		   52 [/b]jokuvaan		 50 [b]kNt			  60 [/b]					[b]Moanaman		 15 [/b]meheeco		   0 [b]DeathMasteR	  15 [/b]meheeco		   2

A 100% surprise is now out of reach for Alonso. Liuzzi can still make it though, if he wins in Brazil!

The PTPC forecast

[b]Name			 Forecast[/b]

turin			559,9   6,6

Costaz		   557,8  -3,3

paranoik0		551,6   5,6

AcuraF1		  549,5   3,4

Moanaman		 547,6  -0,7

Makarias		 543,3   2,0

D82			  542,8   3,4

Estwald		  539,9   0,1

Kooper		   537,8   2,4

scheivlak		536,3   1,1

LB			   535,6  -2,9

armonico		 533,5  -2,2

magicalonso	  531,3   0,7

KWSN - DSM	   531,3  -4,1

meheeco		  529,9  -2,1

kismet		   529,8   2,4

arcsine		  527,2   2,1

jomaizta		 522,5   2,4

Crazy Canuck	 517,9   4,6

fisichella_2001  517,2   5,2

dnbn			 517,1  -0,1

lukywill		 508,7  -2,0

Alapan		   506,5  -1,8

esorniloc		506,3   0,6

jokuvaan		 501,1   1,0

shays			499,0   8,9

Zawed			498,8   3,3

mimin			496,3   7,2

coyoteBR		 495,5  -2,0

race addicted	495,1   1,6

Gilles4Ever	  494,9   4,6

skylark68		485,9   3,5

HoldenRT		 484,2  -1,8

an1res		   478,1  -3,2

Apex			 476,8   0,3

TT6			  474,5   4,8

control		  472,3   3,6

kNt			  469,8  -3,6

Xig			  467,4  -1,8

DeathMasteR	  446,1  -2,3

Now, here's an interesting shift in the very last forecast of the season! Costaz is demoted to second place in this forecast, with turin moving ahead. More analysis on this later...

[Makarias]

Here's an analysis on which drivers Costaz and turin should be rooting for in Brazil:

[b]

Driver WDC  Costaz turin Max.impact Impact-probability[/b]

Mass	86   86	105	tur +10   Very High

Räik   100   97	113	tur +10   Very High

Schu	 5   10	 15	tur + 5   Very Low 

Trul	 7	6	 11	tur + 4   Low

Alon   103   99	105	tur + 2   Very High

Kubi	35   41	 37	Cos + 4   High

Kova	30   58	 35	Cos + 5   Very Low

Rosb	15   20	 15	Cos + 5   High

Wurz	13   21	 11	Cos + 8   Low

At China, turin's forecast got boosted from the nice Ferrari result, whereas Costaz suffered a bit from Kubica's unfortunate DNF. Big names like Kimi, Felipe and Frodo can still easily help turin gain up to 20 points on Costaz in Brazil, whereas Costaz' greatest hopes for making a positive difference are Kubica to finish P6 or higher, and Nico to score points. Then again of course Costaz goes in to the final round with a ten point lead, and all drivers that aren't listed here can still help Costaz by taking points away from turin's hopes. Hamilton, Heidfeld, Fisichella, Red Bulls, Hondas... Put simply, any driver ahead of the Ferraris, Frodo and Jarno is good for Costaz. Ralf scoring a podium surely is joke of the week, isn't it?

[Costaz]

Makarias' analysis: Very impressive.

As for the showdown, the Team Costaz welcomes the last minute challenge by Team turin, feeling comfortable that it will maintain the lead up to the end. The team manager's statement is clear: "We wish our opponents good luck, but we are adamant that we can still do it!".

[noikeee]

Looks like it's a very close finale here, interesting..

The battle for 3rd place is very close too, my hopes are on the Ferraris and the BMWs in Brazil.