2020 Silly Season Trophy

For the fourth November in a row, we have a silly season trophy. It's a slow, but fun game. We will have to wait for results for roughly 17 months, and the winner of the last year's edition is still to be determined (but there are a few frontrunners). To win, you have to predict the 2020 lineup correctly – and that involves predicting driver moves and retirements, new arrivals, and stable choices.
 
While some of the 2020 seats have already been decided, the vast majority is up for grabs. Do you possess 20/20 foresight (apologies for the terrible joke)? You won't find out unless you participate!
 
Previous winners:
2003: Brian O Flaherty
2004: Flying Panda
2005: lukywill, Viceroy, Makarias
2017: ANF
2018: Marklar

Participation:
To participate, post a reply in this topic with the drivers you think will be on the grid in the first Formula One Grand Prix of 2020. Be sure to follow the rules and please make sure there is no confusion as to which driver you mean.

Rules and point scoring:
The game will continue with the same scoring system as last year: unpopular picks are rewarded more if they turn out to be true. Early indications are that this is a good method for breaking ties.

• 2 drivers per team. In case more drivers are provided, player only scores points for the first two listed.
• 1 team per driver. In case a driver is placed into multiple teams, player only scores points for the first one mentioned.
• 5 points for correctly guessing driver/team. You can earn up to 2 bonus points for each successful pick depending on how many people guessed that particular driver/team combination. This is calculated as 2*(1–(a/b)), where a is the amount of guesses with that driver/team combination among other participants and b is the amount of your opponents (i.e. total guesses minus one).
• 2 points for correctly guessing driver (wrong team). You can earn up to 1 bonus point for each successful pick depending on how many people guessed that driver would participate. This is calculated as 1–(a/b), where a is the amount of guesses with that driver/team combination among other participants and b is the amount of your opponents (i.e. total guesses minus one).
• On top of the regular bonus points, you get double points if the driver you guessed was mentioned by nobody else.
• 0 points if driver doesn't compete. An exception is if the driver was supposed to participate but did not due to a temporary injury or temporary ban (e.g. in 2017 you would get 5 points for guessing either Ericsson, Giovinazzi or Wehrlein in the Sauber and 2 points for guessing them in any other team, but no points for guessing van der Garde in any team in 2015).
• If you list less than 13 teams and there are less than 13 teams on the grid in 2020, you score points for the teams you left out (5 points per team).
• You can list an unknown driver (no given name) in a team. You will then score 5 points if a driver that was not mentioned by any other entry drives in the team you put him/her in. You will score no points if an unknown driver drives in a different team.
• In the event of a tie, the player putting the most drivers in the correct teams is given preference. If there is still a tie, the player who submitted his guess first is given preference (in case a post is edited, I will look at the time it was last edited, not the original submission time).
• In case of an event unspecified by rules, SpaceHorseParty makes the final decision.

Deadline:
December 1, 2018, 00:00 (UTC)

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 02 November 2018 - 18:29.

Mercedes	Lewis Hamilton		Esteban Ocon
Ferrari		Sebastian Vettel	Charles Leclerc		
Red Bull	Max Verstappen		Pierre Gasly
Renault		Daniel Ricciardo	Nico Hülkenberg
Haas		Kevin Magnussen		Valtteri Bottas
McLaren		Carlos Sainz		Lando Norris
Force India	Lance Stroll		Sergio Pérez
Sauber		Kimi Räikkönen		Antonio Giovinazzi
Toro Rosso	Alexander Albon		Dan Ticktum
Williams	George Russell		Mick Schumacher		

Mercedes	Lewis Hamilton		Esteban Ocon
Ferrari		Sebastian Vettel	Charles Leclerc
Red Bull	Max Verstappen		Pierre Gasly
Renault		Daniel Ricciardo	Nico Hulkenberg
Haas		Valtteri Bottas		Kevin Magnussen
McLaren		Carlos Sainz		Lando Norris
Racing Point	Sergio Perez		Lance Stroll
Sauber		Kimi Raikkonen		Antonio Giovinazzi
Toro Rosso	Alexander Albon	        Daniel Ticktum
Williams	Daniil Kvyat		George Russell

Edited by DutchQuicksilver, 29 November 2018 - 19:35.

Mercedes	Lewis Hamilton		Esteban Ocon
Ferrari		Sebastian Vettel	Charles Leclerc		
Red Bull	Max Verstappen		Pierre Gasly
Renault		Daniel Ricciardo	Nico Hülkenberg
Haas		Kevin Magnussen		Mick Schumacher
McLaren		Carlos Sainz		Lando Norris
Force India	Lance Stroll		Sergio Pérez
Sauber		Kimi Räikkönen		Antonio Giovinazzi
Toro Rosso	Alexander Albon		Juri Vips
Williams	George Russell		Robert Kubica

Edited by KWSN - DSM, 22 November 2018 - 12:57.

