2021 Silly Season Trophy – interim results

This will be the place where I'll publish the interim results of the 2021 Silly Season Trophy, as news of contracts arrive.

First, I'll start with the situation as it was during the submission deadline (December 1). There were three confirmed contracts for 2021:

• Ocon at Renault (expires at the end of 2021)
• Perez at Racing Point (expires at the end of 2022)
• Russell at Williams (expires at the end of 2021)

Assuming there will be no more than ten teams on the grid, the results were as follows:

Place Name             Points Exact Subm
  1   rodlamas          31.00   3     2 
  2   Marklar           31.00   3     4 
  3   Brawn BGP 001     31.00   3     5 
  4   GTA               31.00   3     6 
  5   Starchild         31.00   3     9 
  6   DutchQuicksilver  31.00   3    10 
  7   Grayson           31.00   3    11 
  8   noikeee           31.00   3    14 
  9   M2000-5           31.00   3    15 
      AVERAGE PICK      31.00   3       
 10   SpaceHorseParty   27.14   2     1 
 11   f1paul            27.14   2     3 
 12   scheivlak         27.14   2     7 
 13   Makarias          27.14   2    12 
 14   KWSN - DSM        27.14   2    13 
 15   Costaz            24.00   1     8 

As for the potential results, the initial situation was as follows:

Place Name             Points Exact Subm
  1   KWSN - DSM       139.86  19    13 
  2   rodlamas         135.43  20     2 
  3   GTA              133.71  20     6 
  4   scheivlak        133.71  19     7 
  5   Makarias         131.43  19    12 
  6   f1paul           131.43  19     3 
  7   noikeee          130.57  20    14 
  8   Marklar          128.43  20     4 
  9   Brawn BGP 001    128.14  20     5 
 10   M2000-5          127.57  20    15 
 11   DutchQuicksilver 127.14  20    10 
 12   Starchild        126.71  20     9 
      AVERAGE PICK     125.86  20       
 13   Grayson          124.29  20    11 
 14   SpaceHorseParty  121.00  19     1 
 15   Costaz           117.86  18     8 

Update #1: Leclerc confirmed at Ferrari

The first update came shortly before Christmas, as Ferrari confirmed Charles Leclerc's contract was extended until the end of 2024.

This was in no way a surprise, and every player placed Leclerc at Ferrari. So, everyone gets five points:

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas          36.00 + 5.00   4     2 
  2     0 Marklar           36.00 + 5.00   4     4 
  3     0 Brawn BGP 001     36.00 + 5.00   4     5 
  4     0 GTA               36.00 + 5.00   4     6 
  5     0 Starchild         36.00 + 5.00   4     9 
  6     0 DutchQuicksilver  36.00 + 5.00   4    10 
  7     0 Grayson           36.00 + 5.00   4    11 
  8     0 noikeee           36.00 + 5.00   4    14 
  9     0 M2000-5           36.00 + 5.00   4    15 
          AVERAGE PICK      36.00 + 5.00   4       
 10     0 SpaceHorseParty   32.14 + 5.00   3     1 
 11     0 f1paul            32.14 + 5.00   3     3 
 12     0 scheivlak         32.14 + 5.00   3     7 
 13     0 Makarias          32.14 + 5.00   3    12 
 14     0 KWSN - DSM        32.14 + 5.00   3    13 
 15     0 Costaz            29.00 + 5.00   2     8 

While nobody's potential points are changed:

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       139.86   0.00  19    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         135.43   0.00  20     2 
  3     0 GTA              133.71   0.00  20     6 
  4     0 scheivlak        133.71   0.00  19     7 
  5     0 Makarias         131.43   0.00  19    12 
  6     0 f1paul           131.43   0.00  19     3 
  7     0 noikeee          130.57   0.00  20    14 
  8     0 Marklar          128.43   0.00  20     4 
  9     0 Brawn BGP 001    128.14   0.00  20     5 
 10     0 M2000-5          127.57   0.00  20    15 
 11     0 DutchQuicksilver 127.14   0.00  20    10 
 12     0 Starchild        126.71   0.00  20     9 
          AVERAGE PICK     125.86   0.00  20       
 13     0 Grayson          124.29   0.00  20    11 
 14     0 SpaceHorseParty  121.00   0.00  19     1 
 15     0 Costaz           117.86   0.00  18     8 

Update #2: Verstappen confirmed at Red Bull

Although an important piece in the puzzle that is the 2021 grid, Verstappen was mostly expected to stay at Red Bull. These expectations were confirmed in early January, when Red Bull announced the extension of his contract until the end of 2023.

noikeee was the only one not to place him at Red Bull, and loses one place in the standings for that:

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas          41.14 + 5.14   5     2 
  2     0 Marklar           41.14 + 5.14   5     4 
  3     0 Brawn BGP 001     41.14 + 5.14   5     5 
  4     0 GTA               41.14 + 5.14   5     6 
  5     0 Starchild         41.14 + 5.14   5     9 
  6     0 DutchQuicksilver  41.14 + 5.14   5    10 
  7     0 Grayson           41.14 + 5.14   5    11 
  8   + 1 M2000-5           41.14 + 5.14   5    15 
          AVERAGE PICK      41.14 + 5.14   5       
  9   - 1 noikeee           38.00 + 2.00   4    14 
 10     0 SpaceHorseParty   37.29 + 5.15   4     1 
 11     0 f1paul            37.29 + 5.15   4     3 
 12     0 scheivlak         37.29 + 5.15   4     7 
 13     0 Makarias          37.29 + 5.15   4    12 
 14     0 KWSN - DSM        37.29 + 5.15   4    13 
 15     0 Costaz            34.14 + 5.14   3     8 

He also drops down a few places in the potential standings:

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       139.86   0.00  19    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         135.43   0.00  20     2 
  3     0 GTA              133.71   0.00  20     6 
  4     0 scheivlak        133.71   0.00  19     7 
  5     0 Makarias         131.43   0.00  19    12 
  6     0 f1paul           131.43   0.00  19     3 
  7   + 1 Marklar          128.43   0.00  20     4 
  8   + 1 Brawn BGP 001    128.14   0.00  20     5 
  9   + 1 M2000-5          127.57   0.00  20    15 
 10   + 1 DutchQuicksilver 127.14   0.00  20    10 
 11   + 1 Starchild        126.71   0.00  20     9 
          AVERAGE PICK     125.86   0.00  20       
 12   - 5 noikeee          125.57 - 5.00  19    14 
 13     0 Grayson          124.29   0.00  20    11 
 14     0 SpaceHorseParty  121.00   0.00  19     1 
 15     0 Costaz           117.86   0.00  18     8 

Update #3: Norris confirmed at McLaren

This really should have been a part of the initial points calculation, but I admit I used Wikipedia to check what was confirmed when. Norris's contract expires at the end of 2022, and that was announced last August.

