I averaged out the qualifying results for the top driver in Melbourne for the entire length of this set of regulations (the past four years, three for Caterham and Marussia), used this to rank the teams in each qualifying 1-11, averaged out the position over the years, and got the following pecking order:
7.5 Force India
7.5 Toro Rosso
For teams that were tied (Such as Ferrari and Lotus, and Force India and Toro Rosso) I took the highest qualifying position to decide which team went ahead. In the case of Ferrari and Lotus, this was both third, and as such I took the highest average qualifying position for both drivers, which in this case was Alonso 3rd and Massa 5th in 2010. For Force India and Toro Rosso the highest was 9th, for Force India in 2012.
Admittedly these results can be interpreted in a variety of ways, with certain teams changing drivers over the years, and as the results only take in the top driver, this can also skew the results. It also doesn't take into account the posibility of a team having a really-off year (such as Ferrari last year). In such cases where the teams are very close on average, such as McLaren and Mercedes, where both teams have an entirely different driver line-up to 2009, these could swap, and this also includes Lotus and Ferrari, who have almost entirely different line ups, and are tied on points.
Now obviously many will complain that I didn't include second driver results, so as such I added together the team's qualifying positions (e.g. if a team had a front-row lockout they got 3 points, a 9th and 10th would be 19 points, etc.), and then I used those numbers to rank the teams per year 1-11. If a team was tied on points I used the highest qualifying position for that team in that year. I then averaged out each year as before:
6.75 Toro Rosso
7.5 Force India
Overall not too many changes - McLaren and Mercedes have swapped, Ferrari is now clear of Lotus, and Toro Rosso and Force India have swapped.
Interpret how you will! And yes, I've counted Brawn as Mercedes. I will not be making a calculation based on driver performances (ie using Jenson's results from Brawn and McLaren, Alonso's from Renault and Ferrari etc.) and will not be doing pre-2009 estimates. The reason for this is that only 7 drivers have records for the past four years in Melbourne, and I don't think pre-2009 data is relevant for team predictions.
Edited by mattferg, 25 February 2013 - 08:15.