113 replies to this topic

[apoka]

He is certainly capable of beating those records, but I agree with noikeee that 4 remaining titles is quite a lot. Only 3 drivers ever won 4 or more titles in F1! While he is young, that doesn't automatically mean he will stay for another 12-15 years as F1 has pretty hard requirements. In fact, I think I saw a study somewhere, which shows that top athletes usually spend a certain time span at/near the top relatively independent of their age. In other words, people who are successful at a young age retire earlier. Vettel has already done 101 races, which already makes him 63th in terms of number of GP starts. On the other hand, Vettel is the type of racer whom I can image to stay in F1 for a very long time.

[sopa]

He's in the best position for doing it than any driver's ever been. Has won 3 titles at this age, contracted to the best team and constantly rumoured to be moving to another of the top teams. That's one hell of a position to be in and with one hell of a headstart.

That being said I don't think he'll do it because there's FOUR titles remaining. That is one heck of a lot, that's as many as Prost won and he was at the top for a decade. We've been here debating this a lot of times before with many drivers. Hamilton was going to clean out F1's records by now, Alonso was going to bag many titles being the youngest ever champion, Raikkonen was at a top team younger and less experienced than anyone ever, Montoya was the big thing to replace MS, J. Villeneuve was the big thing to replace MS before all of them. Didn't happen for any of them. Vettel's got a lot of talented competitors to worry about too.

If I had to guess a number I'd say Vettel will retire with 5 or 6, but this is hardly a scientific estimate.

That Hamilton, Alonso, etc didn't go on to beat Schumi's records, doesn't mean that Vettel couldn't do it though. Everyone's career and fate is different, even if past ones couldn't do it, but we might see one, who could. As you say, he is in a much better position than anyone has been.

FOUR titles? Now at the age of 25 doesn't sound that unbelievable, to be honest. By the age of 25 Prost hadn't won any yet. So they have a similar starting platform for another 4 titles in terms of age, just that Seb has got an advantage of a headstart. Of course, we don't know if Vettel races until late 30's like Schumi (prime one) or Prost did. But he could do it.

If someone in 2010 would have asked if Vettel was going to match Schumi's record, I would have said no, but now I consider it as a possibility. However, your guess of 5 or 6 titles would be an impressive achievement as well. Of course, there is one danger in the long run even if Vettel remains in top teams. That despite fighting for titles, luck turns against him and he starts losing out WDC's by a couple of points like Alonso has been doing recently. So far battles have ended in his favour, but once may come a time, when the tables turn and he fails to add titles despite fighting for these.

Edited by sopa, 10 December 2012 - 15:22.

[nada12]

Vettel's not the overall driver that Schumacher was and he's got stiffer competition than Schu had. This year he won a close one, but no doubt he'll fall short a couple of times. To win another four titles he probably needs at least another 7 or 8 seasons in WDC-capable cars; that's a tall order. He would need a lot of fortune in that regard, and switch teams at the right moment. Also nobody knows if he'll still have the hunger and relentlessness ten years from now. Can't see him coming close to seven titles and 91 victories at this time, but a small possibility exists.

[rasul]

Vettel's not the overall driver that Schumacher was and he's got stiffer competition than Schu had. This year he won a close one, but no doubt he'll fall short a couple of times. To win another four titles he probably needs at least another 7 or 8 seasons in WDC-capable cars; that's a tall order. He would need a lot of fortune in that regard, and switch teams at the right moment. Also nobody knows if he'll still have the hunger and relentlessness ten years from now. Can't see him coming close to seven titles and 91 victories at this time, but a small possibility exists.

With the way people still doubt him, I have no doubts that he still has plenty of hunger and the urge to prove himself as the best.

I don't know if he can beat Michael's record, but I think if anyone can do it, it's Vettel. I can't see any of the others even coming close to beating Schumacher's records. Hopefully Ham, but Lady Luck doesn't seem to like him.

[sopa]

To be honest, I think Vettel is more likely to match 7 titles than 91 race wins. 91 race wins is truly a huge amount, this is something I don't think he can do. It would take several seasons with 10 or more wins per year. But so far he has won two out of the three titles with 5 wins in a season.

But yeah, picking the right team will be tricky. Even if the team can be a contender, it will be difficult to turn the fight in your favour as Alonso has shown. And not always is McLaren or Ferrari the guarantee for winning a WDC.

Button won his WDC in an ex-Honda, but no WDC's in McLaren.
Alonso won in Renaults, but not in McLaren or Ferrari so far.
In the last 8 years only twice has the WDC been won by a Ferrari or McLaren driver. Other WDC's - 3 to RBR, 2 to Renault, 1 to Brawn.

