Yeah, but Federer gets 3 chances a year to win. If there was a World Championship in tennis, I guess it probably would be the tour finals.
4 chances.
And they play 7 matches to win a "grand slam", so I guess you could say roughly 2 slams = 1 WDC.
Anyway (chance of another wdc in brackets):Räikkönen - 33 - Not really in a "top" car in 2012, though it did win. Lotus seems to want him longer term, but I'm not sure Kimi will commit to more than another 3 or 4 years in F1.
(35%)Button - 33 - This last stretch in McLaren is likely his last in a good car. So he will probably have 3 more chances before retirement.
(50%)Alonso - 31 - He has 3 more years in the Ferrari guaranteed. As a better driver than Button, it is possible he could ring out 2 more seasons at at top team 2016 onwards.
(65%)Hamilton - 28 - 3 years at Mercedes are completely up in the air. Could be a good car. Could suck. After that he will be Alonso's current age, so he could be in the running for other top rides for at least 4 years.
(75%)Maldonado - 27 - Sitting at a midfield Williams, will be in his 30s by 2016 when big moves are likely happening in top teams. Hasn't done enough to be front of mind for a 2014 move. Not yet anyway.
(20%)Rosberg - 27 - 2013 is make or break. He showed up Schumacher, but his star could go out before he gets a good drive if the Merc is poor and Lewis beats him.
(20%)Vettel - 25 - Has Newey in hand and will be at RBR until 2016. At that time he will be the current age of Hamilton. I'd say 10 years more in top teams barring injury or a loss of motivation.
(90%)Hülkenberg - 25 - Impressive in 2012 and was good on occasion in 2010. Needs a top team seat, but Massa and Webber are looking spent so it is there for the taking. Good words spoken about him. Has 5+ years in F1 to do it, and possibly up to 10 if he finds a top team.
(70%)Ricciardo - 23 - Showed up Vergne despite the points saying otherwise. Helmut can be classified somewhere between a fickle asshole and a bag of dicks, so it is no guarantee Dan will land in the RBR seat. However I think he looks good enough for a punt when Massa and Webber depart. Could have a full decade to win.
(30%)Perez - 22 - In McLaren at such a young age, he has at least a decade to convert. His consistency is unknown but he looks fast and has a team behind him, unlike Heikki.
(85%)
Edited by Jimisgod, 20 January 2013 - 15:51.