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Malaysian GP: Strategy-killer


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#1 Forma1

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 11:20

Maybe you think I am crazy, but I love Formula-1 and the current tyre sitatution. I love having three pit stops, it always spices things up. (Of course I do this as far as it is safe).

I have been pondering how many pit stops the teams will be forced to do if it's dry.
Lotus and Red Bull clearly have been playing around the tyres cos they thought four stops would be the way to go hence they saved all of their 4 new sets of hard compound.
At first I would go for a three-stops.

Pro:
-the pit sraight is quite long and the others rush down the long straight at 300 km/h while you are stuck in the pit
-you can end up being stuck in trafic after your first pit stop
-you can start the race on hard so you can extend your first stint compared to the scenario if the Q3 would have been completed on the medium
-the rain is a big threat, if you go for less stops there is a higher chance to luck in the rain, if you do more stops it is more likely to have been forced to do another stop after your normal one once the rain hits the track
-the medium seems to have quite a good degradation, I mean it is not that worse compared to the hard

Contra:
-RB did race sim this morning and they completely chewed up their hard tyres after 10-11 laps (on maximum fuel load)

My ideal strategy would be:
1. stint: 1-13 hard
2. stint: 14-30 hard
3. stint: 31-48 hard
4. stint: 49-56 medium.

Of course it seems to be pretty aggressive at the second stint.

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#2 Sin

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 11:23

Maybe you think I am crazy, but I love Formula-1 and the current tyre sitatution. I love having three pit stops, it always spices things up. (Of course I do this as far as it is safe).

I have been pondering how many pit stops the teams will be forced to do if it's dry.
Lotus and Red Bull clearly have been playing around the tyres cos they thought four stops would be the way to go hence they saved all of their 4 new sets of hard compound.
At first I would go for a three-stops.

Pro:
-the pit sraight is quite long and the others rush down the long straight at 300 km/h while you are stuck in the pit
-you can end up being stuck in trafic after your first pit stop
-you can start the race on hard so you can extend your first stint compared to the scenario if the Q3 would have been completed on the medium
-the rain is a big threat, if you go for less stops there is a higher chance to luck in the rain, if you do more stops it is more likely to have been forced to do another stop after your normal one once the rain hits the track
-the medium seems to have quite a good degradation, I mean it is not that worse compared to the hard

Contra:
-RB did race sim this morning and they completely chewed up their hard tyres after 10-11 laps (on maximum fuel load)

My ideal strategy would be:
1. stint: 1-13 hard
2. stint: 14-30 hard
3. stint: 31-48 hard
4. stint: 49-56 medium.

Of course it seems to be pretty aggressive at the second stint.



I would put the option somewhere in the middle, so if it fails you you can still try to make it up on hard, then again I'm no expert... also I am pretty sure it will rain tomorrow

#3 Clatter

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 11:35

Teams might do a split strategy depending on the track position of their drivers or if they have a sacrificial driver.

#4 KnucklesAgain

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 14:18

For IntelligentF1 it looks like RB will 4-stop, their hard tyres seem to go after 10-12 laps: Saturday update with FP3 data

Posted Image

And what do we see? The Red Bulls are about where Webber’s runs were yesterday, but they don’t look like going much beyond 10-12 laps. Which is a four stopper! With running as few tyres as possible in qualifying, they aren’t looking good for the race. Mind you, we all thought that about Mercedes in China last year…


More at the link.

Edited by KnucklesAgain, 23 March 2013 - 14:18.


#5 apoka

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 15:07

Going by the graph, Hulk and Merc look strong. On the other hand, it seems very strange not to have any deg (and Hulk himself wasn't that optimistic in his interview).

#6 KnucklesAgain

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 15:16

Going by the graph, Hulk and Merc look strong. On the other hand, it seems very strange not to have any deg (and Hulk himself wasn't that optimistic in his interview).


Generally the problem with this event is that there is precious little good data to go by, and IntelligentF1 makes all kinds of disclaimers in the article. About Hulk:

Fast, consistent, good on the tyres. I think that the big teams must be hoping that he is running light, as this is the best long run we have in the ‘first stint’ pace bracket. Seem to recall Sauber did quite well here last year, and are good on their tyres. Not sure that this is representative, but I will be watching out for progess from Hulkenburg in the early laps to see whether there is anything in it. An interesting one.



#7 jee

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Posted 23 March 2013 - 15:33

I would put the option somewhere in the middle, so if it fails you you can still try to make it up on hard, then again I'm no expert... also I am pretty sure it will rain tomorrow


The reason I would not do this, if it starts raining at some point and intermediates are used, the option compound must no longer be used.
This could play out to those starting on prime and waiting for a late pit stop to use the options.