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What do you actually expect to CHANGE in 2014 pecking order?


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#1 sopa

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 19:30

I get the impression many people are looking forward to 2014 rule changes with a hope that finally something changes. It is remembered that with a last radical change in 2009 powers shifted in F1. McLaren and Ferrari lost their monopoly they had in 07-08 and Red Bull became a constant frontrunner. Of course 2009 in isolation brought other surprises as well, like the Honda-Brawn standout season.

But now people are eagerly waiting. Some things haven't been changing for years.
The most important of them:
Vettel and Red Bull constantly winning championships.

Alonso is usually a runner-up. He was that in 2010 and 2012, perhaps in 2013 too. Of course it is too early to say, who is gonna be 2013 WDC, but hard to look past yet another Vettel-Alonso/RBR-Ferrari battle. Is there gonna be a change like 2009 broke the McLaren-Ferrari monopoly?

Will Mercedes finally become a championship-winning team?
Will McLaren get back to the top?
Lotus trails closely behind top teams - will they become a championship winner?
Will someone surprise 2009 Brawn-Red Bull-style, aka Force India or someone else by becoming a frontrunner?

Or should we not expect any significant change. Status quo remains and Vettel will take his FIFTH consecutive WDC with Alonso, Hamilton, perhaps Raikkonen and Rosberg being the next ones behind him.

A lot is talked about engines and the packages (ERS, etc). Are they going to make a main difference? Is it going to be an issue for some teams? If, say, Renault produces an inferior package, then Red Bull and Lotus won't be front-running teams and Mercedes and Ferrari will fight it out for the title? Is that what people are mostly hoping for if we are looking for a change? Or should we expect all big engine manufacturers to be at least reasonably good, because, well, they are big companies.

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#2 Nomore

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 19:57

I get the impression many people are looking forward to 2014 rule changes with a hope that finally something changes. It is remembered that with a last radical change in 2009 powers shifted in F1. McLaren and Ferrari lost their monopoly they had in 07-08 and Red Bull became a constant frontrunner. Of course 2009 in isolation brought other surprises as well, like the Honda-Brawn standout season.

But now people are eagerly waiting. Some things haven't been changing for years.
The most important of them:
Vettel and Red Bull constantly winning championships.

Alonso is usually a runner-up. He was that in 2010 and 2012, perhaps in 2013 too. Of course it is too early to say, who is gonna be 2013 WDC, but hard to look past yet another Vettel-Alonso/RBR-Ferrari battle. Is there gonna be a change like 2009 broke the McLaren-Ferrari monopoly?

Will Mercedes finally become a championship-winning team?
Will McLaren get back to the top?
Lotus trails closely behind top teams - will they become a championship winner?
Will someone surprise 2009 Brawn-Red Bull-style, aka Force India or someone else by becoming a frontrunner?

Or should we not expect any significant change. Status quo remains and Vettel will take his FIFTH consecutive WDC with Alonso, Hamilton, perhaps Raikkonen and Rosberg being the next ones behind him.

A lot is talked about engines and the packages (ERS, etc). Are they going to make a main difference? Is it going to be an issue for some teams? If, say, Renault produces an inferior package, then Red Bull and Lotus won't be front-running teams and Mercedes and Ferrari will fight it out for the title? Is that what people are mostly hoping for if we are looking for a change? Or should we expect all big engine manufacturers to be at least reasonably good, because, well, they are big companies.


Ferrari will win a lot WDC and WCC

#3 redreni

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 19:58

I get the impression many people are looking forward to 2014 rule changes with a hope that finally something changes. It is remembered that with a last radical change in 2009 powers shifted in F1. McLaren and Ferrari lost their monopoly they had in 07-08 and Red Bull became a constant frontrunner. Of course 2009 in isolation brought other surprises as well, like the Honda-Brawn standout season.

But now people are eagerly waiting. Some things haven't been changing for years.
The most important of them:
Vettel and Red Bull constantly winning championships.

Alonso is usually a runner-up. He was that in 2010 and 2012, perhaps in 2013 too. Of course it is too early to say, who is gonna be 2013 WDC, but hard to look past yet another Vettel-Alonso/RBR-Ferrari battle. Is there gonna be a change like 2009 broke the McLaren-Ferrari monopoly?

Will Mercedes finally become a championship-winning team?
Will McLaren get back to the top?
Lotus trails closely behind top teams - will they become a championship winner?
Will someone surprise 2009 Brawn-Red Bull-style, aka Force India or someone else by becoming a frontrunner?

