What will Mercedes do in 2022?

I wanted to do this as a poll but could not get it to work for some reason, probably because I've never done it before so don't really know what I'm doing. Anyway, I wanted to ask what people's thoughts are about what Mercedes might do with their drivers in 2022, assuming Lewis wins his 8th title this season? Will they let them race until one of them is more likely to win the title than the other (this is what I hope they will do). Or will they get behind Lewis (or George) right from the start of the season?

If you want a poll, send me the questions and options and I can set it up for you and transfer any posts across.

Youre assuming that Merc will still be the top team under the new regs ...

It all depends doesn't it - are Merc going to be a top team next season? If they are, will there be anybody close to them (if they're out front on their own then they will let them race, if not they might take a more pragmatic approach)?

I think Merc are one of two, maybe three teams, at the front of the grid; I think that actually Russell might night be as close to Lewis as some seem to believe. He will be good but he won't trouble Lewis.

Hard to say really. Depends how Russell gets on. I don't think he can be pigeonholed ibto the number 2 role straight away though. I'm hoping there'll be fireworks.

Hey .... did you notice that both Nepo and Max let themselves down on Sunday? they didnt just lose, they embarrassed themselves. 

Not a good day for challengers .... probably something in the stars.  

Will they let them race until one of them is more likely to win the title than the other (this is what I hope they will do).

Yes.

That's what they've done every single year, and I don't see why it would be any different in 2022.

I don't think that the outcome will be any different to any of the past five years - both Bottas and Russell are excellent drivers but Hamilton is on another level. They will give Russell the chance to prove that he should be the team's number one driver just like they've given Bottas the chance to prove that he can lead the team's charge every year since 2017, but I wouldn't be surprised if Hamilton only takes a few races to demonstrate who the team's most likely title contender is.

Of course, this is all moot unless the 2022 Mercedes is fast enough to be competing for the title but not so fast that Russell is Hamilton's only competitor!

Hey .... did you notice that both Nepo and Max let themselves down on Sunday? they didnt just lose, they embarrassed themselves.

Not a good day for challengers .... probably something in the stars.

Realistically how far back could Mercedes be next year? 4th? 5th at a stretch?

I mean, I'd be interested in how Lewis performs in a backmarker for once in his career, but I'd much rather Russell gets a good car for once in his career.

Realistically how far back could Mercedes be next year? 4th? 5th at a stretch?

I mean, I'd be interested in how Lewis performs in a backmarker for once in his career, but I'd much rather Russell gets a good car for once in his career.

Edited by flyboym3, 06 December 2021 - 20:43.

strange question: nobody knows how teams will do with the new rules

Realistically how far back could Mercedes be next year? 4th? 5th at a stretch?

I mean, I'd be interested in how Lewis performs in a backmarker for once in his career, but I'd much rather Russell gets a good car for once in his career.

Edited by LightningMcQueen, 06 December 2021 - 20:41.

Realistically how far back could Mercedes be next year? 4th? 5th at a stretch?

 

I mean, I'd be interested in how Lewis performs in a backmarker for once in his career, but I'd much rather Russell gets a good car for once in his career.

The first half of 2009 was truly dreadful for McLaren, and that was a year after Lewis won his championship.  With new regulations introduced, a top team can fall a long way down, at least initially.

Did you not watch 2009, it was a shitbox. Watching him vs. Alonso come through was great, and Lewis was usually ahead.

Personally I think Merc will let them race. They will have the same equipment so it'll be down to Russell to qualify ahead and get the favourable strategy.

That was half a season though.  Although Lewis did not sit in a 'dominant' car until 2014.  The answer before that is 20+ wins, 30 poles, one championship and another two that went to the final race.

But I'd be surprised if Merc made the same misstep as McLaren did with the Silver Donkey.  No bad thing though if somebody else leaps to the front like Alpine or McLaren.  I'm sure Merc will still be competitive.

Did you not watch 2009, it was a shitbox. Watching him vs. Alonso come through was great, and Lewis was usually ahead.

Personally I think Merc will let them race. They will have the same equipment so it'll be down to Russell to qualify ahead and get the favourable strategy.

None of it will matter if they don't interpret the aero rules the best.

Did you just start watching racing recently

The first half of 2009 was truly dreadful for McLaren, and that was a year after Lewis won his championship.  With new regulations introduced, a top team can fall a long way down, at least initially.

