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Monaco 1984 speculation


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#1 Formula Once

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 16:04

Pointless as it may be 25 years later, but I was intrgued by the following thought:

We know that at Monaco in 1984 Senna was catching Prost rapidly and would have taken the lead if the race had not been stopped. We also know that, at the same time and even more rapid, Bellof was catching Senna and that Senna's Toleman would not have finished the race, having damaged his suspension on the kerbs in the chicane. Finally, we now know that Tyrrell (and thus Bellof) were later disqualified but that the team's finishing postions were not taken up by those that finished behind them in whatever race. So officially nobody finished in third place at Monaco that year. So what if the race had been stopped later or not at all, and Bellof would have finished first ahead of Prost or maybe Arnoux? Could we then have had a Grand Prix with no winner at all? Not officially at least?

Finally: why did Ickx use the checkered flag and not the red one, after which the race might have been restarted had the rains eased a little? Only an hour had passed, so time would not yet have been a problem.

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#2 ensign14

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 16:37

Everyone was moved up after the Tyrrells were excluded. The odd blank positions came after Brazil in 1983. Still have never seen a cogent explanation for that.

#3 JtP1

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 17:36

Catching is one thing. Passing at Monaco, especially in the wet, is quite another.

#4 David Force

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 17:54

I have nipped into my Tardis and with a little bit of time shifting can let you know what 'happened'...

Prost, as ever, played the percentage game and seeing Ayrton behind conceded. Bellof also hammered through the gap. Of course there was no way that Ayrton was going to give up the lead at Monaco although the Tyrrell had closed right up. Eventually Bellof (perhaps exhibiting the desire and impatience which was to cause his crash at Spa) moved up the inside of the Toleman into St Devote, not normally an overtaking place. Inevitably Ayrton slammed the door and both cars were in the barrier.

So Stefan Bellof, had he waited may have won when the Toleman's suspension broke but, of course, he could not know this was to happen so challenged too soon. Ayrton would NEVER have conceded his first victory, at Monaco of all places.

With then about thirty laps to run Prost is home and dry with a 30 second lead and the race runs it's distance.

So, whatever the scenario you may have wished, Alain Prost DID win the 1984 Monaco Grand Prix.

And was awarded nine points instead of four and a half and became World Champion...

Pointless, maybe, intriguing, definitely :cool:

#5 RStock

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 17:57

Originally posted by Formula Once


Finally: why did Ickx use the checkered flag and not the red one, after which the race might have been restarted had the rains eased a little? Only an hour had passed, so time would not yet have been a problem.


The start had been delayed , and the conditions were getting worse , not better . No need in continuing it .

#6 Rob G

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 18:41

I've always found it fascinating that Prost would have been champion had the race gone on long enough to award full points and he lost the race to Senna.

#7 ensign14

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 18:48

Originally posted by David Force

With then about thirty laps to run Prost is home and dry with a 30 second lead and the race runs it's distance.

Dry?

#8 fines

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 21:19

Food for thought, from the official timing & scoring report - the six fastest lap times during the latter "half" of the race:

