49 replies to this topic

[Tenmantaylor]

Odds for Melbourne GP have started to appear on http://www.betfair.com/ (rather than just the title bets).

Anyone got any money riding already?

Im guessing alot of money will be going on Jenson, Rubens and the BGP01 for Melbourne. Their pace is just getting better and better.

Toyota are still looking like good bets for odd reductions and trade out come race day.

[Hacklerf]

Ive got :

£5 on Button for the title at 90/1
£5 on Rubens for the title at 90/1
£5 on Kimi for the title at 12/1
£10 on Vettle for the title at 25/1

[sainsburypeter]

Originally posted by Hacklerf
Ive got :

£5 on Button for the title at 90/1
£5 on Rubens for the title at 90/1
£5 on Kimi for the title at 12/1
£10 on Vettle for the title at 25/1

How did you get 12/1 on Kimi?

[undersquare]

I missed out on Jense for wdc at 129:1 at one stage

But got Vettel at 33:1. Actually he's still available at 26:1 on betfair, a bit under the radar.

It's so wide wide open you'd want long odds to bet anything I think.

[Hacklerf]

Originally posted by sainsburypeter


How did you get 12/1 on Kimi?

It was ages ago, when Hamilton was the mega favourite, it was only at those odds for a few hours and i was lucky to stumble upon it

[Tenmantaylor]

Odds have started filling out for the winner of the Melbourne GP at Betfair. Odds currently stand at:

Button - 3.5
Hamilton - 4.1
Raikkonen - 4.5
Massa - 5
Barrichello - 5.5
Alonso - 6.6
Kubica - 8
Vettel - 14
Heidfeld - 20
Trulli - 22

Who da thunk it 3 weeks ago!

[bonjon1979]

£40 button 80/1. I saw the 1.19.1 at Barcelona and just went for it. I did intend to just stick a £5 on it but then something took hold of me and I just went for it. Bizarrely, my friend experienced exactly the same thing. He doesn't even follow F1 but when I told him that I thought that button would be the favorite within two weeks he went for it too and stuck on £40. I think we both get about £3000 if he comes in

in fact that's the biggest bet I've ever made, I'm usually the cheapskate who puts two pound each way, once a year on the grand national. I'm kicking myself a bit for not splitting the money between button and Rubens, but something told me that button would be the man. Rubens has been the better driver over the years, but I've got a feeling that Button really has a lot more to prove and may have the hunger for it. Rest assured, if button brings it home you lot will know about it, I think the whole world will!!!

[Tenmantaylor]

Haha nice.

Now the most race wins for title has been confirmed I think a team like brawn has a better chance of WDC. The car looks fastest but might be unreliable. If they dominate opening races before others catch up those wins could seal title.

Or the Brawn might not be fastest at all when the flag drops and the hefty amount of bullshit stops

After a bit of money goin on Betfair odds for win at melbourne have stablisised. Kimi now favourite at 6.4, Jenson 6.6 and Massa 8.4. These are very good odds for the favourites. Most races last year were around 3 for the fastest cars to win before the weekend. Can get Lewis at 9 now

[sulgpallur]

I put 1$ for Button WDC and for BrawnGP WCC on 35.0

[bonjon1979]

Originally posted by Tenmantaylor
Haha nice.

Now the most race wins for title has been confirmed I think a team like brawn has a better chance of WDC. The car looks fastest but might be unreliable. If they dominate opening races before others catch up those wins could seal title.

Or the Brawn might not be fastest at all when the flag drops and the hefty amount of bullshit stops

After a bit of money goin on Betfair odds for win at melbourne have stablisised. Kimi now favourite at 6.4, Jenson 6.6 and Massa 8.4. These are very good odds for the favourites. Most races last year were around 3 for the fastest cars to win before the weekend. Can get Lewis at 9 now

All very true. I guess another part of my reasoning for betting is that I'm a Mclaren fan and since it looked a bit grim for lewis and Kovy I thought why not have a bit fun with Brawn. I agree that the wins thing, could play in to our favour, but lets wait and see. Roll on Melbourne!

[Tenmantaylor]

Originally posted by Tenmantaylor
Haha nice.

Now the most race wins for title has been confirmed I think a team like brawn has a better chance of WDC. The car looks fastest but might be unreliable. If they dominate opening races before others catch up those wins could seal title.

http://www.autosport...rt.php/id/73761

Bernie definately reads these forums ;)

[F1Fund]

Originally posted by Hacklerf
Ive got :

£5 on Button for the title at 90/1
£5 on Rubens for the title at 90/1
£5 on Kimi for the title at 12/1
£10 on Vettle for the title at 25/1

Jesus - I monitor these markets (and the bookies prices) and I have not seen Kimi at anything more than 6.00 (5/1). Not saying your lying - I just want to know who your bookie is ?!?

