26 replies to this topic

[sopa]

What do you think, how will the championship order change by the end of the year? Which drivers or teams move up, which move down, which stay put?

Current rankings:
1.Vettel
2.Raikkonen
3.Hamilton
4.Alonso
5.Webber
6.Massa
7.Grosjean
8.di Resta
9.Rosberg
10.Button
etc

1.RBR
2.Lotus
3.Ferrari
4.Mercedes
5.Force India
6.McLaren
7.STR
8.Sauber
etc

[Sakae]

This is going to be a weird year; I see a headline already that McLaren is resisting calls for his team to switch focus on 2014 (and give up on 2013). That's even before first EU race. Difficult. I think Seb has a chance for a fourth title, despite that Ferrari is for now a best overall machinery package.

Edited by Sakae, 23 April 2013 - 15:11.

[Seanspeed]

Alonso to come up. Lewis to drop. Button to come up. Di Resta down a couple.

Mclaren up. Force India down one.

[2ms]

I think it's fairly evident the most well-rounded and competitive car is the F138, but the results don't reflect it yet because of accidents and now mechanical failure in the last race. They are good drivers so I dont expect continued trouble with accidents. They also are generally one of the most reliable teams, so I don't expect continued poor reliability. So I expect Ferrari to move up a lot quickly. Additionally, depending on whether or not they will ever get a title sponsor, we may see Lotus run out of development capacity like they did last year.

Edited by 2ms, 23 April 2013 - 15:17.

[Wander]

Top three will be the same as last year, Vettel obviously taking the title again. Constructors top 3 will stay as it is unless Ferrari overtakes Lotus for second. Mclaren will take 5th in the standings, but no more than that. Hulkenberg will take Sauber to 7th.

That's really all the interesting bits. I don't expect big changes in the current order of top 10 drivers. Nobody's going to move more than 1 place up or down unless Merc really start to suck again (a possibility certainly worth considering).

E: Didn't notice that Alonso was actually below Hamilton right now. He could rise up to two positions breaking my previous rule. But certainly no more than that.

Edited by Wander, 23 April 2013 - 15:19.

[sopa]

Ok, I make a prediction.

Final standings of 2013, +/- compared to current standing.
1.Vettel =
2.Alonso +2
3.Raikkonen -1
4.Webber +1
5.Hamilton -2
6.Button +4
7.Massa -1
8.Grosjean -1
9.Perez +2
10.Rosberg -1

1.RBR =
2.Ferrari +1
3.Lotus -1
4.Mercedes =
5.McLaren +1
6.Force India -1
7.Sauber +1
8.STR -1

[SpaMaster]

What do you think, how will the championship order change by the end of the year? Which drivers or teams move up, which move down, which stay put?

Current rankings:
1.Vettel
2.Raikkonen
3.Hamilton
4.Alonso
5.Webber
6.Massa
7.Grosjean
8.di Resta
9.Rosberg
10.Button
etc

Hamilton would move down to 4th or even less depending on what McLaren do with their car.
I have no idea what would happen with the top 3. Any of them may win.

1.RBR
2.Lotus
3.Ferrari
4.Mercedes
5.Force India
6.McLaren
7.STR
8.Sauber
etc

I expect McLaren to move up to 5th, if possible even to 4th.

RB could win the WCC again only because they may have a better no.2 than those of Ferrari and Lotus. However, if Massa and Grosjean could drive as well as they have shown recently, that could change.

[undersquare]

Hard to see Vettel losing it, unfortunately. Then Kimi, Lewis and Nando could finish in any order, quite close together. I think Rosberg will climb up the order, and Jense too. Webber does have grit but I wouldn't be surprised to see his head drop a little as the season goes on.

Among teams I reckon Massa will continue to have several bad weekends and hold Ferrari back, Grosjean too for Lotus. McLaren will come back as the car improves and Checo settles in, to overtake FI. Nico will lift Mercedes if the reliability improves for him and they shake off the racing rust.