Or should we not expect any significant change. Status quo remains and Vettel will take his FIFTH consecutive WDC with Alonso, Hamilton, perhaps Raikkonen and Rosberg being the next ones behind him.

A lot is talked about engines and the packages (ERS, etc). Are they going to make a main difference? Is it going to be an issue for some teams? If, say, Renault produces an inferior package, then Red Bull and Lotus won't be front-running teams and Mercedes and Ferrari will fight it out for the title? Is that what people are mostly hoping for if we are looking for a change? Or should we expect all big engine manufacturers to be at least reasonably good, because, well, they are big companies.


2009 saw radical changes to aero rules. And there were a number of different factors that conspired against the 2008 frontrunners that made them lose the clear advantage they'd had: Their KERS projects took up a lot of the resources they would ordinarily have used to do concurrent 2008 development and 2009 design work, but KERS did not give them any advantage early on because they underestimated how much they would have to shift weight distribution to the front axle as a result of the changed contact patch ratio front to rear that arose from the change to slicks. Teams without KERS were able, due to the minimum weight increase, to run a lot of extra ballast which gave the Brawn and Red Bull cars a much better balance. Ferrari and Mclaren ran KERS from the start but it meant they didn't have enough balast to play with and couldn't exploit the potential of the front tyres. Mclaren and Ferrari also failed to pursue the double diffuser development route, which turned out to be the wrong decision.

2014 will not see such dramatic mechanical and aero regulation changes. It will see the return of competition in the area of engine performance and economy, which makes things more predictable in a way, inasmuch as if the Mercedes engine is crap, for example, all the Mercedes-engined teams are likely to fall down the pecking order (which would be a worry for Mclaren in particular). I, for one, hope the Renault is rubbish and the Ferrari is great but, unless somebody has seen something which I've missed, I don't think we've got any clues yet as to how the different powerplants will compare?

#4 g1n

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 19:59

I remember last year around mid point they have cancelled (or deferred) a lot of technical changes? so I doubt 2014 will be much different to what people think.

#5 SpaMaster

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 20:01

Apart from the engine and related package rules, is there such a vast change in the chassis itself? I am not sure if 2014 is such a big change in terms of chassis.

With 2014 engine aimed at being much more efficient, I suspect Renault would do well there, if not better than others. Unlike other road car manufacturers (in F1), Renault has always placed a premium on engine efficiency and it has been a philosophy for them. Their partner Nissan are among the most efficient engine manufacturer. Granted the new F1 engine is an altogether different ball game, but I expect Renault to hold pretty steady here.

Mercedes would be punting big time on the new rules. If 2014 happens to be another 2013 or 2012, the name of the team would change at the very least (Mercedes leaving), if not the team as we know folding. Not necessarily they will shine, but they would taking more risks and spening a lot more.

#6 Anderis

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 20:11

Well, engines are completely new and this alone requires quite a lot of fundamental changes in the car from both mechanical and aerodynamical (cooling etc.) side.

There will be also some pure aerodynamical changes in front wing (narrower), nose (lower) and exhaust (simplified) area. Not as big as in 2009, but together with engine change, I think next year's cars will have to be pretty much new concepts and pecking order may change a lot.

#7 sopa

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 20:26

I think next year's cars will have to be pretty much new concepts and pecking order may change a lot.


What is "a lot"? Let's say Red Bull?
Will it mean that instead of running away with it like in 2011 they will have a slow start like in 2012, yet fight for the title? Or they will be way off and come only to finish WCC third or fourth like Ferrari and McLaren did in 2009?

Second half of 2009 till now has been described as a RBR-Newey era. Despite small blips like early 2012 their aerodynamics have been rated as superb all along. Will we get a new benchmark team? Can it be Mercedes? Or Ferrari?

We can take another examples of rule changes in the past, which marked an end of an era.
2005 - tyres that had to last the whole race. Ferrari, who had won five titles in a row, disappeared completely with Bridgestones. And were a long way off the titles.

1998 - Williams, who had been in championship contention every year since 1991 - that's seven seasons in a row! - lost their place as a front-running F1 team. And even if they hadn't won every title in 1991-97, many people feel they at least had the best car in each of those years!

So the big question is - will 2014 mark the end of an era, a start of a new one? Or will the Newey-RedBull-Vettel era carry on?

#8 noikeee

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 20:43

I think there'll be a bit of a shuffle but not the big reset we saw in 2009.

Big teams closely integrated with the engine manufacturers will benefit this time. I am expecting one of either Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari to luck into a dominant car depending on whichever engine is most powerful/efficient. Lotus and McLaren have an handicap because they're not works teams, but may still do well and challenge for the title if Renault or Mercedes have a considerably stronger engine than the opponents. That being said, I think McLaren have much bigger resources than Lotus who are vastly overachieving under current regs, and whom I expect to go back to midfield.

