2023 Silly-season

With all drivers set for the 2022 Formula season, we could have a first look at the very interesting silly-season for 2023.

Mercedes

George Russell on a longterm contract as Lewis Hamilton. But I can imagine that Hamilton will retire if he loses out against Russell. Bottas to return or Stroll to move to Mercedes if it comes like that?

Lewis Hamilton (contract to 2023)

George Russell (contract to 2023)

Red Bull

Verstappen on contract until end 2023 but Pérez very in question. Perhaps Gasly to return to Red Bull?

Max Verstappen (contract to 2023)

Gasly? Pérez?

Ferrari

Charles Leclerc (contract to 2024)

Carlos Sainz (contract to 2023)

McLaren-Mercedes

Lando Norris (contract to 2023)

Ricciardo?

Daniel Ricciardo should be out of contract after the coming year. So perhaps he will be replaced.

Alpine-Renault

Esteban Ocon (contract to 2024)

Alonso? Pérez? Piastri?

Will Alonso stay at Alpine? If the car is good I would say yes. If not, no.

Alpha Tauri

Gasly? Albon?

Tsunoda? Lawson? Hauger?

I think one of the drivers will be an experienced driver like Gasly or Albon. The second a young driver. Don't think Tsunoda will stay.

Aston Martin-Mercedes

Stroll?

Vettel? Pérez?

Vettel is the same like Alonso: if the car is good, he will stay. If not, no. Pérez to return perhaps?

Williams-Mercedes

Latifi?

Albon? De Vries? Shwartzman?

I think Latifi is safe because money rules. If Albon will move back to Alpha Tauri, I think a youngster will have the seat.

Alfa Romeo-Ferrari

Valtteri Bottas (contract to 2023)

Zhou? Schumacher?

Not known how long the contract of Zhou last. Schumacher to Alfa Romeo is not impossible.

Haas-Ferrari

Schumacher?

Mazepin? Shwartzman? Sargeant?

I would think Theo Pouchaire is very much in the reckoning at Alfa Sauber (assuming he doesn't tank in his second season of F2)

Sargeant should potentially be on the list at Williams

Edited by krapmeister, 21 November 2021 - 10:34.

My early thoughts for each team. In most cases it isn't about who might go where but the likelyhood of the existing drivers staying.

- Mercedes

Very likely to be Hamilton and Russell but there is a slim chance either could leave. For Hamilton it would be retirement. For Russell it would be if he is blown away and Mercedes decide he isn't going to be their leader post-Hamilton.

- Red Bull

Verstappen a definite. The question is Perez doing enough for the number 2. I think it is not clear even though he had done better than Gasly and Albon. If not, would Gasly get a second chance or would they look outside the program again?

- Ferrari

Can't see any changes here.

- McLaren

Despite the win at Monza Ricciardo has too often been too far off the pace of Norris. If that doesn't change next year I could see him being dropped, especially as he is supposed to be the number 1 and is on a number 1 driver salary.

- Alpine

Any changes would depend on Alonso deciding to call it a day. If that does happen Piastri will get the drive.

-Alpha Tauri

This is an interesting one. If Gasly doesn't get any signs that he is at least under consideration for a return to the senior team, he will need to leave the Red Bull program to further his career. I think he should pursue any opening in other teams from the midfield forward. Tsunoda will need to improve dramatically to have a chance of keeping the seat. Red Bull do have several promising drivers in F2 and F3. I think at least one of them will get a promotion but who gets it will be dependent on 2022 performances. Albon has a chance of returning if Gasly moves on and they decide they want some experience, or if all the youngsters disappoint next year.

- Aston Martin

Similar to Alpine, they only change I could see is if Vettel decides to call it  a day.

- Williams

Latifi's backing will mean he will stay as long as he wants to. The second seat is difficult to predict. What is the arrangement with Red Bull that put Albon in the other seat and could that be extended if necessary. If the seat is available, will they need a pay driver? Will another team come to an arrangement to use the seat as a training ground for one of their juniors?

- Alfa Romeo

I don't see changes likely. Bottas made a big thing about signing a multi year contract. There is obviously Chinese money behind Zhou and I would be surprised if it was only for one year.

- Haas

Again, unlikely to see changes. Mazepin will stay due to money. Mick hasn't looked like a potential superstar so far but his junior career shows a track record of a so-so first year in a new category followed by a stellar second one. 2022 will be the year to really judge the potential he has.

Edited by NewMrMe, 21 November 2021 - 11:32.

