Journalists' prediction for the F1 2007 Season

Autosport just posted its predictions and insights into 2007 Season. SpeedTv has an interview with Bob Varsha here. I think both are good starts. Also it would be interesting to see similar accounts from different countries.

Money quote of some (since not everybody has a subscription, I’ll quote some)

From Autosport :

Damien Smith (DS)
I refuse to believe Felipe Massa is world champion material, but he's certainly good enough to help Ferrari to the constructors' title

Matt Bishop
Alonso will be champion again because he's the most complete driver and because the McLaren has been very impressive in testing, despite Raikkonen's genius and the Ferrari's evident pace (quicker by the week, seemingly).

Jonathan Noble
Ferrari may have lost Michael Schumacher and Ross Brawn, but Jean Todt will not allow the train to leave its tracks. Felipe Massa, having learned alongside the master last year, will put it all to good use to head off the threat of both his own Ferrari teammate Kimi Raikkonen, who will continue to be dogged by bad luck, and a very-strong Alonso at McLaren.

Ross Stonefeld
We will have three drivers with a realistic chance for the title going into the final round but Nick Heidfeld will be world champion. He won't be spectacular, but with steady performance and reliability he'll just get more points than anyone else in what will be a very open and chaotic season

From SpeedTV’s Bob Varsha:
SPEED: Predict the top-three finishers in the F1 Drivers Championship:

Varsha: Fernando Alonso, Felipe Massa, Kimi Raikkonen. I really can’t see any reason not to back Alonso, despite the change of team, given what he has shown in the last two seasons. I think he really has no weaknesses, although his biggest challenge this year may be organizing the team around him, given the corporate culture at McLaren. I also think Massa will win the early battle to gain the upper hand over Raikkonen at Ferrari if given the chance. That’s a big “if,” but given the upheaval on the technical side at Big Red, they need a driver who is sound on the engineering side, and I think we know that’s not Kimi’s strength. But Raikkonen is so gifted I’ll put him third, and if the car is right he could do much better.
http://www.paddockta...ticle&sid=49834



I think it would be interesting to post some other somewhat unknown journos to the fore, maybe from Italy, Brazil, Argentina, France, Australia,…there must be journos with F1 experience there, but we almost never heard about them. Recently we have a lot of news from AS, TS, Gazzeta, but quite a few OPINION pieces. Also some sites are subscription based, others there is the language barrier, we could build a source of info here. What do you think?

Very intelligent Matt Bishop.

;)

Hey, these guys actually make the posters here sound like experts!

Nick Heidfeld Well..... it's possible, I mean he is in the championship, but the BMW has been anything but reliable. And to win a championship, reliability is key.

Gotta give it to you Ross, if he does win it, only you and his momma will have predicted it

Originally posted by fumes

Hey, these guys actually make the posters here sound like experts!

I'm really surprised by Vasha's opinion relative to KR as I've always respected him for being rather knowledgable and objective. He along with Matchet and Hobbs voted Raikkonen driver of the year for '05. What changed since then other than having had to endure a season with the POS '06 McLaren.

Go go Ross's picks!

Wow, Ross! Da Man.

who'd give a damn to a journalist's opinion anyway?

Whats 'Stoned'feld been smoking? I want some

Nevertheless, I'd love to see quick nick win it too (if its not gonna be one of the Maccas that is ;) )

Not long now - I work across the road from the park, and the five storey building overlooks the track just on the slow right hander (turn 5?) - after the little short straight where Burti smacked his Jaguar into the wall coming out of the little 'stadium' complex.

The fact that we've had a big drought here in Victoria means the trees are very bare and the visibility is even better. On the friday we're knocking off at midday and going up on the roof for a little barbie and some beers. Its gonna be great!

Interesting to note how they can calculate Kimi's engineering abilities by his personality.
He used to finance his own driving by engineering in the lower formulae and he has a car mechanic's scholarship. He is surely more knowledgeable on the engineering side than your average F1 driver.