So my guess is

Vettel
Alo/Raik/Ham
Webber/Ros/But
Massa/Gros

RBR
Merc/SF
Lotus
Mac
FI

[KavB]

I actually think Hamilton will drop below Massa. The Ferrari is quicker than the Merc, and while Massa hasn't had the results yet, he has proven he can drive this car. While I do think Mercedes will keep 4th, I don't think they will be able to keep their pace for the entire season, especially if McLaren get on top of their troubles.

[nada12]

I don't see Hamilton keeping pace with Raikkonen, Alonso and Vettel, as I expect Merc will go backwards again in the second half. The rest is more or less already shuffled reasonably, aside from McLaren who will of course climb in both standings. Too early for me to project the top 3.

[apoka]

The ranking could change significantly with the Barca upgrades and possibly modified tyres. (Someone had to say it.)

[undersquare]

I actually think Hamilton will drop below Massa. The Ferrari is quicker than the Merc, and while Massa hasn't had the results yet, he has proven he can drive this car. While I do think Mercedes will keep 4th, I don't think they will be able to keep their pace for the entire season, especially if McLaren get on top of their troubles.

If we look at the results so far there are two factors: reliability, and the drivers. There are four top drivers at the moment and they are the ones consistently there at the top week in week out. Massa may have some good events but over the season he will not get a look in.

[ScuderiaSV1]

I agree with several others who stated that the F138 is currently the 'best' overall package. Their reliability has been bullet proof since at least the beginning of 2012 and I expect the DRS misfortune of Alonso to be a one-off event. Their qualifying pace has improved drastically. And their pace on Sunday is arguably second to none. They come off of the starting grid better than any other car on the grid. And their car looks quick in the wet and the dry. Overall, I think their package is the most competitive. Red Bull have not gotten on top of the tyres as well as Ferrari. And this may be the difference of bringing Hirohide Hamashima into the team last year..

With that being said: I think the title fight is between Vettel and Alonso. Alonso essentially has equalled his misfortunes from last year (two zero-point races through no fault of his own), but was able to bag a few points from Bahrain. As much as I'd like Kimi to win the title: I think the Lotus is all ready on the backfoot compared to Red Bull and Ferrari. And the lack of money may not allow them to properly equal Red Bull or Ferrari on pace.

WDC:
Alonso/Vettel
Raikkonen

WCC:
Ferrari (best package IMO)
Red Bull
Lotus
Merc
Macca

[flymo]

I boldly predict that the point totals will end up at precisely 4.75 times their current values, on average.

[fisssssi]

Alonso +3
Vettel -1

That's all I'm really looking forward to.

[Pothead4Philosopher]

WDC

Vettel/Kimi
Alonso
Massa/Webber
Button
Lewis/Nico/Perez/Gro

WCC

RBR
Ferrari/Lotus
McL
Merc/FI

Edited by Pothead4Philosopher, 23 April 2013 - 22:18.

[Spamilton]

1. VET
2. RAI
3. ALO
4. HAM

[Spamilton]

1. RBR
2. Ferrari
3. Lotus
4. Mercedes

[ChiltonsCats]

Vettel/Red Bull will romp away with it, behind that might be interesting though.

[Rybo]

ALO
VET
RAI/HAM

RBR
FERRARI
MERC/LOTUS

[halifaxf1fan]

Vettel
Alonso
Raikkonen

Webber
Grosjean

Hamilton
Rosberg
Massa
Sutil
Diresta

[Linear90]

What do you think, how will the championship order change by the end of the year? Which drivers or teams move up, which move down, which stay put?