I can see Gasly moving to McLaren, Ricciardo moving to Aston Martin (with Vettel retiring), Pourchaire moving to Sauber, Zhou to either Williams or Haas replacing Latifi or Mazepin and two out of Vips, Lawson & Hauger getting the AlphaTauri seats. Perez & Alonso staying put. Piastri stays another year as Alpine reserve driver.

Edited by William Hunt, 21 November 2021 - 21:29.

I wonder if any arrangements will be made for any young drivers to move development programs. There are some drivers who look ready to take the next step forward but are tied to teams with no vacancies to allow them to do so. There are other teams where there could be potential drives available and there aren't any obvious candidates to fill the role if it does become available.

It wouldn't surprise me it at least one driver doesn't try to wriggle out of their current arrangements to advance their career.

Sargent at Williams seems kinda likely. Also Schumacher moving up the ladder from Haas and Gasly leaving the Red Bull squad. Nothing exciting so far. But then there's O'Ward.

With all drivers set for the 2022 Formula season, we could have a first look at the very interesting silly-season for 2023.

Mercedes
George Russell on a longterm contract as Lewis Hamilton. But I can imagine that Hamilton will retire if he loses out against Russell. Bottas to return or Stroll to move to Mercedes if it comes like that?

Lewis Hamilton (contract to 2023)
George Russell (contract to 2023)

Red Bull
Verstappen on contract until end 2023 but Pérez very in question. Perhaps Gasly to return to Red Bull?

Max Verstappen (contract to 2023)
Gasly? Pérez?

Ferrari
Charles Leclerc (contract to 2024)
Carlos Sainz (contract to 2023)

McLaren-Mercedes
Lando Norris (contract to 2023)
Ricciardo?

Daniel Ricciardo should be out of contract after the coming year. So perhaps he will be replaced.

Alpine-Renault
Esteban Ocon (contract to 2024)
Alonso? Pérez? Piastri?

Will Alonso stay at Alpine? If the car is good I would say yes. If not, no.

Alpha Tauri
Gasly? Albon?
Tsunoda? Lawson? Hauger?

I think one of the drivers will be an experienced driver like Gasly or Albon. The second a young driver. Don't think Tsunoda will stay.

Aston Martin-Mercedes
Stroll?
Vettel? Pérez?

Vettel is the same like Alonso: if the car is good, he will stay. If not, no. Pérez to return perhaps?

Williams-Mercedes
Latifi?
Albon? De Vries? Shwartzman?

I think Latifi is safe because money rules. If Albon will move back to Alpha Tauri, I think a youngster will have the seat.

Alfa Romeo-Ferrari
Valtteri Bottas (contract to 2023)
Zhou? Schumacher?

Not known how long the contract of Zhou last. Schumacher to Alfa Romeo is not impossible.

Haas-Ferrari
Schumacher?
Mazepin? Shwartzman? Sargeant?

Regarding the - pardon - old guys, I think a lot depends on how the new cars pan out for their respective teams. I can see VET, ALO and even HAM leave F1, if their cars disappoint. Both VET and ALO bet on the new rules to have a final shot at race wins and I can't see HAM willing to battle it out in the midfield when he can just do whatever he likes, having achieved more then anyone else in the sport (even more if he wins the 2021 WDC).

I can even see STR leaving, as he dosn't strike me as someone who's willing to drive in the midfield just for the sake of driving.

TSU has to improve massivly. I'm surprised it's rather quiet around him - maybe Dr. M's focus on VER's WDC campaign helps.

Edited by r4mses, 22 November 2021 - 01:11.

Honestly feel both rbr and Daniel could do worse than reconnecting. Dan doesn't seem to mind the fundamental way the car behaves and Perez is just not good enough in qualifying.

Interesting point. I think Daniel has too much pride though.

please clarify: When you say "contract to 2023". Does that mean the driver's contract includes the 2023 season?

Edited by markpenske, 22 November 2021 - 20:27.

TSU has to improve massivly. I'm surprised it's rather quiet around him - maybe Dr. M's focus on VER's WDC campaign helps.

It's his rookie season. I don't think it would be appropriate to criticize him.

It's his rookie season. I don't think it would be appropriate to criticize him.

That is fair enough if you could see some improvement and progress, it isn't there sadly.

2023 maybe a year too soon, but if Ferrari are off the pace again next season, Mercedes would have to be all over Leclerc to get a deal ready for replacing Hamilton.