Lap 16: Bellof 1'57.3", Rosberg 1'59.0", Prost 1'59.1", Alboreto 1'59.6", Ghinzani 1'59.8", Arnoux 2'00.0"
Lap 17: de Angelis 1'56.4", Prost 1'57.1", Bellof 1'57.4", Rosberg 1'58.1", Ghinzani 1'58.2", Arnoux 1'58.5"
Lap 18: Prost 1'56.1", Bellof 1'57.2", Rosberg 1'57.2", Winkelhock 1'57.8", Senna 1'57.8", Alboreto 1'57.9"
Lap 19: Prost 1'55.5", Senna 1'56.1", Winkelhock 1'56.9", Bellof 1'57.7", Alboreto 1'58.0", de Angelis 1'58.2"
Lap 20: de Angelis 1'55.4", Senna 1'56.1", Prost 1'56.6", Winkelhock 1'56.7", Alboreto 1'56.7", Arnoux 1'58.0"
Lap 21: de Angelis 1'55.4", Winkelhock 1'55.7", Prost 1'56.2", Alboreto 1'56.3", Arnoux 1'57.3", Senna 1'57.5"
Lap 22: de Angelis 1'55.0", Senna 1'55.2", Bellof 1'55.3", Prost 1'56.1", Arnoux 1'56.7", Lauda 1'56.9"
Lap 23: Senna 1'54.6", Bellof 1'55.3", Alboreto 1'55.4", de Angelis 1'55.8", Lauda 1'57.0", Arnoux 1'57.2"
Lap 24: Senna 1'54.3", Rosberg 1'56.1", Alboreto 1'56.4", Prost 1'56.8", Arnoux 1'57.2", Bellof 1'57.2"
Lap 25: de Angelis 1'55.2", Senna 1'55.6", Rosberg 1'55.7", Arnoux 1'56.1", Bellof 1'56.2", Alboreto 1'56.5"
Lap 26: de Angelis 1'55.0", Senna 1'55.2", Bellof 1'55.4", Arnoux 1'55.5", Rosberg 1'55.8", Alboreto 1'55.9"
Lap 27: Senna 1'55.2", Rosberg 1'55.7", Bellof 1'56.1", Alboreto 1'57.0", de Angelis 1'57.7", Arnoux 1'59.2"
Lap 28: Bellof 1'55.0", de Angelis 1'56.0", Rosberg 1'56.1", Senna 1'56.6", Arnoux 1'56.8", Alboreto 1'56.9"
Lap 29: Bellof 1'54.9", Senna 1'56.6", Arnoux 1'57.0", Alboreto 1'57.2", de Angelis 1'57.5", Rosberg 1'57.7"
Lap 30: Bellof 1'58.9", Senna 1'59.0", Alboreto 1'59.0", Rosberg 1'59.6", Arnoux 1'59.7", de Angelis 2'01.2"
Lap 31: Bellof 1'59.2", Senna 1'59.4", Arnoux 1'59.7", de Angelis 2'01.4", Alboreto 2'02.1", Rosberg 2'02.3"

A few surprises, no?

Noticed who was fastest most often? Or, how Bellof struggled at times to be the fastest German on the track?;) Note also the complete absence of Prost's name from the last seven laps - he had some car trouble, I believe he was sure to retire or stop at the pits within minutes.

It always amuses me how the Senna brigade uses this particular race to deify their hero... :D

#9 ellrosso

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 21:29

I think Elio deserves a bit of kudos amongst that lot - he's got more fastest laps than any of them!

#10 Seebar

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 21:33

Interesting, thanks!

What I was thinking of, Senna's 1'54.3 from lap 24 was the fastest lap of the race. What if Bellof had done a 1'54.2 during that race? Would his name be in the history books with one fastest lap to his credit? Or would the banning of the Tyrrells have taken that away from him?

#11 ensign14

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 21:34

Another guy who performed heroics was dear old Peter Charles, robbed of half-a-point by an unreported push-start on Arnoux. Had it gone the full distance he probably would have benefitted from retirements by Senna and Bellof's DQ...

#12 fines

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 21:36

Originally posted by Seebär
Interesting, thanks!

What I was thinking of, Senna's 1'54.3 from lap 24 was the fastest lap of the race. What if Bellof had done a 1'54.2 during that race? Would his name be in the history books with one fastest lap to his credit? Or would the banning of the Tyrrells have taken that away from him?

Officially, Tyrrell's performances were considered to be "outside of the FIA Formula One World Championship", so the answer has to be: no. It was all a bit tricky, what with protest deadlines and so forth. You see, you can't disqualify a competitor months after the event, at least not when there's no official protest...

#13 fines

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 21:38

Originally posted by ensign14
Another guy who performed heroics was dear old Peter Charles, robbed of half-a-point by an unreported push-start on Arnoux. Had it gone the full distance he probably would have benefitted from retirements by Senna and Bellof's DQ...

Yes, Ghinza was brilliant in the wet, also in the earlier stages of the race when he figured even more prominently in the lap time top 6!

Btw, the push start was for Alboreto, not Arnoux!;)

#14 ovfi

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 22:33

Originally posted by ensign14
It always amuses me how the Senna brigade uses this particular race to deify their hero...


Michael, it's because Senna was driving a slow and underpowered car... :rolleyes:

#15 RStock

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Posted 16 February 2009 - 23:09

Originally posted by fines
Food for thought, from the official timing & scoring report - the six fastest lap times during the latter "half" of the race:


Lap 30: Bellof 1'58.9", Senna 1'59.0", Alboreto 1'59.0", Rosberg 1'59.6", Arnoux 1'59.7", de Angelis 2'01.2"
Lap 31: Bellof 1'59.2", Senna 1'59.4", Arnoux 1'59.7", de Angelis 2'01.4", Alboreto 2'02.1", Rosberg 2'02.3"



A few surprises, no?

