Who will finish 3rd in the Constructor's Championship

So the 2020 season is finally underway. We have got the first race out of the way and what is clear is that Mercedes are clearly ahead of Redbull  but after that there appears to be 4 teams vying for that third place in the constructor's championship. I know one race is a very small sample but that is exactly why i am inviting everyone's opinion on this topic.

I will try and give a brief summary with respect to  each team. 2020 chassis is frozen and will be carried over to 2021 with 2 tokens allowed for modifications. Aero development is allowed.Engine development is frozen with one upgrade allowed on the MGU-K/Battery/CE

Mclaren: Mclaren are coming from the high of finishing 4th in last year's constructor's championship. MCL35 is the car under technical leadership of James Key. At the launch Mclaren said this car has much more potential. The Renault engine looked solid and reliable in preseason testing.. Lando qualified 4th on Saturday and got his very first podium on Sunday via a fastest lap  on the very last lap. There were some doubts regarding their race pace but all of those were put to rest when he could keep Perez comfortably behind until Perez  put on mediums during his first pit stop. Lando also had pulled clear of Leclerc by over  three seconds which was nullified by the safety car. Mclaren have said they will be bringing upgrades. They have only brought minor tweaks here.

Racing Point: The pink Mercedes has been quick so far and it is hard to pick between MCL35 and Racing point at the moment. However Racing Point have said they are planning to bring only one upgrade to the car. They will still be a formidable opponent as the car has strong fundamentals. Stroll although highly rated is not at Perez's level  and that could be a disadvantage.

Ferrari: The signs of Ferrari having lost it's way was clear in testing itself but everyone still had some doubts if they were sandbagging but everything came threadbare come qualifying in Austria. Ferrari are having three major issues at the moment. A sub-optimal chassis, draggy aero and an under-powered engine. Some of the onboards of Vettel during the race were hair raising. Leclerc did a great race and made full use of safety cars and crashes ahead to finish second but clearly Ferrari have a car which is a handful at the moment. Yes Ferrari are a massive organization with great resources but the chassis is frozen, the engine is frozen and how much can Ferrari improve only via aero. Binotto openly admitted that 70-80 percent of their deficit is due to engine alone and that the fix isn't coming this season as the engine development is frozen.

Renault: Renault struggled on Sunday but during the weekend Ricciardo showed some good pace. Ocon still appears to be a long way off and we will have to see how long he takes to close the gap. Renault have already shown their hand with a triple upgrade which has brought them in fight. Will be interesting to see how they stack up this weekend.

Edited by Quickshifter, 06 July 2020 - 14:19.

Ferrari don't have the third quickest car but I think their superior drivers, preparation and operations will see them pick up more points than they should. Really interesting question though.

Racing Point is out of contention due to Stroll.

Renault probably lacks that bit extra, and Ocon appears a bit too rusty.

I can only see McLaren having a tiny chance, but really, Ferrari has better drivers, and everything, and probably will make bigger steps during the year to become a distant third.

Edited by Marklar, 06 July 2020 - 14:33.

Ferrari don't have the third quickest car but I think their superior drivers, preparation and operations will see them pick up more points than they should. Really interesting question though.

For this first time their real advantage of throwing money at the issue is not going to work with the engine and chassis being frozen. As Binotto himself admitted their drag issues and engine power issues cannot be fixed in short term. They are stuck with the chassis and engine till the end of the season. They naturally have the resource advantage in term of technical know how but i think this battle is going to go to the wire.

Racing Point is out of contention due to Stroll.

Renault probably lacks that bit extra, and Ocon appears a bit too rusty.

I can only see McLaren having a tiny chance, but really, Ferrari has better drivers, and everything, and probably will make bigger steps during the year to become a distant third.

They cannot make steps on the chassis or engine, only aero. Ferrari issues are largely due to their chassis direction and engine. Regarding drivers i respect your opinion but i think Vettel although a very good driver is not in the right frame of mind as shown yesterday.

Edited by Quickshifter, 06 July 2020 - 14:37.

I voted McLaren. Two steady drivers and that is what the other 3 don't have. I rate McLaren higher than Renault in operations, especially the team leadership. Ocon is also rusty and not the best racer. Tracing Point can surprise in a few races, but Stroll will usually start more from the back and is more accident prone in the midfield that way. Ferrari then. How the mighty have fallen. With Binotto at the helm, it went down quite quick I would say. They also have one driver not in his prime mindset at the moment and the car is far from how he wants it.

Racing Point seemed to be slightly handicapped by Merc PU/gearbox issues, they were doing OK before that. McLaren had a very good weekend on the other hand where more or less everything went their way. Rather too early to pick a winner between those two I think. Also probably too early to pick a winner between Red Bull and Ferrari on the basis of a single race, but I believe both of those teams have a bit too much for Racing Point and McLaren.

I voted for Tracing Point  just to piss off the whingers!   BUT in all seriousness, I reckon Ferrari will be second even.They have dodged a sure fire bullet this first race.

