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#1101 V8 Fireworks

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 11:23

So the fact that Americans polluted with massively over sized, inefficient engines for decades and still drive massive trucks, RV's and pickups is all forgotten! Becauise for a few years you all bought V6 and V8 hybrids!

 

:confused:

 

The deep south and California are so different, they may as well be different countries.  :)

 

All I know is people who live in London and similar cities have every right to be cross with lawmakers for encouraging diesel passenger cars, instead of hybrid petrols and EVs.  They are the ones who have to suffer the unacceptable air quality and respiratory problems.  :cry:


Edited by V8 Fireworks, 22 November 2017 - 11:24.


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#1102 Charlieman

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 12:12

All I know is people who live in London and similar cities have every right to be cross with lawmakers for encouraging diesel passenger cars, instead of hybrid petrols and EVs. 

That reminds me of a story told by David Penhaligon, a UK Liberal MP in the 1970s and 1980s who was also a mechanical engineer. During a fuel shortage, he'd explained to Jo Grimond, a former party leader about the thermodynamic and fuel efficiency benefits of diesel engines over petrol, to which Jo asked "Why don't we use more diesel?" Sadly, there aren't enough engineers and scientists in politics explaining how eliminating one problem may create new ones.

 

It is not just politicians who deserve criticism. Green lobbying groups have never grasped that pollution from CO2, NOx and particulates is an interconnected problem with no magic solution. And there is something wrong in the automotive engineering profession. There was no public scepticism of fraudulent engine emission figures which other designers were unable to replicate. 



#1103 BRG

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Posted 22 November 2017 - 18:48

Europe on the other hand, implemented their disastrous policy of encouraging people to drive diesel passenger cars "to reduce CO2 emissions".  Now cities like London have horrible, unacceptable air pollution -- while those in Los Angeles can sit back with their relatively clean air, and smugly say "We got it right, and you Europeans messed up royally."

Well, you are right and wrong.  Firstly, Europe did not act as one entity.  Continental Europe oftenn gave tax breaks to diesel for decades whereas the UK never has done (and is in fact probably about to do the opposite).  But the UK did push diesel by cutting road tax which was made proportionate to CO2 emissions.  This was to keep the green lobby happy. 

 

But the green lobby won't be happy until we are all riding donkeys again, so now they trot out the NO2 issue.  And you have swallowed the media outrage about 'air pollution' which simply parroted what the green lobby said.  London does not have horrible unacceptable air pollution - I worked in central London for years and I know what I was breathing. London's air quality is probably better now that it has been since the Middle Ages.  No coal fires, few wood fires (although they are a bit fashionable, usually with the same people bleating about air quality.



#1104 gruntguru

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 06:30

I don't think Musk fully appreciates the difference between the luxury car market and the commercial (class 8) heavy truck market. The typical buyer of a TSLA automobile is willing to pay premium price because it's a status symbol that allows them to publicly demonstrate just how enlightened and environmentally sensitive they are simply by driving around town. On the other hand, the typical buyer of a class 8 heavy truck is a very conservative businessman who doesn't give a darn about his public perception, and only cares about the economic value the vehicle provides to his business.

In Australia we have a breed of truckie called the "owner driver". No doubt the same applies in the US. As long as the dollars stack up (and Musk's figures do if you believe them), the owner driver will buy the truck he wants to DRIVE.

 

I am betting every truck driver wants to drive a 2,000 hp prime mover.



#1105 Catalina Park

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 09:11

I'm picking that these Tesla trucks will have battery packs in the trailers. It makes a lot of sense with the way some companies operate trucks in supermarket/variety store distribution. These trucks are being aimed at this type of work.
The trucks typically run between a central warehouse and the various stores, 500 km is at the high end of a round trip, usually 100km. The tractor unit couples up to a trailer and off he goes, he gets back and hooks up to another trailer and makes another trip.
The trailers are backed up to the loading dock and it usually takes a couple of hours to load it, they are usually in no hurry. They have twice as many trailers as trucks

If the batteries are in the trailer they get charged while the trailer is getting loaded. There would be no time loss for the truck in charging.
All he needs is a battery with enough power to run around the yard between trailers.