[big x]

I've had an email from Betfair which states:

"Please be advised we have taken the decision to void all season long match bets in light of the new FIA rules that were announced yesterday.

The WMSC accepted the proposal from Formula One Management to award the drivers’ championship to the driver who has won the most races during the season. If two or more drivers finish the season with the same number of wins, the title will be awarded to the driver with the most points, the allocation of points being based on the current 10, 8, 6 etc. system.

In light of the new format that the FIA has introduced we have no plans to introduce any new season long match bets."

This is particularly annoying to me because with the changing odds in the drivers market recently I'd actually managed to green my book. IE. was in profit regardless of who won !

So...the first unintended consequence of changing the rules so close to the season start. No other sporting body would leave things so late.

[mclarensmps]

Oh wow, that sucks .

Sorry to hear that, mate :

[metz]

Originally posted by big x
The WMSC accepted the proposal from Formula One Management to award the drivers’ championship to the driver who has won the most races during the season.

This is the part of note.
It is the first time we hear that the FIA did this on instruction from Bernie.

[sldsmkd]

My bets, dont think any will come in

Constructors Championship 2009 – Toyota @ 20/1 - £15.00
F1 Drivers Championship 2009 – Timo Glock @ 40/1 - £5.00
F1 Drivers Championship 2009 – Robert Kubica @ 11/2 - £5.00
F1 Constructors Championship 2009 – Brawn GP (Formally Honda) @ 20/1 - £5.00
Australian GP – Rubens Barrichello @ 66/1 - £10.00
Australian GP – Jenson Button @ 25/1 - £10.00

[Alfisti]

I am not a big fan of that style of betting, for myself i find larger sums of shorter odds works much better.

[Tenmantaylor]

Originally posted by Alfisti
I am not a big fan of that style of betting, for myself i find larger sums of shorter odds works much better.

Its probably more effective but not so desirable if you dont have large sums to waste. Its the punters like me and sldsmkd that keep the bookies in business

[sainsburypeter]

Originally posted by Tenmantaylor


Its probably more effective but not so desirable if you dont have large sums to waste. Its the punters like me and sldsmkd that keep the bookies in business

You say that though Button is currently favourite for Melbourne @ 4/1, Barrichello is 9/1. As someone said in an earlier post there's always the possibility of finding value in F1 odds (even at 66/1) as long as you do a bit of research.

[dank]

For the newbie betting folk out there, I guess 'backing' refers to you predicting that an outcome will happen whilst 'lay' means betting it won't?

Where I become confused is, surely these have to be matched? If we take the Australian GP 'Podium Finish' odds, if I put money on Trulli not finishing on the podium, there has to be someone willing to bet an equal amount he will?

[sainsburypeter]

Originally posted by dank
For the newbie betting folk out there, I guess 'backing' refers to you predicting that an outcome will happen whilst 'lay' means betting it won't?

Where I become confused is, surely these have to be matched? If we take the Australian GP 'Podium Finish' odds, if I put money on Trulli not finishing on the podium, there has to be someone willing to bet an equal amount he will?

Your first statement is correct. The prices you seen on betfair at the moment are just bids and offers that you seen in any electronic market. If you were going to lay Trulli for a podium @ 9 (8/1) for £10 and someone took the whole £10 you would win £10 if Trulli is not on the pdium but losek £80 if he does. The person doesnt have to take the whole £10, they could just take £2 if they wish.

[big x]

Originally posted by dank
For the newbie betting folk out there, I guess 'backing' refers to you predicting that an outcome will happen whilst 'lay' means betting it won't?

Where I become confused is, surely these have to be matched? If we take the Australian GP 'Podium Finish' odds, if I put money on Trulli not finishing on the podium, there has to be someone willing to bet an equal amount he will?

Remember it's real time betting. If during the race Trulli is looking close to a podium the odds will change dramatically and your bet will be matched.
If you want to play safe you would bet on Trulli at 11 and lay at 10. In this case if matched, you would make £1 because your profit (the bet) is greater than your liability(the lay). If you lost you get your £10 stake back.
Clearly, both before and during the race, it is possible with changing odds, to get yourself into a position where you make money whatever the race outcome. This is what bookies do. In the long run, an average punter dim enough to place bets at a traditional betting shop without laying off some of the risks will always loose. By loose I mean pay the bookies profit margin.

Oddschecker.com is a handy tool.

http://www.oddscheck...rs-championship

[F1Fund]

Originally posted by big x

If you want to play safe you would bet on Trulli at 11 and lay at 10. In this case if matched, you would make £1 because your profit (the bet) is greater than your liability(the lay).

That’s called scalping, it’s a method you can apply to any market in which you don’t actually know or care about the underlying event (ie you can apply that to horses, football, F1…).