Originally posted by Nobody
Whats 'Stoned'feld been smoking? I want some

This is the subject of numerous debates.

Originally posted by fumes

Hey, these guys actually make the posters here sound like experts!

Originally posted by fumes

Hey, these guys actually make the posters here sound like experts!

My thoughts exactly. Boy oh boy, these guys are supposed to be well enough informed to make a living (of sorts) out of F1. I'm just glad we're not relying on such guys to do our engineering or science for us.

They don't have any shinier of a crystal ball than you guys..

Some of the reasoning behind the predictions is ludicrous/fanboyish to say the least.

Originally posted by HSJ


My thoughts exactly. Boy oh boy, these guys are supposed to be well enough informed to make a living (of sorts) out of F1. I'm just glad we're not relying on such guys to do our engineering or science for us.

No, we leave that to you.

Originally posted by beancounter
Some of the reasoning behind the predictions is ludicrous/fanboyish to say the least.

I have to admit, Ross' comments were perhaps the most interesting of the lot because otherwise I could have been forvgiven reading the autosport.com/indeed the as print rag 'preview' as being the product of some here from the forums.

I do question the 'general' consensus that everyone is going to catchup to Ferrari by Barcelona, or at least specifically McLaren.

All through 2004, 2005, 2006 McLaren has tried to play catchup on performance and reliability unsuccessfully. All last year we heard of 'quantum steps' that turned out to just see McLaren fall further behind Ferrari and Renault.

I sometimes think journalists write what they wish to be true, rather than what actaully is true. And this is especially the case with the autosport print rag.

Also what was a little saddening was the normally excellent scarborough seemingly not appeciating the performance impact 2007 / dual separator wings have on performance. Suggesting that the change of wing snubber would have negligible impact to a car's relative performance. This flies in the face of comments from numerous drivers and teams suggesting these wings do have an impact on efficiency and speed, particularly pointing to McLaren and BMW not running 07 compliant wings in Bahrain and that deceiving the times a bit (i.e. they'll be a little bit slower with the 07 wings).

Thomas O'Keefe as usual...

Who is Ross Stonefeld?

Some guys from Brazil:



Flavio Gomes (who I think is full of crap 85% of the time): (...) Não haverá equilíbrio absoluto, nem enorme competitividade. É cascata. Apenas duas equipes se apresentam como candidatas ao título. A Ferrari, que andou muito bem na pré-temporada, e a McLaren, porque tem Alonso. O resto vai ser a briga de foice de sempre pelas migalhas que sobrarem. (...) link

translated: There will be no absolute balance, nor enormous competitivity (between the teams). Omly two teams will present themselves as title candidates. Ferrari, who went very well in winter testing, and Mclaren, because of Alonso. The rest will fight for the leftovers, as usual.





Reginaldo Leme: (...) O certo é que Felipe está fazendo a sua parte muito bem. Sempre que dividiu a pista com o finlandês, ele nunca permitiu que o companheiro rival ficasse à sua frente. As bolsas de apostas da Inglaterra, país onde se aposta em tudo, mesmo não tendo jogo do bicho, agora que terminaram os treinos da pré-temporada, vão tornar públicas as suas cotações. E Felipe Massa deve sair na frente, podem apostar. link

translated and summed: He thinks Felipe has done very well, never allowing Raikkonen to be faster. He won't be suprised if the betting houses in England give him better odds.




Téo José: Acredito no Massa. A sorte está nas mãos dele. Tem no mínimo um carro com possibilidades de lutar por vitórias e título. Conhece a equipe e não creio que vai haver favorecimento ao Kimi, pelo salário que ganha. Seria, no mínimo, burrice entrar em uma disputa dura como esta já prejudicando um dos seus dois pilotos. Uma coisa é Räikkönen. Outra é Schumacher.