Current rankings:
1.Vettel
2.Raikkonen
3.Hamilton
4.Alonso
5.Webber
6.Massa
7.Grosjean
8.di Resta
9.Rosberg
10.Button
etc

1.RBR
2.Lotus
3.Ferrari
4.Mercedes
5.Force India
6.McLaren
7.STR
8.Sauber
etc

Driver standings
1. Vettel
2. Alonso
3. Raikkonen
4. Grosjean
5. Webber
6. Hamilton
7. Massa
8. Button
9. Rosberg
10. Hulkenberg
11. Perez
12. DiResta
13. Sutil
14. Bottas
15. Vergne
16. Maldonado
17. Ricciardo

Team standings
1. Lotus
2. Red Bull
3. Ferrari
4. Mercedes
5. McLaren
6. Force india
7. Sauber
8. Toro rosso
9. Williams

Edited by Linear90, 24 April 2013 - 09:56.

[caso]

Not at all I hope, looks good so far.

No, Alonso will be higher up (second I guess) and Button should be in the top six. I also don't expect di Resta among the top ten.

Edited by caso, 24 April 2013 - 19:34.

[Zoetrope]

A lot of people writing totally McLaren off

I would go with

Drivers
1. Alonso/Vettel (+- 10 points)

2. Raikkonen

4. Hamilton/Webber (+- 10 points)

6. Massa/Button

8. Perez/Rosberg/Grosjean (+- 10 points)


Teams
1. RBR
2. Ferrari
3. Lotus
4. Mercedes
5. McLaren
6. Sauber/Force India (Sauber will catch up eventually)

[noikeee]

I'm not seeing an awful lot between Ferrari, RBR and Lotus at the front so expect the title to play out as a 3-way battle between Fred Seb and Kimi. Vettel to win, again.

Then there is going to be an almighty scrap between the #2s of said teams and both Mercedes drivers for 4th in the championship. Again there is very little between all of them and I expect them all to feature in contention for wins at some point, but not a title challenge.

Then there's Mac and Force India. At the moment FI is better, logic would however dictate Mac's immense development power will put them ahead in the standings, whereas by opposition FI's lack of manpower can't keep them with Mac let alone Merc and the likes above. I don't expect Mac to improve enough to catch the lot ahead however - maybe Button can beat a driver or two like Rosberg at the end, but not more.

Clearly behind there's Sauber, Williams and STR. Hulk seems by far the most competitive of this lot so he is going to outscore them all, but don't see him catching the Macs, FIs or the frontrunners. Anyone's guess who wins in the standings between Bottas/Maldonado/Ricciardo/Vergne. Gutierrez is looking like a disaster, at this rate won't last the season even with his backing.

Marussia/Caterham will need a race of major attrition and some luck to nick a point. Think Bianchi might just about do it.

[sopa]

I don't expect Mac to improve enough to catch the lot ahead however - maybe Button can beat a driver or two like Rosberg at the end, but not more.

I am fairly confident Button can mix it with Mercedes, Grosjean, Massa and MAYBE Webber. The latter is long shot though. Already atm Button is just 2 points behind Rosberg and for sure McLaren will develop the car much better than Mercedes.

I am suspicious I was kind to Hamilton for giving him 5th. Mercedes has dropped off really badly in the past. But Massa and Grosjean are too inconsistent to capitalize. I think Webber will though, especially if RBR has the fastest car at the final third of the season again.

Remember last year. Midway through the year Rosberg was a long way ahead of Massa, who barely had a few points on board. In the end Massa had smth like 122 and Rosberg dropped to ninth on 93.

Also worth mentioning last year Button was something like 8th or 9th midway through the season. Still ended up fifth.

We can predict, how can a random "boring" race without much action in the final third of the season look like. Let's say a dry Korean Grand Prix.

I'd guess smth like that.
1. Vettel, 2. Alonso, 3. Webber, 4. Button, 5. Raikkonen, 6. Massa, 7. Hamilton, 8. Grosjean, 9, Perez, 10. Rosberg.

So if this is a rough trend, we can make a guesstimate.

Edited by sopa, 24 April 2013 - 10:52.

[f1supreme]

It's too early to say, Upgrades and tyre changes may surprise us all.