Way too early 2022 predictions

Unfortunately I think that 2022 may well be anti-climactic after the season we've had. What I am hoping for is that we see the benefit of the new regulations, i.e. cars racing closely and being able to follow each other.

I can see Merc and Redbull at the front again but who knows who will nail the new regs from the off. Ferrari/Mclaren could well be up there, even Aston Martin.

Edited by SilverArrow31, 13 December 2021 - 11:22.

Would be great if a team other than Merc or Red Bull nailed the car and did a Brawn, but it's very unlikely.

Edited by Radion, 13 December 2021 - 11:24.

All I know is that I expect Ferrari to fight for the wins again. Alpine... I don't even dare to say it out loud. Not yet. 

Edited by Anja, 13 December 2021 - 11:36.

Have mercedes not shifted Ressources already last year to 2022? That's why they were on the back foot this year thought?

That's why I do believe the merc is going to be the car to have again come the new regs...

If Alpine don't perform, they have nowhere to hide. Fernando will not be a happy boy.

With a Red Bull engine the only way that team will be going next season is down the order as they don't have the experience to develop it!  I did hear a little tidbit yesterday that could just be tittle tattle, that the engine in the back of Hamilton's car has some clever new compressor and that is possibly why it was vastly improved since Brazil.  If true, season over!

I think Mercedes will still have an engine advantage. Not sure how Redbull will do with their own engines even if there's a lot of Honda involvement. 

I think predictions for the other end of the grid could be interesting. Haas didn't spend anything this year in order to concentrate all their resources on 2022. Williams were definitely better than Haas this year but fluked into 8th. Will the extra money from 8th place help keep them off the back of the grid? Alfa Romeo had a lot of bother about being sold this year which may have been a distraction, they're bringing in Bottas and a shedload of cash from Zhou so should be a comfortable 7th-8th if not greater.

My gut feeling is Ferrari is going to be a major force. They will likely win many races while RBR/Merc might not be that far behind. The theory that Ferrari's woes dont last very long in modern F1 is kinda true to me.
McLaren will win more races but will probably stay 4th best.

Alpine at best will likely score some more podiums.

Alpha Tauri: I see them slip behind. Williams/HAAS will be where they are.

All in all i also suspect one of VER or HAM will not be in top 3 WDC finishers next year.

If Alpine don't perform, they have nowhere to hide. Fernando will not be a happy boy.

If Alpine and Redbull get it right next year. I wonder how quickly Fernando will stop being Max's biggest fan? If they're fighting on track that could lead to some fireworks. I'd be interested in seeing how Fernando deals with Max in comparison to how Lewis deals with Max. 

Don’t know why but I think Alpine is the dark horse. They said Ferrari started working on their car earlier than others and they could have the best car next year. But something tells me Alonso stayed around for a good reason.

Considering Alonso's timing of last career changes, one can hardly use him as an argument that if he is at some place, he knows something good is coming up. He returned not because he saw potential in Alpine but more like he did not enjoy the off-F1 ventures.

Alpine does not have a satellite team as I said in Alpine thread which could complement them with some data. Merc/RBR have this advantage.

What I hope: Ferrari and McLaren move forward and Mercades fall back and we get an epic Verstappen/Leclerc/Sainz/Norris battle. It's time for the new generation to be allowed to shine.

What I think (and fear will happen): One team will blitz the regulations like in 2009 and 2014, and we'll have a boring season to follow one of the best we've had in years.

Edited by Misk, 13 December 2021 - 11:36.

If Alpine and Redbull get it right next year. I wonder how quickly Fernando will stop being Max's biggest fan? If they're fighting on track that could lead to some fireworks. I'd be interested in seeing how Fernando deals with Max in comparison to how Lewis deals with Max. 

Not different from Hamilton I presume. I can only imagine Russell giving Max a hard time in wheel to wheel racing. VER has appeared as a driver you wouldnt want to involve with in wheel to wheel racing.

