Way too early F1 2023 predictions

So I did a similar thread last year regarding everyone's way too early 2022 predictions, and I thought it would be fun to do something similar this year as well.

 

Just a light-hearted thread to get some discussion going.

 

Whether you want to throw your championship standigs in, or even some more specific predictions.

 

They're always fun to look back on in 12 months time.

Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes each win at least 5 gp's.

Verstappen win title nr3 and does a Rosberg, retiring on the spot.
He starts his own Virtual racing team.

McLaren finds out RIC wasn't the problem and still is an average midfield car.

Alonso complains about Aston Martin

Haas moves back to the back of the grid

Williams moves up and finishes ahead of Haas, Aston, Alpha Tauri and McLaren.

Red Bulls throws the biggest end of year party ever. Sends Bill to other teams. They all go over budget and are being penalized for 2024

WDC

Verstappen

Leclerc

Hamilton

Russel

Perez

Sainz

Gasly

Alonso

Norris

Magnussen

 

WCC

Red Bull

Mercedes

Ferrari

Alpine

Aston Martin

McLaren

Haas

Alpha Tauri

Alfa Romeo

Williams

I would say the top 3 teams will largely be in the same order they finished the season in Abu Dhabi in. Mercedes will start closer but still be third best, Ferrari will produce a good car again and be similar to Red Bull on pace at the start of the season.

 

Aston Martin will take a big step and be one of the best in the midfield along with Alpine. McLaren will languish slightly behind although Norris will drag it into good results.

 

The midfield will be tighter than ever behind, with no clear backmarker. Haas will probably start well again but slip back as the season progresses. 

 

The midfield in general will be a bit closer to the front (hopefully) but none of them will be able to properly challenge the front teams yet.

 

 

Piastri will be fairly poor at McLaren and struggle similarly to Ricciardo. Sargeant will do surprisingly well at Williams however and challenge Albon. De Vries will beat Tsunoda and effectively end his career at AT.  

WDC:
 

1) Sargeant

2) Albon

3) Hulkenberg

 

WCC:

1) WIlliams

2) Ferrari

3) Haas

 

You never know how this will turn out.

WDC:
 

1) Sargeant

2) Albon

3) Hulkenberg

 

WCC:

1) WIlliams

2) Ferrari

3) Haas

 

You never know how this will turn out.

So that's a 50p bet on the outsiders?  Good move!

 

Is it possible to come third in the WDC without troubling the podium?

Hulkenberg will win a race.

- Red Bull remains the best team

- Mercedes jumps Ferrari for 2nd best, Ferrari not as competitive as in 2022

- Williams remains last

 

I don't know, I can't think of anything more for now.

Mercedes dominates

Lewis wins #8

 

(One can dream, can one not?)

Max will win the WDC even sooner as Ferrari, Mercedes and Perez trade 2nd and 3th places every race while Max wins.

Williams will make a step forward, just like Alfa Romeo and Aston Martin.

At 3/4 of the season Mercedes will make a jump and will be winning races on merit, But Max will already be WDC and RB WCC.

 

WDC:

1. Verstappen

2. Hamilton

3. Leclerc

4. Russell

5. Alonso

6. Sainz

7. Perez

8. Bottas

9. Norris

10. Gasly

 

WCC:

1. Red Bull

2. Mercedes

3. Ferrari

4. Aston Martin

5. McLaren

6. Alpine

7. Alfa Romeo

8. Alpha Tauri

9. Williams

10. Haas

Mercedes outpace Redbull (just). Russell beats Hamilton to the WDC despite claims of Hamilton being 'more interested' when his car can fight for wins.

 

Verstappen finishes a very close 3rd.

 

Redbull announce Ricciardo to replace Perez for '24.

 

Alonso shows his frustrated side again after trundling around in the AM.

 

Ferrari show glimmers of pace with a couple of wins but ultimately finish behind Mercedes and Redbull.

 

 

Probably a more realistic prediction: Max WDC again, although Mercedes will prove to be much more trouble to them than in '22. Ferrari in the mix too. It could potentially be an exciting battle between the three teams.

Edited by IrvTheSwerve, 07 December 2022 - 11:25.

I think Ferrari will get it together next year and Leclerc will be champion.