#1106 V8 Fireworks

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 10:05

But the green lobby won't be happy until we are all riding donkeys again, so now they trot out the NO2 issue.  And you have swallowed the media outrage about 'air pollution' which simply parroted what the green lobby said.  London does not have horrible unacceptable air pollution - I worked in central London for years and I know what I was breathing. London's air quality is probably better now that it has been since the Middle Ages.  No coal fires, few wood fires (although they are a bit fashionable, usually with the same people bleating about air quality.

 

:rolleyes:

 

I am not part of the green lobby.  However I am absolutely pro-petrol and anti-diesels.  Diesel passenger cars for urban use are just plain dumb.

 

London does not have unacceptable air pollution?  Wrong:

 

levels of fine particulates known as PM2.5 exceed the WHO limit of 10 micrograms (μg) per cubic metre of air by at least half in London

http://www.independe...n-a7984371.html

 

It is estimated that the air we breathe causes about 40,000 premature deaths a year in Britain, mainly affecting children, elderly people and those with respiratory conditions.

http://www.independe...r-a7846761.html



#1107 7MGTEsup

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 14:29

:rolleyes:

 

I am not part of the green lobby.  However I am absolutely pro-petrol and anti-diesels.  Diesel passenger cars for urban use are just plain dumb.

 

London does not have unacceptable air pollution?  Wrong:

 

levels of fine particulates known as PM2.5 exceed the WHO limit of 10 micrograms (μg) per cubic metre of air by at least half in London

http://www.independe...n-a7984371.html

 

It is estimated that the air we breathe causes about 40,000 premature deaths a year in Britain, mainly affecting children, elderly people and those with respiratory conditions.

http://www.independe...r-a7846761.html

 

And GDI cars don't produce particulates?

 

If your being forced to choose between a 3 cylinder 1 liter petrol car and a 2 liter TDI as your only vehicle to get you and your family around which one are you going to choose?



#1108 RogerGraham

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 15:39

I'm picking that these Tesla trucks will have battery packs in the trailers.

 

That would work, but it would also mean that there's an awful lot of money sitting around in the trailers that aren't on the road earning money.  It would change the economics quite substantially, at least until batteries become much cheaper.


Edited by RogerGraham, 23 November 2017 - 15:39.


#1109 7MGTEsup

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 16:28

That would work, but it would also mean that there's an awful lot of money sitting around in the trailers that aren't on the road earning money.  It would change the economics quite substantially, at least until batteries become much cheaper.

 

It would also lower the load capacity of the trailers substantially as I should imagine a battery pack capable of transporting 40 tons a few 100 miles will be pretty heavy.



#1110 V8 Fireworks

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 20:45

If your being forced to choose between a 3 cylinder 1 liter petrol car and a 2 liter TDI as your only vehicle to get you and your family around which one are you going to choose?

 

:confused:  The turbo petrol would make do, but I strongly prefer naturally aspirated engines. 

 

I'm from Australia, so I will choose a 2.4 L 4 cylinder petrol (with Honda's legendary VTEC) thanks.  Petrol and road tax is very cheap in Australia.  :)

 

For a "family" car you can't go past a Honda Odyssey which is a well-designed 7-seater with a much lower roof profile than those silly overly tall SUVs.  :up:   :)   For a runabout you could go with a Honda Accord 2.4L (manual transmission), and for a luxury barge you could go with the Honda Legend 3.7L.  :up:


Edited by V8 Fireworks, 23 November 2017 - 20:52.


#1111 V8 Fireworks

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 20:48

And GDI cars don't produce particulates?

 

 

They produce a lot, lot less than TDI vehicles...

 

Hence why cities with 2% diesel/98% petrol passenger fleets have nothing like the level of air quality problems that cities with 50% diesel/50% petrol passenger car fleets have.

 

https://enveurope.sp...2190-4715-25-15  This is a unbiased study which is unequivical in finding that diesel passenger cars in Europe have been an unmitigated disaster.  Feel free to produce a study which shows the contrary, if one exists...