Ferrari to pick WCC

WDC fight between 5 drivers

Stroll to win crazy red flagged wet race

Alonso to retire

Haas finally sold to Mazepin

Pirelli to have at least one race with massive tire failures

Latifi leading a race and retiring with car problem

Just for fun's sake I took a quick glance at the starting grid for the 2009 Australian GP and compared it to each team's relative position in the 2008 constructors championship. It would be the equivalent of the following grid in Bahrain:

1. Valtteri Bottas (Alfa Romeo)

2. Guanyo Zhou (Alfa Romeo)

3. Sebastian Vettel (Aston Martin)

4. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

5. Alexander Albon (Williams)

6. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

7. George Russell (Mercedes)

8. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

9. Carlos Sainz (Ferrari)

10. Lando Norris (McLaren)

Eliminated in Q2:

11. Nicolas Latifi (Williams)

12. Sergio Perez (Red Bull)

13. Pierre Gasly (AlphaTauri)

14. Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren)

15. Mick Schumacher (Haas)

Eliminated in Q1:

16. Nikita Mazepin (Haas)
17. Yuki Tsunoda (Alpha Tauri)

18. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) 

19. Fernando Alonso (Alpine)

20. Esteban Ocon (Alpine)

...pretty big performance swing in other words. 

So, given that the above grid has been derived from objective data analysis of historically given facts, I think we can safely assume it to be the most likely scenario until proven otherwise. 

Edited by Rediscoveryx, 13 December 2021 - 11:44.

One team will definitely get it badly wrong. 

Mercedes will be up there right along with Redbull. While Redbull is now its own engine supplier, I believe the deal is for them to use the Honda engine for 2022 (rebadged ofcourse). So the base performance of the engine will still be similar to this year at the very least. How they develop that engine with the IP acquired from Honda is anyone's guess, but I think they will have hired some of the Honda guys and gals along with more experience personnel from other teams in the paddock to progess in that area. The engine development is also frozen until 2025 so I doubt it will be difficult for RBR to manage.

The only thing that may hamper both MB and RBR is that they have had a prolonged title battle and while resources would've switched to 2022, with the budget cap it would've been more restrictive than prior years so we may end up with a surprise considering the likes of Ferrari/McLaren/Apine/Aston have entirely focussed 2021 on the 2022 development. 

The main thing I am hoping for is that we see the benefit of the new regulations, i.e. cars racing closely and being able to follow each other. Different winners other than Mercedes or RBR.

Seriously:

Ferrari are race winners again

Russell gives Hamilton a scare

Verstappen wins an easy WDC

Red Bull win the WCC

McLaren and Alpine win a couple of races each

Aston fail badly

Mick Schumacher's career stays in neutral

Now, for some more left-field ideas:

Max starts shoving everyone onto run off areas as he realises that, providing he stays on the track, it doesn't matter

Lewis, Vettel, Alonso and Bottas retire at the end of the year

Wolff resigns as Mercedes TP during the season and joins Susie in her career

Mazepin actually DOES put someone into hospital, parties afterwards and still gets a free pass

Dorilton sell Williams at the end of the year

Tsunoda wins a GP

Ocon signs for Mercedes following Hamilton's retirement

New aerodynamic regulations do nothing to improve the racing

Ricciardo takes over the personality of Raikkonen

Seriously:

 

Ferrari are race winners again

Russell gives Hamilton a scare

Verstappen wins an easy WDC

Red Bull win the WCC

McLaren and Alpine win a couple of races each

Aston fail badly

Mick Schumacher's career stays in neutral

 

 

Now, for some more left-field ideas:

 

Max starts shoving everyone onto run off areas as he realises that, providing he stays on the track, it doesn't matter

Lewis, Vettel, Alonso and Bottas retire at the end of the year

Wolff resigns as Mercedes TP during the season and joins Susie in her career

Mazepin actually DOES put someone into hospital, parties afterwards and still gets a free pass

Dorilton sell Williams at the end of the year

Tsunoda wins a GP

Ocon signs for Mercedes following Hamilton's retirement

New aerodynamic regulations do nothing to improve the racing

Ricciardo takes over the personality of Raikkonen

I'm onboard with all of these. Especially the final one. That would be epic.