I would also not be surprised at all if one of Force India, Sauber, Williams, Toro Rosso overachieve and are in contention for podiums, if they pick up an innovative concept like the 2009 diffuser or just luck into something closer to the optimal performance under the new regs. But no more than occasional podiums.

Marussia and Caterham haven't given any indication they're actually serious and capable of blending with the midfield, even under this scenario which in theory would also benefit them. I think they're just way down in too many areas. I can only imagine them breaking out into midfield if the engine advantage proves very big and they luck out into having the right engine supplier.

Edited by noikeee, 15 June 2013 - 20:44.


#9 sopa

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 21:11

I would also not be surprised at all if one of Force India, Sauber, Williams, Toro Rosso overachieve and are in contention for podiums, if they pick up an innovative concept like the 2009 diffuser or just luck into something closer to the optimal performance under the new regs. But no more than occasional podiums.


That sounds like 2012.:D

#10 redreni

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 21:53

What is "a lot"? Let's say Red Bull?
Will it mean that instead of running away with it like in 2011 they will have a slow start like in 2012, yet fight for the title? Or they will be way off and come only to finish WCC third or fourth like Ferrari and McLaren did in 2009?

Second half of 2009 till now has been described as a RBR-Newey era. Despite small blips like early 2012 their aerodynamics have been rated as superb all along. Will we get a new benchmark team? Can it be Mercedes? Or Ferrari?

We can take another examples of rule changes in the past, which marked an end of an era.
2005 - tyres that had to last the whole race. Ferrari, who had won five titles in a row, disappeared completely with Bridgestones. And were a long way off the titles.

1998 - Williams, who had been in championship contention every year since 1991 - that's seven seasons in a row! - lost their place as a front-running F1 team. And even if they hadn't won every title in 1991-97, many people feel they at least had the best car in each of those years!

So the big question is - will 2014 mark the end of an era, a start of a new one? Or will the Newey-RedBull-Vettel era carry on?


Well 2005 was about the tyre war as you say, and as far as we know there will still be a single supplier in F1 next year. There were significant regulation changes in 1998 with narrower cars, grooves etc but the rise of Mclaren and the fall of Williams can be attributed to Williams losing its works engine deal, and of course Mclaren's works deal with Mercedes starting to gel. Plus the fact that Newey was jumping ship and wasn't involved in the design of the 1998 Williams. Apart from those teams I don't recall the pecking order changing that radically in 1998.

In 2014 I would be surprised if the engine performance playing field is equal at first. It certainly won't be as equal as it is now. It could lead to a significant difference between qualifying and race performance as well, if somebody builds an engine that gives superior performance when you run it full rich in qualy, but has to be de-tuned and leaned heavily to make it to the end of the race on the available energy. So engines will be crucial, but teams will have to remember the lessons of 2009 and not forget aero. Might be an advantage in it for the teams that don't tend to generate quite so much downforce, though. Force India tend to have a quite slippery, low drag car most seasons. If their engine turns out to be one that's good on power but weak on economy, the lower drag configuration reduces the energy needed to complete the race. This always baffles me when F1 rulemakers talk about economy and road relevance - if I wanted to wreck the fuel economy on my Toyota Yaris I would put an F1-style rear wing on it. Maybe limiting the energy available to complete the race will discourage the practice of trading masses of drag for masses of downforce, and improve the prospects for close racing as well?

#11 ray b

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 21:55

Renault best turbo motor builder of the current bunch
so a plus for RB and lotus


Mercedes unknown in building a turbo race motor but has the people and cash to do it right

Ferrari kind of sucks at building turbo motors but also has the cash and perhaps the people to get it right this time

unknowns are fuel load use and overall reliability/power and useful power band


if one builder gets power and a useful power band with reliability and decent fuel use look out
but I dough any one will get all 4 right out of the box
more likely 2 of 4 or maybe 3 of 4 at the start of the season will be the trick

#12 Blinkandimgone

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Posted 15 June 2013 - 23:08

To be honest a wild guess over engines. but overall my money is on the people that expoloit those rules the best there is Ross brawn and Adrian newey

Edited by Blinkandimgone, 15 June 2013 - 23:10.


#13 Kelateboy

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 11:18

My bet is on RBR to continue the dominance in the new V6 turbo era. Renault will not get their engine wrong as they did with their underpowered powerplant in 2007 during the early days of engine homologation.

