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driverless cars to hit california ( sorry!)


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#1801 Lee Nicolle

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 03:57

Just watching the Siemens Autonomous 65 Mustang going up the hill at Goodwood. It did actually hit the haybales and was all over the place like a madwoman. All this at about 20kmh. And the engineer was blaming radio signals and GPS dropouts.

Sorry no excuses, a total waste of time. This is the real world.

Someone please rescue the Mustang!



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#1802 Lee Nicolle

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 05:20

Roads change daily, if not hourly. My comments above about the hire car in England that the GPS was miles out of date,, the car was 3 months old. It got confused at roadworks!

A customer has one that thinks the beach is a road!



#1803 Greg Locock

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 05:41

Just watching the Siemens Autonomous 65 Mustang going up the hill at Goodwood. It did actually hit the haybales and was all over the place like a madwoman. All this at about 20kmh. And the engineer was blaming radio signals and GPS dropouts.

Sorry no excuses, a total waste of time. This is the real world.

Someone please rescue the Mustang!

 

I once saw a car at the side of the road with a blown engine. Obviously the internal combustion engine is not ever going to be usable.

 

Actually I am amazed that Siemens put their name on that POS.



#1804 Charles E Taylor

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 18:31

Meanwhile,

 

 

Somewhere else in England.

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=XYAtghbyc_M

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Charlie



#1805 PayasYouRace

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 19:47

Can you imagine how well an AV would get on in India in their manic urban traffic? It would last about 10 seconds. All the algorithms in the world can't cope with that sort of insanity!

And India isn't even a developing country anymore.


I reckon the idea of a car driving itself was viewed as equally unimaginable once upon a time.

#1806 GreenMachine

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Posted 13 July 2018 - 22:43

... or even the very concept of a car :eek:



#1807 Lee Nicolle

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Posted 14 July 2018 - 02:01

The aoutonomous 'race car' got up the hill faster and a bit more accuratly,then stopped on the track just after the finish,,, slowed the proceedings for a few more minutes.



#1808 BRG

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Posted 15 July 2018 - 19:06

I think that the the two AV demos at the FoS showed that developemnt has been very slow and still has a long way to go.  The Mustang particularly, but the Roboracer also to some extent, were clearly reacting to the edges of the track by steering away from it, only to find the other edge and steer away from that.  The Mustang was visibly zig-zagging, and the Roboracer twitching a little.  Both were better where there was a solid wall or haybales that gave very clear definition, but where it was just grass they seemed to have more difficulty.  



#1809 gruntguru

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Posted 15 July 2018 - 22:03

Meanwhile,

 

Somewhere else in England.

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=XYAtghbyc_M

 

Charlie

Promotional video so they aren't going to show the bad. Still impressive.



#1810 Greg Locock

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Posted 16 July 2018 - 08:48

My only drive in an L2 AV exhibited none of the weaving nonsense. I don't think that amateur hour rigs really tell us much about the state of the art. Using GPS as the main control is daft, it lacks precision and is too slow and needs you to map each lane. We know from the DARPA 2007 exercise, and Teslas,  that AV does not need precise GPS at any instant, the car can build enough of a model from other sensors to proceed at a realistic speed.


Edited by Greg Locock, 16 July 2018 - 08:58.


#1811 Charlieman

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Posted 16 July 2018 - 09:45

Just watching the Siemens Autonomous 65 Mustang going up the hill at Goodwood. It did actually hit the haybales and was all over the place like a madwoman. All this at about 20kmh. And the engineer was blaming radio signals and GPS dropouts.

It wasn't a great demo and somewhat confusing. The car was allegedly "trained" for the climb but the driver had to intervene on straight bits. 

 

The engineer from Siemens suggested at the beginning of the video that radio interference or bandwidth limitations caused by the live feed would impair GPS performance. That's a surprising admission about a demo environment.

 

The only thing I learned is that environmental mapping and GPS aren't enough on their own for an AV to perform meaningfully. 



#1812 GreenMachine

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Posted 25 September 2018 - 09:53

https://theconversat...-drivers-101178

 

Who'd have thought it!  :clap:

 

Hopefully this is a straw in the wind, indicating the issue is being taken more seriously.
 