Edited by Calum, 22 November 2021 - 21:25.

2023 maybe a year too soon, but if Ferrari are off the pace again next season, Mercedes would have to be all over Leclerc to get a deal ready for replacing Hamilton.

It's his rookie season. I don't think it would be appropriate to criticize him.

The problem with him is that not only has he not improved but he has gone backwards. I fear next year will be his last. I really wanted to see him do well but to not improve over 20 races is telling.

The problem with him is that not only has he not improved but he has gone backwards. I fear next year will be his last. I really wanted to see him do well but to not improve over 20 races is telling.

He did qualify in the top 10. To be fair, AT have some things work on. Doesn’t seem a good race car. It’s hard to understand how neither car scored points in Qatar or where Gasly vanishes to after qualifying in the top 6 in 15 of the last 20 races.  On qualy form, it's arguably the 3rd best car. On race form, they seem to be absolutely nowhere on most weekends.

Edited by ARTGP, 22 November 2021 - 23:04.

It's all going to depend on who is fast under the new rules and who isn't.

We're all here thinking teams A and B feed C and D who feed E and F, but it might just be B on top next year and it's all different.

Imagine a scenario Red Bull and Mercedes are struggling and Aston and Alpine go to the front. Unlikely I know, but still, possible. Does a driver like Max risk a move to one of those teams, or does he stay loyal to RB in the hopes they'll improve? Would Aston and Alpine be happy enough with declining Vettel and old Alonso as their lead drivers? That's the kind of random scenarios that might be playing out 1 year from now, with any major messing around of the pecking order.

What if Mercedes shoot up way ahead of everyone else again? Does Max starts pushing for Lewis's seat when his contract runs out?

What if in the new cars suddenly suit other drivers and for example Dan starts beating Lando? Do we still think he might want out of McLaren?

So yeah. On paper the lineups seem actually pretty settled, but it's very open because of this big unknown factor.

Predicting 2023 in 2021 is a bit like predicting 2010 in 2008.

And man, 2010 would have seemed crazy in 2008.

Raikkonen out of F1 alltogether.

Honda (Brawn) wins both titles, yet the reigning champion Button leaves for McLaren, while Michael Schumacher himself comes back from retirement to take his place, while the team is being taken over by Mercedes.

Toyota and BMW leave F1 alltogether but we have a bunch of new teams instead nobody has heard about in 2008.

Alonso to Ferrari was the only major move some people would have foreseen.

As for 2023, the equivalent would be like:
Ferrari retiring Leclerc to make a place for Verstappen

Alfa Romeo (in 2022 named Vasseur, but for 2023 taken over by Volkswagen) wins both titles but WDC Bottas decides to leave for Red Bull. He is replaced with Nico Rosberg.

Alpine and Aston Martin leave F1 alltogether but they're replaced with 4 new teams, neither of which is Andretti

not bad, uh?

Edited by Anderis, 22 November 2021 - 23:34.

It's his rookie season. I don't think it would be appropriate to criticize him.

What??? People criticized the hell out of Stroll as a rookie, and he scored a podium. They even attacked how he got the podium. There are many other examples too. It seems rookies are fair game here, what makes Tsunoda special. I do agree with you, but I am surprised to see someone actually say it.

Gasly ? So he can get constantly lapped by Max? Would rather take Perez who can actually win and do podiums and not choke like Gasly. Gasly can be midfield material tho

Gasly actually won in a lesser car than Perez had for his two, and has had much less experience. How many times has he qualified the AT ahead of Perez in the RB this year? I think Gasly is a much better driver than he was during his stay at RB.

Worst part of this silly season is going to be not enough seat for a rookie. Even Piastri is not guaranteed a seat.   

Hamilton retires, Verstappen takes his place, Mercedes messes up 2023 car design. Gasly to win title in the Red Bull.

Alonso back to Ferrari. Joking but has the potential to really be a silly silly season. 

After hearing the latest Ricciardo Beyond the Grid interview I can see him moving to the US and possibly having a home at Indy if he doesn't find his form after next year.

Lando's stock has also plummeted after Russia. He's been absolutely non existent really.

Gasly is probably the keystone to the 2023 roundabout that's most likely to stay on the grid with Alonso and Hamilton potentially exiting.

Alpine, Mclaren or Mercedes all possibilities for Gasly. Don't see Piastri being tied down in a reserve role for more than one season if a main drive is available elsewhere, but can easily see Alonso staying in 2023.