Most players expected him to stay at McLaren, anyway:

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas          46.43 + 5.29   6     2 
  2     0 Marklar           46.43 + 5.29   6     4 
  3     0 Brawn BGP 001     46.43 + 5.29   6     5 
  4     0 GTA               46.43 + 5.29   6     6 
  5     0 Starchild         46.43 + 5.29   6     9 
  6     0 DutchQuicksilver  46.43 + 5.29   6    10 
  7     0 Grayson           46.43 + 5.29   6    11 
  8     0 M2000-5           46.43 + 5.29   6    15 
          AVERAGE PICK      46.43 + 5.29   6       
  9     0 noikeee           43.29 + 5.29   5    14 
 10     0 SpaceHorseParty   42.57 + 5.28   5     1 
 11   + 2 Makarias          42.57 + 5.28   5    12 
 12   + 2 KWSN - DSM        42.57 + 5.28   5    13 
 13   + 2 Costaz            39.43 + 5.29   4     8 
 14   - 2 scheivlak         39.36 + 2.07   4     7 
 15   - 4 f1paul            37.29   0.00   4     3 

scheivlak and f1paul lose out on big points for Bottas or Alonso joining McLaren:

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       139.86   0.00  19    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         135.43   0.00  20     2 
  3     0 GTA              133.71   0.00  20     6 
  4   + 1 Makarias         131.43   0.00  19    12 
  5   - 1 scheivlak        128.79 - 4.92  18     7 
  6   + 1 Marklar          128.43   0.00  20     4 
  7   + 1 Brawn BGP 001    128.14   0.00  20     5 
  8   + 1 M2000-5          127.57   0.00  20    15 
  9   + 1 DutchQuicksilver 127.14   0.00  20    10 
 10   + 1 Starchild        126.71   0.00  20     9 
 11   - 5 f1paul           126.43 - 5.00  18     3 
          AVERAGE PICK     125.86   0.00  20       
 12     0 noikeee          125.57   0.00  19    14 
 13     0 Grayson          124.29   0.00  20    11 
 14     0 SpaceHorseParty  121.00   0.00  19     1 
 15     0 Costaz           117.86   0.00  18     8 

Update #4: Vettel to leave Ferrari

Ferrari's announcement that Sebastian Vettel would leave Ferrari at the end of 2020 really got the silly season going.

The confirmed points do not change, but the potential ones do. The players who expected Vettel to stay at Ferrari (and there weren't many) are the biggest losers. Despite that, KWSN - DSM still has the most potential points.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       135.79 - 4.07  18    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         135.43   0.00  20     2 
  3     0 GTA              133.71   0.00  20     6 
  4     0 Makarias         131.43   0.00  19    12 
  5     0 scheivlak        128.79   0.00  18     7 
  6     0 Marklar          128.43   0.00  20     4 
  7     0 Brawn BGP 001    128.14   0.00  20     5 
  8     0 M2000-5          127.57   0.00  20    15 
  9   + 3 noikeee          125.57   0.00  19    14 
 10   + 1 f1paul           125.00 - 1.43  18     3 
 11   - 2 DutchQuicksilver 123.07 - 4.07  19    10 
 12   + 1 Grayson          122.86 - 1.43  20    11 
 13   - 3 Starchild        122.64 - 4.07  19     9 
          AVERAGE PICK     121.79 - 4.07  19       
 14     0 SpaceHorseParty  121.00   0.00  19     1 
 15     0 Costaz           117.86   0.00  18     8 

Update #5: Ricciardo confirmed at McLaren

Soon after Ferrari's announcement, the expectation was that either Ricciardo or Sainz would get the vacant seat. McLaren announced they would replace Sainz with Ricciardo in 2021 and beyond, thus all but confirming Ferrari's line-up as well.

Nobody saw that coming, as every player placed Sainz at McLaren. However, everyone gets two points, as everyone expected Ricciardo to stay in F1 in 2021.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas          48.43 + 2.00   6     2 
  2     0 Marklar           48.43 + 2.00   6     4 
  3     0 Brawn BGP 001     48.43 + 2.00   6     5 
  4     0 GTA               48.43 + 2.00   6     6 
  5     0 Starchild         48.43 + 2.00   6     9 
  6     0 DutchQuicksilver  48.43 + 2.00   6    10 
  7     0 Grayson           48.43 + 2.00   6    11 
  8     0 M2000-5           48.43 + 2.00   6    15 
          AVERAGE PICK      48.43 + 2.00   6       
  9     0 noikeee           45.29 + 2.00   5    14 
 10     0 SpaceHorseParty   44.57 + 2.00   5     1 
 11     0 Makarias          44.57 + 2.00   5    12 
 12     0 KWSN - DSM        44.57 + 2.00   5    13 
 13     0 Costaz            41.43 + 2.00   4     8 
 14     0 scheivlak         41.36 + 2.00   4     7 
 15     0 f1paul            39.29 + 2.00   4     3 

Large swings in the potential points standings, as this not only takes up the only remaining McLaren seat, but also messes with everyone's plans for Ricciardo.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       128.93 - 6.86  16    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         128.14 - 7.29  18     2 
  3     0 GTA              126.86 - 6.85  18     6 
  4     0 Makarias         124.14 - 7.29  17    12 
  5   + 1 Marklar          121.14 - 7.29  18     4 
  6   + 1 Brawn BGP 001    120.86 - 7.28  18     5 
  7   + 1 M2000-5          120.29 - 7.28  18    15 
  8   + 4 Grayson          119.00 - 3.86  19    11 
  9     0 noikeee          118.71 - 6.86  17    14 
 10   - 5 scheivlak        117.07 -11.72  15     7 
 11   + 3 SpaceHorseParty  116.71 - 4.29  18     1 
 12   - 1 DutchQuicksilver 116.21 - 6.86  17    10 
 13     0 Starchild        115.79 - 6.85  17     9 
          AVERAGE PICK     114.93 - 6.86  17       
 14   + 1 Costaz           111.00 - 6.86  16     8 
 15   - 5 f1paul           110.50 -14.50  15     3 

Update #6: Sainz confirmed at Ferrari

It didn't take long after that for Ferrari to confirm Carlos Sainz would join the team in 2021. While many players expected Vettel to leave Ferrari, nobody guessed Sainz would be the one to replace him. Six players had picked Ricciardo for the seat, and one each for Hamilton, Hülkenberg, Norris, and Ocon.