#14 Disgrace

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 11:59

The initial pecking order will depend more on engines than aero, but it won't take too long for that novelty to wear off.

#15 Nomore

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 12:08

My bet is on RBR to continue the dominance in the new V6 turbo era. Renault will not get their engine wrong as they did with their underpowered powerplant in 2007 during the early days of engine homologation.


I think it is more your desire ... Sorry to disappoint you, but it will not happen...

save this thread and we will read it in the end of 2014-2018 era.


#16 Lights

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 15:21

Red Bull to fall back.




Lol, just kidding.

#17 Cascade

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 18:49

Mercedes powered cars will dominate the first few races of 2014. Expect to see Mercedes, Force India, Williams and McClaren all dominating the top 10. Then there'll be Ferarri and Lotus, closely matched behind.

#18 charly0418

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 18:54

Blown diffusers will be back in 2014. Remember who dominated those?


Yeah, it's gonna be 2011 all over again I think

#19 Zava

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 18:56

Blown diffusers will be back in 2014. Remember who dominated those?


Yeah, it's gonna be 2011 all over again I think

how will a single exhaust exiting over the gearbox blow the (outer edge of the) diffusers?

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#20 charly0418

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 19:50

how will a single exhaust exiting over the gearbox blow the (outer edge of the) diffusers?


that will be the trick for 2014 cars:

There will be a single exhaust, exiting down the centre of the engine cover, onto the rear wing. This will make exhaust blowing into the diffuser a huge challenge, but as the gains are so great it will be fascinating to see how the aerodynamicists manage to channel the air.


taken from http://www.jamesalle...change-in-2014/

#21 panzani

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 19:52

Back to the actual thread's subject, the answer is very simple: the top teams will remain the top teams, give it or take one at most.

#22 PayasYouRace

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 20:03

Mercedes powered cars will dominate the first few races of 2014. Expect to see Mercedes, Force India, Williams and McClaren all dominating the top 10. Then there'll be Ferarri and Lotus, closely matched behind.


Well I'd certainly like to see Williams back in the top ten on a regular basis. But if Red Bull drop back to 7th or worse overall I'll eat several hats. I don't expect Ferrari to be as low as 5th either.

#23 MikeV1987

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 20:12

I don't expect the pecking order to change much tbh, I think the big 3 "works" teams will remain at the top maybe McLaren too.

Edited by MikeV1987, 16 June 2013 - 20:13.


#24 onewingedangel

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 20:45

I think it's unlikely we will see as radical a change as 2009 where Brawn (Honda) and Red Bull went from lower midfield to front running teams.

Even if a team makes a mis-step, either missing a loophole or choosing the wrong concept, there should be enough development potential in the new rules that the bigger teams should be able to claw their way back over the course of the season.

I could see Toro Rosso taking a step forward with James Key now at the helm, and Lotus taking a step back if James Allison's departure is a sign of a deeper malaise.

McLaren, Sauber and Williams are the big question marks, to see whether this season is a one off for them and they are still capable of being as competitive as they were a year ago. Unless McLaren are fighting for a title I'd imagine they will put more focus into 2015 though, focusing on carry-over parts more than areas dependent on the engine and engine packaging, so could be at a disadvantage at years end in maximising their package.

Will also be interesting to see if the rules reset can get Caterham and Marussia into a more competitive position.

#25 RealRacing

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Posted 16 June 2013 - 23:43

The biggest change will come from engines and a variable that might shake things up a bit is reliability (which is a bad thing really as DNFs are not very fair or exciting ways to win or lose races and championships). Then again, given the great reliability of F1 engines in the last era, it may well be the case that most can get it right from the start. In that case, it´s safe to assume the usual top teams will be there or thereabouts again.

#26 aray

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 04:27

RB will again be clear frontrunner...0.5-1.0 sec ahead...whatever they will bring will be deemed legal.....

#27 Nemo1965

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 07:20


I don't think the order will change much, aerodynamics in F1 is much more important than engine-power, torque andsoforth these days. As far as I've understood the aerodynamics will be shook up a little, but not so much that the best aerodynamics will not rule enough any more.

#28 Skinnyguy

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Posted 17 June 2013 - 14:28

RB will again be clear frontrunner...0.5-1.0 sec ahead...whatever they will bring will be deemed legal.....


Funny how whining about RB has become as natural as breathing for some people :lol: Now I have the same feeling about this team that Vettel gave me before: it makes nay-sayers go SO mad that you have to love them doing well.

On topic, I don´t expect too much to change speed wise but I predict lots of teams having reliability gremlins for the first half of the season.