Mercedes    Lewis Hamilton        Valtteri Bottas
Ferrari        Sebastian Vettel    Charles Leclerc
Red Bull    Max Verstappen        Pierre Gasly
Renault        Daniel Ricciardo    Nico Hulkenberg
Haas        Sergio Perez        Kevin Magnussen
McLaren        Carlos Sainz        Lando Norris
Racing Point    Esteban Ocon        Lance Stroll
Sauber        Kimi Raikkonen        Antonio Giovinazzi
Toro Rosso    Daniil Kvyat        Daniel Ticktum
Williams    Nick de Vryes        George Russell

Mercedes      Lewis Hamilton       Valtteri Bottas
Ferrari       Sebastian Vettel     Charles Leclerc
Red Bull      Max Verstappen       Pierre Gasly
Renault       Daniel Ricciardo     Nico Hulkenberg
Haas          Kevin Magnussen      Antonio Giovinazzi
Racing Point  Sergio Perez         Lance Stroll
McLaren       Carlos Sainz         Lando Norris
Toro Rosso    Alex Albon           Dan Ticktum
Sauber        Kimi Raikkonen       Mick Schumacher
Williams      George Russell       Esteban Ocon

Edited by sladealonso, 26 November 2018 - 11:44.

Now that the season is over, don't forget to post your predictions! Do it by the end of Friday (UTC).

Mercedes Hamilton Ocon

Ferrari Vettel LeClerc

Red Bull Verstappen Gasly

Force India Stroll Bottas

Renault Ricciardo Hulkenburg

Torro Rosso Ticktum Albon

McLaren Sainz Norris

Williams Russell Kubica

Sauber Raikkonen Giovinazzi

Haas Grosjean Magnussen

Mercedes	Lewis Hamilton		Esteban Ocon
Ferrari		Sebastian Vettel	Charles Leclerc		
Red Bull	Max Verstappen		Pierre Gasly
Renault		Daniel Ricciardo	Nico Hülkenberg
Haas		Kevin Magnussen		Shwartzman
McLaren		Carlos Sainz		Lando Norris
Force India	Lance Stroll		Sergio Perez
Sauber		Kimi Räikkönen		Mick Schumacher
Toro Rosso	Alexander Albon		Dan Ticktum
Williams	George Russell		Bottas

Mercedes Lewis Hamilton, Valtteri Bottas
Ferrari  Sebastian Vettel, Charles Leclerc
Red Bull  Max Verstappen, Pierre Gasly
Renault  Daniel Ricciardo, Nico Hulkenberg
Haas  Sergio Perez, Romain Grosjean
McLaren  Carlos Sainz, Lando Norris
Racing Point Force India  Esteban Ocon, Lance Stroll
Sauber  Kimi Raikkonen, Antonio Giovinazzi
Toro Rosso  Alexander Albon, Mick Schumacher
Williams  George Russell, Robert Kubica

Mercedes      Lewis Hamilton    George Russell
Ferrari       Charles Leclerc   Sebastian Vettel
Red Bull      Max  Verstappen   Robert Kubica
Renault       Daniel Ricciardo  Nico Hülkenberg
Haas          Valtteri Bottas   Kevin Magnussen
McLaren       Carlos Sainz      Lando Norris
Racing Point  Sergio Perez      Lance Stroll
Sauber        Kimi Räikkönen    Antonio Giovinazzi
Toro Rosso    Pierre Gasly      Mick Schumacher
Williams      Esteban Ocon      Artem Markelov

Mercedes          Lewis Hamilton             George Russell
Ferrari               Sebastian Vettel           Charles Leclerc
Red Bull           Max Verstappen           Pierre Gasly
Renault            Daniel Ricciardo           Valtteri Bottas
Haas                Kevin Magnussen        Antonio Giovanizzi
McLaren          Carlos Sainz                Lando Norris
RPFI                Lance Stroll                 Sergio Perez
Sauber            Kimi Räikkonen            Mick Schumacher
Toro Rosso      Daniel Ticktum            Alexander Albon
Williams           Esteban Ocon             Nico Hulkenberg

Edited by scheivlak, 29 November 2018 - 22:17.

This is the last day for submitting or editing your predictions!