Edited by V8 Fireworks, 23 November 2017 - 20:50.


#1112 BRG

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Posted 23 November 2017 - 21:31

:rolleyes:

 

I am not part of the green lobby.

No, I am sure that you aren't and neither did I say that you were. But the green lobby produce all these reports and statistics and feed them to the media - such as the Independent - and the media essentially validate them by publishing them. Then the ordinary person tends to assume that they must be true because the media wouldn't publish them if they weren't true.

 

"It is estimated that the air we breathe causes about 40,000 premature deaths a year in Britain"  Estimated by who?  Apparently by 'an expert' who has concluded - without actually examining each one of those 40,000 premature deaths to discover the actual cause and whether they were in fact premature.  This sort of slanted, agenda-led unscientific stuff is vomited out on every subject under the sun and the media lap it up because it fills column inches which they would otherwise have to fill with real news. 

 

Following the media recently, I have learnt that statins will prolong my life, kill me prematurely and preserve me from cancer, as well as giving me cancer.  Drinking red wine will prolong my life although the alcohol in it will shorten my life.  And some stuff about Kim Kardashian.


Edited by BRG, 23 November 2017 - 21:32.


#1113 Catalina Park

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Posted 24 November 2017 - 02:52

It would also lower the load capacity of the trailers substantially as I should imagine a battery pack capable of transporting 40 tons a few 100 miles will be pretty heavy.

These types of trailers are never loaded heavy. They are loaded with roll on roll off pallets of mixed groceries or other consumer goods. They are limited by available floor space and never go near their maximum weight.

#1114 gruntguru

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Posted 24 November 2017 - 03:15

"It is estimated that the air we breathe causes about 40,000 premature deaths a year in Britain"  Estimated by who?  Apparently by 'an expert' who has concluded - without actually examining each one of those 40,000 premature deaths to discover the actual cause and whether they were in fact premature.  This sort of slanted, agenda-led unscientific stuff is vomited out on every subject under the sun and the media lap it up because it fills column inches which they would otherwise have to fill with real news. 

Professor something-or-other. Apparently they don't need to examine the victims - statistics or something?

 

http://www.bbc.com/n...health-35629034


Edited by gruntguru, 24 November 2017 - 03:21.


#1115 Lee Nicolle

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Posted 24 November 2017 - 07:49

:rolleyes:

 

I am not part of the green lobby.  However I am absolutely pro-petrol and anti-diesels.  Diesel passenger cars for urban use are just plain dumb.

 

London does not have unacceptable air pollution?  Wrong:

 

levels of fine particulates known as PM2.5 exceed the WHO limit of 10 micrograms (μg) per cubic metre of air by at least half in London

http://www.independe...n-a7984371.html

 

It is estimated that the air we breathe causes about 40,000 premature deaths a year in Britain, mainly affecting children, elderly people and those with respiratory conditions.

http://www.independe...r-a7846761.html

London greater metropolitan area is all about smoke belching red buses and diesel taxis. The City of london is blocked with the things. Far quicker to walk. And that observation is from one Fri afternoon site seeing on an open top bus and half a Saturday morning driving the metro area trying to find a train station where I could actually park. That after studying the underground website. It tells major lies! Thousands of cars all stopped and a bus lane for about 2 buses with a dozen people on them.



#1116 Lee Nicolle

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Posted 24 November 2017 - 08:05

I'm picking that these Tesla trucks will have battery packs in the trailers. It makes a lot of sense with the way some companies operate trucks in supermarket/variety store distribution. These trucks are being aimed at this type of work.
The trucks typically run between a central warehouse and the various stores, 500 km is at the high end of a round trip, usually 100km. The tractor unit couples up to a trailer and off he goes, he gets back and hooks up to another trailer and makes another trip.
The trailers are backed up to the loading dock and it usually takes a couple of hours to load it, they are usually in no hurry. They have twice as many trailers as trucks

If the batteries are in the trailer they get charged while the trailer is getting loaded. There would be no time loss for the truck in charging.
All he needs is a battery with enough power to run around the yard between trailers.