Vettel is highly rumoured to join Ferrari one day. Can he break the drought and become a regular WDC-winner in another team - Ferrari - as well? Or will we see a new incredible team emerging Red Bull-style, so that Vettel falls short and Hulkenberg wraps up multiple WDC's in, say, Monster Energy Racing.

[Zava]

I dont think he will get to 7.
Maybe 5....
You would think his performance level may drop off when he gets to say 30 and lots of younger guys established.

yup, the same happened with Alonso for example.
oh wait...

[man]

Wouldn't surprise me at all if he does manage it. Super team and driver.

[kosmic33]

yup, the same happened with Alonso for example.
oh wait...

You could be right there, Alonso hasn't won a championship since he was 25 and oh my god, thats what age Vettel is now!!!!!

[Disgrace]

In the last 8 years only twice has the WDC been won by a Ferrari or McLaren driver. Other WDC's - 3 to RBR, 2 to Renault, 1 to Brawn.

How interesting, never thought of it like that.

[F1Champion]

If Kimi was in a McLaren, I would vote no but it is Alonso and Vettel for another 2 years at least before Hamilton can come back, that could easily be 5 titles.

[Rikhart]

Winning WDC´s is extremely exhausting, especially as close as this years was. Lets see how he hangs on at the top I also wonder how much longer newey will keep going/move to another team. You just cant predict the future, but he does have a good shot at making it 4 in a row with regulation freeze.

[Anderis]

Hopefully Ham, but Lady Luck doesn't seem to like him.

I would say he was in very good relationship with her for a while. 2008 is probably the most lucky title I had seen since I watch F1 (not too long though). He won Monaco GP that year only due to that he had punctured after his own mistake and was forced to pit before SC period, unlike other frontrunners and took the advantage from it. His car and race team showed superior reliability compared to Massa's. And that's all in the season which he has won by 1 point. He couldn't complain for his luck in 2007 too. And overall too. He was given a chance to drive for himself in the top car from the beginning of the career. That's quite lucky on it's own. I still think he needs more seasons like 2012 to change the overall picture. I still rate him more lucky than unlucky over the whole carrer, although I must admit it wouldn't be fair if he is still without WDC. But 2008 was not the year when he deserved it IMO*

*- I've ranked Hamilton as the best driver of the 2012 in another thread if someone is going to think I'm Lewis' hater!

Back on topic, I think Vettel has the chance to overhaul Schumi. He can still be here in around 15 years. That means that he can win one season out of three and still get 8 titles together! If my favourites can't fight for titles in next couple of years, I wish him so. It's fascinating to see a sportsman becoming the most titled ever in his sport if you can watch his whole career. For the same reason I support Schlierenzauer in Ski Jumping. I've seen their first appearances in F1/Ski Jumping World Cup and realised quite quickly they can be the next big thing. Although I must admit I was a bit sceptical about Vettel until mid 2008. But since then I had no doubt he could be a multiple WDC and it's fine when reality proves you right.

[rasul]

I would say he was in very good relationship with her for a while. 2008 is probably the most lucky title I had seen since I watch F1 (not too long though). He won Monaco GP that year only due to that he had punctured after his own mistake and was forced to pit before SC period, unlike other frontrunners and took the advantage from it. His car and race team showed superior reliability compared to Massa's. And that's all in the season which he has won by 1 point. He couldn't complain for his luck in 2007 too. And overall too. He was given a chance to drive for himself in the top car from the beginning of the career. That's quite lucky on it's own. I still think he needs more seasons like 2012 to change the overall picture. I still rate him more lucky than unlucky over the whole carrer, although I must admit it wouldn't be fair if he is still without WDC. But 2008 was not the year when he deserved it IMO*

*- I've ranked Hamilton as the best driver of the 2012 in another thread if someone is going to think I'm Lewis' hater!

Yes, I agree with you. But this year, Hamilton was probably the unluckiest driver out there.

It's not that I really think that Hamiton has a real chance to beat Schumi's record. It's just a wishful thinking, I guess. To tell the truth, I don't think it'll happen in the nearby future at all. Alonso and Kimi are too old to win 6-7 titles, and Ham is probably out of WDC fight for a few years. A 25-year-old Vettel, with his 3 WDCs, is the only one who has any real chance to do that. Hmm, we'll see.

[H2H]

I think trying to plot the graph of success just using the rear mirror is problematic. A lot of things can go wrong, especially in the extremely competitive world of F1 where luck also plays a major role. Said that he is certainly in the best position to do so of any driver post-Schumi and arguably pre-Schumi.