When will Mercedes NOT win F1 championship?

Okay, now a bit of a prediction challenge for everyone. Make your guesses.

Since 2014 it has been the same outcome each year. Mercedes AMG F1 - WDC, WCC. 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, and counting ...

At times (past 2 years) they got challenged by Ferrari, but the end result is still the same - Merc winning.

What will it take to take them down?

New regulations? 2021? Are you sure? Allegedly PU's are going to be roughly similar. So what gives?

Mercedes-Benz HQ deciding that it's enough and decide to pull out? When could that happen? 2025?

The day, when Hamilton is not driving for Mercedes any more and driver line-up of another team outdrives Mercedes drivers to win the championship? Sort of the opposite of 2018.

Any other possibilites? Thoughts?

I think a few things could spice things up:

1) Hamilton leaving the sport.

2) Max and Lewis at Mercedes in 2021.

3) Merc 4 car team with Max, Lewis, Alonso, and Vettel.

Edited by ARTGP, 15 May 2019 - 20:16.

It feels like we've been stuck for seasons and seasons on a loop of "Mercedes getting beat is bound to happen soon" and then they come back and pull ahead of the rest again - they seemed to gain pace over everyone else on the last race again!

2021 is the best guess due to the reg changes, but you wouldn't completely bet against them neither. Remember there was a pretty major regs change in 2017 too (much quicker cars with more downforce, different dimensions) and although Ferrari caught up and got much closer that year, Mercedes still remained clearly on top.

Whenever Hamilton leaves, that's gonna be a big blow too, but when they're as dominant as they've been in 2014-2016 and seemingly back again this year, a Bottas level driver will easily win it anyway.

It's a bit depressing really, great job by them but any sport needs competition to be interesting. When only 2 competitors have any chance to fight for the win unless something strange happens it's way too predictable.

Needs a poll   

I think they will win 2020 as well. The advantage they gained should at very least guarantee that they are very strong next year as well.

The 2021 rule changes - I think - will most likely help the midfield to catch up a little, but I'm not sure if it will really shake up the top of the field. There is every chance that Mercedes will master those rule changes better (like they did in 2014 and 2019 and to an extent in 2017). In that regard it's 50/50. However it is possible, and it's also possible that they just pull out after 2020.

I also kinda suspect that there will be a huge crisis if Mercedes still dominates in 2021, potentially forcing the FIA to more drastic immediate changes. Though it's also possible that we get a 2017/18 style season where Mercedes is not dominating and even starts on the backfoot, but still win. Something like this is probably not going to push the FIA to immediate changes I suspect, but then again maybe it's different after so many years.

I dont expect Hamilton's departure to be a massive issue if they get Verstappen on board, he may be initially a little downgrade due to lack of title experiece, but he would be overall a equal replacement. It could be only a problem if they decide to go with a driver pairing like Bottas/Ocon (good but not special drivers), that could indeed cause a reverse 2018.

I go with 2021, but I wouldnt bet on it.

2021 if FIA has the guts to go through with whole new regs, or once Hamilton stops racing for them.

A ludicrous thread lol!

Well....How about ...When will the other teams get the measure of Mercedes?...Much the same way Ferrari started dominating with their dream team at the turn of the century after years of McLaren and Williams domination that is how.

Edited by Fatgadget, 15 May 2019 - 20:50.

Until Mercedes has enough of F1 i guess, seeing that Mazepin can even get the Mercedes on top today @ testing shows that the car is just utterly dominant and no team will come close for a while. Put Stroll and Lavaggi in those cars and they will fight for the WDC.

Edited by Arundo, 15 May 2019 - 20:56.

I would have said 2021 but now I'm beginning to think even that won't be enough to stop them, so I'll take a wild stab in the dark and say 2023

Have they ever been in F1 without at the end dominating? The germans are good at this, no doubt at that.

And no, it's not about a single person or part it's the whole package beginning with that omnious engine.

The bitterness in this thread   

Mercedes will not win when another car+driver+team combo will make a better job.

Changing the rules every 2 years will not help. 

Mercedes aced the new engine rules, and did well enough with the chassis and aero that they've had plenty of cushion for whatever attempts at improvement Ferrari and others have made.  With the early limitations on design updates locking their advantage in place, the others have just been too far away to really make an impression.  I am convinced Merc has enough of a engine power advantage that they've got a reserve that will keep the others behind for as long as this hybrid engine configuration exists.

So well done them.  The sharp knife of Mercedes has killed F1.  At least F2 offers some parity that allows drivers to show their mettle.

The bitterness in this thread   

More like a desperation.

Answering the question - when aliens invade.

The bitterness in this thread   

Mercedes will not win when another car+driver+team combo will make a better job.

Changing the rules every 2 years will not help. 

Thats the main thing, said it before everytime the field starts to bunch up a bit the ****ing idiots @ FIA change the rules again to give teams the opportunity to be dominant. 

if they stop competing.

Easy - when there is an equal distribution of funds and a budget cap.

Easy - when there is an equal distribution of funds and a budget cap.