#1813 Greg Locock

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Posted 25 September 2018 - 11:36

An article that manages to combine cluelessness and pomposity in equal measure. Good clickbait.



#1814 Charlieman

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Posted 25 September 2018 - 12:56

An article that manages to combine cluelessness and pomposity in equal measure. Good clickbait.

The article comprises 23 paragraphs so it isn't going very deep. Note the tag on The Conversation: "Academic rigour, journalistic flair". As if.

 

The article has a reference point: "Also known as Level 2 automated vehicles, partially automated vehicles are capable of controlling steering, acceleration and deceleration."

 

As a criticism of Level 2 automation, the article is clunky but not far wrong. Level 2 automation is about humans taking their feet and hands from controls for a brief interval, to stretch their limbs. Time to fiddle with the radio.

 

I don't fully understand the difference between Level 2 and Level 3 automation. Both expect a human to observe the driving experience and the human has capacity to take control; so the difference is the level of intelligence of the car. Level 3 is just a bit smarter, but relies on a human.



#1815 Greg Locock

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Posted 26 September 2018 - 07:44

The difference between L2 and L3 is... weird. I don't know of any L3 cars, the big boys jumped to L4.



#1816 desmo

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 03:29

Is L5, like practical fusion, always 20 years away or is it merely 10?



#1817 GreenMachine

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 09:11

That is the issue isn't it - if we are destined for an extended period where the auto cars require active supervision and (frequent?) instant intervention by the 'driver', how do we keep the driver attentive and prepared?



#1818 Greg Locock

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 09:51

Have you seen the Consumer Reports assessment of Cadillac vs Tesla vs Nissan vs Volvo? Just came out. They liked the GM system because it keeps a close eye on the driver.

 

https://www.consumer...ystems-ranking/

 

As to when L5 will be available in the showroom, the more I think about it the further away it gets. I think you'll see L4 with less restricted geography (say 48 states) in 10 years, which will be 'good enough', but I think a truly capable robot driver is overkill perhaps, do you really need a driver that is competent in every situation and climate? And are you prepared to pay for it? Even this L4+ needs a whole bunch of stuff that doesn't exist - ability to drive in snow/rain/fog being a big one.



#1819 GreenMachine

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Posted 05 October 2018 - 12:25

Thanks Greg, that looks like a good read!

 

You ask a good question Greg.  The answer will be 'it depends', mainly on who does the answering.  You or I might be happy with a less capable system, but someone like Uber who wants to replace the driver, will not.

 

Maybe there is an interregnum where we have limited capability L3-4, followed by another where we have L3-4 cars in private hands at the same time corporations are introducing and operating L5 cars (probably only in the bigger cities, at least initially).  In the latter case, we not only have the human factors issues with L3-4 operation, but the interaction between auto L5 cars and the semi auto L3-4 cars with fallible humans in ultimate control.



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#1820 gruntguru

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 06:38

I'm sure Uber only need L5- (L5 within a restricted area.) Pay for ride would only be profitable in limited zones.



#1821 Bloggsworth

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Posted 06 October 2018 - 09:02

Interesting interview with an AI scientist on BBC Radio4 a few days ago, in which he said that a fully autonomous car will need to be able to distinguish between a 5 year-old child, a dwarf, a 15 year-old youth with a phone in his face and an 80 year-old woman with a stick in order to read their intentions, and likely course of action, when they approach the roadside.



#1822 7MGTEsup

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 14:02

Interesting interview with an AI scientist on BBC Radio4 a few days ago, in which he said that a fully autonomous car will need to be able to distinguish between a 5 year-old child, a dwarf, a 15 year-old youth with a phone in his face and an 80 year-old woman with a stick in order to read their intentions, and likely course of action, when they approach the roadside.

 

Are computers any good at reading body language? What about a gut feeling that someone is about to do something stupid?



#1823 Bloggsworth

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 15:02

Are computers any good at reading body language? What about a gut feeling that someone is about to do something stupid?

 

Brilliant at Rock, Paper, Scissors; but that's a pretty limited field...



#1824 BRG

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 15:25

Are computers any good at reading body language? What about a gut feeling that someone is about to do something stupid?

