2013 final standings after Brazil:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) scheivlak 1656 38 2) AcuraF1 1620 45 3) Apex 1608 31 4) KWSN-DSM 1601 46 5) mark f1 1593 34 6) Makarias 1592 30 7) Anderis 1591 62 8) DutchQuicksilver 1589 37 9) noikeee 1587 38 10) Fisichella_2001 1581 32 11) Kalmake 1574 41 12) Estwald 1572 33 13) an1res 1570 42 = skylark68 1570 45 15) Wander 1566 30 16) Grayson 1553 30 17) wattoroos 1540 30 18) kismet 1539 61 19) Costaz 1536 59 20) Bleu 1534 45 21) Iscurrega 1531 44 22) Wlleiotl 1530 37 23) Fastcake 1510 41 24) August 1494 39 25) M2000-5 1488 46 26) Brawn BGP 001 1441 29 27) Barty 1432 42
Congratulations to scheivlak 
who grabs the 2013 PTPC championship with a comfortable margin.
Congrats also to runner-up AcuraF1
and third place finisher Apex completing the podium.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Rosb 160,1 111,8 27 Vett 157,6 141,3 27 Ricc 144,4 74,1 22 diRe 137,9 78,7 22 Hami 136,9 92,6 26 Gros 115,2 79,5 20 Webb 115,2 81,9 23 Alon 101,5 85,8 15 Räik 100,3 66,3 17 Verg 98,0 44,8 14 Hülk 85,5 60,0 8 Mass 83,1 53,1 6 Suti 78,5 45,3 8 Butt 40,0 29,3 0 Pere 40,0 24,3 0 Guti 21,6 13,6 0 Bott 10,7 6,3 0 Mald 2,0 1,1 0
Fernando Alonso makes it past his personal 100% expectation mark as the ninth and final driver of 2013, whereas Jean-Eric Vergne just misses out on it after finishing the season with a twelve race pointless streak.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2013 this is 27.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Vettel Webber Alonso Button Rosberg * Potential 397 Barty 242 skylark68 281 Costaz 248 * Potential 171 * Forecast 397 Anderis 225 Bleu 275 Fastcake 241 * Forecast 171 * Current 397 Costaz 200 August 262 Brawn BGP 001 222 * Current 171 Anderis 280 kismet 200 KWSN-DSM 260 Barty 209 scheivlak 152 Makarias 276 * Potential 199 Iscurrega 254 wattoroos 208 an1res 140 kismet 274 * Forecast 199 M2000-5 251 Iscurrega 201 AcuraF1 139 Bleu 272 * Current 199 an1res 250 Wlleiotl 200 KWSN-DSM 138 noikeee 272 Fastcake 198 Costaz 250 kismet 199 Kalmake 130 Apex 270 DutchQuicksilver181 kismet 250 August 197 Grayson 125 August 267 an1res 180 Kalmake 249 AcuraF1 195 DutchQuicksilver124 wattoroos 263 Apex 180 AcuraF1 245 Bleu 190 Makarias 118 Iscurrega 260 Estwald 180 Anderis 245 DutchQuicksilver190 Fastcake 117 scheivlak 260 mark f1 180 * Potential 242 Wander 185 Estwald 115 KWSN-DSM 259 Wlleiotl 180 * Forecast 242 Fisichella_2001 182 Fisichella_2001 112 Costaz 254 Fisichella_2001 175 * Current 242 Apex 180 Brawn BGP 001 111 Fisichella_2001 252 Bleu 173 Wlleiotl 240 Grayson 175 noikeee 105 Wander 251 Kalmake 173 DutchQuicksilver236 mark f1 170 Wander 105 mark f1 250 skylark68 169 noikeee 236 skylark68 170 skylark68 104 skylark68 250 AcuraF1 168 scheivlak 235 Makarias 164 Anderis 100 Wlleiotl 250 Wander 162 Estwald 230 scheivlak 164 Apex 100 DutchQuicksilver247 KWSN-DSM 160 mark f1 230 KWSN-DSM 157 mark f1 100 Fastcake 247 Iscurrega 158 Fisichella_2001 229 M2000-5 157 Wlleiotl 100 Barty 241 Makarias 158 Fastcake 227 noikeee 151 Iscurrega 94 Kalmake 239 wattoroos 158 Makarias 227 an1res 150 August 88 M2000-5 236 Grayson 155 wattoroos 223 Estwald 145 wattoroos 88 Estwald 235 noikeee 153 Wander 222 Kalmake 145 Bleu 79 AcuraF1 230 M2000-5 152 Apex 220 Anderis 127 M2000-5 78 Grayson 230 scheivlak 145 Grayson 210 * Potential 73 Barty 77 an1res 225 Brawn BGP 001 144 Brawn BGP 001 207 * Forecast 73 Costaz 77 Brawn BGP 001 211 August 116 Barty 192 * Current 73 kismet 67