Again, two points for correctly predicting Sainz would remain in F1:

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas          50.43 + 2.00   6     2 
  2     0 Marklar           50.43 + 2.00   6     4 
  3     0 Brawn BGP 001     50.43 + 2.00   6     5 
  4     0 GTA               50.43 + 2.00   6     6 
  5     0 Starchild         50.43 + 2.00   6     9 
  6     0 DutchQuicksilver  50.43 + 2.00   6    10 
  7     0 Grayson           50.43 + 2.00   6    11 
  8     0 M2000-5           50.43 + 2.00   6    15 
          AVERAGE PICK      50.43 + 2.00   6       
  9     0 noikeee           47.29 + 2.00   5    14 
 10     0 SpaceHorseParty   46.57 + 2.00   5     1 
 11     0 Makarias          46.57 + 2.00   5    12 
 12     0 KWSN - DSM        46.57 + 2.00   5    13 
 13     0 Costaz            43.43 + 2.00   4     8 
 14     0 scheivlak         43.36 + 2.00   4     7 
 15     0 f1paul            41.29 + 2.00   4     3 

And some changes in the potential standings, as the Ferrari seat is now taken:

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       128.93   0.00  16    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         128.14   0.00  18     2 
  3   + 1 Makarias         124.14   0.00  17    12 
  4   - 1 GTA              122.79 - 4.07  17     6 
  5     0 Marklar          121.14   0.00  18     4 
  6     0 Brawn BGP 001    120.86   0.00  18     5 
  7     0 M2000-5          120.29   0.00  18    15 
  8   + 2 scheivlak        117.07   0.00  15     7 
  9   + 3 DutchQuicksilver 116.21   0.00  17    10 
 10   - 2 Grayson          116.00 - 3.00  18    11 
 11   + 2 Starchild        115.79   0.00  17     9 
          AVERAGE PICK     114.93   0.00  17       
 12   - 1 SpaceHorseParty  113.71 - 3.00  17     1 
 13   - 4 noikeee          113.71 - 5.00  16    14 
 14     0 Costaz           111.00   0.00  16     8 
 15     0 f1paul           110.14 - 0.36  15     3 

I take my run of glory for as long as it lasts.

Update #7: Alonso confirmed at Renault

Fernando Alonso surprised some people by joining Renault. For years, Alonso was linked to every open seat in the paddock, and now it's finally come true.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas          50.43   0.00   6     2 
  2     0 Marklar           50.43   0.00   6     4 
  3     0 Brawn BGP 001     50.43   0.00   6     5 
  4     0 GTA               50.43   0.00   6     6 
  5     0 Starchild         50.43   0.00   6     9 
  6     0 DutchQuicksilver  50.43   0.00   6    10 
  7     0 Grayson           50.43   0.00   6    11 
  8     0 M2000-5           50.43   0.00   6    15 
          AVERAGE PICK      50.43   0.00   6       
  9     0 noikeee           47.29   0.00   5    14 
 10   + 5 f1paul            47.29 + 6.00   4     3 
 11   - 1 SpaceHorseParty   46.57   0.00   5     1 
 12   - 1 Makarias          46.57   0.00   5    12 
 13   - 1 KWSN - DSM        46.57   0.00   5    13 
 14   - 1 Costaz            43.43   0.00   4     8 
 15   - 1 scheivlak         43.36   0.00   4     7 

f1paul was the only one to expect Alonso to rejoin the grid, although he expected him to return to McLaren. He moves from last place to 10th.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       126.57 - 2.36  16    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         121.57 - 6.57  17     2 
  3   + 1 GTA              119.86 - 2.93  17     6 
  4   - 1 Makarias         117.14 - 7.00  16    12 
  5   + 3 scheivlak        114.93 - 2.14  15     7 
  6   - 1 Marklar          114.57 - 6.57  17     4 
  7   - 1 Brawn BGP 001    114.29 - 6.57  17     5 
  8   + 1 DutchQuicksilver 113.86 - 2.35  17    10 
  9   - 2 M2000-5          113.71 - 6.58  17    15 
 10   + 1 Starchild        113.43 - 2.36  17     9 
          AVERAGE PICK     112.57 - 2.36  17       
 11   + 2 noikeee          111.71 - 2.00  16    14 
 12   - 2 Grayson          111.00 - 5.00  17    11 
 13   + 2 f1paul           110.14   0.00  15     3 
 14   - 2 SpaceHorseParty  106.71 - 7.00  16     1 
 15   - 1 Costaz           104.00 - 7.00  15     8 

All other players lose points, as both Renault seats are now taken.