Edited by TomNokoe, 16 May 2019 - 07:53.

I am not sure if financial advantage is only reason of dominance. Toto is a genius manager, he would find an advantage even with budget cap.

No, it's definitely not their only advantage, they have state of the art facilities (which they still would have) and excellent staff (of which they would still have the pick of the best up to the budget cap) but without a budget cap the potential opposition pool is pretty thin. 

I think there's a relatively under appreciated link between Ferrari's 2000s dominance and Merc's and that is Ross Brawn. 

Instrumental in Ferrari's dominance, would have made Honda the dominant force for 2009-2013 had they not pulled out at the end of 2008 and then put in place everything Merc needed to start their run before Toto took over right at the start of the V6H era. Merc owe a hell of a lot to Brawn. 

Now that Brawn is supposed to be guiding the technical direction of the sport I suppose he should know how to avoid one team being able to dominate - which to be fair I am only assuming is in his job description. But then I get the sense that he actually has little control because the big teams vote down anything that slashes their advantages. Which seems tone why we are in this mess. 

So - when will Merc not win? When they dictate the technical direction and say 'to hell with your objections!' to the leading teams. 

_{Edit: I'm not bashing Toto to any extent, just before anyone bites me}

Edited by Ben1445, 16 May 2019 - 08:02.

When Ferrari and Red Bull finally stop underperforming.

They are unbeatable. The only comparison you can make is early 2000s Ferrari.

Aero? Engine? Mechanical grip? Fuel efficiency? Drivers? Tyres? Strategy? Politics? Money?

The only team on the grid with the resource and money to beat them is Ferrari, who are a country mile behind. Red Bull? Yeah right.

They have it all. No weaknesses.

They will pull out of F1 before they lose.

That's the real problem for the rest of the teams: Mercedes are excellent at every single element which counts for competitiveness. Not one single weak spot.

Forget the championship. Right now I'm wondering when they won't get a 1-2.

whenever Ferrari or Red Bull turn up to a season with a better car than them over the entire season.

That's the real problem for the rest of the teams: Mercedes are excellent at every single element which counts for competitiveness. Not one single weak spot.

Edited by TomNokoe, 16 May 2019 - 08:37.

People complained about Vettel's "domination", but Red Bull were garbage in a straight line, had questionable reliability, and were always at the FIA's mercy with rule-changes. Yes, they still had weekends where all they had to do was turn up and win, but they were few and far between.

The only problem Merc has had since 2013 is tyres, and last year they got a special tyre and a questionable wheel that fixed it and now that's the only tyre F1 uses and their wheels are judged legal, imagine if that happened during the Red Bull years, this forum would have exploded 

Edited by AnR, 16 May 2019 - 08:50.

Mercedes F1, Brackley and Brixworth has over 1,000 employees. They have shown every year since 2014 they can out develop any other team.

For those hopeful of a change in 2021 after the rules changes, I'd say Merc is more capable than any other team to adapt to the new changes.

For those hopeful when Hamilton retires, I'd bet Merc will get Verstappen to replace him.

Honestly, unless we get some 2007 type season or Merc pull the plug on F1 it's difficult to see past utter Merc domination for years to come.

When Hamilton moves to Ferrari

Edited by Astandahl, 16 May 2019 - 09:19.

People complained about Vettel's "domination", but Red Bull were garbage in a straight line, had questionable reliability, and were always at the FIA's mercy with rule-changes. Yes, they still had weekends where all they had to do was turn up and win, but they were few and far between.

Well yes but the thing with Vettel/RB is that there were periods where we never had a championship battle at all (2011 and the 2nd half of 2013), whereas with Mercedes we've always either had the 2 Merc team-mates close, or Ferrari close. That is really the only thing that has kept this era vaguely interesting, that and the fact it's a pretty talented grid and altho Hamilton is probably the best driver there's been a few guys close to him (unlike say early 2000s Ferrari when Schumacher was all-conquering).

I've installed a remote camera in hell. I'll let you know when it freezes over. 

I  think the engine advantage is no longer valid as Ferrari allegedly have the better engine now, we all forget that after 2014 rules there have been further changes, 2017 featured the wider tyres, changes to rear and front wings, barge board areas etc, supposed to be as big a change as in 2009, Mercedes still managed to ace those rules, you also  have this current year 2019 with the new front wing dimensions (although not as big a change as in 2017)  and they seem to have gotten it right. I don't think its an engine thing, I think over the years the team has refined it's process and and ensured they got the best out of any package they put together, it's  not 1 thing, it's everything , they refine and simulate and chase every single advantage they can get from a slot on a flap that sits on winglet that is attached to a wing (yes they are that detailed) , I remember last year when they delayed introducing engine number 2 by a race or 2 because the dimension or height was  not aligned with the specification  something so minuscule like like it was less than the thickness of human hair (that's unbelievable) 

They also just get on with it, when they were having issues with tyres in 2017 and early 2018, they knuckled down and tried everything till they found a solution, when they had a deficit to Redbull and Ferrari in slow speed corners, they investigated and found a solution and Hamilton got that pole in Singapore. 