In that scenario they may be practical. Though having twice as many batteries will be damned expensive and also power intensive charging them. That providing they remember to connect them.

Here in SA we have a distribution hub at Monarto just out of Murray Bridge where is is unloaded from trains and then allocated off to metro distribution. Usually on tandem axle semis.

Though,,, once upon a time it was all done from Milend about a mile from the city. It still amazes me why they have basically abandoned that in favor of yards on both the SE side and northern rail corridors.

And ofcourse in this day and age why they cannot put more goods on rail. As the ever increasing truck sizes kill our roads faster and faster.

A friend used to run a Barley silo on Yorke Peninsula. The silo is still there but seldom used. The farmers trucks now sit for several hours each load at Wallaroo during harvest. And many are contractors in semis killing the roads even more. Then B doubles transporting grain along the roads too Pt Adelaide as well. A lot of grain does go by ship from Wallaroo but by far from all.



#1117 chunder27

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Posted 24 November 2017 - 12:10

Private Eye many years ago

 

Quited from the Express of a certain date.  Energy saving lightbulbs contain products that may damage your health.

 

A few months later, free energy saving lightbulb from various outlets!

 

To add to the truck conversation.

 

Trailers will provide most of the battery space, but that is going to have be carefully done, what about tankers and trailers towing hazardous chems?  WHat about lorries that are transferring several trailers a day in docks or distribution areas.

 

The main issue I see is that there aint much space in a tractor unit, just a cab over an engine and the various plumbing etc behind it to allow the trailer to couple.

So the engine space is mainly below the driver.

 

And as we have said before the drain on constantly accelerating with a massive weight is going to hamper range just as much as in cars



#1118 Wuzak

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Posted 24 November 2017 - 23:49

 


Edited by Wuzak, 24 November 2017 - 23:59.


#1119 Wuzak

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Posted 25 November 2017 - 00:17

An alternate view on the Tesla truck

 

https://www.theverge...emi-truck-price

 

 

Regarding the life of teh truck, I would expect that the electric truck would last longer before needing to be replaced, as it has less things to wear out.



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#1120 Kelpiecross

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Posted 25 November 2017 - 04:06


Musk reminds me very much of DeLorean - all promotion and no real substance. His EVs have no real inventive ideas - the only clever thing about his cars is the LiPo batteries - and they come from Panasonic. If he is not careful he will end up in jail (gaol).
There would seem to be many Musk-lovers on this forum who I would expect to know better.

#1121 Charlieman

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Posted 25 November 2017 - 11:24

That would work, but it would also mean that there's an awful lot of money sitting around in the trailers that aren't on the road earning money.  It would change the economics quite substantially, at least until batteries become much cheaper.

I'm sure that the passive trailers currently used are not cheap, but there is little incentive to steal empty ones. However a trailer containing commodity batteries which could be used for mains backup storage sounds like something a thief could sell.



#1122 Charlieman

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Posted 25 November 2017 - 11:41

These types of trailers are never loaded heavy. They are loaded with roll on roll off pallets of mixed groceries or other consumer goods. They are limited by available floor space and never go near their maximum weight.

Thanks for that contribution. Whenever I have free time close to a commercial port, I take a look at whatever technology I can see through the fence. Last year at Lerwick harbour (Shetland mainland), I saw a compound of trailers which had been driven on and off the ferry by the ferry operator's tractor. With the exceptions containing short life or high value goods, trailers can sit around for 48 hours until the next ferry arrives. If you add up the inactive time -- at rest at Aberdeen and Lerwick, on the ferry itself -- the trailer is out of productive use for four or five days. Presumably, freight companies will continue to use conventional trailers in similar scenarios.



#1123 Charlieman

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Posted 25 November 2017 - 12:06

Musk reminds me very much of DeLorean - all promotion and no real substance.

Another comparison might be Harry John Lawson who started with intents to control the automobile industry in Great Britain and the empire. Lawson had shown talent with his bicycle designs but his only automotive "success" was an investment in the (UK) Daimler Motor Company, which recovered after his involvement.