Update #8: Latifi confirmed at Williams

After tinkering with their line-ups for the last few years, Williams have opted for continuity and announced both drivers will continue driving for them in 2021. Russell's contract status had already been confirmed some time ago, so this update only reflects the news that Latifi will drive for Williams next year.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas          55.57 + 5.14   7     2 
  2     0 Marklar           55.57 + 5.14   7     4 
  3   + 1 GTA               55.57 + 5.14   7     6 
  4   + 1 Starchild         55.57 + 5.14   7     9 
  5   + 1 DutchQuicksilver  55.57 + 5.14   7    10 
  6   + 1 Grayson           55.57 + 5.14   7    11 
  7   + 1 M2000-5           55.57 + 5.14   7    15 
          AVERAGE PICK      55.57 + 5.14   7       
  8   + 1 noikeee           52.43 + 5.14   6    14 
  9   + 1 f1paul            52.43 + 5.14   5     3 
 10   + 1 SpaceHorseParty   51.71 + 5.14   6     1 
 11   + 1 Makarias          51.71 + 5.14   6    12 
 12   + 1 KWSN - DSM        51.71 + 5.14   6    13 
 13   -10 Brawn BGP 001     50.43   0.00   6     5 
 14     0 Costaz            48.57 + 5.14   5     8 
 15     0 scheivlak         48.50 + 5.14   5     7 

Most players placed Latifi at Williams. Brawn BGP 001 was the only one not to do so, and drops from third place to thirteenth. He had selected an unknown driver for that seat.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       121.93 - 4.64  15    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         121.57   0.00  17     2 
  3     0 GTA              119.86   0.00  17     6 
  4   + 2 Marklar          114.57   0.00  17     4 
  5   + 3 DutchQuicksilver 113.86   0.00  17    10 
  6   + 3 M2000-5          113.71   0.00  17    15 
  7   + 3 Starchild        113.43   0.00  17     9 
  8   - 4 Makarias         112.93 - 4.21  15    12 
          AVERAGE PICK     112.57   0.00  17       
  9   + 2 noikeee          111.71   0.00  16    14 
 10   + 2 Grayson          111.00   0.00  17    11 
 11   - 6 scheivlak        110.86 - 4.07  14     7 
 12   - 5 Brawn BGP 001    109.29 - 5.00  16     5 
 13   + 1 SpaceHorseParty  106.71   0.00  16     1 
 14   - 1 f1paul           105.93 - 4.21  14     3 
 15     0 Costaz           101.64 - 2.36  14     8 

Potential points standings are affected slightly more. This is because some players expected Russell to leave Williams, so they could have scored more points if their alternate choice joined the team.

A sliver of a lead is still a lead.

Oooopss.... Just looked at my entry, I will crash way down before this is over.

Update #9: Bottas confirmed at Mercedes

While many expected Mercedes to make some changes to their driver line-up, they've retained Valtteri Bottas for 2021. Change is still possible, though, as Hamilton is yet to extend his contract.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas          61.29 + 5.72   8     2 
  2     0 Marklar           61.29 + 5.72   8     4 
  3     0 GTA               61.29 + 5.72   8     6 
  4     0 Starchild         61.29 + 5.72   8     9 
  5     0 DutchQuicksilver  61.29 + 5.72   8    10 
  6     0 Grayson           61.29 + 5.72   8    11 
  7     0 M2000-5           61.29 + 5.72   8    15 
          AVERAGE PICK      61.29 + 5.72   8       
  8     0 noikeee           58.14 + 5.71   7    14 
  9   + 4 Brawn BGP 001     56.14 + 5.71   7     5 
 10   + 4 Costaz            54.29 + 5.72   6     8 
 11     0 Makarias          53.86 + 2.15   6    12 
 12     0 KWSN - DSM        53.86 + 2.15   6    13 
 13   - 4 f1paul            52.43   0.00   5     3 
 14   - 4 SpaceHorseParty   51.71   0.00   6     1 
 15     0 scheivlak         50.64 + 2.14   5     7 

The biggest losers are f1paul and myself, who thought Bottas wouldn't be able to find a new seat after getting released by Mercedes.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       121.71 - 0.22  15    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         121.57   0.00  17     2 
  3     0 GTA              119.86   0.00  17     6 
  4     0 Marklar          114.57   0.00  17     4 
  5     0 DutchQuicksilver 113.86   0.00  17    10 
  6     0 M2000-5          113.71   0.00  17    15 
  7     0 Starchild        113.43   0.00  17     9 
          AVERAGE PICK     112.57   0.00  17       
  8     0 Makarias         112.43 - 0.50  15    12 
  9     0 noikeee          111.71   0.00  16    14 
 10     0 Grayson          111.00   0.00  17    11 
 11     0 scheivlak        110.07 - 0.79  14     7 
 12     0 Brawn BGP 001    109.29   0.00  16     5 
 13   + 1 f1paul           103.29 - 2.64  14     3 
 14   - 1 SpaceHorseParty  101.71 - 5.00  15     1 
 15     0 Costaz           101.64   0.00  14     8 

Minor changes in the potential standings.

Update #10: Pérez to leave Racing Point/Aston Martin

Although he had a contract for 2021, Sergio Pérez announced this week that he would leave the current Racing Point team at the end of the season. This reverses some points that were already counted in the standings.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas          56.29 - 5.00   7     2 
  2     0 Marklar           56.29 - 5.00   7     4 
  3     0 GTA               56.29 - 5.00   7     6 
  4     0 Starchild         56.29 - 5.00   7     9 
  5     0 DutchQuicksilver  56.29 - 5.00   7    10 
  6     0 Grayson           56.29 - 5.00   7    11 
  7     0 M2000-5           56.29 - 5.00   7    15 
          AVERAGE PICK      56.29 - 5.00   7       
  8     0 noikeee           53.14 - 5.00   6    14 
  9     0 Brawn BGP 001     51.14 - 5.00   6     5 
 10     0 Costaz            49.29 - 5.00   5     8 
 11     0 Makarias          48.86 - 5.00   5    12 
 12     0 KWSN - DSM        48.86 - 5.00   5    13 
 13     0 f1paul            47.43 - 5.00   4     3 
 14     0 SpaceHorseParty   46.71 - 5.00   5     1 
 15     0 scheivlak         45.64 - 5.00   4     7 

Every single player had predicted Pérez would stay at the team, so everyone loses 5 points.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       121.71   0.00  15    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         121.57   0.00  17     2 
  3     0 GTA              119.86   0.00  17     6 
  4     0 Marklar          114.57   0.00  17     4 
  5     0 DutchQuicksilver 113.86   0.00  17    10 
  6     0 M2000-5          113.71   0.00  17    15 
  7     0 Starchild        113.43   0.00  17     9 
          AVERAGE PICK     112.57   0.00  17       
  8     0 Makarias         112.43   0.00  15    12 
  9     0 noikeee          111.71   0.00  16    14 
 10     0 Grayson          111.00   0.00  17    11 
 11     0 scheivlak        110.07   0.00  14     7 
 12     0 Brawn BGP 001    109.29   0.00  16     5 
 13     0 f1paul           103.29   0.00  14     3 
 14     0 SpaceHorseParty  101.71   0.00  15     1 
 15     0 Costaz           101.64   0.00  14     8 

Somehow, the potential points calculation is not affected. I bet there's something wrong with the way I calculate it, but I don't have time to check it right now.