Just for fun's sake I took a quick glance at the starting grid for the 2009 Australian GP and compared it to each team's relative position in the 2008 constructors championship. It would be the equivalent of the following grid in Bahrain:

 

1. Valtteri Bottas (Alfa Romeo)

2. Guanyo Zhou (Alfa Romeo)

3. Sebastian Vettel (Aston Martin)

4. Charles Leclerc (Ferrari)

5. Alexander Albon (Williams)

6. Lewis Hamilton (Mercedes)

7. George Russell (Mercedes)

8. Lance Stroll (Aston Martin)

9. Carlos Sainz (Ferrari)

10. Lando Norris (McLaren)

 

Eliminated in Q2:

11. Nicolas Latifi (Williams)

12. Sergio Perez (Red Bull)

13. Pierre Gasly (AlphaTauri)

14. Daniel Ricciardo (McLaren)

15. Mick Schumacher (Haas)

 

Eliminated in Q1:

16. Nikita Mazepin (Haas)
17. Yuki Tsunoda (Alpha Tauri)

18. Max Verstappen (Red Bull) 

19. Fernando Alonso (Alpine)

20. Esteban Ocon (Alpine)

 

...pretty big performance swing in other words. 

 

So, given that the above grid has been derived from objective data analysis of historically given facts, I think we can safely assume it to be the most likely scenario until proven otherwise. 

Just goes to show for newer F1 fans that new rule sets can lead to huge changes in the competitive order.

Mercedes will 100% still be up there competing for the championship

Ferrari and Alpine will come out with the most 'developed' cars initially, but Alpine's will be a massive diva that only Alonso can tame

Red Bull will start slightly on the back foot, and won't be capable of winning races initially 

Aston Martin screw it up badly and are essentially a backmarker

McLaren will have a surprisingly average car and languish in the midfield 

Alfa Romeo will have a surprisingly completive car and be able to fight for regular points 

Williams are back to the worst team on the grid

I'm onboard with all of these. Especially the final one. That would be epic.

I wouldn't want all of them to happen, but I just thought it would be fascinating for Ricciardo to become the media-hating guy who says almst nothing.

New aero regs actually work and cars can follow each other through most corners....drivers aren't used to this and crash a lot because they've lost the ability to have fair fights over several laps.

Mercedes nail it and Lewis wins his 8th title with four races to go. 

Seb retires at the end of another season with a few highlights but no consistency - as much down to Aston as himself

RBR bleat and scream and threaten to leave if they don't ace the new regs

Edited by absinthedude, 13 December 2021 - 12:09.

Ricciardo takes over the personality of Raikkonen

Now THAT is what I would love to see.

Red Bull get it wrong, but it doesnt matter because Masi fixes every race to ensure Max wins

Hope: several competitive teams, close racing, multi-way title fight.

Expectation: one team nails the new rules and runs away with the titles. 

What would make a better Drive to Survive season? Max going on to win his 2nd title, or the multi-champion dethrones and needs to prove that he is the real champion. We've seen this movie before, plus they can't rob Hamilton 2 seasons in a row, so if it's close it can be manipulated to give Hamilton the title

Mercedes totally exhausted from the later half of 2021 races and Källenius doesn't sign the gigantic engine costs and budget and Merc ends up midfield.

Ferrari and Alpine aces the rules and Sainz is WDC with Alonso as runner up.

Red Bull in third place, also exhausted.

I think Mercedes will continue the form they have shown since Brazil. No one will be able to compete with their engine.

I hope Russell can pose some challenge to Lewis.