 

Musk is a different type of person, of course, but he established Tesla with the intent of defining electric cars and setting standards. No doubt he has read a few books about the history of science and engineering.



#1124 Catalina Park

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 09:13

I'm sure that the passive trailers currently used are not cheap, but there is little incentive to steal empty ones. However a trailer containing commodity batteries which could be used for mains backup storage sounds like something a thief could sell.

Except they are parked in a loading dock in a secure yard the whole time, they are only empty for as long as it takes for the first pallet to be rolled in.

#1125 Catalina Park

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Posted 26 November 2017 - 09:19

Thanks for that contribution. Whenever I have free time close to a commercial port, I take a look at whatever technology I can see through the fence. Last year at Lerwick harbour (Shetland mainland), I saw a compound of trailers which had been driven on and off the ferry by the ferry operator's tractor. With the exceptions containing short life or high value goods, trailers can sit around for 48 hours until the next ferry arrives. If you add up the inactive time -- at rest at Aberdeen and Lerwick, on the ferry itself -- the trailer is out of productive use for four or five days. Presumably, freight companies will continue to use conventional trailers in similar scenarios.

In that situation you wouldn't bother with batteries in a trailer at all. The situation I explained was solely for direct delivery from a warehouse to a store. Anything other that that needs a totally different plan.
But that tug unit that loads the trailers onto the ship is an obvious choice for electric operation.

Edited by Catalina Park, 26 November 2017 - 09:20.


#1126 gruntguru

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 00:59

Not sure where all the "batteries in the trailer" rumors have come from. The Tesla truck carries its batteries in the prime mover, the four or five tons is best situated where the drive wheels are.



#1127 gruntguru

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 01:01

London greater metropolitan area is all about smoke belching red buses and diesel taxis. 

The visible smoke from older technology diesels is less harmful than the invisible finer particles (eg PM 2.5) produced by modern CR diesels.



#1128 Greg Locock

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 10:58

Wouldn't the proof in the pudding be the air quality in the respective cities, rather than vehicle sales? For PM2.5 neither the USA or UK even has an entry in the top 500, suggesting that perhaps the question is more  a case of willy wagging than science? https://en.wikipedia...r_concentration.



#1129 MatsNorway

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 12:33

some of the pollution in Oslo is supposedly wood stoves and cruiseships.. well.. cruiseships pr year is 7000 cars a year equivalent. It is something but i doubt it is alot.

 

It is a bigger problem in the narrower and higher fjords.. They have smog from the cruiseships.

 

 

It is not only Oslo it seems.

http://edition.cnn.c...tion/index.html



#1130 BRG

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 19:00

Wouldn't the proof in the pudding be the air quality in the respective cities, rather than vehicle sales? For PM2.5 neither the USA or UK even has an entry in the top 500, suggesting that perhaps the question is more  a case of willy wagging than science? https://en.wikipedia...r_concentration.

That's interesting.  It very much backs up my earlier points that London does not have horrible unacceptable air pollution, but does have a very vocal bunch of ecomentalists! 

 

It also highlights the nonsense of the developed world crippling itself economically to save the planet whilst China and India go gung-ho and to hell with the consequences.  It almost makes you think Trump might have got something right.....well, maybe that is a step too far.



#1131 chunder27

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Posted 27 November 2017 - 22:17

Exactly

 

Trump was quite vocal about the green issue and everyone slapped him for it as he is supposed to be representing the most influential company in the world.

 

But when you look at his approach purely as a businessman (which is sort of what he is), he has a point. Why should I try and hamper my country with all this green stuff when the competition dont give a damn. China I think contribute something like 25% of the worlds pollution!!  or some crazy stat like that

 

And he is right

 

Except if he really did it, he is moving his country back into the 70's if he goes ahead with it!



#1132 scolbourne

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 03:56

China has a population about three times that of the USA and as it produces much of the goods bought in the USA  it would be expected to have a much higher CO2 output.