Ferrari. I'm expecting them to have an atrocious year, but just being considered alongside Racing Point is a reflection of how badly things are going for them!

As much as I'd love to say that I think McLaren can do it, I think they need absolutely everything to go right over a weekend to beat Ferrari. Ferrari just need to make sure that their Hungary upgrade isn't embarrassing!

Ferrari.

Pace wise. - Racing Point are there, not sure they know how to run the races at the top (playing the wild strategies was helping them when midfield./outsiders, running at the front is different). Stroll could cost them too

McLaren have both a reasonable car and a pretty equal diver pairing.

Ferrari looked awfully slow, but with Leclerc and Vettel - they could do it

Merc

Red Bull

Ferrari 

McLaren

Errbody else.

Hard to say at the moment, and is probably the most unpredictable position to predict in the F1 title race other than maybe who will finish 4th in the drivers.

If Ferrari's new car is any good than i would say Ferrari can still get 3rd.

I don't see a reason why Red Bull shouldn't be in the poll. Just because they've seemed 2nd quickest in Austria doesn't mean they'll for sure finish 2nd in WCC. They are already behind in points, have clear reliability issues, questionable 2nd driver and you never know if they will not struggle on some circuits etc. Max might become frustrated with how things are and try to overdrive the car and make more mistakes. And the season will be shorter, each race like the one we had last Sunday may be even more costly for them. 

I honestly believe Red Bull is more likely to finish 3rd than Renault.

Edited by Anderis, 06 July 2020 - 17:51.

Ferrari

Edited by Laster, 06 July 2020 - 18:34.

I miss the option Red Bull.

A few more evetns with setbacks like yesterday and they won't be second at all anymore.....

McLaren haven't even upgraded their car yet. They have more podiums coming their way. Norris was matching Albon's pace (just about) yesterday, pre-SC. Slam dunk.

Ferrari are going to be eaten alive at heavy throttle tracks like Silverstone, Spa, Monza, etc.

Edited by TomNokoe, 06 July 2020 - 19:22.

McLaren haven't even upgraded their car yet. They have more podiums coming their way. Norris was matching Albon's pace (just about) yesterday, pre-SC. Slam dunk.

 

Ferrari are going to be eaten alive at heavy throttle tracks like Silverstone, Spa, Monza, etc.

Red Bull won races with a bigger engine deficit. It's not an easy thing to predict.

Edited by ARTGP, 06 July 2020 - 19:24.

Red Bull won races with a bigger engine deficit. It's not an easy thing to predict.

Not on power tracks though. Plus the Ferrari chassis is also poop whereas the aero packages of Red Bull have always been top notch.

McLaren haven't even upgraded their car yet. They have more podiums coming their way. Norris was matching Albon's pace (just about) yesterday, pre-SC. Slam dunk.

 

Ferrari are going to be eaten alive at heavy throttle tracks like Silverstone, Spa, Monza, etc.

So you reckon Mclaren the only ones to upgrade their car and everyone else sitting scratching their nuts?...Oookkayy....

Ferrari.

Out of the teams fighting for 3rd, Ferrari have the best racer in one of their seats. And by some distance. He might just literally drag them to 3rd.

Second thus far!
 

So you reckon Mclaren the only ones to upgrade their car and everyone else sitting scratching their nuts?...Oookkayy....

Obviously not, but at the moment McLaren are one step behind in the development race compared to Renault and Racing Point. When they draw level they will take off, pace wise.

Sorry! How do you know that?   How do you know they will draw level? And what makes you certain other teams will not be equally eaking out whatever?..Let alone eking out **** that actually works and not a rabbit hole?

Ferrari has a better financial base than the other 3, and this will help them overcome an issues with their drivers.

Second thus far!

Ferrari don't have the third quickest car but I think their superior drivers, preparation and operations will see them pick up more points than they should. Really interesting question though.

That feels like extreme wishful thinking to me. Vettel showed that he is not shaking off his unduly high error rate; and he has never been great at getting the maximum out of a poor car. Leclerc drove fantastically well, but was also lucky with attrition and safety cars. Without them, he would have struggled to finish higher than sixth, behind the two Mercedes, Max, Lando and Albon.

On what we have seen so far, the McLaren looks to be markedly better than the Ferrari, and the Racing Point may well be as well. Not yet convinced by the Renault.

My heart says Mclaren, my head says Ferrari. They have a higher budget to improve the car by pure brute force by throwing money at it.

But you also need the management talent to make sure you are throwing money at the right bit. Ferrari clearly do not have that right now.

 

As much as I'd love to say that I think McLaren can do it, I think they need absolutely everything to go right over a weekend to beat Ferrari.

I can envisage McLaren in response using the quote often attributed to Gary Player. "Yeah, funny that. The harder I practice, the luckier I get."