If you know your stuff and manage your positions properly then why stick to scalping. You can ride the huge streamers (odds shortening) and drifters (odds lengthen) you get in the F1 markets! I’ve been doing it for years and blogged about it last year (see the link below).

Just make sure you accept when you were wrong and take losses on the chin. So what if you loose 5 x £1 from being on the wrong side of the slide (as long as you scalp out when you can) when you can make 1 x £10 from one runner you got on the right side of.

Originally posted by Alfisti
I am not a big fan of that style of betting, for myself i find larger sums of shorter odds works much better.

Outright betting is a totally different game to trading the movements. You will never win in the long run unless you find value. I’m afraid that larger sums on shorter odds is exactly the same as smaller sums on longer odds.

It gives the impression of working better because you win more often, but unless you where finding value (which in simple terms means the odds were better than the expected probability) you will either loose or break even over the long run.


Happy (sensible) punting!

EDIT: Sensible punting would include not participating in events where the rules constantly change !!! just read the latest news about points system possibly being delayed, will be interesting to see what Betfair have to say about that Big X and the match bets they voided.

[Alfisti]

Originally posted by F1Fund
EDIT: Sensible punting would include not participating in events where the rules constantly change !!! just read the latest news about points system possibly being delayed, will be interesting to see what Betfair have to say about that Big X and the match bets they voided.

Hence i don't touch F1 unless it seems a no-brainer or a season long tip because event by ebent the car can break or some kid in a STR can rear end you ;)

OT but I find Darts by far and away the most profitable to bet on. The early rounds I'll usually win 9 from 10 at $1.25 to $1.40.

[big x]

Originally posted by F1Fund


That’s called scalping, it’s a method you can apply to any market in which you don’t actually know or care about the underlying event (ie you can apply that to horses, football, F1…).

If you know your stuff and manage your positions properly then why stick to scalping. You can ride the huge streamers (odds shortening) and drifters (odds lengthen) you get in the F1 markets! I’ve been doing it for years and blogged about it last year (see the link below).

Just make sure you accept when you were wrong and take losses on the chin. So what if you loose 5 x £1 from being on the wrong side of the slide (as long as you scalp out when you can) when you can make 1 x £10 from one runner you got on the right side of.



Outright betting is a totally different game to trading the movements. You will never win in the long run unless you find value. I’m afraid that larger sums on shorter odds is exactly the same as smaller sums on longer odds.

It gives the impression of working better because you win more often, but unless you where finding value (which in simple terms means the odds were better than the expected probability) you will either loose or break even over the long run.


Happy (sensible) punting!

EDIT: Sensible punting would include not participating in events where the rules constantly change !!! just read the latest news about points system possibly being delayed, will be interesting to see what Betfair have to say about that Big X and the match bets they voided.

Thanx for the link.

It seems in the confusion Betfair are now leaving the WDC market open !

I hadn't heard the term 'scalping' before, I'm self taught, just applied a bit probability.
The F1 market does seem easier to make money from than some, perhaps because it attracts the occasional gambler ?
In 2007 I used to dutch the only teams who could win and made a fair amount, although strictly speaking this is not gambling, just taking money from people who failed their maths 0 level !

Test matches involving England is the market I keep taking loses from.

[sldsmkd]

I'll have to do a mathematics on this, I think I made solid bets actually

I have:

£10 25/1 on Button
£10 66/1 on Rubens
£10 on each Toyota driver @ 40/1
£7 on Kubica to win @ 9/1

That to me is 60-70% of the likely winners, the best choices make me a big profit, the worst choice breaks even.

I lose out if McLaren or Ferrari win *shrugs*

[Phucaigh]

http://www.paddypowe...3776&bir_index=

Trulli each way for qualifying looks good at 22/1

[dank]

Bets I've made this weekend are as follows:

K. Raikkonen to win at 6.00 e/w
T. Glock to score points at 2.10
H. Kovalainen to score points at 2.20
R. Kubica to finish top three at 3.25

Placed through Coral. Haven't bet a lot admittedly, only £10 across all four.

[dank]

My £10 turned into £5.75 thanks only to Glock.

How did everybody else get on?

Thinking of backing Webber for points at 11/8 (2.375) this weekend. Luck must be in, surely?

[Phucaigh]

Originally posted by dank
My £10 turned into £5.75 thanks only to Glock.

How did everybody else get on?

Thinking of backing Webber for points at 11/8 (2.375) this weekend. Luck must be in, surely?

Overall I made some thanks to Trulli finishing in the top three, had 2 euro on Trulli to get a podium at 8/1 and got back €18.