 

With a fair emissions trading system, countries that process ores and create the goods would pass on these emission tokens to the purchasing country. Eventually the most efficient countries (those with renawables, hydro or geothermal power) will produce the refined metals, goods .



#1133 Wuzak

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 07:42

China has a population about three times that of the USA and as it produces much of the goods bought in the USA  it would be expected to have a much higher CO2 output.

 
But not three times the emissions.

 

With a fair emissions trading system, countries that process ores and create the goods would pass on these emission tokens to the purchasing country. Eventually the most efficient countries (those with renawables, hydro or geothermal power) will produce the refined metals, goods .

 
China will be starting an ETS soon, or already has done so.

 

 

An argument that is used in Australia that annoys me is that we have a small contribution to overall global emissions, therefore we should do nothing. But about 30% of global emissions is by countries that contribute less than 2% (about 40% if you count the European Union as individual countries). A not insignificant amount.


Edited by Wuzak, 28 November 2017 - 07:48.


#1134 Kraken

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 13:14

Well, you are right and wrong.  Firstly, Europe did not act as one entity.  Continental Europe oftenn gave tax breaks to diesel for decades whereas the UK never has done (and is in fact probably about to do the opposite).  But the UK did push diesel by cutting road tax which was made proportionate to CO2 emissions.  This was to keep the green lobby happy. 

 

But the green lobby won't be happy until we are all riding donkeys again, so now they trot out the NO2 issue.  And you have swallowed the media outrage about 'air pollution' which simply parroted what the green lobby said.  London does not have horrible unacceptable air pollution - I worked in central London for years and I know what I was breathing. London's air quality is probably better now that it has been since the Middle Ages.  No coal fires, few wood fires (although they are a bit fashionable, usually with the same people bleating about air quality.

I worked in London from 96 to 07 before moving to the country. I guarantee you that the air I breathe now is infinitely better than the muck I breathed in London. Whenever I sneezed during the London period or had a bad cold with phlegm it was always streaked with black whereas it isn't now.

Plus the figures comparing respiratory problems in London to the rest of the country don't support your argument either.



#1135 BRG

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Posted 28 November 2017 - 17:37

I worked in London from 96 to 07 before moving to the country. I guarantee you that the air I breathe now is infinitely better than the muck I breathed in London. Whenever I sneezed during the London period or had a bad cold with phlegm it was always streaked with black whereas it isn't now.

Plus the figures comparing respiratory problems in London to the rest of the country don't support your argument either.

I worked in central London until 2010 and never had that experience. 

 

And yes, London (and the other large cities) will inevitably have poorer air quality than out in the sticks (although all those tractors and harvesters must be pumping out the particulates like nobody's business!) but the point was that to call it 'horrible, unacceptable air pollution' was an exaggeration based on very one-sided information.


Edited by BRG, 28 November 2017 - 17:38.


#1136 djr900

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 09:38

I have also spent long periods in London and never experienced phlegm with black streaks,

I also think there is a lot of exaggeration { usually from local politicians and the mayor } , an overcrowded city anywhere is not likely to have perfect air quality like a Rain Forest or something,

even if we all drive electric cars

 

when it comes to particulates does a Volcano {like the one in Bali} or a Forest Fire not pump out some particulates and greenhouse gases ?

I would like to know the figures for the pollution from these natural events , then I may not feel as guilty driving a small Peugeot diesel



#1137 7MGTEsup

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 13:07

:confused:  The turbo petrol would make do, but I strongly prefer naturally aspirated engines. 

 

I'm from Australia, so I will choose a 2.4 L 4 cylinder petrol (with Honda's legendary VTEC) thanks.  Petrol and road tax is very cheap in Australia.  :)

 

For a "family" car you can't go past a Honda Odyssey which is a well-designed 7-seater with a much lower roof profile than those silly overly tall SUVs.  :up:   :)   For a runabout you could go with a Honda Accord 2.4L (manual transmission), and for a luxury barge you could go with the Honda Legend 3.7L.  :up:

 

All those cars you speak of carry a high tax band here in Europe so people will not buy them. Also fuel isn't cheap either.