I am willing to bet that the engine they introduce later this year will address the straight-line speed deficit to Ferrari, you can just sense it's coming, Mercedes never gets deterred by their opponents bringing upgrades early, they just follow their plan, they believe in their process and its a damn good process. 

They just do everything so well, I know a lot of people talk about Ferrari having the resource to do the same but I actually think Redbull is the team that comes close and if they could match Mercedes in the engine department could really give them a run for their money, Redbull also have a  well defined process for their upgrades and in season development and they can take the fight to Mercedes, 

Some say the budget cap or 2021 rules might provide an opportunity for other teams to challenge, it's possible but I think Mercedes will still be up there, their silver bullet is the process they have adopted, it doesn't matter if its a budget cap or new rules, they will find a way. 

1 option that is less considered that could give maybe an opportunity is more engine manufacturers coming in, for them to do this then maybe the engine rules have to be dumbed down a little to encourage them, last I heard Ferrari was the one totally against this and were threatening to withdraw, So in a way some of the teams complaining about the Merc dominance are indirectly cementing their advantage for their own selfish reasons. 

If it is to make the sport more of a spectacle and to make it more interesting then, maybe the 3 car team should be considered for some of the top teams who can afford it, a situation where only the top 2 scoring drivers points are counted towards the WCC but the 3rd scoring drivers points still counts towards the WDC, the problem with this is this opens up another can of worms when talking about budget cap as the teams with 3 cars will want a budget increase for parts and personnel and travel. 

Just imagine

Vettel /Leclerc / Max (Ferrari)

Lewis /Danny Ric / Alonso (Mercedes)

The in team battle alone is worth it, talk less of inter-team battles. 

Funny how many believe that Mercs engine advantage is gone because Ferrari is faster in a straight line like that proves anything? 

Funny how many believe that Mercs engine advantage is gone because Ferrari is faster in a straight line like that proves anything? 

Proves they are faster in a straightline   

Proves they are faster in a straightline   

What does that prove about the engine then?

What does that prove about the engine then?

You are asking about  2 cars placed at the start/ finish line and to race down a pit straight and 1 of them finishes .4secs ahead on an average F1 straight and you want me to tell you what advantage it proves that power unit has over the other

Take a guess, any guess , a wild guess,  an educated one, an uneducated one, I am pretty sure you will come to the same conclusion 

You are asking about  2 cars placed at the start/ finish line and to race down a pit straight and 1 of them finishes .4secs ahead on an average F1 straight and you want me to tell you what advantage it proves that power unit has over the other

 

Take a guess, any guess , a wild guess,  an educated one, an uneducated one, I am pretty sure you will come to the same conclusion 

Well it for sure doesn't prove that it's the best engine 

Funny how many believe that Mercs engine advantage is gone because Ferrari is faster in a straight line like that proves anything? 

Asked about the comparison with Honda's main rivals, Verstappen said the engine gap to Mercedes had closed but that Ferrari was comfortably ahead.

"Compared to Mercedes, yes [Honda has closed the gap]," he replied, "but compared to Ferrari it's big, but that's for everyone. It's really big.

"It just seems they did a really good job with something, so you just have to work harder to try to close that gap.

"I think we are closer to Mercedes, but it's always difficult to really say if it's better, because everybody is always improving.

"They’ve done a great job," said Horner, speaking to Sky F1 after FP2.

"They’re ballistically fast on the straights and they’re obviously carrying a lot of wing as well so it’s down to us to try and catch them.

"But they are certainly the gold standard at the moment. It’s impressive even compared to a Mercedes."

People complained about Vettel's "domination", but Red Bull were garbage in a straight line, had questionable reliability, and were always at the FIA's mercy with rule-changes. Yes, they still had weekends where all they had to do was turn up and win, but they were few and far between.

Well it for sure doesn't prove that it's the best engine 

Have a look at  P123's  post, I think 2 posts before this.

if that doesn't help, then I can't do much more for you

I think a better engine is not just straight line advantage, think reliability and fuel consumption which then over a race distance leads to time differences due to the weight saved and less time on weaker power modes. Also different car setups can give you more or less straight line speed regardless of the engine. But, I mean, the Ferraris are clearly doing better on straights this year, it does still correlate very, very heavily more powerful engine = quicker on a straight line.

The year before they quit F1

When they sign Fernando Alonso. Then, suddenly, the car becomes crap. 

Have a look at  P123's  post, I think 2 posts before this.

 

if that doesn't help, then I can't do much more for you

Look one down from your own post and have a clearer view, as a hint noikee, and no, this is not a dragrace we are discussing

Edited by AnR, 16 May 2019 - 10:32.

probably some time after most have stopped watching, especially with the current tv coverage.

Easy - when there is an equal distribution of funds and a budget cap.

And how exactly do you enforce that upon those with very  deep pockets the likes of Ferrari and Mercedes?....They will just shift their expenditure sideways and upwards!....Here is an idea .How about the right for any team to buy the winning car for a set price! ...Laugh? It actually was tried out in Hot Rods to even out the competition I believe.