[Matt Somers]

I won £17 for the Jenson win only placed a £1 on, oh well. Got £2 @ 50/1 on Brawn GP for the constructors

[Tenmantaylor]

The odds for the Chinese GP are INSANE at Betfair.

Jenson is predicably big favourite at 2.6 but look at these odds for the win:

Rosberg @ 22

Vettel @ 18.5

Kubica @ 21

Trulli @ 13

Glock @ 19.5

Heidfeld @ 32 (!)

I dont recall such odds on the near favourites ever. These guys arent that far away and if Jenson has a problem could be a good spread bet opportunity.

[Madras]

I bet most of you lose.

[dank]

Originally posted by Phucaigh


Overall I made some thanks to Trulli finishing in the top three, had 2 euro on Trulli to get a podium at 8/1 and got back €18.

Webber finished in the points for me. I'm sitting on a 'massive' sum of £12.46 now going into China.

Rich, beyond my wildest dreams!!!

[Phucaigh]

Originally posted by dank


Webber finished in the points for me. I'm sitting on a 'massive' sum of £12.46 now going into China.

Rich, beyond my wildest dreams!!!

True, I didn't know what to do with my winnings

[sainsburypeter]

Looks like the bookies have withdrawn all offers on F1 until diffuser situation sorted out. Betfair now suspended as well.

Managed to back Vettel @ 17 for China win as a hedge should they be banned.

[dank]

Now the diffuser debate has been settled, F1 related offers should be back up now.

Any tips for this weekend? I unfortunately have my hands tied so need to use Coral and thinking of going for the following:

Webber to do better than Vettel: 2.625
Sutil to qualifying better than Fisi: 1.91
Heidfeld points finish: 2.10

Might put a couple of quid on either Buemi or Bourdais scoring points at 8.00 each as well.

[Tenmantaylor]

Originally posted by Tenmantaylor
The odds for the Chinese GP are INSANE at Betfair.

Vettel @ 18.5

I dont recall such odds on the near favourites ever. These guys arent that far away and if Jenson has a problem could be a good spread bet opportunity.

Anyone take this up? Wish I had!

When the SC got deployed I back Jenson at 7/1 on betfair, looked like he could hold the same pace as Vettetl... we saw otherwise after the pitstops.

Then switched to fastest laps... as soon as rubens posted the best time and the red bulls pitted i got 2.5 on noone beating it and it paid off.

£2.50 up

[Imperial]

I stuck a fiver on Vettel last Thursday at BetFred, when the odds were 16/1.

Made a nice £80, cheers Sebastien!

I did lose a fiver on someone else though, but I won't go into that

[dank]

My coffers sat at £12.46 before today's race. I made the following predictions in the end:

Points finish
N. Heidfeld at 11/10 (2.10)
Stake: £5.00 Return: £10.50

Points finish
K. Nakajima at 5/2 (3.50)
Stake: £3.00 Return: £10.50

To Win
S. Vettel at 12/1 (13.00) eachway
Stake: £4.46 Return: £36.57

Nakajima was relatively woeful and Heidfeld did get into the top eight, but then mysteriously disappeared behind Buemi. Master Vettel won, and predictably, I wish I put more than the £4.46 on him! Oh well hindsight is a wonderful thing!

[Tenmantaylor]

Got Trulli for pole during Q1 @ 5.1 put £2 on £10.20 return His odds went up to 7 even during Q3, crazy!

[Phucaigh]

I had Trulli too for pole at 9/1.

Thanks Jarno

[Ruud de la Rosa]

anyone know when the market for the Istanbul race is open on betfair?

Edited by Ruud de la Rosa, 28 May 2009 - 19:27.

[Scotracer]

My Button for WDC @ 101:1 is looking great

[Ruud de la Rosa]

My Button for WDC @ 101:1 is looking great

you placed the bet at betfair? button now at 1:1.34.

[Hacklerf]

My Button WDC £5 @ 90/1 is looking nice too:D

[Ruud de la Rosa]

My Button WDC £5 @ 90/1 is looking nice too:D

I only discovered betfair two races ago. so I missed out on the rise of the brawn.

[Hacklerf]

I put my bet down after the Brawn done 20 laps in their first test, £5 on each Button/Rubens

Also got a free £20 from paddy power which i put on Vettel 25/1 i think it was

[dank]

So how we all doing now we've reached the mid-season point?

I started off with £10 and have so far amassed £120 profit. Nothing amazing, but it's paid the road tax on my motor for the year ahead

[chdphd]

Australian Grand Prix – Jenson Button @ 16/1 - £10.00 + £170
Malaysian Grand Prix – Robert Kubica @ 9/1 - £10.00 - £10
Malaysian Grand Prix – Jarno Trulli @ 20/1 - £10.00 - £10
German Grand Prix – Rubens Barrichello @ 12/1 - £10.00 to be decided!