The standings after Singapore:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Makarias 1347 78 2) kismet 1332 78 3) AcuraF1 1316 77 4) fisichella_2001 1312 83 5) noikeee 1311 82 6) mark f1 1310 70 7) Brawn BGP 001 1309 80 8) d_view7 1301 53 9) DutchQuicksilver 1296 80 10) wattoroos 1292 84 11) Iranie 1285 72 12) Estwald 1283 60 13) aray 1282 73 = Bleu 1282 77 15) Kingshark 1281 79 16) Anderis 1280 68 17) Grayson 1279 82 18) Wander 1273 78 19) scheivlak 1269 79 20) skylark68 1268 78 21) Barty 1258 71 22) HeidfeldsBeard 1255 77 23) Fastcake 1243 59 24) LB 1240 70 25) Wlleiotl 1230 60 26) Apex 1213 62 = KWSN-DSM 1213 65 28) an1res 1187 61 29) Costaz 1183 74 30) M2000-5 1137 56
Top score this round a respectable 84 by wattoroos.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Ricc 217,4 133,1 30 Verg 132,3 46,3 23 Bott 106,4 71,3 20 Rosb 96,5 80,1 10 Hami 93,4 66,8 9 Hülk 85,5 58,5 9 Vett 83,7 60,5 7 Pere 73,5 44,6 7 Kvya 71,6 22,2 13 Alon 65,7 47,7 0 Mass 52,5 31,9 0 Butt 47,0 30,1 0 Bian 45,1 7,7 11 Magn 32,8 22,4 0 Räik 26,1 16,8 0 Gros 17,6 8,8 1
My prediction in the Italy thread for Rosberg to make his expectation mark this round fell short, but instead Vergne moved past the 100% mark as the third driver in 2014!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2014 this is 30.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Vettel Ricciardo Alonso Massa * Potential 366 * Potential 249 * Potential 306 M2000-5 278 M2000-5 203 M2000-5 360 fisichella_2001 204 * Forecast 246 * Potential 258 Wlleiotl 200 * Forecast 327 kismet 200 * Current 181 HeidfeldsBeard 256 * Potential 190 Apex 324 aray 194 kismet 135 aray 252 Estwald 180 LB 320 skylark68 189 aray 132 AcuraF1 235 KWSN-DSM 169 noikeee 298 AcuraF1 188 Makarias 131 an1res 225 noikeee 169 Brawn BGP 001 284 scheivlak 186 mark f1 125 d_view7 222 wattoroos 153 Bleu 280 Makarias 184 d_view7 124 fisichella_2001 217 DutchQuicksilver142 AcuraF1 275 DutchQuicksilver181 AcuraF1 111 LB 215 Iranie 140 fisichella_2001 275 Bleu 180 DutchQuicksilver102 Costaz 210 kismet 140 kismet 270 HeidfeldsBeard 172 HeidfeldsBeard 102 Fastcake 209 LB 140 Anderis 268 LB 170 Barty 92 Barty 204 AcuraF1 133 skylark68 268 d_view7 168 skylark68 89 Anderis 201 aray 130 Wander 265 * Forecast 168 Brawn BGP 001 88 DutchQuicksilver201 Makarias 126 scheivlak 258 mark f1 160 Bleu 87 Iranie 200 Fastcake 121 wattoroos 255 Kingshark 159 noikeee 87 kismet 200 an1res 120 Fastcake 252 Wander 150 Estwald 84 wattoroos 196 Anderis 119 Wlleiotl 250 Costaz 148 fisichella_2001 83 Wander 195 Costaz 119 DutchQuicksilver248 Grayson 145 wattoroos 82 Bleu 194 mark f1 115 Makarias 248 Iranie 145 Kingshark 81 Brawn BGP 001 194 scheivlak 113 Kingshark 247 Barty 138 Grayson 80 skylark68 192 Grayson 105 Grayson 245 noikeee 136 Iranie 80 Apex 190 skylark68 102 Estwald 242 wattoroos 133 Wander 78 KWSN-DSM 190 Brawn BGP 001 100 * Current 241 Brawn BGP 001 131 an1res 75 Grayson 184 fisichella_2001 100 HeidfeldsBeard 240 an1res 130 Anderis 67 scheivlak 184 Kingshark 94 Barty 239 * Current 124 Fastcake 66 Makarias 183 Apex 90 aray 238 Apex 110 Apex 60 * Forecast 181 * Forecast 88 KWSN-DSM 238 Estwald 106 Costaz 57 Kingshark 178 d_view7 85 Costaz 237 Anderis 104 LB 55 mark f1 175 Wander 82 Iranie 227 Fastcake 98 Wlleiotl 50 Wlleiotl 170 Bleu 80 mark f1 225 KWSN-DSM 80 scheivlak 49 Estwald 162 HeidfeldsBeard 76 d_view7 203 Wlleiotl 80 KWSN-DSM 40 noikeee 162 Barty 70 an1res 160 M2000-5 76 M2000-5 6 * Current 133 * Current 65
Hamilton is in the zone where the difference in guesses will be noticed in the scores...