Update #11: Vettel confirmed at Aston Martin

We didn't have to wait long after Pérez's announcement to hear official word on his replacement: it will be none other than four-time world champion Sebastian Vettel, in a long-rumored move.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1   + 1 Marklar           58.64 + 2.35   7     4 
  2   + 2 Starchild         58.64 + 2.35   7     9 
  3   + 2 DutchQuicksilver  58.64 + 2.35   7    10 
  4   + 2 Grayson           58.64 + 2.35   7    11 
  5   + 2 M2000-5           58.64 + 2.35   7    15 
          AVERAGE PICK      58.64 + 2.35   7       
  6   - 5 rodlamas          56.29   0.00   7     2 
  7   - 4 GTA               56.29   0.00   7     6 
  8     0 noikeee           55.50 + 2.36   6    14 
  9     0 Brawn BGP 001     53.50 + 2.36   6     5 
 10     0 Costaz            51.64 + 2.35   5     8 
 11   + 1 KWSN - DSM        51.21 + 2.35   5    13 
 12   + 1 f1paul            49.79 + 2.36   4     3 
 13   - 2 Makarias          48.86   0.00   5    12 
 14     0 SpaceHorseParty   46.71   0.00   5     1 
 15     0 scheivlak         45.64   0.00   4     7 

Not even Quasimodo could have predicted this way back last November. Nearly half of all players expected Vettel to retire or take a sabbatical, and lose out on some points.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       119.07 - 2.64  14    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         116.57 - 5.00  16     2 
  3     0 GTA              114.86 - 5.00  16     6 
  4   + 1 DutchQuicksilver 111.21 - 2.65  16    10 
  5   + 2 Starchild        110.79 - 2.64  16     9 
  6   - 2 Marklar          110.36 - 4.21  16     4 
          AVERAGE PICK     109.93 - 2.64  16       
  7   - 1 M2000-5          109.50 - 4.21  16    15 
  8   + 2 Grayson          108.36 - 2.64  16    11 
  9     0 noikeee          107.50 - 4.21  15    14 
 10   - 2 Makarias         107.43 - 5.00  14    12 
 11   + 1 Brawn BGP 001    105.07 - 4.22  15     5 
 12   - 1 scheivlak        105.07 - 5.00  13     7 
 13     0 f1paul           100.64 - 2.65  13     3 
 14   + 1 Costaz            97.00 - 4.64  13     8 
 15   - 1 SpaceHorseParty   96.71 - 5.00  14     1 

Now, the potential points drop – I suspect this, in part, shows the effect of Pérez leaving the team. I'll have to check my code later. We see the first players drop below 100 points in the potential standings, but, there's still a large gap between the best confirmed points performers and the worst potential points performers.

Update #12: Grosjean and Magnussen to leave Haas

A little more than a week ago, Haas made the announcement that one of the longest-tenured driver pairings currently in F1 – Grosjean and Magnussen – would leave at the end of the season after four years together. Grosjean had been with Haas since their first race way back in 2016.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 KWSN - DSM       116.07 - 3.00  13    13 
  2     0 rodlamas         113.79 - 2.78  15     2 
  3     0 GTA              112.79 - 2.07  15     6 
  4     0 DutchQuicksilver 108.21 - 3.00  15    10 
  5   + 3 Makarias         105.07 - 2.36  13    12 
  6   + 1 Marklar          104.57 - 3.00  14     4 
  7   - 2 Starchild        103.71 - 7.08  14     9 
  8   + 1 M2000-5          103.71 - 3.00  14    15 
  9   + 1 scheivlak        103.00 - 2.07  12     7 
          AVERAGE PICK     102.86 - 7.07  14       
 10   - 4 Grayson          101.29 - 7.07  14    11 
 11   + 1 Brawn BGP 001     99.29 - 3.00  13     5 
 12   + 1 f1paul            98.29 - 2.35  12     3 
 13   - 2 noikeee           97.43 - 7.07  12    14 
 14   + 1 SpaceHorseParty   94.64 - 2.07  13     1 
 15   - 1 Costaz            94.00 - 3.00  12     8 

Everyone placed Magnussen at Haas, so everyone loses points. The biggest losers (Starchild, Grayson, and noikeee) also picked Grosjean for Haas.

Update #13: Gasly confirmed at AlphaTauri

After a great season (including a win!), and despite a free seat at Red Bull, Pierre Gasly will continue at AlphaTauri in 2021.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1   + 1 Starchild         64.79 + 6.15   8     9 
  2   + 1 DutchQuicksilver  64.79 + 6.15   8    10 
          AVERAGE PICK      64.79 + 6.15   8       
  3   + 4 GTA               62.43 + 6.14   8     6 
  4   + 4 noikeee           61.64 + 6.14   7    14 
  5   - 4 Marklar           60.86 + 2.22   7     4 
  6   - 1 M2000-5           60.86 + 2.22   7    15 
  7   - 3 Grayson           58.64   0.00   7    11 
  8   - 2 rodlamas          58.50 + 2.21   7     2 
  9   + 3 f1paul            55.93 + 6.14   5     3 
 10   - 1 Brawn BGP 001     55.71 + 2.21   6     5 
 11   + 2 Makarias          55.00 + 6.14   6    12 
 12   - 1 KWSN - DSM        53.43 + 2.22   5    13 
 13   + 2 scheivlak         51.79 + 6.15   5     7 
 14   - 4 Costaz            51.64   0.00   5     8 
 15   - 1 SpaceHorseParty   46.71   0.00   5     1 