 

Like I said for comparable fuel economy to what you get out of a 2L TDI you have to go for a 3 cylinder 1L petrol engine so the choice was easy for people to go with diesel. This is nothing but short sighted policy from all the European governments by taxing CO2 you were forcing people into diesel cars.



#1138 7MGTEsup

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 13:25

when it comes to particulates does a Volcano {like the one in Bali} or a Forest Fire not pump out some particulates and greenhouse gases ?

I would like to know the figures for the pollution from these natural events , then I may not feel as guilty driving a small Peugeot diesel

 

I'm not sure about particulate mass but the amount of CO2 pumped out by a major volcanic eruption pretty much makes a mockery of how much we save by cutting back on carbon emissions.

 

How many active volcano's are there in the world at any one time?


Edited by 7MGTEsup, 29 November 2017 - 13:26.


#1139 Greg Locock

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 22:55

Let's see some numbers on that claim. If you look at a CO2 plot you don't see much effect of volcanoes. Which bit of this curve is due to (1) a general increase in CO2 which roughly equal to man's contribution? (2) The annual variation for known reasons (3) volcanoes?

 

Mauna-Loa-Historical-CO2-524.jpg


Edited by Greg Locock, 29 November 2017 - 22:56.


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#1140 MatsNorway

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Posted 29 November 2017 - 23:16

What is scary about that graf is that is it exponential.. in the wrong direction.



#1141 Greg Locock

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 07:42

What's scary is that every time I bring actual evidence into a discussion someone changes the subject. Can we agree that volcanoes don't seem to have much effect on CO2 in the short term, and move on?

 

 

So, yes, we are burning (exponentially, a meaningless term, an exponent of -0.1 means a gradual decrease) more coal. There are 6 billion third worlders who want a first world way of life, and the cheapest way to do that is to burn coal. I can't see any moral reason to stop them. Indeed since CO2 really doesn't matter very much in my opinion there is no particular reason to stop them either.

 

As to the more tedious thrust regarding CO2

Here's what I'd put together. It is not a scientific theory. It is a collection of theories and hypotheses.

The climate of the Earth is difficult to characterise and measure. One subset of climate is the average global temperature over a suitable time period, measured near the Earth's surface. This temperature has varied historically over a wide range. It is affected by many factors, both known and unknown. The main factor is the albedo of the Earth and the incoming energy from the Sun. These two directly interact and the combined effect raises the temperature of the Earth by about 250 deg C . (Incidentally while I'm talking about the Sun -Charged particles from the Sun may modify the Earth's albedo by altering cloud patterns. https://phys.org/new... ... cloud.html) The next most significant effect is the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere, which raises the temperature by about 33 deg C. This is due to several mechanisms associated with turning incoming EM waves into heat (badly phrased) , and also complex interactions with the heat radiated by the Earth's surface, and probably some other knowns and  unknowns. The greenhouse effect is affected by the gaseous composition of the atmosphere, and clouds. The most important gas for greenhouse is water vapour, approximately 80% of the non-cloud greenhouse effect is due to that. Water also directly affects the albedo of the Earth by forming clouds and snow and ice. Of the remainder the majority is due to CO2. In the absence of any other effects a further doubling of the proportion of CO2 in the atmosphere would be expected to raise the temperature by rather less than, but approximately, 1 deg C. However, this is a very weak effect and is easily dominated over any timescale from hours to hundreds of millions of years  by the many known and unknown factors. There may be positive or negative feedbacks associated with temperature changes, which may modify this 1 deg figure. There are certainly simple feedback effects associated with CO2 levels, eg the greening of the Earth (https://www.nasa.gov... ... ning-earth) which will affect both the Earth's albedo and weather patterns. One other overwhelmingly strong effect on an hourly to century timescale (at least) is the  interaction  between the oceans and the atmosphere. The thermal capacity of the oceans is about 1000 times that of the atmosphere. That is, cooling the ocean by 0.01 deg C (that's the limit of resolution of a thermometer typically, accuracy is perhaps 0.1 deg C) would provide enough heat to heat the atmosphere by 10 deg C. The interaction between oceans and atmosphere is hugely complex and data is lacking.