Come on guys. I mean a truly terrible car. Not a poor start but capable of running up front after a few races.

Thinking about Bottas's gripes about Wolff only ever offering him 12 months with Merc at a time, how long is Russell's contract again?

I go back and forth about George Russell. He's clearly got amazing talent but doesn't seem to be the finished article yet. So Lewis may be able to mentor him, but on the other hand it's very rare that you get beaten by your teammate for a couple of years without some of the shine coming off.

To have an idea on how Russell will go at Mercedes, you just have to take a look for his fall-in in 2020 when Lewis had his Covid infection.
George will cause a lot of drama inside Mercedes, not from the first race, but after a few, it will start. He's that kind of guy. I think the team will implode.

Edited by sniper80, 06 December 2021 - 21:03.

Mercedes have never shown much favouritism towards one driver as long as the other still had a realistic shot at WDC. Hamilton ceded position back to Bottas in Hungary 2017 and Bottas was always allowed to fight Hamilton on equal terms in the early races of the season all the time. The only instance of team orders within first 5-6 races of the season I can recall was Barcelona this year but Bottas was already 37 points adrift in WDC.

As long as Russell can keep it ahead of Hamilton in points or under 25 points deficit, I believe they'll receive equal treatment.

This is the last place I would've expected chess spoilers. I was literally about to hit play on Jerry's analysis as I would close this tab

Sorry (.... but surely you already know the result??) .... anyway, just going through the PGN or even watching analysis does not do this one justice ... see if you can find some time to watch a replay of the whole thing (skip past the opening to when Nepo gets in trouble  .... Nepo was just bizzare ... Caruana was doing his nut over it on the Chess.com commentary. 

Edit - BTW... LH and MV fans were going at in the live chat over at Chess.com during the game .... so there is quite a bit of a crossover between chess and F1 fans.... I would say very similar demographics. 

Edited by jjcale, 06 December 2021 - 21:46.

Hey .... did you notice that both Nepo and Max let themselves down on Sunday? they didnt just lose, they embarrassed themselves.

Not a good day for challengers .... probably something in the stars.

I have a feeling that the rules are quite tight enough and there's no major loopholes that can allow any one team to dominate like in 2014. Also now that Honda have a decent engine alongside Merc and Ferrari/Alpine expected to catch up it'll come down to multiple teams having a competitive car for the championship next year. For sure Mercedes will be there but I think they'll have to not just deal with Red Bull / Ferrari but other teams as well. 

The difference between previous falls from grace is the sheer level of resources and infrastructure Mercedes have created in this near decade of domination. It's very different even compared to Ferrari's most recent reign.

I'd go as far to say even if Mercedes got it very very wrong, there is enough time, money and development at hand to correct it quick enough to reach podium levels for as long as they also have Lewis.

Unless the entire rulebook is turned over, aero regs AND massive radical engine changes from absolute zero all again they're gonna be up there.

Bottas executed his role perfectly. Slotted where he needed to be. Didn't bother Lewis. I think Russell will hit the ground running, maybe not bothering Lewis too much at first, but enough to be a persistent threat in P2 as opposed to P3.

Red Bull need to reset the firmware on Perez over the winter back to VF.1ND1A. And if Alpine are thinking of an Ocon / Piastri future from 2023 I'd be throwing year deals Nando's way before next summer.

Next year is a lottery and extremely hard to tell who will be fastest straight out of the box, Ferrari have been developing their car from early this year and their engine is expected to catchup, it's really difficult to tell what the pecking order will be 

strange question: nobody knows how teams will do with the new rules

The new rules make no difference at all to how Mercedes treat their two drivers.  And that will be the same as always.  Let them race until and unless one is a clear challenger for the WDC.  If Merc isn't in the chase, they will just let them get on with it.  I would like to see Lewis win yet again before he quits but I hope Russell gets plenty of poles and wins too.  Happy days ahead!  (Maybe)

Mercedes will be on the backfoot next year because Ferrari will have the benefit of Haas teaming moving to Maranello so there is wind tunnel time there to 'share' strategically.

Redbull Technologies also have Alpha T wind tunnel time allocation to 'share' strategically with redubull racing..

Both teams usually provide last year parts to Haas/AT, but that isn't going to work next year you see?

This is why I think it's a real tough gig for Merc, they will get out-developed based on sheer wind-tunnel time.