I've thought of a way to win the 2022 world championship. Just build a tank. Doesn't need to be the quickest, just fast enough to more or less keep up with the pack. It goes like this :

1. Qualify 20th

2. In the run to the first corner, just don't brake at all. There will be carnage, 16 DNFs at turn one.*

3. Continue in last place until the others have to take tyre stops from all that 'going round corners quickly' that is so unnecessary. Then

4. Repeat the exercise on the remainder of the field one at a time, as they attempt to re-pass after their pitstops.

5. Once you are the only surviving runner, take your pitstop for fresh tyres at leisure.

6. Leap up onto the podium to claim your victory (and fastest lap bonus point!)

7. Repeat x 20 or as many times as is necessary to win the championship

*Maybe even try the "Grosjean" and take a shortcut across the grass so that you can T-bone the guy in 6th place, which should wipe out the bulk of the others behind.

What 2009 and 2014 have taught me, no matter how hard you try, you won't get a lot of things right when you try to predict them months in advance.

So I'll just limit myself to a few small predictions:

- Haas will not be 0.5 secs behind the rest anymore. They'll be at least on par with a few other teams.

- There will be at least one pecking order change most people would have not foreseen.

- At least one of Red Bull and Mercedes will drop out of top2.

These are the only ones that came to my mind by now. I don't dare to say anything more specific.

Ferrari to pick WCC

WDC fight between 5 drivers

Stroll to win crazy red flagged wet race

Alonso to retire

Haas finally sold to Mazepin

Pirelli to have at least one race with massive tire failures

Latifi leading a race and retiring with car problem

Bolded one doesn't count as prediction. More like history lesson.

Fernando Alonso WDC 2022.

Would like to see it go back to Ferrari vs McLaren, with Alpine in the mix.

I would like to see Aston Martin up there, but I think they've lost their fire and will never reach the heights of top 3 again. 

Expect Mercedes to still be up there, they have too many resources and had 2019-2020 all sown up with no competition, so they most likely have had a head start on their rivals.

Fernando Alonso WDC 2022.

I really hope not honestly. Alonso, Vettel and Hamilton have been a huge part F1 for so long and served the sport amazingly. When they are gone I'll miss them a lot, but I'd be happy if none of them won another WDC again. It's time for the new generation to be allowed to shine. Alonso deserved a 3rd World Title but sadly that time has passed. There are too many new exciting drivers on the grid now.

Hope for Ferrari vs Alpine. These are the two works teams who focused on 2022 early on whereas Red Bull and Merc were embroiled in a title battle. A bit like how 2008 ended with Mclaren and Ferrari fighting for the WDC and then suffering in 2009. 

Edited by sladealonso, 13 December 2021 - 13:06.

Edited by NewYorkF1, 13 December 2021 - 13:13.

Mercedes will dominate as if 2021 never happened. 

Seriously:

 

Ferrari are race winners again

Russell gives Hamilton a scare

Verstappen wins an easy WDC

Red Bull win the WCC

McLaren and Alpine win a couple of races each

Aston fail badly

Mick Schumacher's career stays in neutral

 

 

Now, for some more left-field ideas:

 

Max starts shoving everyone onto run off areas as he realises that, providing he stays on the track, it doesn't matter

Lewis, Vettel, Alonso and Bottas retire at the end of the year

Wolff resigns as Mercedes TP during the season and joins Susie in her career

Mazepin actually DOES put someone into hospital, parties afterwards and still gets a free pass

Dorilton sell Williams at the end of the year

Tsunoda wins a GP

Ocon signs for Mercedes following Hamilton's retirement

New aerodynamic regulations do nothing to improve the racing

Ricciardo takes over the personality of Raikkonen

If Ferrari are race winners again, then it seems unlikely that RBR would snatch the WCC crown since Ferrari have the better driver pair.

I do expect a lot from Ferrari, their new windtunnel and simulator seems to work very well. For the first time their updates worked as predicted, they are on the right track, are confident to have a very strong engine, started working on their 22 car very early and have the best driver pairing.

Mercedes will be spot on as always so i expect a Ferrari vs Mercedes battle with Alpine as the dark horse, have a feeling RBR will miss. Would be great to have Alonso back at the front.

Edited by oli4, 13 December 2021 - 13:32.

Season over. Roll on 2023.