41 replies to this topic

[Andromeda]

Im not going to lie this season has proved more entertaining than last years so far but that's partly due to the Reliability problems of the top 3 teams on the grid.

The only reason why Red Bull arent leading both standings is because of reliability issues. If its possible for any team to make up enormous ground on a flying team like we saw last year when Red Bull caught Brawn GP which team would it be? McLaren or Ferrari? (Personally I dont care which team it is as long as Red Bulls enormous pace is slashed). I'm a more recent Formula 1 fan haven't been following it long but I was a huge fan of Button last year but I have to admit seeing him win over and over despite me wanting to see him win got boring and fast.

From what I've seen Ferrari had a great start to the season but they appeared to now have fallen behind McLaren now more reliability issues and McLaren do seem to have better pace than Ferrari right now. One would maybe assume that McLaren is the main rival for Red Bull now?

It would be a dream if Ferrari and McLaren could actually catch Red Bull in sheer pace it would make those boring dull races like Valencia much more entertaining.

Its safe to say McLaren is the most reliable team of the top 3. They really only have to work on their qualifying pace in particular. Ferrari perhaps both and their reliability issues. Red Bull clearly reliability issues they are great at everything else but this...

[The Ragged Edge]

Well if anybody can, I'd place my money on Ferrari and McLaren. Add in the fact both teams are in the hunt for both titles, they will continue to push hard to catch up with Red Bull. Don't be surprised to see either Mclaren or Ferrari find 0.2 one race and 2 races later find another 0.3. They are far away in qualifying trim around 1 second, but in race trim the gap is much smaller. I'd say between 0.3-0.6 ahead. This is the gap Ferrari and Mclaren can find to keep them in the hunt, for their race pace is better than their qualifying pace.

[tifosi]

I don't think so. With the testing/development limits the grid is basically set in February.

As stated in the OP, without some reliability issues and such, Red Bull would probably be a 1-2 in every race.

[Lights]

A year ago in Melbourne people were writing off the season already, a couple of months later Brawn was struggling and Red Bull and McLaren were winning races.

Red Bull will be harder to take down than Brawn though.

Ferrari and McLaren are close in races and I hope they will only get closer.

[jez33]

Depends if the Ferrari or McLaren bigwigs decide to commit financially to this season or next. If the gap does not reduce by mid season I would not be surprised to see the contenders switch their resources over to next year's car.

[harrows]

Depends if the Ferrari or McLaren bigwigs decide to commit financially to this season or next. If the gap does not reduce by mid season I would not be surprised to see the contenders switch their resources over to next year's car.

Funny, that's what Ferrari did last year...

[Carlo's]

In my opinion, McLaren will catch them soon. They will show their development potential and the main problem for them is the quali pace. The race pace is very good, almost catching RBR and even better than RBR driver with set-up problems.

[korzeniow]

I don't think so. With the testing/development limits the grid is basically set in February.

As stated in the OP, without some reliability issues and such, Red Bull would probably be a 1-2 in every race.

Oh Really? What about last year when Brawn GP started season with enormous advantege? Do you remember what heppened?

[jez33]

Oh Really? What about last year when Brawn GP started season with enormous advantege? Do you remember what heppened?

Brawn went on record to say they basically did not have the big budget to keep developing the car at the same pace as the others.

[Ellios]

Oh Really? What about last year when Brawn GP started season with enormous advantege? Do you remember what heppened?

Brawn GP certainly did start with an enormous advantage, but I'm not sure it was as big an advantage as Red Bull enjoys right now, plus Brawn GP was lasting out on old money and going through a significant restructuring process.

Red Bull is a wealthy team, that is stable and established for a number of years, plus they have arguably the best design team in F1 right now, coupled with the limited testing time.

with the removal of F-ducts and DD's for next year and the likely introduction of KERS again, as mentioned already budgets are being stripped down, I can't see them being caught before it's too late.

[Merzario]

Do they really need to catch Red Bull?
Over one lap at qualifying for sure. They will no catch them in time.
But Montmelo was typical Red Bull track so that 1'' advantage will be shorter in other races.

Hamilton and Alonso can profit from Red Bull lack of reliability and lack of leadership: Vettel is very fast and clear favorite this year but he is too young to be a established leader of that team.

Hamilton is much better than Button (who chanced at wet races) and Alonso is Ferrari top gun and that could help them attempt winning the WDC. Also point system could also help them as a 1st, a 3rd and a 4th worth more than 2 wins and a DNF.

But of course if Vettel wins about 5 races in a row practically nothing can be done.

[mstar]

with the current regs or potentially 1 stops just for tyres its not a race to be honest. If the regs were like last year then we would see much better strategy to beat redbulls.

Currently qualy is so important that redbull will win most races full stop.

[karlth]

with the current regs or potentially 1 stops just for tyres its not a race to be honest. If the regs were like last year then we would see much better strategy to beat redbulls.