There is Aston Martin - but Merc not integrated into them anything like Ferrar/Haas and Redbull Technologies -> RBR/AT.

Edited by flyboym3, 07 December 2021 - 12:10.

Youre assuming that Merc will still be the top team under the new regs ...

It is a fair assumption as I understood PU is not changing much next year (or is it?). Considering this is true, i cannot imagine how any other design element can undo the power advantage Merc has. So far their only weakness appears is struggling in dirty air which is probably strengthened by the fact Bottas is mediocre in traffic.

The difference between previous falls from grace is the sheer level of resources and infrastructure Mercedes have created in this near decade of domination. It's very different even compared to Ferrari's most recent reign.

I'd go as far to say even if Mercedes got it very very wrong, there is enough time, money and development at hand to correct it quick enough to reach podium levels for as long as they also have Lewis.

Let's just hope they don't get it wrong to the point that they will not be competitive at the front. I am not sure to what extent a team that got it wrong can recover fully. Won't some homologation be in place?

Been away... too depressed by Merc struggles and mistakes. Do we know where Merc spent their tokens in the W12?

Edited by femi, 07 December 2021 - 12:06.

Hopefully win a lot less. 

Well, one things for sure - in pre-season testing they will say how they are in trouble and how much faster Team X is.

Possibly WDC #9 for Lewis. Possibly WCC #9 for Mercedes. They will do George Russell's social media wonders. Roscoe will eat well. 

That's all I can speculate on.

the obvious thing is build a more robust car in case Verstappen ends up in a similar performance window to them.

the obvious thing is build a more robust car in case Verstappen ends up in a similar performance window to them.

the obvious thing is build a more robust car in case Verstappen ends up in a similar performance window to them.

Surely they have already done well enough in that regard! They've got ample experience building a car capable of crashing into RBR cars and still going on to dominate the race. 

Not much resources need to be put in that aspect. 

That was half a season though.  Although Lewis did not sit in a 'dominant' car until 2014.  The answer before that is 20+ wins, 30 poles, one championship and another two that went to the final race.

 

But I'd be surprised if Merc made the same misstep as McLaren did with the Silver Donkey.  No bad thing though if somebody else leaps to the front like Alpine or McLaren.  I'm sure Merc will still be competitive.

This. Excellence is a habit.  I will be shocked if Mercedes comes up with a Silver or Black Donkey.

This. Excellence is a habit.  I will be shocked if Mercedes comes up with a Silver or Black Donkey.

Until it isn't, we forget McLaren were fighting at the very sharp end season in season out for well over a decade.

I can't see Mercedes dropping very far back (if at all). I also cannot see Merc favouring one driver over another until there is very little chance of one of them winning the WDC. They will, of course, always try to maximise the number of WCC points that they score and that may affect the driver strategy during races (not at the start or before, though).

Next year is a lottery and extremely hard to tell who will be fastest straight out of the box, Ferrari have been developing their car from early this year and their engine is expected to catchup, it's really difficult to tell what the pecking order will be

Mercedes presents their "Max-safe" 2022 car...

https://www.majestic...-1-0_1_orig.gif

Looks fast

If they can manage to unlock its potential

Will they keep the black livery? I think it's here to stay.

I imagine they will "let them race"...and see if either comes out on top. There will only be a whiff of team orders if we get late in the season, only one Mercedes driver is in with a shot at the title, and there is real competition from someone else in another team. 

The caveat with such a big change in the rules is that there is always a chance for one of the big teams to mess it up, or a smaller team to do something spectacularly good and spice up the mix. Yes, George is there to learn....but if he does unto Lewis what Lewis did to Fernando....Mercedes will sit back knowing they've found their long term future. 

Until it isn't, we forget McLaren were fighting at the very sharp end season in season out for well over a decade.

100 million fine puts a damper on your R&D.

I know this will sound mean, but I'd love Mercedes to get it wrong and to be down in the pack next season, because it would be fascinating. It's what's always happened - Williams dominate, Williams lose Newey and Renault, Ferrari dominate, Ferrari lose Schumacher and slip back, Red Bull dominate, Red Bull drop off....if Mercedes were able to maintain or extend their domination into 2022, it would be incredibly impressive from their perspective, but God it would be tedious. I don't mind them staying up front - just not maintaining dominance. Please.