Prediction (1) : The above will have absolutely no effect on anyone.

Prediction (2) : No atmosphere based theory of global warming will have any true predictive power over the long term (say 20 years or more) until it takes albedo, the Sun, water vapour and clouds and interactions with the oceans into consideration.

Prediction (3) Partial bits of The Grand Unified Scientific Theory of AGW will be used politically, even though they are meaningless in isolation. Not really a prediction, that's been happening for 30 years



#1142 7MGTEsup

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 14:01

Let's see some numbers on that claim. If you look at a CO2 plot you don't see much effect of volcanoes. Which bit of this curve is due to (1) a general increase in CO2 which roughly equal to man's contribution? (2) The annual variation for known reasons (3) volcanoes?

 

Mauna-Loa-Historical-CO2-524.jpg

 

Am I to assume that the peaks and troughs on the graph represent summer and winter? Surely a large forest fire or volcano eruption must put carbon into the atmosphere? Would be nice to see that graphed against the amount of planes trains and automobiles in use in the world or would the graph have the same shape? Is there a graph to show how much carbon is emitted year on year for vehicles and production of said vehicles? Also what did the graph look like before 1960? is it a continuous upward trend, or was there a baseline carbon footprint of say 280ppm that was fairly level before the 1960's?

 

Edit

 

Just looked it up and from what I can see they are reckoning on around 0.65 billion tons a year of CO2 from volcano's V 29 billion tons from humans.

 

I'll put up my hand and say I got it wrong.

 

on the carbon foot print that was a pretty good guess by me at 280ppm as that seems to be what is indicated from the graph I saw dating back to 1750.


Edited by 7MGTEsup, 30 November 2017 - 14:19.


#1143 munks

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 16:12

Good succinct post that lays it out.

 

Prediction (1) : The above will have absolutely no effect on anyone.

 

Are glaciers not melting faster due to the increase in temperature? I believe that has an effect on anyone living near a coast.



#1144 Bloggsworth

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Posted 30 November 2017 - 16:40

What about the burping bovines?



#1145 Wuzak

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 01:25

This may have been covered before, but Fisker claims they will have a solid state battery available in about 5 years which will give a range for a car of 500 miles and a recharge time of 1 minute.

 

http://www.thedrive....te-charge-times

 

If the battery can reach the market and deliver anything close to what they claim for them, surely that would "Make Electric Vehicles Work"?



#1146 gruntguru

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 04:05

I am always staggered by the (re-charging) power levels suggested by such claims. 500 mile range suggest perhaps 100 kW.Hr battery capacity. Recharging that battery requires 100 kW for one hour or 6,000 kW for one minute. (A 600V, single phase charging cable would need to carry 10,000 Amps.)



#1147 7MGTEsup

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 08:03

I am always staggered by the (re-charging) power levels suggested by such claims. 500 mile range suggest perhaps 100 kW.Hr battery capacity. Recharging that battery requires 100 kW for one hour or 6,000 kW for one minute. (A 600V, single phase charging cable would need to carry 10,000 Amps.)

 

So you're saying I won't be able to charge it with my 13 amp wall socket?



#1148 Charlieman

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 11:05

 (A 600V, single phase charging cable would need to carry 10,000 Amps.)

That's if the supply is DC. For AC -- and high power electrical supplies are almost always AC -- the calculation is more complicated. Let's make it 15,000 Amps as a guesstimate.



#1149 FJuan

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 14:08

Did you know the conditions for the hydrogenation of plant oils?

They are:

  • Nickel catalyst
  • 60 degrees Celsius temp

But what is the other condition?

 

[1 Mark]



#1150 MatsNorway

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Posted 01 December 2017 - 14:09

Just ad root of 3 to the formula. For the amps per cable you you just get one more leader.. Well i guess depending on net type you have to size up the ground and the Neutral leader.. or something.. i think the fast recharge talk/focus/hype is silly. More range and price matters more for most.