Let's look at the last three seasons, how much has each driver won
Vettel: 5 - 11 - 5 (avg. 7 wins per season)
Alonso: 5 - 1 - 3 (avg. 3 wins per season)
If Red Bull and Ferrari keep performing roughly on a similar level as they have been in the last seasons, Vettel could have a shot at catching Alonso next year. But if he joins Ferrari in 2014, it would change the game massively. Still, Alonso's career should come to an end earlier than Vettel's, so Seb should still be able to overtake him in the long run.
How will they compare to the amount of wins of Prost (51) and Senna (41).
Both Alonso and Vettel are top drivers and as long as they remain in top cars, should score at least 3-5 wins per season. At this rate Alonso can certainly catch Senna before the end of his Ferrari contract in 2016. Vettel remains in the sport longer, so should have a shot at Prost - for that needs at least 5 more seasons in front-running cars. Maybe less if he has a great car for a year and can score 10+ wins like last year.
POLES
When will Vettel catch Schumacher and Senna in poles? At the moment 36 v 68 and 65.
Let's look at the last three seasons:
Vettel: 10 - 15 - 6 (avg. 10 1/3 poles per season)
Now good news for Vettel: Hamilton moves into a midfield team, so this should further boost Vettel's ability to score pole positions. There is still a big gap to the two legends though. If Vettel moves to Ferrari and they still keep producing cars, which are hard to put to pole, his streak could get somewhat derailed. But let's see!
Maybe in 10 years time we can look back and see, how close did we get with our expectations.
Wonder if in mid-to-late 90's people were calculating, what can Schumacher still achieve. And what did they think back then?
Edited by sopa, 26 November 2012 - 17:49.