Vamos deixar as provas rolarem, sem este papo de pressão, preconceito, complexo ou conspiração. Fórmula 1 é uma modalidade esportiva. Um esporte individual, onde a cabeça conta muito. Vejo Felipe tranqüilo e com confiança. Aliando isto a um bom carro, porque não teria chances? Tem sim. Como outros. Entre eles, Fernando Alonso e Kimi Räikkönen. Que venha o sinal verde e a emoção pura de mais um ótimo campeonato. Esta é minha maior torcida. link

Translated and summed: He believes in Massa and thinks the opportunity is there. He doesn't beleive in Ferrari favouring Raikkonen, Raikkonen isn't Schumacher. He wants to let the races and results do the speaking and also puts faith in Alonso and Raikkonen.




Rogério Elias: O que vou dizer é puro palpite, afinal não tenho dados privilegiados para analisar, mas acho que a McLaren está escondendo o jogo. Penso que Fernando Alonso poderá andar muito forte já no GP da Austrália, dia 18, prova que abre a F-1 2007.

Não estou dizendo que estão melhores que a Ferrari. Mas, acho que o abismo não é tão grande assim. Se existir. O mais interessante é que, neste caso, poderemos ver uma briga boa entre Alonso, Felipe Massa e Kimi Räikkönen. Isso é o melhor. Disputa.

A Renault também pode estar melhor do que quis parecer. Mas, ao longo do ano, deve perder terreno para as rivais. Estou curioso mesmo é para ver como o jovem Heikki Kövalainen vai andar.

Translated and summed: He is merely guessing, but he thinks McLaren has been sandbagging. He thinks the difference between Ferrrai and them is not that big. He beleives in a dispute between Alonso, Massa and Raikkonen. Renault might be good too, he's curious about Kovalainen. link

Originally posted by rapido
Who is Ross Stonefeld?

Catalyst of this BB.

I don't get how an unreliable McLaren has made Kimi a bad driver??? If the Ferrari is as quick and reliable as the McLaren I don't see how Kimi is not the favourite.

Originally posted by LePatron




I'm really surprised by Vasha's opinion relative to KR as I've always respected him for being rather knowledgable and objective. He along with Matchet and Hobbs voted Raikkonen driver of the year for '05. What changed since then other than having had to endure a season with the POS '06 McLaren.

Alonso becoming wdc for the 2nd consecutive year beating schumi fair and square and with the fia against him

Originally posted by MiPe
Catalyst of this BB.

Is that so? I've been reading this BB for a while and hadn't seen much besides an occasional snide one-liner from the poster using that nick. Is he really a motorsports journalist?

Picking Heidfeld as WDC seems a bit off-the-wall, if not downright ludicrous.

Nick Heidfeld will be world champion.

It's not April 1st yet is it?

It's a question of whether the driver makes the car/team more, than the car/team makes the driver. Most humans think it's the former - cars can't think (yet).

Of course this is with the exception, that after a driver has established himself convincingly enough, the losses will always be the car's/team's fault. But the wins are still always achieved by the driver.

Originally posted by Owen


It's not April 1st yet is it?

Why not Nick? who was Hakkinen until he got a fast car?

Originally posted by Hyatt

Why not Nick? who was Hakkinen until he got a fast car?

A guy who outqualified Senna in his first race for Mclaren and a guy that was chased by Frank Williams and employed by Ron Dennis.

Originally posted by Hyatt


Why not Nick? who was Hakkinen until he got a fast car?

If he was quicker than his team mate that might be a good start?

Originally posted by slapstick


A guy who outqualified Senna in his first race for Mclaren

fluke?

and a guy that was chased by Frank Williams and employed by Ron Dennis.

the same Frank that chased, and got, Nick?

Originally posted by Hyatt

fluke?

No, as already said many times, the qualifications between Senna and Hakkinen were 3-3. Hakkinen outqualified Senna once in every track they went against each other - Portugal, Japan and Australia.

Originally posted by Big Block 8


No, as already said many times, the qualifications between Senna and Hakkinen were 3-3. Hakkinen outqualified Senna once in every track they went against each other - Portugal, Japan and Australia.