Currently qualy is so important that redbull will win most races full stop.

They haven't in spite of having the fastest car at every single race so far.

[Buttoneer]

A number of teams have the capability of getting close, as I think we have seen in the race. Problem for this year is that the team in front is developing as hard as the teams catching up. It's a great shame because I don't think F1 needs yet another undeserving champion ;)

[velgajski1]

A number of teams have the capability of getting close, as I think we have seen in the race. Problem for this year is that the team in front is developing as hard as the teams catching up. It's a great shame because I don't think F1 needs yet another undeserving champion ;)

Realistically - anything can happen. My personal opinion is that Red Bull is going to stay fastest, but Ferrari and McLaren will get closer. My opinion is also that Ferrari and McLaren have stronger driver lineups. In the end - its probably reliability which is going to decide WDC and WCC.

[Szoelloe]

realistically?

no

unrealistically?

NO

[Tenmantaylor]

McLaren were still way behind this time last year, Im sure they can still catch them. They are almost even in race pace already, it's just Q pace that people might struggle to catch them this season.

[H2H]

It will be very though indeed. So far RBR was never even pushed under normal conditions in the latter phases of the GP and thus had never to show their race pace in the second half of a race. If my interpretation proves to be correct then their late race pace is in relative terms superior to their early race pace, tyres permitting. Last year Brawn GP was far easier to catch, as most of their pace was based on the DDD. While no other top team could integrate it as well it was far easier to take a great chunk out of their lead in this ragard. They were also outdeveloped by the other top teams.

McLaren and Ferrari have of course a great advantage in HP, somewhere between 20 and according to Mateschitz even 40 more then RBR. But their disadvantage could even increase in the short term as the RB6 might run also an F-Duct after Monaco. While I do think that McLaren gets most out of this technology, the gain in pace For RBR should not be shabby either.

All in all I quite surprised that dispite all those handicaps RBR is ahead of the traditional teams and even by a considerable margin, which of course differs from race to race, according to all the different conditions and updates.


H2H

Edited by H2H, 12 May 2010 - 11:49.

[korzeniow]

A number of teams have the capability of getting close, as I think we have seen in the race. Problem for this year is that the team in front is developing as hard as the teams catching up. It's a great shame because I don't think F1 needs yet another undeserving champion ;)

Are you saying that if Red Bull driver will win championship he will be another undeserving champion? Are you also saying that Button is undeserving champion?

[Augurk]

Are you saying that if Red Bull driver will win championship he will be another undeserving champion? Are you also saying that Button is undeserving champion?

I believe you have stumbled upon something called... sarcasm.

[korzeniow]

I believe you have stumbled upon something called... sarcasm.

oh ok then

[Pilla]

Mclaren when't years unable to catch Ferrari and that was with a bigger budget, unlimited testing and Adrian Newey, why do we think they can now?

Last year they had a huge step in performance but that was because they had a fundamentally flawed car, once those flaws were addressed time was found, its much harder to find large chunks of time in a car with no problems.

[primer]

Both Mclaren and Ferrari are in a good position to best Red Bull. I'd say Mercedes too, but they had to do some emergency mods to fix Schumacher versus Rosberg situation which has detracted them somewhat from the goal of building fastest possible car, and wasted a lot of development time.

[DEVO]

To be honest, I don't think we have seen the true race pace of the RBRs. Once the reliability issues are resolved, I don't think anybody will come close. I believe Mark didn't push his car in the last race once he had a nice margin. SV had an off day but still managed to podium.

[Hacklerf]

Team can cath them, but the problem is that Red Bull development is excellent, look at last year how fast they started and finished, but in the end of the day its the laws of diminishing returns that could save the rest

[Vids21]

Mclaren had at some point during the 2009 season a car that couldn't pass Q1. At the end of the year they had the car to beat. I'm sure Mclaren and maybe Ferrari will be able to make there car competitive. Red Bull also got a strong base and I am sure they won't be sitting on there butts so I think it will be a had job, but I think it won't be a walk in the park for RBR.

[tifosi]

Oh Really? What about last year when Brawn GP started season with enormous advantege? Do you remember what heppened?

Yeah, testing was further tightened and development further restricted.

[FigJam]

On pure pace...don't think so.

Overrall results...do think so. Many factors can influence results, as we've seen.

[Alfisti]

Truth is we have no idea how fast RBR are because when behind other cars the lack of top speed means both drivers are doomed and when in front they nurse it home. One suspects Webber was half a second to a second slower than he could have been for the last 20 laps last weekend.

The McLaren in particular, and frankly the one Hamilton is driving, is the main threat. Alonso is doign a good job and Buton his usual cagey self but Hamilton actually looks racey and able to get close enough so that on tracks that don't suit the Red Bull he'll be a factor.

If I were McLaren i'd almost throw the towel in re. qualifying and work on starts, RBR is still vulnerable off the line IMHO and if you can get in front with this formula .... welll ......