I think it’ll still be Ferrari. Their PU seems to be a dud in qualy, but LeClerc seemed to have decent pace in the race. If we can get a longer season, I am guessing the pecking order will be Ferrari > Racing Point > McL > Renault, but it might ebb and flow depending on track characteristics.

Edited by UltimateLegacy, 07 July 2020 - 08:10.

Ferrari 100%

Bigger and better team

Better and more expereinced drivers.

McLaren have had great frist races for the last 3 years and look what happened?

McLaren's rival is RP.

Ferrari 100%

 

Bigger and better team

Better and more expereinced drivers.

 

McLaren have had great frist races for the last 3 years and look what happened?

 

McLaren's rival is RP.

Numerous posters claimed something along these lines. No disrespect to Seb, but he is really just a shallow shell of his former self. He is just error prone and unpredictable at this point. I wouldn't even consider him among the top 10 drivers of the current field. How can anyone argue that with him onboard, Ferrari has a stronger driver pairing than McLaren?

Ferrari 100%

Bigger and better team
Better and more expereinced drivers.

McLaren have had great frist races for the last 3 years and look what happened?

McLaren's rival is RP.

Edited by UltimateLegacy, 07 July 2020 - 08:29.

And if I was McLaren, I wouldn't give my competitior such an advantage. They (Ferrari) should sort out their 2020 driver problems by themselves.

That feels like extreme wishful thinking to me. Vettel showed that he is not shaking off his unduly high error rate; and he has never been great at getting the maximum out of a poor car. Leclerc drove fantastically well, but was also lucky with attrition and safety cars. Without them, he would have struggled to finish higher than sixth, behind the two Mercedes, Max, Lando and Albon.

On what we have seen so far, the McLaren looks to be markedly better than the Ferrari, and the Racing Point may well be as well. Not yet convinced by the Renault.

You say it's "wishful thinking". Yet exactly that did happen in Austria. Ferrari had no right to leave Round 1 with 19 points.

Attrition gifted Leclerc one spot (Verstappen) and a penalty (Lewis) another. The rest he took care of - and that included beating two superior McLarens (passing one at a crucial moment) and beating a Racing Point (with better strategy and a great pass).

He earnt that podium by flat out beating his main competition. There wasn't luck in that. Safety cars etc are all part of the game.

We arent talking about WDC standings, which Im sure Leclerc will lead when it comes to F1.5 but the WCC.

Despite Leclercs impressive drive, those two Mclarens hauled in more points and Ferrari are 7 points adrift of Mclaren. This gulf will just get bigger when racing wont involve more than half a dozen cars retiring. This is as good as itll get for Ferrari, abd yet they still managed to be outscored by Mclaren.

You're assuming McLaren will maximise their performance and results everywhere, you're assuming Ferrari will have woeful pace everywhere (they won't be slow in Budapest) and you're assuming Vettel won't ever have a good weekend and bank good points.

Alot of assumptions there.

Edited by UltimateLegacy, 07 July 2020 - 09:07.

Voted McLaren, mostly because I hope they do. 

We need one of the old top teams back at the top, Williams or McLaren.

I am surprised so many posters are talking about Ferrari's ability to improve through the season when their main disadvantage is their engine and chassis which are frozen. Binotto himself has said 70-80 percent of their deficit is because of engine. Also Mclaren drivers are in red hot form while ferrari have lone Leclerc flying their flag.  Mclaren have a solid, predictable chassis and a much better engine. Ferrari have aero upgrades but Mclaren have aero upgrades lined up too, first stop being Silverstone.

As a Mclaren fan i understand the feeling when you suddenly realize that you no longer can perform worse and still score well. When i saw Mclaren slowly slipping away from top 3 in to the midfield, after a while the denial turned in to acceptance. So i do not blame Ferrari fans for thinking somehow the might of their resources are going to see them through, sadly what matters is the car. Ferrari have lapped a second slower than its predecessor on the same track with same tyres. Now if this isn't a crisis then what is. Everyone is aware of Ferrari politics, the media pressure and least of all fans expectations. You can clearly see their primary priority is to set their house in order.

Ferrari have  a lot at their hands while Mclaren can think only about improving their car which has a more robust fundamentals than SF1000. I am not saying it is a given that Mclaren will win this battle just that they appear to be clearly ahead and functioning like a well oiled machined with two motivated drivers plying their trade on the track.

Edited by Quickshifter, 07 July 2020 - 09:25.

No, I assume Mclaren will consistently outscore Ferrari because they have a better driver pairing, a better overral package and strategists that are great at optimizing results and exploiting opportunities. Vettel is clearly in a downward spiral. And however his fans try to pretend he will make a comeback and turn the tide since his fall from grace in 2018, theres a good chance he will continue to flounder. Especially considering his weakness will be over exposed in the stresses of mid field racing whilst his strengths in clean air pace wont be realised until Ferrari sort out there engine problems which is pretty much a non possibility in 2020. Smart money is on Mclaren outscoring Ferrari as long as Vettel is on the team and Ferrari continues to linger in the mid field.