I think Ferrari will get it together next year and Leclerc will be champion.

 

The sad thing is, my natural reaction to this post was to laugh out loud.

 

I predict that Mercedes will give RB a harder time than this year, but Max will eventually win his 3rd title, with Ferrari being the third force again.

Ferrari come out of the box fast but fade away. Leclerc looks like a threat for the first five or six races. 

 

Mercedes get their sh!t together by Monaco

 

Aston Martin take a step forward and from mid-season are podium contenders

 

The FIA are forced to axe half the sprint races

 

Nico Hulkenberg doesn't trouble the podium. Nor does KMAG

 

Max wins his third in a row and people speculate he'll retire, but he doesn't.

 

We don't hear from Seb

 

Andretti Global is finally given the green light to join in 2024 after MBS finds a wad of cash behind the drainpipe at FIA HQ

 

Similarly the mystery Hong Kong billionaire is granted an entry around the same time the FIA fills it's $20 million gap and pays off the inventor of the halo. These occurrences are all coincidences. 

I'll try to put a serious one in:

 

- Red Bull starting off as favourites

- Perez to slowly drown in the wake of Verstappen's speed

- Mercedes getting closer and fighting for regular wins. Yet not on the same level as Red Bull. Perhaps later during the season they are on par

- Ferrari having the faster car/engine yet again, but no results to show for

- Haas to have its best season till date due to said engine and experienced drivers

- McLaren to disappoint

- Alpine will implode more like its a French overcooked soufflé

- Piastri to be off the pace compared to Lando

- Aston Martin to surprise

- Tsunoda's last season

- De Vries to surprise

- Alfa Romeo to battle with Williams for last

- Williams resurges closer to the midfield pack due to a strong driver line up and a better car, but will still end up last

The FIA will come to finally realise that everyone hates the sprint races and cancels all the currently planned six (yes that's right six) sprint races for 2023.

 

https://www.autospor...-baku/10408841/

Edited by owenmahamilton, 07 December 2022 - 11:42.

So that's a 50p bet on the outsiders?  Good move!

 

Is it possible to come third in the WDC without troubling the podium?

 

I did wonder about this over the last few days so I ended up doing some maths on past championships and if we use the current points system where it's 12 points per 4th place (+- a bit for fastest laps if we're being generous) then finishing 4th in every race of each season would put you: (I am being moderately lazy here and not adjusting any of the other results as a result of this so it's not entirely accurate, sorry...)

5th in 2010 + 2011 
3rd in 2012 + 2013

so I would assume it's possible to finish up there even with Hulkenberg's exemplary record intact   
 

Ferrari have such a good base for their car, and apparently have made strides on the engine, so I can see them challenging - surely even Ferrari will have learned from their mistakes. If Sainz cuts the mistakes he will be right in the mix with Charles, but I think Charles will be an angry man next year and will pull well clear of his teammate. 

 

You cannot discount Red Bull because they were streets ahead in 2022, but the development time limits will hurt them. However, Max is just on another level, so he will be in the mix all season and probably bag another 8+ wins. Perez will sadly win none (not helped by Danny breathing down his neck), or get lucky in a chaotic street race. 

 

Mercedes are tricky to judge. They clearly were understanding their zero sidepod package by the end of 2022, but it still retained weaknesses. They can either stick with it, but still be draggy at times and have narrow set-up windows, which will cost them in a title fight. Or they can switch to the more popular Red Bull-style sidepod set up, but be playing catchup again on understanding them. Thus my prediction is they will be in third again, but pick up 3-5 wins. Russell will finish just ahead of Hamilton again (if not swayed by reliability), having learned a lot in 2022 from the weekends he was behind. 

 

So my prediction is Mercedes 4 wins, Ferrari 8 wins, a midfield team getting a lucky win, and Red Bull/Max the rest. The closer teammates of Ferrari will help Max get the title 2-3 rounds from the end. 

 

As for the midfield, Alpine will be technically better but will be let down slightly by the drivers. On the other hand, McLaren will have a solid but not spectacular car yet it will be elevated by the drivers, thus McLaren will pip fourth from Alpine in 5th. 

 

Aston will find a lot of speed and finish 6th. 