May not be necessary.  My driving instructor - many years ago - told me to always assume that the other driver is an idiot.  It has served me well, that advice, and I have rarely found it to be untrue.  So just programme that into your AI.



#1825 Bloggsworth

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Posted 08 October 2018 - 17:42

May not be necessary.  My driving instructor - many years ago - told me to always assume that the other driver is an idiot.  It has served me well, that advice, and I have rarely found it to be untrue.  So just programme that into your AI.

 

I wonder if they're teaching these machines to leave room room for a cyclist to fall over and that the rules of the road don't apply to cyclists unless it's to their advantage...



#1826 Bloggsworth

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 10:18

There appears to be a problem in that most driverless cars are very US centric and cannot, among other things, recognise London buses, Black Cabs and other vehicles common on British and European roads:

 

Engineers have said the only way to solve the issue is to make sure that US driverless cars know what British vehicles look like in every type of environmental condition. 

 

Chris Posch, who is the director of automotive engineering at FLIR, told The Sunday Telegraph: “You would have to show it thousands of images of London red buses, not just in good weather in the day, but images of them at night, in the rain and in fog.”

 

“This cannot be considered a mature technology if it cannot recognise a red bus but it can spot a Chevrolet,” said Tom Brake MP."



#1827 ensign14

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 11:06

It also appears that two-thirds of accidents with driverless cars are them being rear-ended by humans.  It seems that driverless cars do not drive in a "human" manner.  So they stop dead apropos of nothing because the pooter detects a shrew or a nun or something in the distance and plays safe.  Meanwhile the following human can see ahead and suss that there is no threat, so is startled at the thing stopping.



#1828 gruntguru

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Posted 21 October 2018 - 22:59

Hmmm - have to get rid of the human drivers sooner than anticipated.



#1829 Greg Locock

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 00:25

" “You would have to show it thousands of images of London red buses, not just in good weather in the day, but images of them at night, in the rain and in fog.”"

 

FUD. Show a decent machine learning a small yellow car in a variety of environmental conditions. Get it to figure out what a big red bus would like in the same conditions. Apple do it in their screensavers - they adjust the photo for the time of day. FUD.



#1830 404KF2

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 00:52

I almost got creamed by a Tesla S on my bicycle a couple of weeks ago.  Perfectly clear, daytime, me in a Day-glow yellow reflective jacket with red LED flashing on the rear....I took the slow lane on a 4 lane road, over a narrow bridge and the Tesla buzzed me then lurched violently way from where I was, but about 2 seconds and 50 metres AFTER it passed me.  Either the driver should have his license removed due to poor reaction time, or it was on Level 3, which once again shows how desperately poor this technology presently is.



#1831 404KF2

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 00:53

Incidentally, the speed limit there is 90 km/h and I was going 55 on the bike.



#1832 GreenMachine

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 02:39

Interesting sidelight on unintended consequences.  There was a report in the local rag quoting a blind person as saying they nearly got bowled over by an electric car, due to its silent approach.  The kicker was that that was an outlier experience, but with the reduction in pedestrian area speed limits to 40kph, ALL vehicles are harder to hear.



#1833 kikiturbo2

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 09:11

Incidentally, the speed limit there is 90 km/h and I was going 55 on the bike.

 

hats off sir, if it wasnt an e-bike.. :D



#1834 PayasYouRace

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Posted 22 October 2018 - 21:05


There appears to be a problem in that most driverless cars are very US centric and cannot, among other things, recognise London buses, Black Cabs and other vehicles common on British and European roads:




Engineers have said the only way to solve the issue is to make sure that US driverless cars know what British vehicles look like in every type of environmental condition.

Chris Posch, who is the director of automotive engineering at FLIR, told The Sunday Telegraph: “You would have to show it thousands of images of London red buses, not just in good weather in the day, but images of them at night, in the rain and in fog.”

“This cannot be considered a mature technology if it cannot recognise a red bus but it can spot a Chevrolet,” said Tom Brake MP."


I get that machines learn in different ways to humans, but is it really necessary to learn what a particular colour bus looks like in that way? Seems like something a parody news site would come up with.