You include the practice sessions?

Originally posted by Hyatt


Why not Nick? who was Hakkinen until he got a fast car?

Forget Hakkinen, you're comparing apples to sperm whales. Heidfeld is a journeyman who struggled last season to keep pace with a rookie teammate.

Originally posted by HBoss


You include the practice sessions?

The qualifying sessions, there was a total of six of them.

Originally posted by HBoss


You include the practice sessions?

Nope they ran two official qualifying sessions in 93.

Originally posted by slapstick
A guy who outqualified Senna in his first race for Mclaren and a guy that was chased by Frank Williams and employed by Ron Dennis.

Mika Hakkinen also was the guy who had troubles with the speed of teammate Johnny Herbert.

OTOH Nick Heidfeld was the guy who controlled both Raikkonen and Massa.

Originally posted by Alfisti
I don't get how an unreliable McLaren has made Kimi a bad driver??? If the Ferrari is as quick and reliable as the McLaren I don't see how Kimi is not the favourite.

If its only as quick and reliable as the Mac, why should he be favourite?

Sure, but they were still qualifying for one race only, which meant only one best time counted and the other session was in fact a practice session. Senna did start ahead of Hakkinen at Suzuka and Adelaide. So the score was 2x1 in Senna's favour.



Or do you also count the results in Q1 and Q2 last year in qualifications battles? Nops. Because the short sessions were not those which ultimately determined the grid.

Well here are their predictions for the drivers from before last season (with the sums of their votes)

1 Alonso 89
2 Raikkonen 74
3 M.Schumacher 65
4 Button 27
= Montoya 27
6 Barrichello 20
7 Fisichella 16
8 R.Schumacher 5
9 Webber 3
10 Trulli 2
= Rosberg 1
12 Coulthard 1

And last year's championship results (points)

1 Fernando Alonso 134
2 M.Schumacher 121
3 Felipe Massa 80
4 G.Fisichella 72
5 Kimi Räikkönen 65
6 Jenson Button 56
7 R.Barrichello 30
8 J.P.Montoya 26
9 Nick Heidfeld 23
10 Ralf Schumacher 20
11 Pedro de la Rosa 19
12 Jarno Trulli 15
13 David Coulthard 14
14 Mark Webber 7
15 J.Villeneuve 7
16 Robert Kubica 6
17 Nico Rosberg 4
18 Christian Klien 2
19 V.Liuzzi 1

Ditto the teams:

1 Renault 97
2 McLaren 85
3 Ferrari 61
4 Honda 55
5 Toyota 17
6 Williams 11
7 Red Bull Racing 3
8 BMW 1

And last year's constructors' championship:

1 Renault 206
2 Ferrari 201
3 McLaren/Mercedes 110
4 Honda 86
5 BMW Sauber/BMW 36
6 Toyota 35
7 Red Bull/Ferrari 16
8 Williams/Cosworth 11
9 Toro Rosso/Cosworth 1

So... they got Alonso, Renault and Honda right!

Originally posted by Big Block 8


No, as already said many times, the qualifications between Senna and Hakkinen were 3-3. Hakkinen outqualified Senna once in every track they went against each other - Portugal, Japan and Australia.

Spin it how much you want but at the end of the day he was only faster than Senna at one track out of those 3. Senna did a faster time in the others.
A good performance from Mika but nothing unbeleivable, as Berger sometimes outqualified Senna, even once at Suzuka.

Mika was anonomous without the best car. He never looked close to getting a win for the first 6 years of his career. Not even close.

Originally posted by Hyatt

the same Frank that chased, and got, Nick?

There's quite a difference between 1992 Frank and 2004 Frank.

Originally posted by HBoss
Sure, but they were still qualifying for one race only, which meant only one best time counted and the other session was in fact a practice session. Senna did start ahead of Hakkinen at Suzuka and Adelaide. So the score was 2x1 in Senna's favour.