 

I think Alfa will have an eye on their Audi future and drop the ball a bit, meaning they will battle Williams for 9th/10th. That leaves Alpha Tauri ansd Haas to fight over 7th. Both those battles will be close. 

Mercedes dominates

Lewis wins #8

 

(One can dream, can one not?)

 

I'll never understand why anyone wants to see someone "dominate". I understand having a favourite driver, but by definition, any season that has been dominated is usually one that has been fairly dull and predictable. Would you not rather see your favourite prevail at the end of a year-long close and exciting battle instead? 

My predictions last year sucked, so please ignore the next few paragraphs and make a cup of tea instead. It's posted purely for my own vanity.

I don't think the cost cap stuff is going to hold Red Bull back. I think their base level going into 2023 is so insanely high that they could basically do anything and Verstappen will still be the favourite. We all hope they're pegged back but I doubt they will be, at least not much.

I think Ferrari's position near the top of the tree is far more precarious. The stuff about the engine sounds very encouraging, but I don't see them putting up any more of a season long challenge than they did this year. Mercedes, on the other hand, I think will re-establish themselves as clearly the second best, even if getting back on top of Red Bull takes longer. I'm relying on Mercedes to make the season exciting, something I never thought I'd say.

I think Nico Hulkenberg will struggle for speed and points after his three seasons out. Not everyone's an Alonso or even Kimi. I'm not convinced Hulk will work out. I can see Kevin Magnussen beating him quite comfortably.

I think AlphaTauri will REALLY miss Gasly. De Vries was flavour of the month after Monza but this is the real test.

I'd expect most things to remain fairly static really. I'd say Aston Martin are a good bet to make a step forward and Alpine to take a step back. And not even so much because of their driver swap - because 2022 was a bit of a blip for Aston after two years with the pink/green Mercedes, and they really developed the 2022 car into a good one from a REALLY low starting point, and Alpine just seem a little bit all over the place and have lost the Alonso factor.

The sad thing is, my natural reaction to this post was to laugh out loud.

I predict that Mercedes will give RB a harder time than this year, but Max will eventually win his 3rd title, with Ferrari being the third force again.

What’s the point of having a way too early prediction if you’re just going to say it’ll be the same as this year?

I do genuinely think that the new rules will prevent the same order happening year in, year out.

I'll never understand why anyone wants to see someone "dominate". I understand having a favourite driver, but by definition, any season that has been dominated is usually one that has been fairly dull and predictable. Would you not rather see your favourite prevail at the end of a year-long close and exciting battle instead? 

I have actually never experienced my favourite team/driver dominating but I think I wouldn't mind. Close and exciting battles are good for neutral fans but it means some setbacks and nervous moments for everyone involved. As a person with a very low tolerance for adrenaline, I think I may prefer my favourites winning in a dominant fashion. Also close battles threaten scenarios that will leave all sides dissatisified, like the 2021 Abu Dhabi finale, for example. Or give fuel to naysayers to construct narratives like "they only won because an unfair thing had happened then and then". etc.
 

Edited by Anderis, 07 December 2022 - 12:46.

I'll never understand why anyone wants to see someone "dominate". I understand having a favourite driver, but by definition, any season that has been dominated is usually one that has been fairly dull and predictable. Would you not rather see your favourite prevail at the end of a year-long close and exciting battle instead? 

 

No, I want my man to DOMINATE and HUMILIATE the field.

I think Mercedes will be back and it will be a heated battle between Max, Lewis and Russel. Lot's of controversies within the Mercedes team. Ferrari will only make occasional  appearances on the podium.

I think Mercedes will be back and it will be a heated battle between Max, Lewis and Russel.

 

Max, Lewis and Russell constantly tangle with each other throughout the year...leaving Checo to win the WDC...which is slightly awkward as Redbull and Ferrari had agreed during the summer break to swap Checo and Leclerc, in light of Charles getting really disheartened by Ferrari's constant F ups.

 

Ferrari produce a dominant car for 24 and 25, Checo retires a 3xWDC.

I think Ferrari will get it together next year and Leclerc will be champion.

Ferrari will have disastrous year. Leclerc will use a performance clause in his contract to leave.