[Gareth]

Before Spain I would have said yes: McLaren and Ferrari came from further back last season. If any teams could do it, you'd expect F1's two powerhouses to be able to. I guess I was expecting Spain, as the first race after the flyaways and place upgrades are often rolled out, to be step one in that process. Seeing the Red Bull's, if anything, increase the gap in qualy suggests to me it's going to be an incredibly difficult job for anyone to catch them this year.

[Alfisti]

The thing with last was that cars performed VERY differently from track to track. By mid season you had NFI who would be on top as the track made such a difference. The Red Bull looked awesome in Silverstone but looked terrible at Valencia. This year, well in qualifying it's been the almost exactly the same race after race.

[George Costanza]

Mclaren when't years unable to catch Ferrari and that was with a bigger budget, unlimited testing and Adrian Newey, why do we think they can now?

Last year they had a huge step in performance but that was because they had a fundamentally flawed car, once those flaws were addressed time was found, its much harder to find large chunks of time in a car with no problems.

I think Newey was outshined by Byrne and Brawn and of course Schumacher....

[BenettonB192]

I think it's possible for other teams to catch up. RBR is not as dominant as some think they are. In the past we had teams who were basicly untouchable for a whole season. Red Bull is not in that position imo. Certainly not under race conditions. They are very dominant in quali but imo this has not just to do with the car but also with the regulations and the fact that both drivers have their strenghts there.

For example i dont think the gap would be that big in the old format of 1 hour friday and saturday quali with setup changes allowed between quali and race.

[Seanspeed]

Maybe, but its looking like its going to be tough. Red Bull's development pace has obviously been severely underestimated, as we saw the gap in Barcelona was still quite large.

And I dont believe its all just qualifying, either. Webber, with managing his pace in-mind, was still noticeably faster than Lewis.

I think the gap will be closer at less downforce-reliant tracks, and this is where I think we will see maybe Ferrari or Mclaren put one over on Red Bull occasionally, but I think Red Bull simply has it down when it comes to fast-corner tracks. Its an impressive car, for sure.

[PNSD]

Apart from Ferrari not alot has changed since last year.

RedBull still top, Mclaren very close behind and Brawn behind them.

If anyone can do it, you can count on Ferrari and Mclaren. Will they? Maybe, but they need to take addvantage of Vettels so far bad luck. As much as I like Webber, I dont think he is the one who will be there at the end.

[Gareth]

The thing with last was that cars performed VERY differently from track to track. By mid season you had NFI who would be on top as the track made such a difference. The Red Bull looked awesome in Silverstone but looked terrible at Valencia. This year, well in qualifying it's been the almost exactly the same race after race.

True. I'd kind of forgotten about that. Before the start of this season, I expected that this effect would continue - even magnify - as it seemed to be a result of regulations stagnating development and closing up the field (so what were previously minor differences from track to track for performence became major ones) and I thought that would continue this year. Seem to be wrong about that one so far.

[jjcale]

No - its over. Congrats to Redbull.

Matershmitz (or however it is spelt) has put a lot of money into motorsport over the years so he deserves to win one of the big prizes eventually... is my only consoling thought.

[BullHead]

Short term race pace probably not, but race distance pace is not so unbeatable IMO. Red Bull are not going to run away with anything this season. It will be close by the last 4 races I reckon.

[barni]

the truth is rbr is unbeatable especially on high df tracks. the others` sitting in the big black hole so their only hope is to count on the tyre wear issues and lack of reliability of the dominant. maybe there is a slight chance on slow corner tracks like monaco and hugaroring or maybe on high speed ones like monza but we must be honest rbr pace wise is probably uncatchable this season. as for wcc and wdc it`s another story.

[Fastcake]

Yes, yes another team can. Probably either McLaren or Ferrari (I suspect both), it's far to early to write the season off as an Red Bull domination, there's often unexpected results or developments during the year to drastically change the field. Unreliability will certainly be a key factor in deciding the championships, but it only takes a few unpredictable races to change everything. Take a race like Spa last year; a team from the midfield such as Force India suddenly fighting for winning the race, imagine if Sauber could repeat this; suddenly there are points and places being "stolen" from the top teams.

Never make a prediction before it happens ;)

Edited by Fastcake, 12 May 2010 - 19:53.

[pingu666]

well alonso, shumi, and hamilton have all got the capability to challenge rbr, in the races atleast, ie do a mcnish

[PassWind]

Mclaren had at some point during the 2009 season a car that couldn't pass Q1. At the end of the year they had the car to beat. I'm sure Mclaren and maybe Ferrari will be able to make there car competitive. Red Bull also got a strong base and I am sure they won't be sitting on there butts so I think it will be a had job, but I think it won't be a walk in the park for RBR.

The car to beat at the end of 2009 was a RedBull not a McLaren, I think you forgot who won the last 3 races.