Note also the complete absence of Prost's name from the last seven laps - he had some car trouble, I believe he was sure to retire or stop at the pits within minutes.


I'm suprised Alboreto set those times considering he spent the last two laps tucked in tight on Prost's tail .

Seems I remember Prost pointing towards the left front (or was that right front ?) as he got out of his car .

#16 ghinzani

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Posted 17 February 2009 - 00:24

Originally posted by ensign14
Another guy who performed heroics was dear old Peter Charles, robbed of half-a-point by an unreported push-start on Arnoux. Had it gone the full distance he probably would have benefitted from retirements by Senna and Bellof's DQ...


Nah something would have broken...

#17 Arjan de Roos

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Posted 17 February 2009 - 07:14

Originally posted by Rob G
I've always found it fascinating that Prost would have been champion had the race gone on long enough to award full points and he lost the race to Senna.


But Rob, didn't Niki always say: "You do not need to do more than is necessary to win"? Possibly he would have gone a little further in coming races, possibly winning one more. Monaco was early season. As said, all hypothetical.

#18 Tim Murray

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Posted 17 February 2009 - 11:18

Originally posted by Arjan de Roos
Possibly he would have gone a little further in coming races, possibly winning one more. Monaco was early season.

I think it would be fair to say that in all the subsequent races he either won, or had some sort of problem with his car. The exception to this was Canada, but in that race he obviously had an inferior set-up to Lauda, and finished nearly a minute and a half behind Niki. So it seems unlikely that he could have done any better than he did.

#19 Arjan de Roos

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Posted 17 February 2009 - 11:39

I meant psychologically :p

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#20 fines

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Posted 18 February 2009 - 15:39

Indulgence of an idle brain... :smoking:

Imagine, the 1984 Monaco GP were a season of the Formula One World Championship, and each of its 31 laps were one Grand Prix:
1				   2				   3	  P

			 Tot  1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1	1  2  3  4  5  6 Top6



Senna		134  - - 4 2 2 - 4 1 1 - 9 9 6 9 6 - - 2 6 6 1 6 9 9 6 6 9 3 6 6 6	6 10  2  1  3  3   25

Prost		127  9 9 9 6 9 9 6 6 6 4 - 3 1 6 2 4 6 9 9 4 4 3 - 3 - - - - - - -	7  6  4  3  1  1   22

Bellof	   109  - 1 - 4 3 4 2 4 3 2 2 1 - - 4 9 4 6 3 - - 4 6 1 2 4 4 9 9 9 9	5  2  8  3  4  3   25

Mansell	   98  6 4 6 9 6 6 9 9 9 9 - 6 9 1 9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	7  5  1  -  -  1   14

de Angelis	90  - - - - - 3 3 - - 3 - 2 4 3 - - 9 - 1 9 9 9 3 - 9 9 2 6 2 1 3	6  1  1  6  3  2   19

Rosberg	   51  1 - - - - - - - - 1 6 - - - 3 6 3 4 - - - - - 6 4 2 6 4 1 3 1	-  4  3  3  1  4   15

Alboreto	  45  3 3 1 - 4 - - - - - - - - - - 3 - 1 2 2 3 - 4 4 1 1 3 1 3 4 2	-  -  4  6  3  5   18

Arnoux		35  4 2 - - - - - - - - 1 - - - - 1 1 - - - 2 2 1 2 3 3 1 2 4 2 4	-  -  3  2  6  5   16

Lauda		 32  2 6 3 3 1 - - 2 4 - - - 2 4 1 - - - - 1 - 1 2 - - - - - - - -	-  1  2  2  4  4   13

Ghinzani	  25  - - - 1 - 1 1 3 - 6 - 4 3 2 - 2 2 - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	-  1  1  2  3  3   10

Winkelhock	24  - - 2 - - 2 - - - - 4 - - - - - - 3 4 3 6 - - - - - - - - - -	-  1  2  2  2  -	7

Piquet		 5  - - - - - - - - 2 - 3 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -	-  -  -  1  1  -	2
What does it prove, you ask? Nothing, but I had fun compiling it. :)

#21 ensign14

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Posted 18 February 2009 - 15:59

PCG>NP. :clap:

#22 ghinzani

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Posted 18 February 2009 - 19:31

Originally posted by ensign14
PCG>NP. :clap:


Yes but we knew that already didnt we? :lol:

#23 subh

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Posted 19 February 2009 - 00:26

Originally posted by REDARMYSOJA


I'm suprised Alboreto set those times considering he spent the last two laps tucked in tight on Prost's tail .