I have actually never experienced my favourite team/driver dominating but I think I wouldn't mind. Close and exciting battles are good for neutral fans but it means some setbacks and nervous moments for everyone involved. As a person with a very low tolerance for adrenaline, I think I may prefer my favourites winning in a dominant fashion. Also close battles threaten scenarios that will leave all sides dissatisified, like the 2021 Abu Dhabi finale, for example. Or give fuel to naysayers to construct narratives like "they only won because an unfair thing had happened then and then". etc.
 

 

As opposed to them saying that they'd only won due to having a massively dominant car?    

As opposed to them saying that they'd only won due to having a massively dominant car?

The other scenario is way more toxic, Than having a dominant car...

A 3 way fight between Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes with Max winning his 3rd in a row. Ferrari will be too late to nominate Leclerc as their nr 1 driver. At Mercedes Lewis and George take too many points from each other to be in contention for the WDC.

 

The Hulk will score his first podium.

My way too early prediction will be that there is a lot of potential for intra-team drama at the front end of the grid next year and at least one of the following explodes dramatically:

 

• Red Bull has got a Perez/Ricciardo situation and budget cap pressure where there was once team harmony

• Ferrari will be under new management

• Mercedes has a ferocious Hamilton/Russell battle in which the stakes will likely be raised

• Piastri could upset the Norris applecart at McLaren

• Alpine has a pairing that evidently doesn't get on well

• Aston Martin will now be under pressure from Alonso to perform

 

And amongst all this were the difficulties inflation presented to each team in staying under the cap, making mid-season controversy likely. So even if one team storms off into the distance I expect the off-track drama to be in full swing next year—the surprise to me would be if it somehow isn't.

 

(Surprisingly, I've decided to leave Haas out of this because if they're to be believed, Hulk and K-Mag are good mates now—when they met one another as teammates for the first time, Hulk apparently opened their partnership by greeting K-Mag with "Suck my balls!" and they both had a laugh over it. Both also admit to having Serious Dad Energy now and say their dynamic is totally different and they're getting along great. Irony points here scored early and expecting this to be the exception that proves the rule for intra-team drama.)

Mercedes have a very fast but unpredictable car

Hamilton has mental breakdown mid season as he is soundly beaten by Russell

Red Bull are slightly slower, but have a more reliable allrounder

Ferrari have a monster engine that breaks down every 2nd race

Ferrari hire back Binotto to fix the engine department

Leclerc clearly finishes ahead of Sainz, announces he leaves the team after 23 for Mercedes

Alpine fumble the ball again and leave the two french to crash into eachother regularly in the midfield

Alpha Tauri get back to the front of the pack and score 1 or 2 podiums in high attrition races

Perez falls out with Marko, Ricciardo takes over from Belgium onwards, De Vries goes to RB in 24

Aston Martin create a RB18 clone but cannot hit the right window in most races, despite that, Alonso wins 1 race on merit when they do get the everything right

Haas is at the back of the grid again, despite new sponsorships

Williams and McLaren will regularly battle for Q3

Williams buld very narrow concept car that is a rocket on high speed courses, but a nightmare everywhere else, score 2 poles

 

Well, I expected Merc to dominate 2022, which shows I have probably zero understanding of F1. However I expect close battle between RBR and Merc for 2023. We'll see whether I would be closer to the truth.

This is a super thread!  Here's my ten penneth!

 

Abu Dhabi 2, this time it is really personal!

Ferrari spend the season thinking it is panto, many more team members careers end up behind them.

Alonso calls the Aston an F2 car as it languishes behind the Alpines all season

Gasly and Ocon get into a fist fight, James Hunt style!

Charles finally loses his patience with Ferrari and walks...to McLaren

Lando loses his patience with McLaren and walks...to Red Bull

Alonso forms the Spanish dream team at Ferrari!

Yuki is shown the door by Spa and the next Junior off the rank is given their AT chance.

Albon has blonde, red, blue and green hair!

Las Vegas turns into the most absurd race in history!

 

Las Vegas turns into the most absurd race in history!

 

I predict this will definitely happen. Off track it will be full of vacuous 'slebs and non-'slebs with too much money and no sense, too many bright lights and many distractions from the actual track action, not to mention not being able to hear any grid interviews due to interminably loud music by someone like Timmy and his bloody Trumpet. On track it will be chaos as the tyres won't cope with the cold, and we see drivers barely able to keep it on the road for three days. And all weekend there will be countless complaints from the true F1 fans who turn up about the costs and views. 

