@apoka: Funnily I tried out various formulas just now to check between only Alonso and Vettel only this season who ends up on top. Here are the results.
Considering one last race: Vettel on top 56% of the time
Considering two last reces: Vettel on top 72% of the time
Considering three last races: Vettel on top 82% of the time
Considering four last races: Vettel on top 94% of the time
Considering five last races: Vettel on top 100% of the time
Considering ten last races: Vettel on top 100% of the time
Considering fifteen last races: Vettel on top 100% of the time
So for the 2012 season the last race is a lottery, just as I expected. But when we use the numbers from four or five last races the forecast gets interesting!
Thanks for the work, turssi - that's fascinating indeed!
Originally I thought nothing of your prediction method but now I have to say there is some validity. You should do it next year again!
EDIT for typo
Edited by aditya-now, 09 December 2012 - 00:36.