Seems I remember Prost pointing towards the left front (or was that right front ?) as he got out of his car .


He was pointing at the front, anyway. According to Mike Lang (Grand Prix! Volume 4), Jacky Ickx “decided that enough was enough and acted on instinct just after Prost, pointing to the front of his car (not, as some people thought, to have the race stopped but to indicate to the McLaren pit that his front brakes were vibrating badly), had gone through to complete his 31st lap.”

#24 fines

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Posted 19 February 2009 - 09:19

Originally posted by REDARMYSOJA


I'm suprised Alboreto set those times considering he spent the last two laps tucked in tight on Prost's tail .

Remember the race was actually stopped at the end of lap 32, but the results reverted back to lap 31. He probably caught up with Prost during lap 30, then followed him in lap 31 (when he wasn't that much faster) and (part of) lap 32. I'm not sure, but I guess he passed him before the "checker"?

#25 Der Pate

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Posted 19 February 2009 - 09:33

Originally posted by subh


He was pointing at the front, anyway. According to Mike Lang (Grand Prix! Volume 4), Jacky Ickx “decided that enough was enough and acted on instinct just after Prost, pointing to the front of his car (not, as some people thought, to have the race stopped but to indicate to the McLaren pit that his front brakes were vibrating badly), had gone through to complete his 31st lap.”


As far as I remember Prost didn´t POINT to the front of his car, but waved every time he passed the Start-Finish-Line to get the race stopped...

#26 subh

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Posted 19 February 2009 - 09:48

Well, I’ve always gone along with the explanation that I’ve quoted above. Has Prost ever stated that he was trying to get the race stopped?

#27 fines

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Posted 19 February 2009 - 10:17

Originally posted by Der Pate


As far as I remember Prost didn´t POINT to the front of his car, but waved every time he passed the Start-Finish-Line to get the race stopped...

Every time? Thirty-one times, then, or how often? :confused:

#28 RStock

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Posted 19 February 2009 - 19:41

Originally posted by fines

Remember the race was actually stopped at the end of lap 32, but the results reverted back to lap 31. He probably caught up with Prost during lap 30, then followed him in lap 31 (when he wasn't that much faster) and (part of) lap 32. I'm not sure, but I guess he passed him before the "checker"?


Ah yes , reverting back a lap could explain it . And it's been awhile , I've slept since then and it's a new world for me everytime I wake , but seems I recall Prost pulling over right at the flagman . I remember wondering if he had actually crossed the line . Perhaps if he was slow enough to do that , Alboreto had already passed at that point .

#29 fines

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Posted 18 March 2009 - 22:57

Excellent:

http://www.youtube.c...feature=related

A full, 8-part Monaco GP report, with Murray and James commentary - this is part one, the following parts (hopefully) show up as needed. Inclusive of classic Murrayisms: "The rain is now driving down harder than ever, I imagine inside the cockpits it is absolutely unimaginable!" :lol: :up:

#30 FerrariV12

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 15:51

Great find - thanks! Enjoying it as I type this. Interesting that Murray notices Bellof's progress relatively early. Not rocket science I know but Murray was often like that, keeping the viewer informed of what was happening off-screen as the cameras followed the "action" at the front most of the time. He was a lot more than a collection of the one liner "mistakes" he's remembered for, he was also a bloody good commentator all round.

#31 rallen

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 16:18

Just a thought but if Bellof had won, later in the season would Tyrrell have been excluded? what by striking from the stats one of the big upsets and romance stories, would they have actually done that do you think?

#32 FerrariV12

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Posted 17 December 2009 - 19:27

Another guy who performed heroics was dear old Peter Charles, robbed of half-a-point by an unreported push-start on Arnoux. Had it gone the full distance he probably would have benefitted from retirements by Senna and Bellof's DQ...


Watching the YouTube vid of the race (all 8 parts are up now by the way!), it looks like Alboreto may have gotten a push start. Did Arnoux get one as well?