Hoping for what I call “CART Competitiveness”, I’d like to see at least four drivers in the hunt at the last race, at least 8 GP winners, and I’d like the final standings to look something like this, W indicating a race winner;

1. Leclerc (W)
2. Russell (W)
3. Verstappen (W)
4. Hamilton (W)
5. Norris (W)
6. Alonso (W)
7. Sainz (W)
8. Perez
9. Piastri
10. Albon (W)
11. Bottas
12. de Vries
13. Hulkenberg
14. Gasly
15. Magnussen
16. Zhou
17. Sargeant
18. Tsunoda
19. Ocon
20. Stroll

Mercedes dominates

Lewis wins #8

 

(One can dream, can one not?)

 

This is not unrealistic. .... Merc did dominate for 6 of the past 8 years .... so they are capable of it. 

Checo bails by Silverstone.

Alonso has a Grand Slam in Spain. Fuel sample reveals tannerite, and harking back to old-school NA$CAR, Ferd keeps the trophy but loses the points. Aston is fined 10M USD, Daddy Stroll says 'what€v$'.  

Hulk, MAG and BOT finish 16-18th.  In every race, and in the points table. No one is surprised or disappointed.

Andretti Global run FP1 at Vegas, Mario at the wheel.  As for the race, Lance Stroll wins by switching to wets as sleet falls in the last twenty laps.

De Vries gets a podium at Zandvoort, punters run out of smokebombs.

Herta wins the Vanderbilt Cup, scoots to Andretti Global, replaced by Checo.

Max wins title, HAM 2nd.  

Edited by eibyyz, 07 December 2022 - 17:30.

Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton will start the season as the two dominant drivers, but will get in so many incidents in the first half of the season because they are trying to exert dominance over each other that George Russell will take the lead of the championship sometime mid-season. Verstappen will then realise he is being too aggressive and will dominate the second half of the season to win the championship comfortably. Russell will pip Hamilton for second due to some bad luck for Hamilton at the end, while Ferrari will win just two races, and Perez will also struggle. Norris will soundly beat Piastri, Ocon and Gasly will be extremely evenly-matched, Hulkenberg will beat Magnussen, Tsunoda will beat De Vries. The pecking order will be largely the same.

I predict a falling out between Hamilton and Russel as the Merc regains competitive form.

 

AM takes 4th in the constructors

Red Bull will be even more dominant than in 2022 and will win both championships with ease. Perez will only win one race and will be replaced first by Ricciardo and then Tsuyoda.

Merc will be improved but still no competition for Red Bull. Russell will become the lead driver. Hamilton will finally call it a day after 2023.

Ferrari will be 1994/1995 revisited. On occasion fast but a cesspool otherwise. At least one driver will leave the team after falling out with the head honchos. Probably Sainz.

Alpine? Ocon and Gasly will be regular contenders for the podium but will punch each other at Monaco at latest.

McLaren will be kings of Instagram and Twitter once again but will be even less competitive than in 2022 and fall back in the pecking order even more. Norris will finally leave for Merc to partner Russell in 2024. 

Aston Martin will be the next victim of Alonsos tempers. The car will be quite good actually and sometimes even fight with Merc and Ferrari. Alonso will sign for Ferrari for 2024.

Alfa Romeo will be in shambles without Vasseur or Audi. Bottas gets desillusioned and signs with Rahal Letterman Lanigan for 2024.

Alpha Tauri will be essentuially invisible thoughout the season. And for my crystal ball as well.

At Haas Hülkenberg still won't suck Magnussen's balls but will get humiliated sporting wise. The car actually will be quite fast on particular tracks thanks to a beefy Ferrari engine.

Williams will have some serious money input or even a Porsche partnership and will slowly rise from the ashes. The drivers will often be Q3 participants, racing successes won't come this season.

Edited by H0R, 07 December 2022 - 17:45.

Ferrari makes their engine super powerfull and reliable with a fix that causes FIA to investigate. Suddenly, Ferrari drops to the far end of the grid and stays there with Haas and Alfa Romeo.

Adrian Newey tinkers with the Red Bull in his shed and the RB starts the season by being 10/10ths faster than everybody else, winning the season in September.