Guesses on P6-P10:
Vergne Perez Räikkönen Hülkenberg Magnussen * Potential 144 * Potential 170 M2000-5 267 * Potential 197 Kingshark 173 mark f1 40 an1res 100 d_view7 258 skylark68 122 Wander 165 an1res 35 skylark68 91 AcuraF1 215 KWSN-DSM 110 * Potential 164 noikeee 27 KWSN-DSM 90 Barty 204 Makarias 110 KWSN-DSM 160 wattoroos 27 Costaz 87 Costaz 203 Costaz 109 Brawn BGP 001 154 Anderis 26 Wlleiotl 80 Iranie 200 Kingshark 102 Costaz 154 * Forecast 26 Makarias 77 Wander 192 an1res 100 Apex 150 Iranie 22 Iranie 75 Fastcake 188 * Forecast 98 scheivlak 149 KWSN-DSM 20 Grayson 70 DutchQuicksilver179 Estwald 98 Fastcake 147 * Current 19 Kingshark 70 HeidfeldsBeard 178 scheivlak 96 Estwald 146 fisichella_2001 16 mark f1 70 Kingshark 177 Anderis 94 Barty 135 aray 15 Anderis 68 wattoroos 177 Brawn BGP 001 92 HeidfeldsBeard 132 Grayson 15 Brawn BGP 001 66 an1res 175 fisichella_2001 92 Wlleiotl 120 Barty 14 DutchQuicksilver 66 Bleu 171 Grayson 92 noikeee 119 DutchQuicksilver 14 fisichella_2001 66 * Potential 170 aray 90 DutchQuicksilver118 AcuraF1 13 scheivlak 64 LB 165 HeidfeldsBeard 88 aray 115 Brawn BGP 001 13 d_view7 63 Anderis 164 d_view7 85 Makarias 114 Bleu 12 Estwald 61 KWSN-DSM 163 mark f1 85 Anderis 112 Kingshark 12 * Forecast 61 Apex 160 Fastcake 83 kismet 110 scheivlak 12 kismet 60 aray 160 Wander 82 LB 110 Fastcake 11 Wander 58 Grayson 155 Wlleiotl 80 Bleu 107 Apex 10 wattoroos 56 Makarias 153 Iranie 75 fisichella_2001 102 d_view7 10 Bleu 52 scheivlak 152 kismet 75 wattoroos 102 Wlleiotl 10 HeidfeldsBeard 50 mark f1 150 * Current 72 d_view7 101 LB 8 Apex 45 Wlleiotl 150 DutchQuicksilver 71 an1res 100 skylark68 8 * Current 45 fisichella_2001 148 Apex 70 Grayson 100 Estwald 7 AcuraF1 44 skylark68 148 wattoroos 68 skylark68 100 HeidfeldsBeard 7 Fastcake 44 kismet 145 M2000-5 67 Iranie 80 kismet 7 M2000-5 43 Estwald 135 noikeee 65 mark f1 75 Costaz 6 noikeee 43 noikeee 121 Bleu 63 AcuraF1 62 Makarias 6 aray 30 Brawn BGP 001 111 AcuraF1 61 M2000-5 55 Wander 5 LB 25 * Forecast 61 LB 60 * Forecast 53 M2000-5 3 Barty 24 * Current 45 Barty 42 * Current 39
Nico Hülkenberg's 100% surprise campaign has taken a serious hit recently and is looking quite unlikely already.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Makarias 1596,4 14,5 noikeee 1571,4 6,9 fisichella_2001 1563,2 18,1 kismet 1555,6 18,0 skylark68 1537,4 14,5 AcuraF1 1530,9 22,5 Brawn BGP 001 1527,2 4,9 scheivlak 1519,2 18,1 mark f1 1516,2 15,8 Anderis 1515,7 14,4 d_view7 1515,1 15,6 Bleu 1513,9 6,2 LB 1503,7 20,2 Kingshark 1502,3 2,8 DutchQuicksilver 1493,4 18,9 Iranie 1478,9 10,6 aray 1475,6 15,0 wattoroos 1473,6 10,3 Grayson 1472,9 4,7 Wander 1469,1 -3,5 HeidfeldsBeard 1467,4 7,2 Estwald 1464,5 1,7 Wlleiotl 1460,1 -2,5 Barty 1460,1 -6,2 Apex 1458,0 9,8 KWSN-DSM 1431,4 2,4 M2000-5 1407,5 14,4 Fastcake 1405,1 0,8 Costaz 1378,1 1,1 an1res 1374,4 17,4
Improved forecasts for Vettel and Massa move the predictions up on average.