#1835 404KF2

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 02:40

hats off sir, if it wasnt an e-bike.. :D

 

It was a 2011 Cramerotti steel racing bike, and I was maintaining my speed after a downhill stretch.



#1836 Bloggsworth

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 08:16

I get that machines learn in different ways to humans, but is it really necessary to learn what a particular colour bus looks like in that way? Seems like something a parody news site would come up with.

 

Of course it is, otherwise how would the AV predict its progress.



#1837 ensign14

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 09:12

Interesting sidelight on unintended consequences.  There was a report in the local rag quoting a blind person as saying they nearly got bowled over by an electric car, due to its silent approach.  The kicker was that that was an outlier experience, but with the reduction in pedestrian area speed limits to 40kph, ALL vehicles are harder to hear.

 

Easy solution then.  Up the speed limits.  Has the benefit that cars spend less time on the road. 
 



#1838 Greg Locock

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 09:45

As you probably know, vehicle noise is limited by law. As you possibly don't know, the limits for passenger vehicles have absolutely no rational basis. Even more excitingly they are set to levels by committees that are dominated technically by industries that have an interest in making cars quieter. Thus we end up with car manufacturers optimising tires for road noise under acceleration, against braking performance (as it happens). So we deliberately have to pick tires that don't brake as well, in order to pass a test with no basis in science.



#1839 desmo

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 16:45

I live in a place where Teslas and other all-electric cars are becoming completely commonplace on the road, and yes as both a pedestrian and a bicyclist I've had to reprogram how I behave to compensate for their near silence when they are at slow speed after a couple of close calls. It made me realize how much I depended on my ears to inform me about the nearby traffic situation which I'd heretofore never really given much conscious thought to. It's also reinforced my belief that walking about streets with ear buds or headphones on playing music is really a reckless practice.



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#1840 BRG

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Posted 24 October 2018 - 16:53

Of course it is, otherwise how would the AV predict its progress.

"You have reached your destination.  It must be, because the buses are red"

 

It's also reinforced my belief that walking about streets with ear buds or headphones on playing music is really a reckless practice.

Indeed.  I recently saw a young woman exit Burger King and walk straight into the road without looking whilst staring at her phone and wearing those huge Bose headphones.  Unfortunately, the Darwin Award committee were at lunch because she survived.



#1841 mariner

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Posted 11 December 2018 - 13:26

As a beancounter I am addicted to the Financial Times which looks at many things from $$$ perspective. This article asks some pertinent questions abut how many humans are required to run a driverless car and the cost of them.

 

Obviously they wil eventually go away as the things evolve but it puts the learning curve costs up a lot.

 

https://www.ft.com/c...3f-bc62050f3c4e



#1842 Charlieman

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Posted 11 December 2018 - 14:14

More billionaire blowing-off stuff:

https://arstechnica....r-input-at-all/

 

There was an intriguing quote in the story: 

'Back in October 2016 when Elon announced Autopilot V2, the first sentence was "Basic news is that all cars exiting the factory have hardware necessary for level 5 autonomy, so that's in terms of cameras, compute power; it's in every car we make. On the order of 2,000 cars a week are shipping now with level 5—literally meaning hardware capable of full self-driving for driver-less capability."'

 

That's Elon Musk pronouncing that all of his new cars have the capacity to meet a performance standard -- Level 5 Autonomy -- which has never been achieved in reality. We don't know how to build a Level 5 Autonomy car -- that is why people are experimenting. The understanding which provides Level 5 Autonomy may come from something which we hadn't thought about. It might be about something assumed three years ago, but I wouldn't bet on it.



#1843 Greg Locock

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Posted 11 December 2018 - 19:56

That FT article is a shocker. Here's a non paywalled link https://www.ft.com/c...3f-bc62050f3c4e It is bleeding obvious that if you have a safety driver in the car then it will be at least as expensive as a normal taxi.

 

As to Musk, he is probably wrong. The hardware in his cars will not be sufficient for L5 unless his theory that cameras are all you need is right, and everyone else is wrong. As you say that's an untested theory, L5 is a huge jump from L4. I suspect down the track the L4/L5 classification will be broken down into smaller steps, and possibly not in a linear progression.