Or do you also count the results in Q1 and Q2 last year in qualifications battles? Nops. Because the short sessions were not those which ultimately determined the grid.

The best time from either qualifying counted, so the 93 system isn't comparable with today's one. The point here is that Estoril result was hardly a fluke, as Hakkinen was well on Senna's pace elsewhere as well.

Originally posted by Big Block 8


The best time from either qualifying counted, so the 93 system isn't comparable with today's one. The point here is that Estoril result was hardly a fluke, as Hakkinen was well on Senna's pace elsewhere as well.

Nobody counts both sessions ever even back then only you do. Check any F1 statistics they only count the best overall lap. You are trying to make history with your fanboyism.

Mika and Senna only had 3 races together not long enough to say Mika was on his pace in qualifying. In the races he was nowhere, just capable of podiums in a race winning car, which he continued to do for 6 years until he got his hands on a rocketship.

Originally posted by Big Block 8


The best time from either qualifying counted, so the 93 system isn't comparable with today's one. The point here is that Estoril result was hardly a fluke, as Hakkinen was well on Senna's pace elsewhere as well.

I agree in Estpril not being a fluke, but not on a 3x3 score.

Enough off-topic for me now.



Anyelse got some journos' quotes? Let's see how much the experts actually know more than us.

Originally posted by Arrow


Spin it how much you want but at the end of the day he was only faster than Senna at one track out of those 3. Senna did a faster time in the others.
A good performance from Mika but nothing unbeleivable, as Berger sometimes outqualified Senna, even once at Suzuka.

Mika was anonomous without the best car. He never looked close to getting a win for the first 6 years of his career. Not even close.

Of course he was close, as he got a lot of podiums during those years. 1 or 2 problems more in front of him and a win would have been there. Any win in a car, that is overall 4th best or worse, is always a fluke win of some sort, regardless of the driver. How valuable such a "win" is, it's another story.

Originally posted by Hyatt


Why not Nick? who was Hakkinen until he got a fast car?

Exactly! People tend to think that a new season is the continuation of the prior one. Nick and Kubica (i wouldn't be too surprised if their roles were reversed) given a reliable car, can stun the likes of Ferrari and McLaren.

Kudos to Ross for having the guts (perhaps it is more than guts, foresight?) to buck the trend.

Originally posted by Arrow


Nobody counts both sessions ever even back then only you do. Check any F1 statistics they only count the best overall lap. You are trying to make history with your fanboyism.

Mika and Senna only had 3 races together not long enough to say Mika was on his pace in qualifying. In the races he was nowhere, just capable of podiums in a race winning car, which he continued to do for 6 years until he got his hands on a rocketship.

Chill down, this isn't a very serious issue. The point was that Estoril cannot be called a fluke, as Hakkinen showed good pace also on two different tracks - and that's hardly rewriting history.

However, the rest of your case could well be labelled as such.

Originally posted by miniman


Exactly! People tend to think that a new season is the continuation of the prior one. Nick and Kubica (i wouldn't be too surprised if their roles were reversed) given a reliable car, can stun the likes of Ferrari and McLaren.

Kudos to Ross for having the guts (perhaps it is more than guts, foresight?) to buck the trend.

You should bookmark this page. Then when Nick sprays champagne as the World Champion of 2007 you can bask in how clever you were...
Personally I'm not holding my breath.

Originally posted by giacomo
Mika Hakkinen also was the guy who had troubles with the speed of teammate Johnny Herbert.

Its tough being number two in a bottom end team, running a year old car and getting new components after your team mate. Lotus owner (Collins?) for some reason had chip on his shoulder trying to destroy Häkkinen's career, the Williams episode in 93 is difficult to understand otherwise.

Originally posted by slapstick


A guy who outqualified Senna in his first race for Mclaren and a guy that was chased by Frank Williams and employed by Ron Dennis.

Pedro also outqualified Kimi on his first Mclaren race by the way.