Gasly's situation seemed a lot more gloomy this time last year, and some (including me) expected him to leave F1. Starchild takes the lead, having been one of eight players to pick Gasly for AlphaTauri. DutchQuicksilver has the same amount of points, but is second because he submitted his prediction later. Marklar drops from first to fifth, as he placed Gasly at Renault – this has now become a popular rumor.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1   + 2 GTA              112.79   0.00  15     6 
  2     0 rodlamas         110.36 - 3.43  14     2 
  3   + 1 DutchQuicksilver 108.21   0.00  15    10 
  4   - 3 KWSN - DSM       107.86 - 8.21  11    13 
  5     0 Makarias         105.07   0.00  13    12 
  6   + 1 Starchild        103.71   0.00  14     9 
  7   + 2 scheivlak        103.00   0.00  12     7 
          AVERAGE PICK     102.86   0.00  14       
  8   - 2 Marklar          101.14 - 3.43  13     4 
  9   - 1 M2000-5          100.71 - 3.00  13    15 
 10   + 2 f1paul            98.29   0.00  12     3 
 11   + 2 noikeee           97.43   0.00  12    14 
 12   - 2 Grayson           96.29 - 5.00  13    11 
 13   - 2 Brawn BGP 001     95.86 - 3.43  12     5 
 14   + 1 Costaz            92.00 - 2.00  12     8 
 15   - 1 SpaceHorseParty   89.64 - 5.00  12     1 

GTA takes the lead in the potential points standings, having been one of the players to correctly predict that Gasly would stay. The player with the least potential points (SpaceHorseParty) is slowly, but surely approaching the player with the most confirmed points (Starchild).

Update #14: Giovinazzi and Räikkönen confirmed at Alfa Romeo

Despite rumors that Mick Schumacher would join the team his father was driving for before Formula One, it was announced a few days ago that Alfa Romeo would retain Antonio Giovinazzi and Kimi Räikkönen in 2021.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1   + 1 DutchQuicksilver  73.29 + 8.50   9    10 
  2   + 5 Grayson           70.79 +12.15   9    11 
  3   - 2 Starchild         70.64 + 5.85   9     9 
          AVERAGE PICK      70.64 + 5.85   9       
  4   + 1 Marklar           69.36 + 8.50   8     4 
  5   + 1 M2000-5           69.36 + 8.50   8    15 
  6   - 3 GTA               68.29 + 5.86   9     6 
  7   + 2 f1paul            68.07 +12.14   7     3 
  8   - 4 noikeee           67.50 + 5.86   8    14 
  9   + 1 Brawn BGP 001     61.57 + 5.86   7     5 
 10   + 1 Makarias          60.86 + 5.86   7    12 
 11   + 1 KWSN - DSM        59.29 + 5.86   6    13 
 12   - 4 rodlamas          58.50   0.00   7     2 
 13     0 scheivlak         57.64 + 5.85   6     7 
 14   + 1 SpaceHorseParty   53.00 + 6.29   6     1 
 15   - 1 Costaz            51.64   0.00   5     8 

Grayson and f1paul have won the jackpot, as the only two players to predict both drivers would stay in their current team. DutchQuicksilver takes the lead, having chosen Shwartzman as Räikkönen's teammate and Giovinazzi for Haas. Meanwhile, former leader Starchild drops to third place, having picked Giovinazzi and Shwartzman for Alfa Romeo, and predicted Räikkönen would retire.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 GTA              106.93 - 5.86  14     6 
  2   + 2 KWSN - DSM       102.43 - 5.43  10    13 
  3     0 DutchQuicksilver  99.79 - 8.42  13    10 
  4   + 1 Makarias          99.21 - 5.86  12    12 
  5   + 5 f1paul            98.29   0.00  12     3 
  6   - 4 rodlamas          98.00 -12.36  12     2 
  7   - 1 Starchild         97.79 - 5.92  13     9 
          AVERAGE PICK      97.43 - 5.43  13       
  8   - 1 scheivlak         97.14 - 5.86  11     7 
  9   + 3 Grayson           96.29   0.00  13    11 
 10   - 2 Marklar           93.21 - 7.93  11     4 
 11   - 2 M2000-5           92.79 - 7.92  11    15 
 12   - 1 noikeee           91.50 - 5.93  11    14 
 13     0 Brawn BGP 001     90.43 - 5.43  11     5 
 14   + 1 SpaceHorseParty   83.79 - 5.85  11     1 
 15   - 1 Costaz            80.00 -12.00  10     8 

GTA still has the largest potential of all players (at least, if we think all unconfirmed predictions are equally probable). rodlamas and Costaz lose a lot of points, having been the only two players to expect both Giovinazzi and Räikkönen to leave F1.

Update #15: Mazepin confirmed at Haas

This has been an eventful week, and among other things, we've heard two announcements from Haas. The first was on Monday, when they announced Nikita Mazepin would join the team on a multi-year deal.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  73.29   0.00   9    10 
  2   + 5 f1paul            73.07 + 5.00   8     3 
  3   - 1 Grayson           70.79   0.00   9    11 
  4   - 1 Starchild         70.64   0.00   9     9 
          AVERAGE PICK      70.64   0.00   9       
  5   - 1 Marklar           69.36   0.00   8     4 
  6   - 1 M2000-5           69.36   0.00   8    15 
  7   - 1 GTA               68.29   0.00   9     6 
  8     0 noikeee           67.50   0.00   8    14 
  9     0 Brawn BGP 001     61.57   0.00   7     5 
 10     0 Makarias          60.86   0.00   7    12 
 11     0 KWSN - DSM        59.29   0.00   6    13 
 12     0 rodlamas          58.50   0.00   7     2 
 13     0 scheivlak         57.64   0.00   6     7 
 14   + 1 Costaz            56.64 + 5.00   6     8 
 15   - 1 SpaceHorseParty   53.00   0.00   6     1 

Mazepin was picked by nobody, so f1paul and Costaz score 5 points each for predicting Haas would sign an unknown driver. This allows f1paul to leap into second place (less than a quarter of a point behind DutchQuicksilver), and Costaz to move up from last place, leaving me in the dust.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 GTA              104.00 - 2.93  14     6 
  2   + 3 f1paul           100.64 + 2.35  13     3 
  3   - 1 KWSN - DSM       100.00 - 2.43  10    13 
  4   - 1 DutchQuicksilver  97.79 - 2.00  13    10 
  5   - 1 Makarias          96.57 - 2.64  12    12 
  6   + 1 Starchild         95.14 - 2.65  13     9 
  7   - 1 rodlamas          95.07 - 2.93  12     2 
          AVERAGE PICK      95.00 - 2.43  13       
  8   + 1 Grayson           94.29 - 2.00  13    11 
  9   - 1 scheivlak         94.21 - 2.93  11     7 
 10     0 Marklar           91.21 - 2.00  11     4 
 11     0 M2000-5           90.79 - 2.00  11    15 
 12     0 noikeee           89.50 - 2.00  11    14 
 13     0 Brawn BGP 001     88.00 - 2.43  11     5 
 14   + 1 Costaz            82.36 + 2.36  11     8 
 15   - 1 SpaceHorseParty   80.86 - 2.93  11     1 

It seems obvious to me now, but the potential points don't include unknown drivers in the calculation. I will fix this later and hopefully edit this post to show the real potential points.