Looking at the guesses for Vettel and Alonso one is inclined to believe we were a bit too optimistic about a close title fight this year... At least our Alonso guessing range was right in the ballpark, which can't be said for the other of these five drivers.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Perez Massa Hülkenberg Hamilton Ricciardo Brawn BGP 001 201 an1res 210 Bleu 84 scheivlak 203 M2000-5 26 August 170 M2000-5 199 Wlleiotl 80 * Potential 189 mark f1 25 Fastcake 161 Kalmake 192 wattoroos 78 * Forecast 189 Apex 24 Kalmake 154 kismet 175 Estwald 70 * Current 189 KWSN-DSM 24 Costaz 141 Anderis 170 KWSN-DSM 69 August 181 * Potential 20 Fisichella_2001 141 Estwald 155 Makarias 69 Grayson 165 * Forecast 20 Grayson 140 noikeee 150 Wander 67 Apex 160 an1res 20 wattoroos 133 skylark68 144 Brawn BGP 001 66 KWSN-DSM 159 * Current 20 Iscurrega 132 Bleu 140 AcuraF1 65 Makarias 158 Fisichella_2001 19 Makarias 129 Makarias 139 Apex 65 Fastcake 157 Kalmake 17 DutchQuicksilver128 DutchQuicksilver135 Grayson 65 DutchQuicksilver156 Brawn BGP 001 16 KWSN-DSM 125 Wander 134 skylark68 63 noikeee 152 August 15 Wander 122 wattoroos 133 scheivlak 62 mark f1 150 Grayson 15 Barty 121 Costaz 132 August 60 AcuraF1 145 kismet 15 Wlleiotl 120 Fisichella_2001 130 mark f1 60 Fisichella_2001 138 AcuraF1 14 skylark68 116 Iscurrega 130 M2000-5 57 wattoroos 138 Bleu 14 Anderis 114 mark f1 130 Fisichella_2001 56 Wander 136 noikeee 14 Apex 110 AcuraF1 121 Barty 55 Brawn BGP 001 133 Barty 12 mark f1 104 Apex 120 Fastcake 54 Bleu 129 scheivlak 12 Bleu 103 Grayson 120 * Potential 51 Iscurrega 128 DutchQuicksilver 11 kismet 101 KWSN-DSM 115 * Forecast 51 Estwald 124 Fastcake 11 Estwald 100 * Potential 112 * Current 51 Costaz 122 Anderis 10 noikeee 98 * Forecast 112 Anderis 50 skylark68 120 skylark68 10 an1res 90 * Current 112 Iscurrega 50 Wlleiotl 120 Wlleiotl 10 scheivlak 88 Brawn BGP 001 111 noikeee 50 kismet 118 Iscurrega 9 AcuraF1 84 scheivlak 110 DutchQuicksilver 49 Kalmake 115 Makarias 9 M2000-5 82 Wlleiotl 100 kismet 49 an1res 110 Wander 9 * Potential 49 August 91 Kalmake 45 Anderis 105 wattoroos 8 * Forecast 49 Fastcake 91 Costaz 43 Barty 105 Costaz 5 * Current 49 Barty 60 an1res 30 M2000-5 101 Estwald 0
While it's generally hopeless to get everything just about right you need to get *something* right; scheivlak's justifiably optimistic guesses on the Mercedes pairing were a key element to get the 2013 title.
The PTPC forecast after USA
Name Forecast +/- scheivlak 1658,9 22,4 AcuraF1 1604,7 2,8 Apex 1595,2 0,9 noikeee 1590,3 5,3 KWSN-DSM 1584,2 3,3 Makarias 1584,1 16,6 mark f1 1580,2 0,9 Anderis 1578,8 19,2 DutchQuicksilver 1577,5 2,0 Estwald 1569,7 14,8 Fisichella_2001 1568,1 2,1 an1res 1562,8 6,9 Wander 1562,6 0,1 Kalmake 1559,8 3,8 skylark68 1554,7 -0,8 Grayson 1540,1 2,1 wattoroos 1529,1 0,6 Iscurrega 1524,6 -9,6 Costaz 1522,0 -10,1 Wlleiotl 1518,8 6,1 Bleu 1518,7 -0,8 kismet 1516,4 4,9 Fastcake 1489,6 15,0 M2000-5 1481,3 -11,5 August 1478,1 6,6 Brawn BGP 001 1430,2 9,2 Barty 1424,1 -0,1
Things always get a bit warped all the way to the end, for example noikeee's position getting a bit worse than predicted when Grosjean's engine blew. The final scores almost universally improved on this forecast due to the decent results for the McLarens in Brazil.
The best guesses on each driver
X # ! Y Vett 397 280 Anderis Alon 242 240 Wlleiotl Webb 199 200 Costaz, kismet; 198 Fastcake Hami 189 181 August Räik 183 183 Bleu, Kalmake Rosb 171 152 scheivlak Gros 132 131 AcuraF1 Mass 112 111 Brawn BGP 001 Butt 73 127 Anderis Hülk 51 50 Anderis, Iscurrega, noikeee Pere 49 82 M2000-5 diRe 48 50 Estwald Suti 29 30 an1res Ricc 20 20 an1res Verg 13 14 DutchQuicksilver Guti 6 18 wattoroos Bott 4 7 Costaz Mald 1 30 Kalmake Bian 0 0 23 players Pic 0 0 22 players Kova 0 0 All 27 players vdGa 0 0 25 players Chil 0 0 24 players
Reality check on some of our predictions
Popularity Poll WCC prediction:
Team Pred Off RBR 425 +171 Ferr 373 - 19 McLa 304 -182 Lotu 297 + 18 Merc 245 +115 Will 88 - 83 Saub 88 - 31 FoIn 72 + 5 STR 27 + 6 Cate 0 +- 0 Maru 0 +- 0
Teammate battles: Which driver is expected to outscore his teammate?
Owner Owned Comment <- = -> Alon 27 0 0 Mass Correct Räik 27 0 0 Gros Correct Hülk 26 1 0 Guti Correct Butt 26 0 1 Pere Correct Vett 26 0 1 Webb Correct Hami 25 0 2 Rosb Correct Mald 20 4 3 Bott Wrong Suti 15 5 7 diRe Wrong Ricc 12 6 9 Verg Correct Pic 4 23 0 vdGa Correct Bian 3 23 1 Chil Correct
Our teammate battle predictions turned out pretty good this year, and with the scarcity of points for Williams the outcome of that one became a bit of a lottery as well.
Welcome back to PTPC 2014! Have a happy new year and lots of fun until the mayhem begins again!