Red Bull rookie influx with Hauger and Lawson. Maybe even Vips. Then there's Pourchaire at whatever Alfa become. I can see Renault influence there if latest rumours come to fruition.

Not enough seats!

Will Lewis really retire or is there ANY possibility of a swansong at Ferrari? Oh it would be magnificent. Maybe they'd release Sainz back to Mclaren or swap to Mercedes.

That would be exciting. I honestly think he'd take Ferrari to a title in an inferior car. 

Edited by danmills, 23 November 2021 - 09:56.

If HAM sees Merc aint the same strong as they have been till now, he will likely think about retiring. There is often a negative publicity associated with too much success in F1. After he wins his 8th title (likely this year or next), I doubt he has any motivation left (unless he wants to add Ferrari to his CV). However, adding Ferrari to your CV in recent era sounds much less prestigious than it was a decade ago.

I am quite sure about two drivers not sitting in their current seats:

- Ricciardo

- Perez

Also someone above wrote Bottas can move back to Merc. That is big NO in my opinion because Bottas is behaving like a "I dont care" employee on a notice period after resignation which indicates bridges are being burnt. I know people will give examples of Alonso returning to Renault/Alpine and Merc but that's different phenomena.

 

 

Lando's stock has also plummeted after Russia. He's been absolutely non existent really.

 

 

only if you don’t actually watch the races 

Aside this weekend which I haven't seen in full yet, hes still not on the same trajectory he was pre Russia. It's a fall from the previous high regardless. 

If Alpine is able to fight for podiums on at least semi-regular basis next year, I think Alonso will stay in hopes of further improvement. He still has the hunger. Vettel is in a similar situation but I think overall he's more likely to retire.

But as others pointed out this is a tricky year to predict anything as 2022 is a big unknown and it could change a lot. So far it's just a whole lot of if's 

Only 3 of the last 16 GP2/F2 champions did not make it to F1... so if Piastri, who looks odds on to win this one and the most impressively for a few years imo doesn't make it, and soon, I'll be amazed. 

It's also surely goodnight to any hopes that Shwartzman might have, considering he's been beaten by teammates 2 years on the trot. there just aren't enough seats in F1 to cater for nearly men. 

Also not convinced Pourchaire is anything special, he's driving for Art who won the title with Russell and NDV recently, that's the barometer, yet he only seems to be a minor upgrade on Lundguard. However I will say, thus far. 

I'm keeping an eye on the "young American" situation as F1 seems focused on growing in North America. With more races there will come more corporate interest and more ways to fund seats for NA drivers. Herta or O Ward seems the obvious candidates. I think O'Ward is dependant on McLaren losing one of its 2 current drivers (as I don't think they'll boot either of them out through choice) whereas Herta could end up literally anywhere if a deal could be done. The 'Mericans really need a stand out youngster to burst through. 

Only 3 of the last 16 GP2/F2 champions did not make it to F1...

And until Piastri, 0 out of 5 rookie GP2/F2 champions did not make it to F1 immediately after their championship season.

 The 'Mericans really need a stand out youngster to burst through. 

Agree. Talent wise Herta probably would be the most likely choice, although I can't say anything bad (or good for that matter) about Logan Sargent. And he is contracted to Williams already. But to make an impression either of them would have to run in an upper-midfield team at least, better of course in a front running one.

Edited by H0R, 23 November 2021 - 10:53.

Aside this weekend which I haven't seen in full yet, hes still not on the same trajectory he was pre Russia. It's a fall from the previous high regardless. 

When you do watch it, you will find that his trajectory was back to its normal high.  Until he was Pirelli'd like several others.

Random predictions that won't happen:

Bottas has a brilliant year at Alfa and joins McLaren for 2023 replacing Ricciardo

Ricciardo leaves F1 completely and joins Indycar

Alonso retires from F1 again after Alpine can't deliver a race winning car next year, replaced by Piastri

Gasly stays with AT, Tsunoda replaced by Lawson after another disappointing season

Pourchaire replaces Bottas at Alfa

With the rule changes for next year it does feel like a key year more teams an drivers than usual. It's plausible to see scenarios which leave Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton retiring at the end of the year if the AMs, Mercs and Alpines are well off the pace. Perez, Gasly, Ocon and Ricciardo are all likely to move teams in some way.

If we get to the first race and it's just Red Bull v Merc again...