Update #16: Schumacher confirmed at Haas

Haas didn't wait long to confirm what many had already rumored – Mick Schumacher will also join in 2021, making it an all-rookie lineup for the team.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  73.29   0.00   9    10 
          AVERAGE PICK      73.07 + 2.43   9       
  2     0 f1paul            73.07   0.00   8     3 
  3   + 2 Marklar           71.79 + 2.43   8     4 
  4   + 2 M2000-5           71.79 + 2.43   8    15 
  5   - 2 Grayson           70.79   0.00   9    11 
  6   + 1 GTA               70.71 + 2.42   9     6 
  7   - 3 Starchild         70.64   0.00   9     9 
  8     0 noikeee           67.50   0.00   8    14 
  9     0 Brawn BGP 001     64.00 + 2.43   7     5 
 10     0 Makarias          63.29 + 2.43   7    12 
 11     0 KWSN - DSM        61.71 + 2.42   6    13 
 12     0 rodlamas          60.93 + 2.43   7     2 
 13     0 scheivlak         60.07 + 2.43   6     7 
 14     0 Costaz            56.64   0.00   6     8 
 15     0 SpaceHorseParty   55.43 + 2.43   6     1 

Schumacher was picked by 9 out of 15 players, and every one of them placed him at Alfa Romeo. Shwartzman, his colleague and rival at the Ferrari Driver Academy, was a more popular pick for Haas when the picks were made. Curiously, the current leaders did not pick Schumacher at all, allowing Marklar and M2000-5 to approach them within 1.5 points.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1   + 1 f1paul            95.64 - 5.00  12     3 
  2   + 2 DutchQuicksilver  95.00 - 2.79  13    10 
          AVERAGE PICK      94.79 - 0.21  13       
  3   - 2 GTA               93.29 -10.71  12     6 
  4   + 2 Starchild         92.36 - 2.78  13     9 
  5   - 2 KWSN - DSM        92.00 - 8.00   9    13 
  6   + 2 Grayson           91.64 - 2.65  13    11 
  7   + 3 Marklar           91.21   0.00  11     4 
  8   + 3 M2000-5           90.79   0.00  11    15 
  9   + 3 noikeee           86.86 - 2.64  11    14 
 10   - 5 Makarias          85.86 -10.71  10    12 
 11   - 4 rodlamas          84.36 -10.71  10     2 
 12   + 1 Brawn BGP 001     83.79 - 4.21  10     5 
 13   - 4 scheivlak         83.50 -10.71   9     7 
 14     0 Costaz            77.36 - 5.00  10     8 
 15     0 SpaceHorseParty   76.29 - 4.57  10     1 

As discussed in the previous post, the potential points calculation might not show the real values. Nevertheless, as more and more seats are taken, the potential standings order starts to resemble the actual standings more and more.

There are four more seats to be filled: one each at Mercedes, Red Bull, Racing Point, and AlphaTauri. The only two players not to pick both Hamilton for Mercedes and Stroll for Racing Point are noikeee and Costaz, so in all likelihood, the winner of this game will be decided by Red Bull.

Update #17: Stroll confirmed at Aston Martin

The FIA released the first version of the 2021 entry list, and Lance Stroll is listed as an Aston Martin driver in it. It is by no means a surprise, but it – finally – a clear enough confirmation that allows us to count those points. Interestingly, the entry list also lists Lewis Hamilton as a Mercedes driver, although we are yet to hear news about his contract. Considering that Hamilton's contract situation and negotiations have been a lot more public than Stroll's, I'll wait until we get an official announcement on Hamilton before counting points for him.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  78.43 + 5.14  10    10 
  2     0 f1paul            78.21 + 5.14   9     3 
          AVERAGE PICK      78.21 + 5.14  10       
  3     0 Marklar           76.93 + 5.14   9     4 
  4     0 M2000-5           76.93 + 5.14   9    15 
  5     0 Grayson           75.93 + 5.14  10    11 
  6     0 GTA               75.86 + 5.15  10     6 
  7     0 Starchild         75.79 + 5.15  10     9 
  8     0 noikeee           72.64 + 5.14   9    14 
  9     0 Brawn BGP 001     69.14 + 5.14   8     5 
 10     0 Makarias          68.43 + 5.14   8    12 
 11     0 KWSN - DSM        66.86 + 5.15   7    13 
 12     0 rodlamas          66.07 + 5.14   8     2 
 13     0 scheivlak         65.21 + 5.14   7     7 
 14   + 1 SpaceHorseParty   60.57 + 5.14   7     1 
 15   - 1 Costaz            58.64 + 2.00   6     8

As mentioned before, Costaz was the only player not to place Stroll at Aston Martin. However, I said that he didn't pick Stroll at all – I was wrong, he was placed at Alfa Romeo.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 f1paul            95.64   0.00  12     3 
  2     0 DutchQuicksilver  95.00   0.00  13    10 
          AVERAGE PICK      94.79   0.00  13       
  3     0 GTA               93.29   0.00  12     6 
  4     0 Starchild         92.36   0.00  13     9 
  5     0 KWSN - DSM        92.00   0.00   9    13 
  6     0 Grayson           91.64   0.00  13    11 
  7     0 Marklar           91.21   0.00  11     4 
  8     0 M2000-5           90.79   0.00  11    15 
  9     0 noikeee           86.86   0.00  11    14 
 10     0 Makarias          85.86   0.00  10    12 
 11     0 rodlamas          84.36   0.00  10     2 
 12     0 Brawn BGP 001     83.79   0.00  10     5 
 13     0 scheivlak         83.50   0.00   9     7 
 14   + 1 SpaceHorseParty   76.29   0.00  10     1 
 15   - 1 Costaz            74.36 - 3.00   9     8 

The changes are, of course, minimal in the potential standings as well. SpaceHorseParty and Costaz can no longer win this game, assuming there are no changes to the already confirmed drivers or last-minute replacements (e.g. due to injuries).