Mercedes          Lewis Hamilton             Valteri Bottas
Ferrari           Sebastian Vettel           Charles Leclerc
Red Bull           Max Verstappen            Pierre Gasly
Renault            Daniel Ricciardo           unknown
Haas                unknown Antonio Giovanizzi
McLaren          Carlos Sainz                Lando Norris
Force India      Lance Stroll                 Sergio Perez
Sauber            unknown               unknown
Toro Rosso      unknown               unknown              
Williams           Esteban Ocon             unknown

Mercedes – Lewis Hamilton and Valtteri Bottas
Ferrari – Sebastian Vettel and Charles Leclerc
Red Bull - Max Verstappen and Pierre Gasly
Renault – Daniel Ricciardo and Nico Hulkenberg
Haas – Kevin Magnussen and Antonio Giovinazzi
McLaren – Carlos Sainz and Fernando Alonso
Force India – Sergio Perez and Lance Stroll
Toro Rosso – Dan Ticktum and Alexander Albon
Sauber – Kimi Raikkonen and Mick Schumacher
Williams – Esteban Ocon and George Russell

Edited by M2000-5, 30 November 2018 - 19:52.

Mercedes - Hamilton, Bottas

Ferrari - Vettel, Leclerc

Red Bull - Verstappen, Gasly

McLaren - Norris, Sainz

Renault - Riccardo, Hulkenberg

Racing Point - Stroll, Russell

Williams - Ocon, unknown driver

Sauber - Raikkonen, unknown driver

Haas - Magnussen, Perez

Toro Rosso - Albon, Dan Ticktum

Thank you all for your submissions! The deadline has passed, no new submissions will be accepted, nor can you edit your submissions now.

I will post a summary today or tomorrow.

Apologies for the slight delay. I've managed to summarize the submissions.
 
For probably the first time ever, next year's grid has been finalized before the end of the submission period for the Silly Season Trophy. Although most of the time the last few announcements don't directly influence the 2020 grid, we will have to see if this becomes the new normal – and if it does, perhaps the submission period will have to be moved back slightly.

But let's look at some statistics:

Drivers

16: Gasly, Leclerc, Hamilton, Ocon, Ricciardo, Sainz, Stroll, Verstappen
15: Hülkenberg, Norris, Pérez, Räikkönen, Russell, Vettel
14: Bottas, Magnussen
13: Giovinazzi
11: Albon, Ticktum
9: unknown driver
8: Schumacher
7: Kubica
4: Kvyat
3: Grosjean
1: Alonso, de Vries, Markelov, Matsushita, Vips, Shwartzman

Despite less submissions, we only have eight drivers who are universally expected to be on the grid in 2019. Last year there were nine. Interestingly, despite being on the sidelines in 2019, Ocon is among the eight drivers who everyone expects to see in 2020.

Six more drivers were only left out by one player. Bottas and Magnussen were left out by two, and Giovinazzi was left out by three.
 
The least likely 2019 drivers to line up the 2020 grid (according to the players of this game) are Grosjean (3 picks), Kvyat (4 picks), and Kubica (7 picks). They are mostly expected to stay put – nobody expects Grosjean to leave Haas, but we do have DutchQuicksilver placing Kvyat at Williams, noikeee placing Kubica at Racing Point, and Makarias placing Kubica at Red Bull.
 
Of the drivers who are leaving after 2018, we have Ocon (as already mentioned – picked by everyone). The likeliest destinations for him are, predictably, Mercedes (7 picks) and Williams (6 picks). M2000-5 thinks Alonso might return to McLaren at the expense of Norris. Ericsson, Hartley, Sirotkin, and Vandoorne are not expected to return.

The likeliest rookie is Dan Ticktum (11 picks) – obviously, a popular pick for Toro Rosso. Mick Schumacher (8 picks) is the only other popular rookie pick, but his destination is less clear with Haas, Sauber, Toro Rosso, and Williams in the mix.
 
We have six unique picks this year: Fernando Alonso (by M2000-5), Nyck de Vries (by rodlamas), Artem Markelov (by Makarias), Nobuharu Matsushita (by sladealonso), Robert Shwartzman (by thegforcemaybewithyou) and Jüri Vips (by KWSN - DSM). Should any of them appear on the 2020 grid, even in other teams, they will bring a lot of valuable points – they would bring 6 points for driving in a different team, which is more than a popular driver/team combo, like Giovinazzi at Sauber, would bring.
 
A total of nine unknown picks were made: four for Sauber, three for Williams, two for Toro Rosso and one each for Haas and Renault. Costaz was, once again, the most active user of this option, as he used seven such picks – and he used this option for both seats at Toro Rosso and Williams.
 