Hamilton is clearly the fastest in the new and improved Mercedes but due to a misalignment of the stars, El Nino, and an unexpected reappearance of the star of Bethlehem, Russel beats him to 2nd in the WDC. Mercedes 2nd in the WCC.

The McLaren is so slow that Norris keeps falling asleep at the wheel, allowing a resurgent Aston Martin to reach third place in WCC with Alonso. Lance Stroll destroys all the cars in the FIAs parking lot, claiming he never saw them and gets banned from F1 for life.

Alpine blows up in 20 different ways during the season, going nowhere.

Andretti buys Alpha Tauri.

Williams end up 5th in the championship without F1 TV noticing, because the cameras are busy showing a cute kid with a funny hat on row 67.

Red Bull wins every race except for two. For those two races, Verstappen blames his team and Horner says Verstappen is correct and they let him down personally.

All teams except for Haas, Sauber and Williams go over budget but FIA does nothing to fix the regulations.

Alonso blames everyone.

6. Alonso (W)
20. Stroll

I think this may be a little over the top...
 

Some of these remind me of "Old Mo's Almanac" from Autosport back in the day! Good fun.

My 2023 predictions, as with last year based on my instinct:

 

Red Bull and Verstappen will continue to be the team and driver to beat, but they won't win as many races as I expect Mercedes to be more competitive than last year (not to mention more competent than Ferrari last year). Perez will win one race (at one of the street circuits) but won't finish in the top four of the championship

 

At Ferrari, Charles Leclerc will continue to largely outpace Carlos Sainz and further add to his impressive tally of pole positions, although he will again qualify on pole more often than he wins. Leclerc will again narrowly take second place in the WDC (see below).

 

Hamilton and Russell will be relatively evenly matched over the season. Mercedes will a lot more competitive from the beginning of the year though so both drivers will win multiple races and finish above Perez in the championship. They will take second place in the constructors ahead of Ferrari, but Leclerc will finish ahead as he will regularly beat Sainz whereas the Mercedes drivers will take points off each other.

 

At Alpine, Esteban Ocon will continue to deliver respectable if not outstanding performances, putting him ahead in the battle of the two French drivers.

 

Lando Norris will continue to impress for McLaren and will score enough points to ensure fourth place in the WCC as he outperforms both Alpine drivers. Piastri's level of performance will be comparable to Ricciardo in 2021 (albeit not a race winner as McLaren will not be competitive enough), I predict he will finish around 11th in the WDC.

 

Alfa Romeo Sauber will be mostly anonymous, more like their 2019-21 performances than the first half of last year. Zhou will be closer to Bottas in points this year but the team will finish near the bottom of the standings.

 

Aston Martin should improve with Fernando Alonso (more motivated than Vettel) comfortably beating Stroll. Alonso will finish in the top 10 of the championship but Stroll won't score enough points for the team to finish higher than sixth.

 

Haas won't be quite as quick as last year, but Hulkenberg will get better results than Mick Schumacher and therefore the team will finish in a similar position. Magnussen will be the stronger of the two drivers however.

 

At Alpha Tauri, Nyck De Vries will emerge as the stronger of the two drivers and Yuki Tsunoda will be replaced after next season, quite possibly with Liam Lawson coming in.

 

Williams will continue to struggle and finish last in the standings but both drivers will score points, Alex Albon will continue to impress and will be linked with a move to one of the stronger teams.

 

I don't predict a radical change in the competitive order for next season, as I expect the top three teams to continue to dominate the podium and if any other driver manages to win it will be in unusual circumstances (think Italy 2020 or Hungary 2021). Of the other seven teams, I predict Aston Martin will be the most improved team compared to the beginning of last season while Alfa Romeo Sauber will have lost the most ground.

I predict a falling out between Hamilton and Russel as the Merc regains competitive form.

 

I think things might get a little tetchy, but we won't notice because of the major meltdowns between team-mates at Ferrari, Red Bull and Alpine.  

Max wins 17 races and we're bored of 2023 F1 by April.

George Russell wins his first world championship. You heard it here first.

George Russell wins his first world championship. You heard it here first.

 

If the car is good enough, he has a shot. It may well be.

Hulkenberg will win a race.

By finishing 4th.