Update #18: Tsunoda confirmed at AlphaTauri

Earlier this week, AlphaTauri announced that Yuki Tsunoda would join their team in 2021, thus becoming the third rookie on the grid. He has risen through the junior formulae at a swift pace, having graduated from Japanese F4 in 2018, F3 in 2019, and now F2 in 2020. It's therefore not a big surprise that nobody picked him for their 2021 grid – although KWSN - DSM did pick Tsunoda's compatriot Nobuharu Matsushita for a place in AlphaTauri.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1   + 3 M2000-5           81.93 + 5.00  10    15 
  2   + 3 Grayson           80.93 + 5.00  11    11 
  3   - 2 DutchQuicksilver  78.43   0.00  10    10 
  4   - 2 f1paul            78.21   0.00   9     3 
          AVERAGE PICK      78.21   0.00  10       
  5   - 2 Marklar           76.93   0.00   9     4 
  6     0 GTA               75.86   0.00  10     6 
  7     0 Starchild         75.79   0.00  10     9 
  8     0 noikeee           72.64   0.00   9    14 
  9     0 Brawn BGP 001     69.14   0.00   8     5 
 10     0 Makarias          68.43   0.00   8    12 
 11     0 KWSN - DSM        66.86   0.00   7    13 
 12     0 rodlamas          66.07   0.00   8     2 
 13   + 1 SpaceHorseParty   65.57 + 5.00   8     1 
 14   - 1 scheivlak         65.21   0.00   7     7 
 15     0 Costaz            63.64 + 5.00   7     8 

Two players benefit the most: M2000-5 and Grayson. Both of them expected AlphaTauri to pick an unknown (i.e. unpicked) driver, and they receive 5 points for that. This moves them up to 1st and 2nd place in the rankings, with just two seats to go. Tsunoda's selection also helps the last two players in the standings, SpaceHorseParty and Costaz.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1   + 5 Grayson           91.64   0.00  13    11 
  2     0 DutchQuicksilver  89.14 - 5.86  12    10 
  3   + 5 M2000-5           89.14 - 1.65  11    15 
  4   - 3 f1paul            88.93 - 6.71  11     3 
          AVERAGE PICK      88.93 - 5.86  12       
  5   - 2 GTA               87.43 - 5.86  11     6 
  6   - 2 Starchild         86.50 - 5.86  12     9 
  7     0 Marklar           84.50 - 6.71  10     4 
  8   + 1 noikeee           81.00 - 5.86  10    14 
  9   + 1 Makarias          80.00 - 5.86   9    12 
 10   - 5 KWSN - DSM        78.86 -13.14   7    13 
 11     0 rodlamas          77.64 - 6.72   9     2 
 12     0 Brawn BGP 001     77.07 - 6.72   9     5 
 13     0 scheivlak         76.79 - 6.71   8     7 
 14     0 SpaceHorseParty   76.29   0.00  10     1 
 15     0 Costaz            74.36   0.00   9     8 

Biggest change in the potential points comes for KWSN - DSM, who missed out on 14 points for being the only one to pick Matsushita for AlphaTauri. Grayson now leads the potential points standings. Unlike M2000-5, he picked Albon for the vacant Red Bull seat.

Update #19: Pérez confirmed at Red Bull

For the first time in some years, one of the Red Bull seats will be taken by a driver who was not previously affiliated with Red Bull. That driver is Sergio Pérez, the most recent new Formula One winner.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 M2000-5           83.93 + 2.00  10    15 
  2     0 Grayson           82.93 + 2.00  11    11 
  3     0 DutchQuicksilver  80.43 + 2.00  10    10 
  4     0 f1paul            80.21 + 2.00   9     3 
          AVERAGE PICK      80.21 + 2.00  10       
  5     0 Marklar           78.93 + 2.00   9     4 
  6     0 GTA               77.86 + 2.00  10     6 
  7     0 Starchild         77.79 + 2.00  10     9 
  8     0 noikeee           74.64 + 2.00   9    14 
  9     0 Brawn BGP 001     71.14 + 2.00   8     5 
 10     0 Makarias          70.43 + 2.00   8    12 
 11     0 KWSN - DSM        68.86 + 2.00   7    13 
 12     0 rodlamas          68.07 + 2.00   8     2 
 13     0 SpaceHorseParty   67.57 + 2.00   8     1 
 14     0 scheivlak         67.21 + 2.00   7     7 
 15     0 Costaz            65.64 + 2.00   7     8 

Every single player expected him to stay at Racing Point/Aston Martin. Therefore everyone gets 2 points, as he found a seat elsewhere.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1   + 2 M2000-5           89.07 - 0.07  11    15 
  2   - 1 Grayson           88.07 - 3.57  12    11 
  3   - 1 DutchQuicksilver  85.57 - 3.57  11    10 
  4     0 f1paul            85.36 - 3.57  10     3 
          AVERAGE PICK      85.36 - 3.57  11       
  5   + 2 Marklar           84.07 - 0.43  10     4 
  6   - 1 GTA               83.86 - 3.57  10     6 
  7   - 1 Starchild         82.93 - 3.57  11     9 
  8     0 noikeee           77.43 - 3.57   9    14 
  9     0 Makarias          76.43 - 3.57   8    12 
 10   + 2 Brawn BGP 001     76.29 - 0.78   9     5 
 11   - 1 KWSN - DSM        74.86 - 4.00   7    13 
 12   - 1 rodlamas          74.07 - 3.57   8     2 
 13     0 scheivlak         73.21 - 3.58   7     7 
 14     0 SpaceHorseParty   72.71 - 3.58   9     1 
 15     0 Costaz            70.79 - 3.57   8     8 

The confirmed and potential points have nearly converged, as there is only one seat left. Nearly all players would get the most points if Hamilton continued at Mercedes.

At this point, M2000-5 seems like the odds-on favorite to win this game. However, Hamilton's contract is still unsigned, and we have a higher-than-usual chance of a driver skipping the first race of the season due to an illness.