Teams

Mercedes: Hamilton (16), Bottas, Ocon (7), Russell (2)
Ferrari: Leclerc (16), Vettel (15), Ricciardo (1)
Red Bull: Verstappen (16), Gasly (15), Kubica (1)
Renault: Ricciardo (15), Hülkenberg (14), Bottas, Ocon, unknown driver (1)
Haas: Magnussen (14), Bottas, Giovinazzi, Pérez (4), Grosjean (3), Schumacher, Shwartzman, unknown driver (1)
McLaren: Sainz (16), Norris (15), Alonso (1)
Racing Point: Stroll (16), Pérez (10), Ocon, Russell (2), Bottas, Kubica (1)
Sauber: Räikkönen (15), Giovinazzi (9), Schumacher, unknown driver* (4)
Toro Rosso: Albon, Ticktum (11), Kvyat (3), Schumacher, unknown driver* (2), Gasly, Matsushita, Vips (1)
Williams: Russell (11), Ocon (6), Kubica (5), unknown driver (3), Bottas, de Vries, Hülkenberg, Kvyat, Markelov, Pérez, Schumacher (1)

*one player picked two unknown drivers for that team; both are counted

There are five things the players universally agreed on: Lewis Hamilton will stay at Mercedes, Charles Leclerc will stay at Ferrari, Carlos Sainz will stay at McLaren, Lance Stroll will stay at Racing Point, and Max Verstappen will stay at Red Bull. All of the players who expect Lando Norris to continue racing in 2020, expect him to stay at McLaren – the same goes for Kevin Magnussen and Haas, Kimi Räikkönen and Sauber, and Sebastian Vettel and Ferrari (and a few of the unpopular picks as well, of course).
 
Esteban Ocon to Mercedes (picked by 7) is the most popular move. Ocon to Williams (predicted by 5), Bottas to Haas (predicted by 4), Giovinazzi to Haas (predicted by 4), Pérez to Haas (predicted by 4), and Schumacher to Williams (predicted by 4) are the next most popular moves.
 
All players predict the current ten teams to line up the 2020 grid, with no new teams appearing.
 
Average pick

Mercedes	Lewis Hamilton		Esteban Ocon
Ferrari		Charles Leclerc		Sebastian Vettel	
Red Bull	Max Verstappen		Pierre Gasly
Racing Point	Lance Stroll		Sergio Pérez
Williams	George Russell		Robert Kubica
Renault		Daniel Ricciardo	Nico Hülkenberg
Toro Rosso	Alexander Albon		Dan Ticktum
Haas		Kevin Magnussen		Valtteri Bottas
McLaren		Carlos Sainz		Lando Norris
Sauber		Kimi Räikkönen		Antonio Giovinazzi

This time making the average pick was relatively easy, with clear favorites for each of the seats. The only alternate option I considered was placing Bottas at Mercedes (as he had the same amount of picks) and Ocon at Williams – but then there wouldn't have been a good choice for the second Haas seat, with Grosjean (3 picks) the likeliest candidate.
 
I calculated the results if the average pick comes true:

Place	Name			Points	Exact	Subm
	AVERAGE PICK		124.20	20	
1	SpaceHorseParty		117.73	19	1
2	DutchQuicksilver	117.73	19	12
3	thequadge		113.93	18	6
4	KWSN - DSM		111.93	18	4
5	sladealonso		111.93	18	5
6	noikeee			110.93	17	10
7	thegforcemaybewithyou	107.33	17	8
8	Marklar			105.33	16	3
9	f1paul			100.87	15	9
10	M2000-5			100.20	15	15
11	rodlamas		 99.67	15	2
12	scheivlak		 98.53	14	13
13	Makarias		 98.07	14	11
14	Grayson			 95.80	14	16
15	TurnOffTheLights	 88.33	12	7
16	Costaz			 72.67	10	14

There are a few ties here – including for first place, between me and DutchQuicksilver. Although the average pick for 2019 was very good, don't pay too much attention to it – for example, Costaz, who was dead last in the previous season as well, managed to get third place due to some well-calculated risks.

The first interim results will be published in the next few days. I will try to avoid any Sirotkin-esque vague "multi-year" deals and only include deals which are explicit in terms of their length and conditions. If you have any feedback regarding the interim results (or, indeed, any aspect of this game), I would love to hear it! I'm sure there's a better way to display the impact of the potential deals, but I don't have any good ideas at this point.

So, see you in (probably) 11 months for the 2021 Silly Season Trophy, in roughly 16 months for the final results of this one, and in a little over 100 days for the (final) results of the previous one.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 04 December 2018 - 21:35.