With Gasly, I wonder if he and AT have a bit of the Webber/Jaguar thing going? Remember Mark qualifying that POS top 3 every so often and top 5 regularly? Then int he races he would go backwards, fending off guys behind in these mega trains or rely on Trulli to do it for him. Turns out he was able to heat the tyres quickly and this helped in qualifying but really hurt in the race. 

With Gasly, I wonder if he and AT have a bit of the Webber/Jaguar thing going? Remember Mark qualifying that POS top 3 every so often and top 5 regularly? Then int he races he would go backwards, fending off guys behind in these mega trains or rely on Trulli to do it for him. Turns out he was able to heat the tyres quickly and this helped in qualifying but really hurt in the race. 

Well in the Red Bull he didn't really managed to qualify high up. So I don't think it's the samen as Webber had.

With Gasly, I wonder if he and AT have a bit of the Webber/Jaguar thing going? Remember Mark qualifying that POS top 3 every so often and top 5 regularly? Then int he races he would go backwards, fending off guys behind in these mega trains or rely on Trulli to do it for him. Turns out he was able to heat the tyres quickly and this helped in qualifying but really hurt in the race. 

Or a Fisichella thing where you look great in midfield cars but not so hot when you get in one that is competitive. Suppose Perez is also potentially in that category.

Edited by NewMrMe, 23 November 2021 - 15:23.

Well in the Red Bull he didn't really managed to qualify high up. So I don't think it's the samen as Webber had.

Gasly only had 1.5 years of F1 experience when he was dropped in that Red Bull (Albon only half a year even). Gasly will have 5.5 years of F1 experience end of 2022. Having that experience under your belt is a huge factor in F1 and one you completely ignore. Drivers tend to improve the most during their first 3 seasons of F1.

Edited by William Hunt, 23 November 2021 - 16:14.

Pourchaire to Alfa with Zhou and his backing moving across to Williams or Haas

Perez getting the boot from Red Bull after 2yrs and replacing (retiring) Vettel at Aston Martin. 

Red Bull eventually giving Gasly a second chance, at least if he continues to impress at AT.

Piastri replacing Alonso at Alpine - or if Alonso carries on, Ocon. I just don't see how they can't get him in. 

Don't see much else going on unless Lewis decides to call it a day. 

I'm kinda thinking the 2023 Silly Season will be anything but silly. Vettel, Hamilton and Alonso will all choose to stick around, so Merc, Aston Martin and Alpine will stand pat.  Ferrari already has a good pairing, so they will stick with what they have. Ricciardo will have a bounce back season, so McLaren will as well. Alfa have Bottas long term, and will Zou (sorry about the spelling) and his money another year. Nikita and Mick will stay at Haas for the obvious reasons. That leaves Williams as the big question mark, especially if the car improves under the new regs, and Alpha Tauri.

Mercedes:  Hamilton & Russell

Red Bull:  Verstappen & Perez

Ferrari:  Leclerc & Sainz

McLaren:  Norris & Gasly

Alpine:  Alonso & Ocon  (Piastri another year as reserve)

Aston Martin:  Ricciardo & Stroll

Sauber / Alfa Romeo:  Bottas & Pourchaire

Williams:  Albon & Zhou 

AlphaTauri:  Lawson & Vips & Hauger  (one of them as reserve, outsider: Daruvala)

Haas:  Schumacher & Schwartzman

* Vettel retiring, Latifi to IndyCar

Edited by William Hunt, 23 November 2021 - 16:26.

I don't think we can predict that far ahead due to the rule changes next year (as some have already mentioned in this thread).

I mean, it's not out of this World to suggest that McLaren could have some kind of dominant season next year, meaning that they could poach Lewis Hamilton back for a return to his old team in 2023 (contract buy-out) after him being disgruntled with the relationship with GR. I don't think this will happen but it's impossible to predict really.

Piastri is too good to not get a drive in 2023. He is bigger talent in junior categories than Leclerc, Norris or Russell were. And I am pretty sure he will get a drive in F1. I am not sure it will be with Alpine. I wish he drives for Alpine. Or I hope somewhere between now and 2023 season, Alpine has their B team in F1. 

Edited by Neno, 23 November 2021 - 18:07.

No one mentioning O'ward for McLaren

If Ric or Nor leave the team, he's getting that seat

No he's not

No one mentioning O'ward for McLaren

 

If Ric or Nor leave the team, he's getting that seat

Premature, he hasn’t even tested yet

i have ZERO reason to back up this statement but for some stupid reason i feel Alpine is gonna come out of the blocks FLYING next year.